Who's Packing a Bag in 2026-27?

Which preseason Top 10 team is most likely to play the first weekend on the road?

Will Warren put up The Sucker Bet on the men’s side earlier this week. If you missed it, the idea is simple: history says at least one preseason AP Top 10 team will fall flat, so which one?

The women’s side needed its own version, but with a twist. In our sport, the real flop isn’t falling out of the rankings. It’s packing a bag for the first weekend.

The top 16 seeds host the first two rounds. If you start the year in the Top 10 and you’re getting on a plane for the first round in March, something went wrong. So I went back through every preseason AP Top 10 for the last 14 seasons, 2012-13 through last year. That’s 140 teams. Then I checked how each one actually finished: where it sat in the last AP poll before the tournament, and what seed it got on Selection Monday. I used two definitions:

• Packed a Bag: a 5 seed or worse, or no bid at all. No home games in March.
• Full Flop: unranked going into the tournament and/or a 7 seed or worse. This is Will’s bar for the men, so we can compare the two sports.

Here’s what came back.

The Numbers

• Teams pack a bag almost every year. 18 preseason Top 10 teams have failed to host across 13 tournaments, with at least one in 11 of those 13. It has happened in six straight tournaments.
• Full Flops are rare. Only 10 of 140 (7%) hit Will’s bar, averaging 0.71 per season. On the men’s side, it’s 2.3. In women’s basketball, chalk holds.
• The top three are bulletproof. Teams ranked 1, 2, or 3 in the preseason are 0-for-42. Not one of them has packed a bag. The preseason #1 has earned a 1 seed in 12 of 13 tournaments. The lone miss was 2023-24 LSU, which “fell” to a 3 seed.
• A top-five team has Full Flopped exactly once. 2015-16 Tennessee started at #4 and finished unranked as a 7 seed. Only two other top-five teams packed a bag: Texas A&M as a 6 seed in 2014-15 and Utah as a 5 seed in 2023-24.
• Spots 7 through 10 are where the suitcases come out. That group accounts for 14 of the 18 teams that packed a bag and 8 of the 10 Full Flops.
• But true collapses are almost nonexistent. Only three preseason Top 10 teams have fallen to a 9 seed or worse: 2020-21 Mississippi State (no bid), 2024-25 Iowa State (11 seed), and 2025-26 Tennessee (10 seed).
• And it’s getting worse. In the 10 seasons through 2021-22, there were five Full Flops, about one every two years. In the last four seasons alone, there have been five more. Bag-packers roughly doubled over the same stretch. Welcome to the portal era.

One more thing. The two repeat offenders in the data are Tennessee and NC State. Each has two Full Flops, and both did it last year: Tennessee went from #8 to a 10 seed, and NC State went from #9 to a 7 seed. Neither one is in this year’s Top 10. Will pointed out on the men’s side that there’s no Kentucky to pick on this year, and the same is true here. Our usual suspects are sitting this one out.

What Bag-Packers Have in Common

• Last March matters. A preseason Top 10 team coming off a 1 seed has packed a bag just 3 times in 44 tries (7%). Coming off a 2, 3, or 4 seed, they’ve packed a bag 10 of 61 times (16%). Teams that didn’t host the year before? 4 of 15 (27%).
• The danger isn’t bad teams. It’s good-but-not-great ones. Ten of the 17 bag-packers with a prior season in the data hosted on the 2-4 line the year before. They were good enough to get voted into the Top 10, but not good enough to have a cushion.
• And the portal raises the stakes. The jump in bag-packers lines up with the portal era, which is why the rosters below matter as much as the history.

So who fits? South Carolina, UConn, and Texas were all 1 seeds last March. Duke, Michigan, Louisville, Vanderbilt, LSU, and Iowa all hosted on the 2-4 line. USC was a 9 seed without JuJu.

Let’s get after it.

The Top Three: Leave the Suitcase in the Closet

1. South Carolina, 2. UConn, 3. USC
South Carolina got 23 of 31 first-place votes and is the preseason #1 for the fifth time in seven years. UConn has been in the top 10 of every preseason poll since 1994. History says these two are about as safe as it gets.

USC is the one I’d at least think about. A year ago, the Trojans entered the tournament unranked and got a 9 seed, while JuJu Watkins sat out after tearing her ACL in the 2025 tournament. Now she’s healthy, and they’re #3. Going from a 9 seed to a preseason top-three team is a big jump in expectations. But nobody in the 1-3 range has packed a bag in 14 years, and I won’t be the first to bet on it with JuJu back and that much talent around her. Moving on.

Four Through Six: Carry-On at Most

4. Duke
This is Duke’s highest preseason ranking since 2013, and they’ve earned it. The Blue Devils swept the ACC regular season and tournament titles last year and have made back-to-back Elite Eights. Toby Fournier (17.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg) is one of nine returners on a 14-player roster, and Kara Lawson added Aaliyah Crump (Texas) and four freshmen. The one question is whether the offense can be consistent against the ACC’s best defenses. Spot #4 has one bag-packer in 14 years, and it was Tennessee a decade ago. I’ll pass.

5. Michigan
This is the best preseason ranking in program history. Michigan was in the top 10 for the final 18 weeks last season, earned a 2 seed, and reached the Elite Eight. Olivia Olson and Syla Swords are juniors now. The catch: point guard Mila Holloway, who started all 35 games last year and averaged 12.3 points and 4.8 assists, is out indefinitely with a lower-leg injury. That’s the one thing that could actually make Michigan nervous. Spot #5 has never produced a Full Flop, though two teams from that slot have packed a bag. I still don’t think Michigan joins them, but it’s closer than it looked in the summer.

6. Texas
Texas was a 1 seed last year, and Madison Booker is back as a preseason AP All-American, named on 28 of 31 ballots. The roster is young, with five freshmen among its 14 players, and it already took two hits: Crump left for Duke, and Jada Bediako is out for the season. Lovisa Asbrink Hose (6-6) and Breya Cunningham (6-4) still give Texas size up front, and Vic Schaefer’s floor is very high. Spot #6 has one Full Flop in 14 years: 2020-21 Mississippi State, which missed the tournament entirely. Texas isn’t that.

Seven Through Ten: Check the Luggage

This is where history tells us to look, so I’ll spend the most time here.

7. Louisville
Louisville went 29-8, earned a 3 seed, and reached the second weekend for the first time in three years. The roster has 14 players, split right down the middle: seven back, seven new. The returners include Imari Berry, last year’s ACC Sixth Player of the Year, along with Tajianna Roberts, Mackenly Randolph, and Elif Istanbulluoglu. Jeff Walz added four transfers: Carys Baker (Virginia Tech), Zamareya Jones (NC State), Deniya Prawl (Tennessee), and Amiya Joyner (LSU). He also brought in three freshmen.

Louisville is also the only team in this group that’s packed a bag from the Top 10 before, and it has done it twice: 2012-13 (5 seed) and 2022-23 (unranked going into March, 5 seed). The early schedule includes UConn on November 15 and Texas on December 2. If both go badly, the first month could get ugly. The counterargument is experience. Randolph, Roberts, and Istanbulluoglu all started for last year’s second-weekend team, Berry was the ACC’s best sixth player, and all four transfers come from power-conference programs.

8. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt comes off a 29-5 season, a 2 seed, and its first Sweet 16 since 2008-09. Mikayla Blakes led the country at 27 points per game and is the SEC Preseason Player of the Year. Aubrey Galvan was SEC Freshman of the Year. Seven players are back on a 12-player roster, and Shea Ralph added Mia Woolfolk (Georgia) and Vernell Atamah (Northwestern State), plus three freshmen: Olivia Jones, Jhai Johnson, and Sther Ubaka.

This team also has size. Aalyah Del Rosario (6-6), Aiyana Mitchell (6-4), and Johnson (6-4) lead a frontcourt where six players stand 6-3 or taller. The real question is how Blakes’ role changes with more scorers around her. I worry a little about expectations getting ahead of reality. But a team with the nation’s leading scorer and seven returners doesn’t usually go from a 2 seed to a road game.

9. LSU
LSU has 11 players on its roster, and six of them are new. Jada Williams (Iowa State), Laila Reynolds (Florida), and Chloe Larry (Tennessee Tech) came in through the portal; Noa Morro arrives from the pro ranks in Spain; and Lola Lampley and Anna Minaeva are freshmen. Only five players are back: MiLaysia Fulwiley, Mikaylah Williams, ZaKiyah Johnson, Grace Knox, and Meghan Yarnevich. Flau’jae Johnson, Jada Richard, Bella Hines, Kate Koval, and Amiya Joyner (now at Louisville) are all gone.

The stars are still there. Fulwiley and Mikaylah Williams are as good a pair as anyone has. But look at the frontcourt: Knox (6-3), Morro (6-3), Minaeva (6-5), and Yarnevich (6-0). Only one player is taller than 6-3, and that’s a freshman. LSU will lean heavily on Knox, and Minaeva and Morro will need to play critical minutes.

10. Iowa
Iowa was a 2 seed last year, a big jump from the 6 seed in Jan Jensen’s first season, and the Hawkeyes have hosted in four of the last five tournaments. The roster has 11 players, and six are new: Dani Carnegie, Jocelyn Faison, Amari Whiting, and Bria Medina, plus freshmen McKenna Woliczko and Ella Stromdahl.

The core is what makes Iowa dangerous. Ava Heiden (6-4) returns at center, giving Iowa productive size, while Chazadi Wright and Taylor Stremlow are back on the perimeter. The newcomers aren’t just depth, either. Carnegie and Whiting are experienced guards who should step right into big roles, and Woliczko (6-2), the #6-ranked player in the 2026 class, should slide into the starting lineup at the 4 next to Heiden. If she isn’t ready right away, Journey Houston can hold that spot as a versatile wing/forward.

Iowa also built a tough schedule. That’s a risk while the newcomers gel, but it’s also the kind of résumé that earns an easier path in March if the Hawkeyes win those games.

The Bag Rankings

Most likely to pack a bag to least likely:

1. LSU: six newcomers and a thin frontcourt.
2. Iowa: six newcomers too, and a good top eight with little cushion behind it.
3. Louisville: half the roster is new; it’s done this twice before, and UConn and Texas come early.
4. Vanderbilt: seven returners and size, but this is new territory for expectations in Nashville.
5. Michigan: Olson and Swords are juniors now, but losing Holloway indefinitely hurts.
6. USC: the history says teams that didn’t host last year are the riskiest group, but nobody in the top three has packed a bag in 14 years. JuJu breaks the tie.
7. Duke: nine returners and back-to-back Elite Eights.
8. Texas: a 1 seed last year with Booker back.
9. UConn: preseason Top 10 every year since 1994 for a reason.
10. South Carolina: the preseason #1 has earned a 1 seed in 12 of 13 tournaments.

Most Likely to Pack a Bag: LSU (with Iowa right behind)

Let me be clear before the LSU and Iowa folks find me: I think both teams host in March. I’m not saying either one will fall apart. But if this list of ten produces a bag-packer, history and these rosters both point at the same two places.

Of the four teams in the 7-10 group, LSU and Iowa have the most new pieces to fit together: six newcomers each, on the group’s two smallest rosters. Louisville and Vanderbilt each bring back seven players and have real size up front.

I’m going with LSU, and here’s why.

The cushion is thinner than the reputation. Yes, Kim Mulkey has never sent an LSU team on the road in the first weekend. Five tournaments, five home games to kick off March. But look at the seeds: 3, 3, 3, 3, and then a 2 last year. Four of those five teams were two seed lines away from packing a bag.

The roster is more new than old. Six of LSU’s 11 players weren’t on the team last year, and only five are back. That’s a lot of chemistry to build in a hurry, and with 11 bodies, there’s little margin for error if someone gets hurt. Iowa is in the same boat, which is why it’s right behind. What separates them is up front.

The frontcourt is the soft spot. LSU has exactly one player taller than 6-3, and she’s a freshman. Every other team in the 7-10 group has at least two players 6-4 or taller. LSU will go as far as Fulwiley and Mikaylah Williams can carry it, but in the SEC, somebody has to hold up on the glass every night.

The schedule doesn’t let up. LSU gets UConn in Nashville, a road trip to North Carolina, and NC State in Fort Myers before SEC play even starts. Then comes the SEC, with seven teams in the preseason poll: South Carolina (#1), Texas (#6), Vanderbilt (#8), LSU (#9), Kentucky (#14), Ole Miss (#19), and Oklahoma (#21). Good teams lose games in that conference. The one thing working in LSU’s favor? If you believe the committee seeds logos, LSU has one of the best in the sport.

And the slot backs it up. The #9 spot has the worst track record in the dataset: three Full Flops and four bag-packers in 14 years.

Iowa is a very close second: six new faces is still six new faces, even with a core this good.

And here’s the kicker: this might be the year nobody packs a bag. Nine of these ten teams hosted last March, and a preseason Top 10 team that hosted the year before fails to host again only about one time in eight. The tenth is USC, who was a 9 seed without JuJu Watkins and now has her back. Run the math, and there’s roughly a one-in-five chance all ten are top-four seeds, which would be the first clean sweep since 2018-19.

So that’s the call. LSU is the most likely to pack a bag, Iowa is next, and I wouldn’t be shocked if neither does. Betting against Mulkey is usually how you lose money. But somebody usually packs a bag. Eleven of the last 13 tournaments say so.