Welcome to the weekend watchlist!
We're breaking down the top matchups of the weekend, every weekend.
Before we dive in, here are yesterday's top performances and today's watchability index.
Click on each projected score to get the full game preview in the Basket Under Review app.
Click here to scroll down to Sunday's games.
*KenPom spread is referenced in the article
Saturday, November 7
Toledo at Marshall (-1)
Huntington, WV | 2:00 PM ET | ESPN+
Real credit to our guy Tod Kowalczyk: not many coaches with a team that could win their conference - a conference that got two bids last year! - would go out and schedule their first three games on the road. Toledo probably hoped they wouldn't be 0-2 but here they are, with a solid and interesting Marshall team as their opponent coming off a 3PT%-aided demolition of Buffalo on opening night.
Both of these teams kinda have to play fast, as Toledo is awful again defensively and has to outscore its own misgivings while Marshall isn't a team I'm expecting much great shooting from and will be much more threatening in transition than in half-court. If Toledo can limit Marshall's transition game at all - which Buffalo could not - I think they have a good chance to steal their first win here. One major swing here is that I do believe in Marshall's defense as probably the best overall unit on the court, and Toledo has generally been much less effective at establishing a physical edge down low against defenses of decency. Would lean Marshall here with home-court advantage and with Toledo coming off of a pretty tough week of games and opponents. - Will Warren
UNC Wilmington (-3) at East Carolina
Greenville, NC | 2:00 PM ET | ESPN+
East Carolina has to figure out what to do with Patrick Wessler. UNCW’s 7-footer is the CAA’s top returning scorer and rebounder, and he opened with 14 points and 12 rebounds against Mount Olive. ECU’s opener ran through its perimeter players, with Kaseem Watson’s 17 leading four Pirates who scored at least 14. But the Pirates only played USC Upstate even on the boards, which doesn’t bode well against a team that can feed Wessler and crash the glass behind him.
ECU’s best counter is a backcourt that forced 20 Upstate turnovers, with point guard Cian Medley adding 11 assists. UNCW’s ball security drew criticism after its own opener, and it led a Division II team by only nine at halftime, so pressure from the Pirates’ guards could keep this closer than the talent gap suggests. The Seahawks also need CJ Luster II to keep hitting from outside after he made six threes against Mount Olive in his first game back from a season-long injury, since that keeps ECU from sagging off to help on Wessler. I like UNCW’s size over 40 minutes, as long as its guards hold up against the Pirates’ pressure. - Brian Rauf
VCU at Memphis (-2)
Memphis, TN | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN+
We've covered more than a few times on here the mystique of Underdog Penny, who won outright at Iowa State on opening night...but what about Home Favorite Penny? The actual spread was not available at the time of writing, but Home Favorite Penny is pretty bad at his job: 28-39-1 ATS (42%), including 10 straight-up losses over the last five seasons. Worth noting that only 11 of these games saw Penny favored by six or less, and these games went quite well (9-2 overall, 6-5 ATS), but Memphis's track record after a big win is scattershot at best.
Given how much they return it's wise-ish to expect VCU to be quite similar to last year's VCU, which was great at getting to the line and at getting to the rim in general. Memphis went 5-10 last year against teams in the top 100 of offensive FT Rate (8-9 against all others), and against top-75 offenses, Memphis's defense took a pretty severe step back, sitting 358th (!) in defensive FT Rate and getting obliterated on the defensive glass. As such I think VCU has the shot volume edge, and unless Memphis plans on enjoying a +25% 3PT% edge again (they got outshot by 15% from 2!), I wouldn't be surprised at all by a VCU straight-up win on the road. It would be pretty appropriate, to be honest. - Will Warren
Colorado vs. San Diego State (-2)
San Diego, CA | 3:30 PM ET | USA Network
Prior to Tuesday, the last time San Diego State played an 80 possession game in regulation was against Savannah State in 2016 under Steve Fisher. The Aztecs are also off a year where they ranked 57th in Average Offensive Possession Length, so while Fullerton definitely contributed to that tempo in the first game, I still expect San Diego State to push pace offensively with this new look unit. What made the Fullerton game so up and down was how uncharacteristically the Tecs did not get back on defense—typically one of the hallmarks of a Brian Dutcher scheme.
Colorado ran Abilene out of the gym in their opening game behind exceptionally torrid perimeter efficiency. The Buffs may also be in a dogfight to not end up on the bottom of the B12, so what is the likely median outcome for this team? If they shoot 52% from 3 and 64% from inside the arc like they did in their first game, sure, they will spring a couple upsets. You may also note that those are highly unsustainable numbers over any sort of meaningful sample. Colorado currently ranks 78th on KenPom, and even with the most ambitious jumps from their main returners, it is hard to find more ceiling compared to where they already sit.
The last time San Diego State has ranked this low on KenPom was the Malachi Flynn year in 2019 when they began the season at 97th but finished…6th overall. Their stock has never been cheaper, and it is important to note this game is technically listed as “Semi-Home” on KenPom. There is nothing ‘semi’ about this home spot. Pechanga is thirty minutes away from Viejas (one of the best West Coast HCAs) towards the coast and right next to Mission & Ocean Beach—hotbeds for SDSU alum.
Colorado will need to win on the boards behind their midmajor transfer duo of Justin Neely and Noah Fededersen, and the aggressiveness of the overloaded San Diego State packlineish defense will provide them opportunities to get on the weakside offensive glass. Could be a really interesting under the radar affair on a packed Saturday. -Gavin
UT Martin at IU Indy (-1)
Indianapolis, IN | 5:00 PM ET | ESPN+
The Euros versus the Speedsters, what a game we should have on Saturday in Indianapolis. IU Indy's insanely fast pace gets opponents into a game that barely looks like basketball at times, and most of UT Martin's players come from a FIBA system overseas that couldn't possibly be more different. The Skyhawks' players, who largely are playing their second actual college basketball game ever, may be in for culture shock.
UT Martin's defensive scheme is a 5-man switching system that is meant to fully cut off driving lanes. On the flipside, IU Indy's offensive system is built around a hub big man, which then runs cutters and handoffs through that big at the top of the key. Again, these teams couldn't be more different.
The Skyhawks do have a giant size advantage here, standing as the ninth-tallest team in the country. Considering this non-stop IU Indy pressure allowed copious rim baskets off the back end last year, that size at every position should make a big difference here. The counterpoint would be that pressure may force a ton of turnovers for a UT Martin team that was eighth-last nationally in that stat last year, but pardon the pun, there is lots of turnover on this new roster for Jeremy Shulman and Co.
One thing I can tell you is this game will be fast, very fast. But IU Indy giving a jumbo, physical squad like UT Martin with skilled guards Kaan Onat and Davi Remagen lanes to the basket off its pressure likely doesn't end well for the home team. - Matthew Winick
Nebraska (-6) vs. Providence
Uncasville, CT | 7:00 PM ET | FOX Sports 1
Nebraska is off the best year in its school's history but looked extremely underwhelming in the scrimmage season against SLU, BYU, and Kansas State. They proceeded to back that up with a 42-point drubbing of poor Le Moyne who also needed 14 minutes last game just to place the ball through the basket one time. Does that exonerate Corn totally? Probably not. Are they still likely better than what they showed in the preseason? Likely.
Providence is one of the trendier teams coming into the year, and I tend to think it is for good reason. While I will not get overly excited about slaughtering Pitt and GTech on the glass in games that don’t count, the Friars still gave a great account of themselves to the point where you see a buildable foundation under new coach Bryan Hodgson.
Nebraska being ranked 13th on KenPom is exceptionally rich even for the loftiest projections on this team. Losing four starters including the heartbeat and glue of your team last year in the form of Sam Hoiberg, in a system that requires familiarity, connectivity, and continuity, is not as easy of a plug-and-play operation. Belmont transfer Sam Orme, the likely heir to the Rienk Mast Playmaking Center, is a game time decision as someone whose health looms large for the upside of this offense with what he can do as a shooter and a passer.
The reality of any Nebraska game is that there will inherently be ~50% of all shots in the game taken from beyond the arc. Corn is one of the best rim denial defensive schemes in the country, and Hodgson has always coached offenses that jam it at the cup as good as anyone in the nation. If Nebraska takes away the rim like they are apt to do, as a Nate Oats disciple, Hodgson is happy to play the 3P shooting contest. That is also what plays into Nebraska’s hands when they are led by shooters like Pryce Sandfort and Braden Frager.
The more shots taken from the perimeter overall, advantage Cornhuskers. The more Providence can hold onto the ball and move Nebraska’s defense to open up catch & shoot opportunities, then the Friars have all the ability in the world to win this when you run real playmakers at the PF like Mela/Byrd. -Gavin
Maryland (-1) at Georgetown
Washington, D.C. | 7:30 PM ET | Peacock
Maryland outrebounded Bucknell 54-22 on Monday, and that physicality runs straight into Georgetown’s best player. Vince Iwuchukwu, a 7-foot-1 center, had 21 points and nine rebounds against Loyola, going 9-of-11 at the line, for a team that made 74% of its free throws last season. Pharrel Payne and 6-foot-10 freshman Baba Oladotun give Buzz Williams plenty of size to throw at him, but every foul they pick up on Iwuchukwu eats into the edge Maryland should have on the glass.
Neither team is likely to shoot its way out of trouble. Georgetown hit 7 of 26 threes in its opener after shooting 31.8% from three last season, and Maryland was a tenth of a point worse last year. That puts more on the guards. Jaland Lowe, healthy again after an injury-plagued year at Kentucky, scored 23 on 9-of-15 shooting. Andre Mills, Maryland’s best perimeter scorer, is coming off a 22-point, 11-rebound night.
The Terps also have to start faster than they did Monday, when Bucknell led 25-23 with seven minutes left in the first half. Maryland scored just 27 first-half points in last year’s loss to Georgetown, and a slow start is much harder to recover from when neither team shoots it well. - Brian Rauf
Sunday, November 8
Arkansas vs. Virginia (-3)
Washington D.C. | 1:00 PM ET | ESPN
Virginia has applied more defensive pressure on opponents, and against Drexel it forced 21 turnovers and won the fast-break battle 29-7. Arkansas guards Jordan Smith Jr. and Georgia transfer Jeremiah Wilkinson will have to handle that pressure, and they can make Virginia pay the other way too. The pair combined for eight of Arkansas’ 11 steals against UAPB, and the Hogs won the transition battle 23-2 after halftime, so whichever side handles the other’s pressure better should get a lot of easy baskets.
Inside, Virginia has the strength advantage with Thijs De Ridder. He’ll likely see a lot of Miikka Muurinen, a 7-foot, 220-pound freshman. Johann Grünloh, also a 7-footer, gives Virginia a rim protector against an Arkansas team that struggled to finish contested shots in its exhibition win over Gonzaga, the biggest frontcourt it has faced to date.
The Hogs have more raw talent, but the Cavaliers have more experience. That dichotomy should make for a fascinating game. - Brian Rauf
Butler at Boise State (-7)
Boise, ID | 2:00 PM ET | USA Network
Of the 20 players who saw the court in the first leg of the Butler vs. Boise State home-and-home last year, only four remain with their respective teams for this year’s matchup. With how much turnover these two teams have had since last year, the most familiarity is between two newcomers. Boise State’s Damari Wheeler-Thomas and Butler’s Treyson Anderson were teammates on North Dakota State’s NCAA Tournament team last year.
For the visiting Bulldogs, their overhaul included a head coaching change. Through the first two games of the Ronald Nored era, Butler’s offense has led the way with crisp ball movement, leading to historic levels of 3-point volume and efficiency for the program. The Bulldogs set a new program record for 3-point attempts in their 96-60 season-opening win over Lafayette, launching 44, then tied the program records for single-game made 3s (20) and assists (31) in their 99-65 win over FDU.
The competition level is about to increase, though. After facing back-to-back sub-340-rated KenPom teams, the Bulldogs will travel to face a Boise State program that has finished between No. 37 and No. 61 on KenPom in six consecutive seasons. Head coach Leon Rice has earned the benefit of the doubt, especially with the consistency of his program pillars; additionally, those core pillars combat directly with Butler’s style thus far:
Boise State’s season opener did not give much to project from. The Broncos beat a non-D1 opponent, West Coast Baptist, by 79 points, and saw 11 players log between 11 and 24 minutes. The Broncos may run a deep rotation, but probably not that deep. Positional size has always been a strength for Boise State, and it should be again. Albeit against a non-D1 foe, Boise secured a 60.0% offensive rebounding rate and a 95.6% defensive rebounding rate in its debut. Dovydas Butka (6-10), Bhan Buom (6-8), and Jerquarius Stanback (6-8) combined for 32 rebounds, next to stretch forward Spencer Ahrens (6-10), in the opener.
The backcourt will be a key area to watch for the Broncos, specifically as they hope for big jumps from returners Aginaldo Neto and Julian Bowie. The former dished eight assists on just one turnover in the season opener; he was a plus defender last year, and adding more offensive punch next to newcomer Wheeler-Thomas would be huge. Wheeler-Thomas and Pearson Carmichael are shooters to watch. - Lukas Harkins
Western Kentucky (-5) at Tennessee Tech
Cookeville, TN | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN+
This is very fun and exciting to me, as Western Kentucky has the unstoppable force of Teagan Moore versus the immovable object of Tobin Anderson's hard hedge that will look to get it out of Moore's hands at all costs. Hank Plona has continued his oddball work as WKU head coach, which is my kind way of saying I cannot figure out why Moore - 43 points in 42 minutes played so far! - is averaging 21 minutes a game. You kinda need to win now, pal!
WKU's entire thing is the primary break followed by what I guess you'd call dribble-drive offense in half-court. As such, the Hilltoppers still use ball screens but not as much as average and end up in isolation situations a lot. Moore is going to be more athletic than...everyone Tech can throw at him, so for once I would actually applaud Plona's staff if they can hunt 5+ ISOs like this one for Moore:
The problem is that I'm not sure Western Kentucky is really drawing these up on command as much as the other WKU players are asking Moore to go do his thing. Anderson has the coaching edge here, which makes this game a very informative preview of basically the entire Western Kentucky season: does having more talent and better athletes than your average opponent make up for a staff I don't trust that oversaw one of the worst half-court offenses in the sport last year? I definitely would take WKU here because I don't think the coaching edge is that severe, but a lot will continue to be dependent on just how much and how often Moore gets help. - Will Warren
Saint Mary's at Nevada (-4)
Stateline, NV | 4:30 PM ET | TBD
These are two top-tier mid-majors that are coming off absolutely massive blowouts against quality opponents. Saint Mary's knocked off North Dakota State by 41, while Nevada beat down Robert Morris 86-49. Of course, 3-point variance played a giant factor, with the Gaels shooting an absurd 20-of-31 (64.5%) from deep their win while the Wolfpack forced Robert Morris to shoot 3-of-18 (16.7%). These teams are terrific, but not total world-beaters like they showed last time out.
What really stands out about this new-look Saint Mary's offense with Mickey McConnell at the helm is the ball movement. The Gaels have registered 49 assists to just 19 turnovers on the campaign. But on the flipside, Nevada is fresh off forcing a 28.4% turnover rate against Robert Morris. With terrific rim protectors Elijah Price and Simon Majok roaming the paint, the Wolfpack can afford to be aggressive.
The key matchup here will be Price and Saint Mary's forward Vangelis Zougris, who looks like he's made of stone out there on the court. He's battled foul trouble both games and yet has shot 12-of-12 from the field when out there. Price is a thinner big but more athletic, and could get pushed around here.
All told, we may learn something about which team's recent blowout was more sustainable. Both should be fixtures atop of the WCC and Mountain West respectively. It's possible that 30 minutes of Zougris without serious foul trouble is enough for Saint Mary's to pull this one out. - Matthew Winick
Richmond vs. Temple (-1)
Philadelphia, PA | 5:00 PM ET | ESPN2
Richmond theoretically had a lot of shooters coming into this season, but many lacked long-term track records. Derin Saran shot 36.6% from three as a freshman at UC Irvine, but just 26.0% last year; Jamie Kaiser started hot for Butler last year but shot 29.9% over his last 16 games; Dominick Stewart shot 34.8% as a sophomore at Penn State, and it was an upgrade on 28.9% as a freshman; Aiden Argabright was only a freshman last year. Though it's been a minuscule two-game sample to start the season, Richmond’s shooters have been dialed in. The Spiders shot 13-for-25 from deep against UNC Asheville in a 23-point season-opening win, then 12-for-23 in a non-D1 win over Southern Virginia. The 52.1% 3-point shooting through two games is eye-opening, but Richmond is also 64.7% inside the arc.
There is a ton to like about Richmond’s start offensively, but it's about to face a much tougher opponent. UNC Asheville was a sub-300 KenPom opponent, and Southern Virginia is non-D1. Meanwhile, Temple has finished top 200 in every season of the KenPom era, and its preseason KenPom ranking this year is its best since 2023. Additionally, UNC Asheville already showed some of Richmond’s holes inside by shooting 60.5% on 2-pointers. Temple could look to exploit that after having much more success inside the arc (65.5%) than beyond it (26.7%) in its 12-point season-opening win over Central Connecticut. Another area where Temple could have an edge is with having the best returners on the floor in Derrian Ford and Gavin Griffiths; the two combined to average 28.2 points per game for the Owls last season, and raise the floor early in the year.
The guard battle should be superb between these two teams, while the frontcourt is a bit less settled. Amon Dorries has started both games at the 5 for Richmond, while Temple will either counter with Christian Beam, who only played nine minutes in the opener, or lean heavily into small-ball. Richmond is off to the faster start, but Temple has more early-season continuity. It should be a fun battle in a tremendous venue at The Palestra. - Lukas Harkins
Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Penn State
Philadelphia, PA | 8:00 PM ET | ESPN2
Is November 8, 2026 too early for a Loser Leaves Town Match? I say yes, but almost entirely because I think both of these guys could be leaving town in a few months anyway. Pitt demolished the Nittany Lions last year, 80-46, and if something similar happens in either direction here I think the chances of Loser Leaves Town is not zero.
I appreciate how identical these two have been thus far: a complete smoking of a bad Quadrant 4 opponent in the opener; a wobbly 30ish minutes against a better mid-major in the second game. One good aspect of the PSU experience thus far is that Mike Rhoades' crew has been excellent at limiting opponents in transition. Given that I do not trust this Pitt offense in the half-court at all, it comes down almost entirely to if Penn State can make this game slow as sludge. Penn State can operate in the half-court to some extent, and Roko Prkačin has been awesome as a sort of point post. Pitt's path here is to get out in transition and to slow down Penn State's frontcourt, who has quietly been fabulous thus far, particularly on the boards. It feels like Rhoades' crew has slightly more paths to victory, which makes me lean towards the Nittany Lions. - Will Warren
Houston (-16) vs. California
Stateline, NV | 8:30 PM ET | The CW
I'm of two minds here: Houston As Big Favorite (15+ points, post-COVID) is 43-30-1 ATS post-COVID and a hilarious 46-28 to the under, and even last year, with a mostly remade roster, this was 9-5 ATS and 9-5 to the under. But! On the other hand, Mark Madsen As Big Underdog is quite nice: 14-9 ATS with similar numbers to the under. I would wager Madsen wants this to be as low-scoring as possible in the same way a 14-seed would in March.
How successful they can be at that I'm not sure. Cal's defensive system actually holds up quite well against better competition, but this is sort of an oddball matchup of two of the ~5 most aggressive P&R coverages in the entire sport. No one knows about it because barely anyone watches Cal basketball unless they're signed up for this site, but Cal blitzes ball screens almost identically to Houston, just with significantly less athleticism and less giant wingspans at play:
When faced with tastes of their own medicine, Houston has generally put opposing blitzes in the dirt, as even in a loss at Iowa State last year they still put up 1.15 PPP with only seven turnovers in a game they probably definitely should've won. Cal's blitz also doesn't force nearly as many turnovers as you'd think, which leads me to believe this is a game where Houston should enjoy a massive shot volume edge (the Golden Bears are probably going to get slaughtered on the glass in particular). Houston does have real weaknesses - I'm not 100% convinced of their shooting and I'd like better depth - but Cal is probably not the team to exploit that. Would lean Houston by a little to cover 16 here. - Will Warren
Wichita State vs. USC (-6)
Stateline, NV | 11:00 PM ET | The CW
To be added later.