Welcome to the weekend watchlist!
We're breaking down the top matchups of the weekend, every weekend.
Click here to scroll down to Sunday's games.
Before we dive in, here are yesterday's top performances and today's watchability index.
Click on each projected score to get the full game preview in the Basket Under Review app.
*KenPom spread is referenced in the article
Saturday, November 14
LSU at Gonzaga (-7)
Spokane, WA | 3:00 PM ET | USA Network
The best matchup of Saturday comes to us in the Pacific Northwest a few miles away from the Gonzaga campus at Spokane Arena. LSU’s lineup of international pros and 5-in-5s is one of the most fascinating case studies in the entire sport as they have hammered their first three mid-major opponents into oblivion. Their Strength of Schedule also ranks 348th nationally, so it is fair to question how real that style will translate up in competition. The Gonzaga close win over Purdue is also aging like bagged milk in the summer sun after the Boilermakers lost at home to Valpo a few nights ago, so it’s fair to question what we have on both sides.
LSU wants to pick up full court and fall back into Will Wade’s 1-3-1 trap looks. Gonzaga wants to push pace offensively and hammer the rim. Those are also two very difficult tasks against a scheme that is more or less built to succeed in both of those areas. LSU will feast on smaller teams that struggle to hold onto the ball, but Gonzaga should be an elite ball-security unit given the skill up and down their lineup. At the same time, LSU is also a difficult defense to ball screen like Gonzaga wants to do, so the Bulldogs need to be ready to play off-script at a higher-than-normal rate in this one.
If LSU’s pressure can make Gonzaga uncomfortable—advantage Tigers. The longer Zaga can hold onto the rock, the more LSU’s scramble-heavy defense will open up opportunities on the weak side, especially at the 3P arc. You know who is someone who can capitalize on those opportunities? Newly eligible Chauncey Wiggins is an old-school wing shooter with a ton of experience who will help Gonzaga not only in this game but long-term. First true roadie for LSU with travel is always a dangerous spot, so this should be every bit the battle we need on a Saturday slate without a ton of weight at the top. - Gavin
Colorado at Providence (-8)
Providence, RI | 6:00 PM ET | Peacock
This is quietly a return trip, just not in the way you think: Colorado assistant Nate Tomlinson spent a couple years at Providence early in Kim English's tenure after following him over from George Mason. I am sure the AMP or the DUNK or whatever fans call it will be rocking just like they do for one E. Cooley.
I've yet to see much from Colorado that suggests an unexpected surge forward after a couple down years. It's unsurprisingly a roster that doesn't have a ton of great half-court scoring options, so far extremely reliant on Barrington Hargress to continue being one of the best guards out there. Hargress has been nearly flawless through three - 135 ORtg on 25% USG%, 3:1 A:TO ratio, and hitting 50% of his 3s. If I were confident in there being a solid second option here, maybe I'd be a bit more curious and/or positive surrounding the Buffs long term, but frankly, it looks like Hargress, five okay-to-good contributors, and little else.
As bad as the Providence offense has looked so far, it's how good the defense has been. I thought they made Nebraska quite uncomfortable, and neither Maine nor Bryant were up for the challenge they provided. Hargress avoiding turnovers is huge here, as that's helped Providence build a gigantic shot-volume edge through perimeter steals, but at some point you do have to make shots. I think this could actually be a pretty simple game to figure out: Hargress may be the best player on the court, but the next four or five all play for Providence. Not sure how you overcome that unless Providence has another <25% stinker from 3 and Colorado builds a surprise edge on the boards. - Will Warren
Penn at Saint Joseph's (-5)
Philadelphia, PA | 6:30 PM ET | ESPN+
We've got Big 5 basketball in Philly on Saturday. The big question coming in is the status of SJU star Jaiden Glover-Toscano, who exited Wednesday's game against South Florida with a hand injury. However, the Hawks held on behind a breakout performance by freshman BJ Ranson.
SJU's offense has shifted away from ball screens this year and the team has dominated the turnover battle this year. The question – as it is every night for Joes – is whether Sean Logan will be able to stay out of foul trouble long enough to truly impose himself on defense as much as he can. When he's on the floor, it completely turns off the rim for opponents and forces a ton of jump shots. Penn, though, is just fine taking a lot of jump shots. They don't have a very high rim rate altogether, and they rely on shotmakers TJ Power and Mike Zanoni.
In that sense, Logan on the floor might not be terrible for Penn, who takes a lot of mid-range jumpers anyway (329th in Avg 2PA distance). Especially noting how poor Logan has been on the offensive side of the ball for the Hawks this year. Regardless, Joe's wings have been aggressive on defense this year and will force turnovers anyway. If JGT plays, that's another long, athletic defender on the floor that Penn will have to worry about – while also giving them serious scoring punch. Ranson will be higher on the scouting report now, so I'd expect Penn to throw some different looks at him.
Most importantly, we should cherish these local rivalry games. I'm looking at you, Kevin. - Sam Federman
Cincinnati (-6) at Dayton
Dayton, OH | 7:30 PM ET | ESPN+
Two powers of the Buckeye State clash on Friday, and each one badly needs a win. Cincinnati surprisingly dropped a home game to Minnesota, while Dayton is absolutely reeling. The Flyers have lost back-to-back home games to Northern Illinois and Siena, two teams with first-year coaches and turned-over rosters. Dayton has struggled on both ends of the court, and a third straight home loss – this time to an in-state rival – would stoke the raging fires under Anthony Grant’s seat.
The Bearcats’ offense has sputtered out of the gates, unable to hit shots or find a real rhythm. Such is the case for a team with no clear best lineup(s), and Jerrod Calhoun is still trying to figure out the best combinations. Late addition Amani Lyles has not yet meshed, and the team misses Jayden Hastings, easily the Bearcats' best defensive player.
Dayton, meanwhile, has gotten nothing from its point guards. Landen Joseph has been subpar, but Travis Perry has been even worse – unplayable, really. They are a combined 5/31 from 3, and Perry has more turnovers (3) than assists (2). Without enough shot creation and playmaking, a greater burden has fallen on standout freshman Aiden Derkack, who is doing as much as he can.
The winner will be decided when Dayton has the ball. Can the Flyers’ offense find a jolt with Hastings and on-ball defensive demon Javonte Campbell still out? Or will their guards continue to struggle, especially with the opponent going from plucky mid-major to bona fide P5 team with size and depth?
It’s a running bit among Flyer fans that the team forgets how to play basketball for two weeks every season. We appear to be in the midst of that stretch, which would spell doom against a quality P5 opponent. Of course, in front of a raucous crowd, this could also be the line-in-the-sand game where Dayton suddenly plays to its talent level. Unfortunately for the Flyer faithful, I think Cincinnati is the wrong team to “get right” against. - Jim Root
Furman at Belmont (-1)
Nashville, TN | 8:30 PM ET | ESPN+
Fun one in Nashville, or so I think. Belmont has surprisingly struggled on O so far under new HC Evan Bradds as they shift to more of a spread-'n'-shred P&R attack instead of their off-ball motion and hand-offs we've come to know and love. They're not in panic territory or anything, but it seems like this game could be fairly telling about what they're in for the rest of the way, as Furman looks like the best team in the SoCon and has looked excellent offensively with near-ideal shot selection.
I think Belmont may get some amount of an offensive reprieve here. They've struggled immensely with turnovers as everyone learns the new system, but Furman is far from an aggressive perimeter defense and is more likely to stay compact to help protect the rim. This means they give up relatively few second-chance points and don't foul much, but it also means Belmont is likely going to be able to get jumpers off. That actually feels like a rare bad sign, as Belmont has been one of the most rim-reliant offenses in America so far and has struggled to identify the right shots from deep. They're owed better results from 3 and should see them soon, but I'm not sure that's enough to make up for their other problems. I lean Furman getting it done on the road here, as I feel this is a game Belmont would be more likely to win in a couple months than now. - Will Warren
New Mexico at Santa Clara (-1)
Santa Clara, CA | 10:00 PM ET | ESPN+
The second Saturday slate of the college basketball season ends with a bang as two preseason conference favorites off to roaring starts are set to meet. New Mexico has begun its quest towards the MWC title with a 3-0 record, while Santa Clara’s hopes at a WCC championship are off to a 4-0 start. This will be the first game against a top-100 opponent for both teams.
For New Mexico, it starts with one of the best backcourt trios in the country in Jake Hall, Uriah Tenette, and Hudson Mayes. All underclassmen, but all uniquely talented and seemingly superb fits around one another. Hall, most notably, is building on his Mountain West Rookie of the Year campaign from last season with sights on more hardware; the 6-4 guard is averaging 30.7 points through three games, and is as deadly of a shooter as there is nationwide (career 128-for-295, 43.4%, from beyond the arc). Tenette, a fellow returner, supplies the defensive backbone of the backcourt and is coming off a career-high five 3s vs. Little Rock.
The newcomer, Mayes, comes over from UC San Diego and adds a different dimension as an elite downhill attacker and plus positional rebounder. After averaging 8.4 points over his first 25 games last season, he finished averaging 17.2 points over his last 10. He has carried that late-season success over to his new program, reaching double figures in all three games, and doing the vast majority of that work inside; Mayes’s 18 makes at the rim are fifth-most among guards across college hoops this season, per CBB Analytics.
On Santa Clara’s end, offensive tempo will be a key area to watch. The Broncos have finished in the top 100 for adjusted tempo in seven straight seasons under head coach Herb Sendek, and rank 25th in average possession length to begin this campaign; they are moving the ball exceptionally (25th in assist rate), launching 3s (89th in 3PAr), and hitting (116th in 3P%). New Mexico looks to run offensively too, but its defense has slowed its opponents to the 28th-longest average possessions thus far; Santa Clara will look to crack that and find its early offense.
To the point of the Broncos’ tempo, they are shooting 40.4% on 3s taken in the first 10 seconds of their shot clocks, as opposed to 32.0% in the final 20 seconds. David Castillo is the main early-offense weapon for the Broncos, shooting 7-for-15 on 3s in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock this season; Brad Longcor III (5-for-9) is another to watch. New Mexico’s defense has allowed only 27.0% efficiency on huge 3-point volume (54.4% 3PAr allowed) this season, but their best 3-point shooting opponent to date, Little Rock, shot 11-for-27. Castillo (13.3 points) is Santa Clara’s leading scorer, while Sash Gavalygov (4.3 assists) is the top distributor for a team with eight different players averaging at least a dime per contest.
If you’re in search of elite guard play in a game likely featuring two future NCAA Tournament squads, this is a great one to tune into before bed. - Lukas Harkins
Utah Valley at Nevada (-10)
Reno, NV | 10:00 PM ET | MW+
I'm really into this game as a test of two teams trying to eliminate each other's best attributes. Utah Valley will, as usual, pack it in and force their opponent to not be so rim-reliant, which is Nevada's whole thing with Styles Phipps, Vaughn Weems, and Elijah Price leading the show. On the other end, Nevada's drop coverage has been pretty great so far, forcing a ton of midrange twos, shots that Utah Valley really wants to avoid as the Wolverines aren't exactly known for their jump shooting prowess.
I'm not feeling like we know a ton yet about either side here, so I ultimately lean towards the basics: who beats the other's best most frequently? Sight unseen, it feels like that's Nevada at home, who has gotten a stunningly great start from Phipps and Weems while Price figures out how he best fits with the backcourt. UVU's disruptive defense should be able to force Nevada into tougher, slower offensive possessions, but I'm not sure UVU's own offense can move the ball well enough to exploit the gaps Nevada is capable of giving up defensively. Kinda seems like the prototypical "does what it says on the KenPom tin" game to me, which is Nevada by 10. - Will Warren
Sunday, November 15
Louisville (-5) at Memphis
Memphis, TN | 1:00 PM ET | ESPN
Memphis is still without Nemanja Popović, who has three games left on his NCAA suspension, and that's a tough way to draw Louisville's frontcourt. Flory Bidunga was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at Kansas, and 7-foot-2 freshman Obinna Ekezie Jr. came off the bench for 20 points and 13 rebounds against Morehead State. Louisville won the glass 59-23 that day, with 20 offensive rebounds leading to 28 second-chance points. Maxim Logue and the rest of Memphis' fill-in bigs have to finish possessions, or the Tigers will spend Sunday handing the Cardinals extra shots.
The other big question is Jayden Reid's ankle. He's carried the offense so far, with 26 against Iowa State and 32 against VCU, but he sprained his left ankle early in Tuesday's 105-81 loss at Vanderbilt and finished with 11. Even healthy, he drew a crowd from VCU, and Memphis' offense bogged down when he wasn't impactful. Louisville has the size and length to load up on him the same way.
Memphis also has to keep the Cardinals out of transition, which is where they want to play as much of the game as possible. If Reid is limited, I don't see where Memphis finds enough half-court offense to keep up. - Brian Rauf
Boise State vs. Nebraska (-7)
Sioux Falls, SD | 2:00 PM ET | BTN
Leon Rice has made Boise State into one of the nation's most consistent programs, finishing between No. 37 and 61 on KenPom in six straight years, but this is not his typical team. After five straight years ranking sub-200 in adjusted tempo, the Broncos are at 70th through three games this year; they are 12th nationally in average possession length, 46th in 3-point attempt rate, and 19th in 3-point percentage — while leading the country in turnover rate. Meanwhile, the program staple of defensive rebounding (nine straight top-25 finishes, but 212th so far) has taken more of a backseat to forcing turnovers.
Leading the charge has been breakout sophomore guard AG Neto. A standout defender as a freshman, Neto has taken the leap into offensive focal point this year, leading the team in either points or assists – or both – in all three games; he is averaging 20.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.0 steals thus far, shooting 6-for-8 on 3-pointers. Backcourt partner Damari Wheeler-Thomas isn’t far behind, averaging 17.3 points on 10-for-19 from three; the former North Dakota State standout has dished 12 assists to just one turnover over the last two games.
The supporting cast features six others averaging at least eight points per game, including returning stretch forward Spencer Ahrens, nightly double-double threat Dovydas Butka, and defensive menace Jerquarius Stanback. There is a lot to like in the early going for Boise State, but facing a KenPom top-15 opponent in Nebraska is a leap in competition level.
Nebraska lost some key pieces over the offseason, but Fred Hoiberg is an excellent coach with a proven system that he recruits to. Offensively, the Huskers are a pass-heavy, high-volume perimeter shooting team, even if not quite as deadly as a season ago. Still, Pryce Sandfort is back and has a case for the nation’s best shooter, Braden Frager is due to hit some shots after a cold start, and the positional shooting maintains plenty of spacing. Even out to the 5 spot, transfers Boden Kapke and Damon Wilkinson can knock down 3s.
Defensively, Nebraska defends the paint at an elite level; the personnel is different from last season, but the results through three games are similar: opponents are attempting just 19.4% of their shots at the rim, instead needing to launch 3-pointers at one of the nation’s highest rates. And, like last season, those 3-point looks aren’t easy or falling often. Last year, Nebraska ranked 1st in at-the-rim attempt rate allowed, 361st in 3-point attempt rate allowed, and 20th in 3-point percentage allowed; so far this season, those rankings are 30th, 316th, and 17th.
Even in the absence of Sam Hoiberg, Nebraska is still forcing turnovers as well. Frager and Cale Jacobsen both rank in the top 200 nationally for steal rate so far, and the Huskies are 28th in turnover rate forced. In their lone high-major game thus far, Nebraska shot just 5-for-24 from three, but forced Providence to take over 60% of its shots from three and only make 18.4%. The Huskers also came away with 12 steals out of 18 forced turnovers.
As such, this matchup pits early-season strength against early-season strength:
Expect lots of 3s. Can Boise State keep its ball security and hot shooting alive against one of the best in the country at preventing those exact skills? - Lukas Harkins
Marquette vs. Missouri (-1)
Chicago, IL | 2:30 PM ET | Peacock
Is he broken? Or just a bad day? That’s the glaring question in Golden Eagle land after Nigel James wandered around the court like an active saboteur at Michigan this week. James, a preseason Big East Player of the Year candidate, posted a final line befitting of you or me on the court: 0-of-11 from the field, one assist, four turnovers, zero rebounds or steals. If he was shaving points (to be clear, I do not think that), he was actually doing too good a job.
Nigel James’ performance today is the worst of the season by my Game Performance Score (min. 10 minutes)
— Colin Hanley (@cjhanalytics) November 12, 2026
Recorded a 20.1, a 50 represents an “average” D1 game
Marquette needs a significantly better version of its point guard against Mizzou, who is in a state of instability itself after falling to in-state foe Saint Louis. The Tigers could not sniff a defensive stop in that one, and a mid-week demolition of another STL metro area program, SIUE, did not exactly ease the pain.
Under Shaka Smart, Marquette’s defense is distinct: take away transition, force foes into the half court, but once there – it’s feasting time. The Golden Eagles have ranked top 40 in forced turnover rate for the last four years and are off to a strong start for a fifth, and their average defensive possession length ranks 355th per KenPom (meaning: long possessions). They make you work, but Michigan found good looks when it was able to hang onto the ball.
Missouri has been outstanding at taking care of the rock thus far (#6 offensive TO rate). Only 10 miscues against SLU was one of the primary positives from that contest, and if the Tigers take care of it again, they can generate open looks against a defense that can get out of position while seeking steals.
The bigger issue for the Tigers is getting stops against good offenses. Marquette can be a good offense when its star point guard is playing well, as the big men – Sananda Fru, Royce Parham, Joshua Clark – are excellent finishers around the bucket, and Adrien Stevens and Colin Porter can both light up the nets from distance. James, the primary creator, is the all-important straw that stirs the drink. Mizzou likely moves scoring point guard Jason Crowe off the ball defensively, which meas James will have to score against size: 6-6 Kennard Davis or 6-7 Jamier Jones.
Mizzou’s enormous positional size could overwhelm, and both teams will barrage the offensive glass. But to me, this comes down to James and Mizzou’s ability to protect the rock. I expect a significantly better outing from James. - Jim Root
Baylor vs. Texas (-5)
San Antonio, TX | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN
Baylor was the surprise of exhibition season as it picked up wins over Florida and Illinois. Texas has spent three games beating overmatched opponents, so Sunday is the Longhorns' first real test. It starts in the paint, where Matas Vokietaitis is averaging 21.3 points on 79.3% shooting in just 22.4 minutes. When defenses collapse on him, David Punch has been the one left open. Baylor's frontcourt will have its hands full.
On the other end, Baylor has shot 22-of-81 from three through three games, and Texas has done a good job limiting opponents from long range. The Bears' best path is their defensive pressure. They forced 17 turnovers against Yale while playing nine guys at least 15 minutes. Texas, meanwhile, is leaning on freshman guards like Austin Goosby and Joe Sterling with Mikey Lewis out until mid-to-late December. Baylor's depth can wear on those young guards, but it probably needs some transition buckets out of that pressure to survive another cold shooting day. - Brian Rauf
Creighton vs. Iowa (-2)
Des Moines, IA | 3:00 PM ET | FOX Sports 1
So...Creighton. Are they any good? I think they might not be good, and I am frankly really surprised at how stilted and one-note their offense seems so far. Gone are a lot of the dribble hand-offs I'd grown to love, they can't attack through the post like they used to, and the off-ball screens have felt a little muted in comparison to McDermott's peaks. Right now they look like a team that needs Wes Enis or BJ Davis to bail them out, and typically it's been Davis, whether by his own shot or by finding Enis being somewhat open for a jumper:
Iowa's had their own struggles, and I'm on the side of wagering their defense will likely be nothing to write home about. But Creighton has played three straight nought-to-write-home-about defenses and their 'best' performance was 1.07 PPP against a Kansas State team that let South Dakota State put 1.02 PPP up on them. I guess we can confirm Creighton's offense is better than the third-best offense in the Summit League, but that's about it. Anything can happen in a one game sample, as Iowa painfully learned on Tuesday, but this would require a lot of weird stuff to happen. Iowa should have a fairly severe rebounding edge, too, and has operated really well in half-court thus far. It doesn't seem to me like there's anyone on Creighton capable of handling Iowa at the rim, especially if Ty'Reek Coleman plays as downhill as he did versus Virginia Tech. - Will Warren
High Point at Saint Louis (-9)
Saint Louis, MO | 3:00 PM ET | ESPN2
This one comes down to whether High Point can speed Saint Louis up. The Panthers led the country in steals last season, and on Thursday they forced 25 Southern Utah turnovers, scoring 28 points off them and winning the fast-break battle 29-6.
Saint Louis, meanwhile, has been absolutely lethal on the offensive end. The Billikens made 14 of 25 threes against Missouri, then set school records with 30 assists and 125 points against Northern Kentucky, with Trey Green going 7-of-8 from deep.
High Point could have more trouble in the half court. The Panthers went 3-of-25 from three against Southern Utah and still won by 29 by dominating the paint. Flynn Clayman said afterward he wants a team that can win on nights it doesn't make shots, but that's a lot harder on the road against Quentin Jones, whom Josh Schertz called the best individual defender on a roster with two A-10 All-Defensive players.
If SLU takes care of the ball and forces High Point to score in the half court, I'd trust the Billikens' shooting to take over. - Brian Rauf
New Mexico State at San Diego State (-10)
San Diego, CA | 3:30 PM ET | The CW
Why this one? Because, hey, San Diego State has looked pretty good so far and because New Mexico State has Mark Lavrenov, a man that is rapidly shooting up Twitter Transfer Portal Watchlists as I type. Through three, Lavrenov is averaging 17 & 7 to go with eight free throw attempts per game, plus one of the highest OREB% at a non-P5 level as it stands. Now, does any of this translate to Lavrenov bothering to play a lick of defense? Of course not. He's one of the worst defenders in college basketball at this time.
What this does mean is that you should check some of this game out, because Lavrenov can and will attack through the post against a San Diego State crew that is struggling badly in post defense right now. I would chalk this up mostly to going from "we have Magoon Gwath" to "we have Bear Cherry." What this means for the viewer is that Lavrenov can realistically put up 20+ on a future top-50 defense, and SDSU's own crappy shot selection could make this a tighter than anticipated game. Well, until SDSU realizes NMSU is shockingly bad at defensive rebounding and at interior defense themselves. - Will Warren
Syracuse at St. John's (-11)
New York, NY | 7:00 PM ET | Peacock
Syracuse has faced three possessions of press defense over the first three games of the regular season. I still have some lingering ball handling concerns against pressure defense for Syracuse, despite the fact that the team has a top-25 turnover rate in the country at the moment. St. John's pressed their buy game opponents 22% of the time, which could present some serious challenges for the Orange. The Johnnies' offense has been humming with Quinn Ellis at the controls flanked by three scorers in Keyshawn Hall, Tounde Yessoufou, and Ian Jackson. Syracuse is built around its guard defense, but with Aiden Tobiason out, Indiana's guards were able to create shots off the bounce against SU.
St. John's is the more talented team, and thanks to having a true PG this year, they've dropped from 11% of FGA being mid-range 2s to 4.7% of FGA being mid-range 2s. Syracuse's lineups in this game will need ball handlers on the floor to face the pressure – I'd expect GMac to go back to the Dual/Moesch duo that was +8 against IU – but they cede shooting with that duo, and in a game that St. John's wants to turn into a track meet, it could be tough to catch up. To make matters worse for Syracuse's offense, sharpshooter Mark Morano rolled his ankle against Indiana and his status for Sunday night is not known. He didn't practice on Wednesday, per Syracuse.com
For Syracuse to win, the Orange will need to muck the game up and slow down St. John's offensive pace. Can SU turn Quinn Ellis into a scorer? On the offensive side of the ball, Syracuse will need to be poised and patient, protecting the ball. And they'll also need some shotmaking. - Sam Federman