Last year, one of my five or so favorite preseason posts we put up was one of my own: the Sucker Bet. That post used data from previous seasons to try and nail down which team, or teams, amongst the preseason AP Top 10 were most likely to 'flop', i.e., finish outside of the AP Top 25 and/or finish with a 7 seed or lower in the eventual NCAA Tournament.

As unusual as a combination this will sound to you before the season begins, it is a near certainty that at least one of the following ten teams will be a legitimate, serious disappointment, if not multiple of the following ten teams.

The stats, if you've forgotten, are summarized below.

  • For 21 straight years, at least one preseason AP Top 10 team has ended the year a 7 seed or worse. Last year's was Kentucky, who got a 7 seed and was unranked for much of the back half of the season. St. John's was on track to disappoint, but recovered well enough to earn a 5 seed and make the Sweet Sixteen.
  • On average, 2.3 preseason AP Top 10 teams either finish the year unranked or a 7 seed or lower. Last year actually dipped under this number somewhat, with Kentucky being the only true miss. In 2024-25, five preseason Top 10 teams ended up a 7 seed or worse.
  • Also on average, two preseason Top 5 teams flop every three years. None last year, but #1 Kansas (7 seed) and #3 UConn (8 seed) both did it the previous season.
  • You don't have Kentucky to pick on this year. This matters because Kentucky alone is responsible for five of the last 30 unranked/=< 7 seed performances by AP Top 10 teams since 2012.

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