Welcome to the final Weekend Watchlist of the regular season! Before you dive in, check out yesterday's top performances and today's Watchability Index.
Saturday, March 7
Conference Championships
Ohio Valley Championship Game: #276 Morehead State vs. #195 Tennessee State (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPN2.
The first championship game of March (although it could technically be the second auto-bid handed out depending on what happens in the NEC semis earlier in the afternoon)! Tennessee State got here by out-athleting UT Martin for the third time this season, once again turning them over at a 23% rate with their aggressive trapping pressure. Morehead State meanwhile mid-ranged and free throwed their way to the final in a comeback win over SEMO, a game they looked moribund in for 30 minutes or so.
Morehead and TSU split the season series, with TSU winning in a wild OT game despite forcing their lowest turnover rate of the entire season. Morehead State returned the favor at home despite TSU doubling their TO rate from the previous meeting and owning a substantial shot volume edge. Josiah Legree scored 25 points out of nowhere in that Eagles win, and he's barely played 25 minutes in the 5 games since.
These were the top two seeds so they're bypassed into the semis, and thus still have relatively fresh legs, but I'll side with TSU's athleticism and pressure on no rest. - Jordan Majewski
A Games
#15 Vanderbilt at #13 Tennessee (-4), 2 PM ET, ESPN.
Hard to really rewrite much from what I said two weeks ago about this game when it was at Memorial Gym, a game Tennessee won largely on the boards and on the interior. Nothing about that has changed, and what I said at the time:
Tyler Tanner has done great work, but he’s just one guy. Jalen Washington is a fine rim protector, but he’s at 5 fouls committed per 40 minutes played. Devin McGlockton is a great rebounder and all-around glue guy, but his aggressiveness gets him in foul trouble often and he’s already playing out of position at the 5. Add it all up and you get a defense surrendering a 59% hit rate at the rim combined with the 339th-best DREB% allowed over the last month. That’s an extremely dangerous combo to me when your opponent has Nate Ament and is posting an astounding +17.0 rebounding margin per 100 in conference play.
This one has pretty significant SEC Tournament stakes (and some minor NCAA Tournament ones, as either/both could still rise to a 4 seed or fall to a 6), with victor Tennessee clinching a top-four finish or victor Vanderbilt likely finishing no worse than 5th after being preseason #11 per the media for some reason. Tennessee was missing JP Estrella in that first game but it certainly didn’t show down low, where Tennessee had 40 points in the paint to Vandy’s 22 and a 39% OREB% versus 24%. Tennessee even lost about five points to 3PT shooting luck alone in that game using ESPN's Net Points formula, meaning it could've been worse.
None of that is new news. Frankie Collins is gone, but Vandy’s roster had frontcourt concerns to begin with that have become exacerbated in recent weeks. In SEC play only, this is a +17.6 rebound margin (Tennessee) per 100 versus -3.1 (Vandy), and while Vandy does offer the best perimeter pressure in the SEC at full strength they’re still not gonna be full strength here. Tyler Nickel is highly unlikely to shoot as poorly as he did the first time out, and I have a hard time seeing another game where Vandy’s offense is THAT uncomfortable. Then again, you could say the same about Nate Ament, likely to play here after a horrendous offensive outing against Vandy the first time. It’s just not a great matchup on paper for Vandy, usually so good at producing kickout threes, almost reminding me of what has happened in previous years (and the first one this year) where Alabama had to play a changeup game in Tennessee. - Will Warren
#4 Florida (-6) at #26 Kentucky, 4 PM ET, ESPN.
Florida has been absolutely demolishing the SEC since its last loss way back on Jan. 24. The Gators have won 10 straight games, nine of which have been by double digits. And the one that was within 10 was against this Kentucky group. Granted, it was a nine-point Florida win that it led by as much as 16 late and the Wildcats never had more than a 12.6% chance of winning the game per KenPom, but it's about the small things!
Gators star Thomas Haugh is probable to return in this game after missing the Mississippi State game with injury, and should be a huge mismatch on the wing for a Kentucky squad that trots out 6-foot-5 Otega Oweh at the three.
Kentucky kept Florida right around its season average on the offensive boards, which is about all you can hope for against the Gators. That area didn't end up mattering much, because Xaivian Lee and Urban Klavzar combined to go 9-for-18 from deep. It doesn't take a genius analyst to tell you that Florida is downright unstoppable when the shots are falling from deep. Florida is 15-0 with 13 double digit wins when it just tops 30% from beyond the arc.
So outside of continuing to manage the glass with reasonable effectiveness and hoping Florida misses its threes, what can Kentucky actionably do to pick up its biggest win of the year by far?
Well for one, a better start. Florida jumped off to a 22-8 lead before Kentucky could even blink in the first matchup, and the Rupp Arena crowd in a massive game is arguably the greatest asset Kentucky has. The bigs will also need to defend and rebound without fouling. Malachi Moreno and Brandon Garrison combined for nine fouls in the first matchup, and forced Kentucky to play much smaller than they wanted.
Can the Wildcats end the insane streak for Florida? Probably not. There is very little analytical evidence pointing in Kentucky's favor. That said, you cannot argue against a world where the electric Rupp environment in a nationally televised game against a potential No. 1 seed Florida group that has already completely locked up an outright SEC title is a good enough "spot" to get the job done. That's why they play the games. - Matthew Winick
#41 Indiana at #27 Ohio State (-5), 5:30 PM ET, FOX.
This was a bubble eliminator game a week ago, but Ohio State beating the corpse of Purdue is still worth something, so it’s likely just a bubble eliminator for the Hoosiers. These teams are honestly pretty similar: offense forward, too reliant on tough shot making at times, generate a high rate of offense via cut and off-ball screening (both offenses in the mid to high 90th percentiles in rate in both areas), soft at the rim, soft on the glass, foul too much. IU has been so consistently hurt in ball screen and post defense that DeVries is actually playing two on the ball and doubling the post, getting out of their drop base more and more. And that’s likely what they’ll have to do against Bruce Thornton’s elite ball screen/dribble creation and Devin Royal’s mid post dribble backdowns.
Ohio State has been a top 20 offense nationally at home, and while they’re not a strong defensive team, I’m guessing Diebler ditches the zone looks and goes back to drop coverage, which has been the bain of IU’s offensive existence all season because they don't have anyone who can score consistently on the ball, unless you move Lamar Wilkerson there and that self-mitigates much of his perimeter shooting ability. OSU is bound to cool off from 3 after Penn State simply didn’t play defense against them, but IU’s deficiencies defensively and OSU’s home offense is probably enough to hand the Hoosiers perhaps their bubble death blow. - Jordan Majewski
#14 Texas Tech at #24 BYU (-1), 10:30 PM ET, ESPN.
In a stretch of games that has continuously felt like rock bottom, a new low was reached for BYU with an embarrassing 90-68 loss at Cincinnati earlier this week. When these teams squared off on Jan. 17, BYU was 16-1 on the year with just a three-point loss to UConn as a blemish. Now the Cougars are 20-10, coming off three straight losses.
Texas Tech finally saw a loss in the post-JT Toppin part of the campaign, as TCU's pick-and-roll ball pressure defensively forced the ball out of Christian Anderson's hands and the Red Raider role players couldn't make them pay. Texas Tech's wings and guards combined to score just 18 total points.
The most notable part of Texas Tech's 84-71 win over BYU back when Richie Saunders was still healthy was the Red Raiders' elite coverage on superstar AJ Dybantsa. The potential No. 1 pick had just 13 points on 17 shots in the first matchup, only getting to the rim five times and shooting a season-low one free throw. It's safe to say if Dybantsa puts forth that statline again, the Cougars have no chance.
On the other end of the floor, there are five teams in the Big 12 that are lower than 100th in defensive efficiency, and yet BYU sits third-last in that stat throughout league play. The team's defense has been bad basically everywhere, second-last in turnover percentage, second-last in 3-point percentage, 11th in 2-point percentage. Texas Tech has largely become a perimeter-focussed unit, but BYU's ability to handle dribble penetration has been an issue all season.
Inevitably, Texas Tech is a great, but limited team without JT Toppin. This, we somewhat know. I'd be lying if I told you I had any good prognosis on what BYU's season looks like from here on out. If Dybantsa figured out the Red Raiders' defensive scheme, had a 40-point game, and it sparked a deep Big 12 Tournament run and March Madness surge, I'd believe you. If you told me this was the Cougars' fourth-last game of the season with a first-round Big 12 tourney exit and a loss in the Round of 32, I'd also say that's reasonable.
This is the game where BYU needs to turn its season around. - Matthew Winick
B Games
#17 Arkansas (-4) at #50 Missouri, 12 PM ET, ESPN.
Arkansas has only had to play 72 of its 690 SEC minutes without Darius Acuff on the floor, and they're staring down 40 straight without him, as the superstar point guard will be sidelined for this game. To demonstrate how valuable he is offensively, Acuff went just 4-of-11 in the first matchup against Missouri, and still dropped 20 points, five assists, and zero turnovers in a 94-86 win.
This is also a massive game for Missouri's NCAA Tournament hopes, as a win more than likely secures a berth, while a loss still leaves things to chance. Missouri is one of the five or ten most dominant two-way rim teams in the power conference landscape in terms of points scored and efficiency, yet are inexplicably average compared to those other elite interior squads that includes Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida.
A part of that is the turnover issues, Missouri is dead-last in the SEC in offensive turnover rate, but Arkansas doesn't really force many and the Tigers only had 10 in the first meeting. Missouri also isn't good enough at the free throw line at just 68.5%, which can always play a factor in close games.
Home wins over Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee have shown the ceiling of this Tigers squad, and in theory, they should be able to add another big one to that list of victories with an Acuff-less Arkansas squad. They certainly "need" this game more.
But it's also worth mentioning that Arkansas is actually a +50 in the 65 non-garbage time minutes Acuff has sat in SEC play. It's an extremely small sample size and likely doesn't mean a ton, but a lot of teams would take a backcourt of DJ Wagner, Meleek Thomas, and Billy Richmond in a heartbeat.
This is all setting up like a great shot at a Missouri win, but Arkansas' short but talented active roster has the ability to spoil the party. - Matthew Winick
#42 Cincinnati at #44 TCU (-3), 2 PM ET, TNT.
Here’s one of two monster weekend bubble battles, and while TCU is at least a little less desperate than UC they both badly need it. This game is way better than the standard KenPom stuff would suggest, because against top-100 opponents only this is #25 at #21. I think TCU’s going to have an edge turnovers-wise. Cincy should be able to break even, if not outright win, on the boards. Every other little thing is either a dead heat or totally up in the air, which feels appropriate for a game I can’t figure out a lean on.
Cincy’s goal of playing all the way through their frontcourt and running that advantage into the ground has worked against a lot of teams lately, but this TCU defense is fairly good at shrinking the game and making it hard to score on them down low. That makes the inside-out play of the Bearcats’ offense really important here for me. Is Baba Miller ready and willing to look up when an open shooter appears on the perimeter? I know this TCU team is going to give up some open looks at the expense of allowing easy twos down low.
On the flip side it’s the exact same thing. Only one team in America uses more post-up actions than TCU, which is par for the course when you roster David Punch and Xavier Edmonds. Again, the inside-out portion will be key here; can Punch pass out when the time is right? This is total mud-ball where I don’t think either team gets to 70 points. Very, very minor lean towards TCU here simply for the home court advantage (and for the hilarious built-in advantage every single Big 12 home team gets with the league’s officiating guidelines), but I think this is as 50/50 a game as you’ll find all weekend. Going to be decided on some extremely thin margins. - Will Warren
#16 Louisville (-1) at #28 Miami FL, 2 PM ET, ESPNU.
Louisville is 0-8 in Q1A games this year, losing by an average of 12.4 points per game. Guess what this, a trip to Miami to face the #29 team in the NET, is? That’s right, a ninth Q1A game! Can the Cardinals finally find the win
They will need to find a way to battle in the paint against the brutish frontcourt of Malik Reneau and Ernest Udeh, both of whom help the Hurricanes dominate the boards on both ends of the floor. The Canes are top 2 in the ACC in rebound rate on both ends of the floor; Udeh is utterly dominant.
Reneau is a key to this matchup. Offensively, he’s a nightmare for Louisville’s 4-out alignment, as he can bully J’Vonne Hadley in the post or driving from the perimeter. The skilled lefty could feast. On the other end, though, he could be a target for Louisville’s ball screens and even in Hadley isolations, testing his foot speed. If he can hold up defensively, Miami gains a huge edge.
Per usual for the Cardinals, expect them to bomb away from beyond the arc (#3 nationally in 3PA rate). In theory, this makes them a “can get hot and beat anyone” candidate, but as noted in paragraph 1, this team has not gotten hot and beaten anyone that is very good. Against a long, physical, athletic backcourt for Miami, I do not anticipate the Cards creating many great looks from the perimeter. I’m expecting more tough shots off screens or off the bounce.
And if Mikel Brown Jr. is out – or even limited – that further saps the Cardinals effectiveness offensively. He missed last game with a continuation of his back issues from earlier in the season, and the fabulous freshman’s presence as a shooter and creator is vital to making the Louisville offense work. Over-reliance on Conwell puts too much of a burden on the smooth southpaw. – Jim Root
Missouri Valley semifinal game #1 (#185 Drake vs. #108 UIC (-6)), 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN.
A truly unexpected first semifinal of Arch Madness, as Drake demolished Belmont and UIC did much the same to Murray State. I wasn’t floored by the latter but Drake’s surprise rise to competence after a month straight of horrific basketball is genuinely hard to figure out. There were no injuries or off-court problems that were fixed or would suggest an Arch Madness rekindling. They just went out there and smoked Belmont for 40 minutes out of nowhere.
The most recent version of this was forgotten 2019-20 MVC ruler Northern Iowa getting smashed like a fly by, you guessed it, Drake in the quarterfinals. The next day, Drake’s legs caught up to them a bit as they shot 28% from 3/68% from the line. That was two coaches ago now, but only one team (2020 Valpo, coincidentally) has ever gone from Thursday to Sunday. Simply put: it’s pretty hard to pull off four in a row when your opponent has one extra day of legs. The two UIC/Drake battles this year both went the Flames’ way and both followed pretty similar paths: Drake hangs for a while and hits some shots before UIC’s frontcourt proceeds to own the boards, win the foul battle fairly heavily, and Drake ends up bombing away without being able to get back many of their misses. - Will Warren
#48 New Mexico at #36 Utah State (-7), 4 PM ET, Mountain West Network.
Utah State has already clinched at least a share of the Mountain West regular season title, but it’s hard to describe the Aggies’ current mood as really all that celebratory. Utah State has won 1 of their last 4 games, all three of those losses on the road. And while the first place team tries to calibrate to vie for an outright regular season title, head coach Jerrod Calhoun spent part of his media availability heading into the weekend answering questions about his name being linked to Kansas State’s search for a new head coach.
Into Logan comes New Mexico, a team fighting for their bubble lives after losing 82-74 to Colorado State on Wednesday night, currently the fifth team out of the tournament in Lukas Harkins’ bracket. The Lobos will need to win this game to keep their at-large hopes alive headed into the conference tournament. The only problem: Utah State has lost just once at home this season.
During this rough patch, Utah State is giving up 40.9% from three-point range and 52.3% from the field. The Aggies cannot afford to bring that average home with them when they play the Lobos, who are top 75 in both three-pointers made on the season and three-point shooting percentage. Eric Olen’s team is shooting 37.5% from deep in conference play, led by freshman guard Jake Hall, who is 29th in the country for perimeter makes this season.
The game should be a fun matchup of strength-on-strength, with both teams in the top three in the Mountain West for turnover percentage on offense and defense. Utah State is tied with Boise State for best offensive rebounding percentage in the league, while New Mexico is second in the conference for defensive rebounding percentage.
Utah State beat New Mexico earlier in the season 86-66, scorching the Lobos early in the second half and keeping pace and distance to close out the game. The Lobos were just 3 for 13 from three in that game and had 15 turnovers.
The top three teams of the Mountain West (Utah State, San Diego State and New Mexico) have combined for just 5 wins in their last 12 games. San Diego State won their final game of the season against UNLV on Friday, meaning an Aggies loss gives the Aztecs a share of the regular season title. - Tuck Clarry,
#25 Wisconsin at #7 Purdue (-8), 4 PM ET, CBS.
This Big Ten rematch has the “road revenge” angle to it, as Purdue embarrassed the Badgers in Madison, 89-73, in a game that was hardly that close (Purdue led by 25 with eight minutes left).
Of course, a lot of that result can be explained by each team’s 3P shooting: Purdue was 10-of-27 (37%) from beyond the arc, while Wisconsin bricked its way to 4-of-25 (16%). The Boilers also controlled the turnover battle, only coughing it up seven times in a 72-possession game. Braden Smith’s pick-and-roll mastery was on full display, as he posted 14 points and 12 assists in that banner offensive performance.
On paper, though, Wisconsin’s offense could give Purdue problems. John Blackwell is exactly the kind of bigger, downhill guard/wing that the Boilermakers have zero answer for; he was awful in the first meeting in Madison. Nick Boyd can attack Purdue’s ball screen coverage, too. The Badgers can also pull Purdue’s bigs away from the bucket with a potent shooting frontcourt, which would leave the rim exposed for Boyd and Blackwell getting downhill.
As my Athletic colleague Brendan Marks said in our Slack, “you could not give away Purdue stock right now.” The Boilers have played one good game in their last five, drilling rival Indiana at Mackey Arena in a revenge spot. This Badger team has far more big game juice than the Hoosiers.
One additional variable: Winter is questionable for this one after getting banged up in the mid-week blowout of Maryland. The Badgers need their veteran big man to help defend TKR and Cluff in the paint.
All things equal, this one looks like an efficient shootout to me, with Wisconsin in it to possibly win all the way into the final minutes. – Jim Root
Missouri Valley semifinal game #2 (#76 Northern Iowa (-4) vs. #122 Bradley), 6 PM ET, CBSSN.
Northern Iowa’s pack line has been the perfect defense in the usually shooting averse confines of the [will always be named in my heart] Kiel Center, as neither Evansville nor Illinois State last night have been able to penetrate the paint with any regularity. The Aces actually shot reasonably efficiently from 3 in the opening round, but still didn’t sniff 1 PPP, and the Redbirds were even worse. UNI has allowed a grand total of 24 points at the rim through 2 games in St. Louis, 12 each to the Aces and Redbirds. Bradley and UNI split the regular season series, with the Panthers losing in Peoria during their injury plagued January swoon. Bradley, generally not a strong threat at the rim offensively, has averaged 36 points at the rim through 2 games in St. Louis, which has counteracted a pretty substantial 2 game 3PT variance tidal wave against them, as the Braves have shot 9-35 from 3 vs 19-49 for their opponents. The win in Peoria saw Bradley score 30 points at the rim, the third highest total the Panthers allowed in MVC play. Apparently UNI took that personally, as Bradley scored just 6 points at the rim in the rematch in Cedar Falls. UNI’s wing athleticism has been the star of their show in St. Louis, with Leon Bond dominating on both ends of the floor, slashing to the rim against ISUred’s drop coverage and shutting down the Redbird backcourt with his length.
This latter point is key against the smaller but quicker Jaquan Johnson’s dribble and ball screen creation. UNI’s length denied him the ball in the win in Cedar Falls, holding him to his 4th lowest usage rate in MVC play. UNI is attempting to reach Sunday from Thursday, an ultra rare feat in Arch Madness (I believe done just once before, with no winner ever emerging from Thursday- wildly we could have two Thursday teams in the finals if both Iowa teams win), but Bradley’s “rest advantage” was somewhat negated by playing 10 extra minutes Friday night in an ultra physical game with Valpo. Ultimately I think UNI’s rim denial and length/athleticism combo on the perimeter against Bradley’s smaller backcourt could be the difference. - Jordan Majewski
#29 North Carolina at #1 Duke (-16), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN.
The blueblood rematch has the potential to get ugly given the surrounding factors: Duke’s elite current form, anger at losing at the buzzer in Chapel Hill, and of course, Caleb Wilson being done for the year thanks to a broken right thumb.
The first meeting had the look of a Duke runaway early on, with the Blue Devils getting a bunch of layups en route to an early 18-5 lead. The only thing that kept the game in range during the first half was Wilson’s heroics, as the future lottery pick got tough bucket after tough bucket against the Blue Devils’ stalwart defense.
The quieter part of Wilson’s absence is that he won’t be around to defend Boozer. Not that anyone can, but Wilson at least had the requisite size and athleticism to limit the National Player of the Year (or make life difficult). He is also quite familiar with his classmate, perhaps helping him keep up with the array of moves that Boozer can put on display. Instead, it will be…Zayden High? Jarin Stevenson? Boozer is salivating just reading those names.
Without Wilson, UNC is going to have to lean heavily on its drop coverage and hope Duke is cold on jumpers. Henri Veesaar appears fully healthy again, and he is a presence at the rim, but Duke may try to move him around with the passing ability of Pat Ngongba and Maliq Brown. The Blue Devils also excel at getting their guards going downhill via handoffs,
UNC’s offense will have to be much more focused on the creation of Seth Trimble and Derek Dixon. Trimble had been excellent lately until a dud against Clemson this week; expect a better performance for the senior playing his final regular season game. Dixon is more of a question mark. The Heels could use a hot shooting night from Luka Bogavac and/or Kyan Evans, as well.
KenPom makes this game Duke -16, and that’s with Wilson built into the number. Perhaps UNC can stay within 20, but I would be shocked if Boozer, Isaiah Evans and Jon Scheyer let this one be close. – Jim Root
#40 Auburn at #18 Alabama (-9), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN.
IBOB II this year is a fun one even if it only has severe stakes for one team. If Alabama wins, they clinch the SEC 2 seed and probably lock up an NCAAT 3, but even with a loss, they’re no worse than an SEC 3/NCAAT 4, respectively. For Auburn, however, the entire season lies upon this one game. Win, and there’s a greater than 50% chance you’ll be in the field of 68 barring an SEC Tournament implosion. Lose, and Torvik’s 10% odds of an NCAA Tournament appearance somehow feel too high.
While I’m on the rare side of thinking an Alabama team’s record sells them for more than they’re truly worth (10th WAB, ~18th average at Torvik/KenPom), the first game wasn’t the most encouraging thing I’ve ever seen if you’re Auburn. There, Alabama’s worst player on the court was Charles Bediako, who’s obviously not playing here. Alabama did get an outlier 3PT% day in their favor (52%), but I’ve got a hard time being super encouraged when Auburn constantly got shredded on drives to the rim and the Tide got whatever they wanted in P&R.
Neither one of these teams can defend at all, so I’m anticipating another explosive day of hoop in Alabama. I still think Alabama’s shot volume problems are going to be their downfall, and of all the things Auburn can’t do well, they can really rebound, which opens up the path to a shock road upset if 1) Alabama’s not making jumpers or 2) the whistle falls in Auburn’s favor. However, the fouls are probably going to cancel each other out given Auburn’s own major, unending issues with fouling. I’ll wager this is your classic “closer than it should be” game where Alabama wins by 5 or something. - Will Warren
#34 UCLA (-3) at #70 USC, 9 PM ET, FS1.
I know this isn't how it works, but humor me. If UCLA only played its games on the West Coast this season, the Bruins would be 11-4 against power conference teams with losses to Arizona, Cal, Gonzaga, and Indiana by a combined 23 points, and wins over Purdue, Nebraska, and Illinois. I promise you I am not Mick Cronin writing this in disguise.
All this to say, UCLA is pretty darn good when they don't have to travel cross-country. Neither does their opponent here, as USC is actually the host of this game.
If you told Eric Musselman in October that his starting lineup in March would include no Chad Baker-Mazara and Rodney Rice, but rather a guy in Kam Woods who wasn't even remotely on the team's radar at the time, he would not be a very happy man. I can't imagine he's a very happy man right now.
USC got blasted at Washington in the first game of the post-Baker-Mazara era, and the Huskies had more players on the injury list than the Trojans did. It was an exceptionally poor effort from USC, allowing Washington to dominate the rebounding and interior battle.
UCLA is not physical enough to do either of those things, but they are the significantly more talented team in a rivalry game where only one of the teams has much more left to play for this season.
Will USC play with more pride? Will UCLA's outstanding West Coast resume remain intact? Will I be watching the OVC championship game going on at the same time instead? I guess we at least know the answer to one of those questions. - Matthew Winick
C Games
#57 Virginia Tech at #19 Virginia (-11), 12 PM ET, The CW.
This is a really simple game for the Hokies: win and you’re…probably in? While not a gospel, Virginia Tech zooms up to 72% to make the field of 68 by winning this game at Torvik, and with a loss, they drop to 28%. The good news: Tech already won this game once, very early in the conference season, by defeating Virginia at home when UVA was arguably playing better than they are now. The bad news: Virginia had their fourth-worst 3PT% day of the season, shot 26 fewer free throws than Tech, had three fewer OREBs, and had three fewer TOs. It took Tech three overtimes to win this specific game, including Ben Hammond going 16-18 from the line.
Tech is generally better offensively against teams that send two to the ball on a drive and/or can’t defend the rim without additional help, which is, well, not Virginia basketball. The Cavs aren’t quite as special at defending straight-line attacks as you’d hope, but this UVA group generally prefers to let those drives happen rather than sending secondary help. Any sort of frontcourt action against their tremendous defensive frontcourt is not likely to end well in an efficient manner.
However, the flipside of this is really intriguing to me. As mentioned, UVA had their fourth-worst 3PT% day of the year, but Tech also forced UVA to take over half their shots from deep. That’s nothing shocking given UVA’s offensive structure - extremely attack-and-kick heavy - and given that Tech has generally preferred to drop and sit deep against opponents this year. My fear here is Tech needing another really bad UVA shooting day to survive, and that equation feels bad given UVA’s huge edge on the boards/the interior. - Will Warren
NEC semifinal #1 (#334 Stonehill at #286 Mercyhurst (-7)), 12 PM ET, ESPN+.
Stonehill and Mercyhurst split a pair of regular season OT games, winning on each other’s home floor. Mercyhurst however enjoyed a whopping +23 in field goal attempts, but also shot an unbelievable 37% on 2PT attempts and were held to their second and third lowest rim efficiency ratings of the NEC season- not ideal for an offense that can’t/won’t shoot the 3. Stonehill’s strength is unquestionably their defense, leading the NEC in 2PT% defense, but the Skyhawks were the least efficient offense in the league, with a rim finishing efficiency in the 3rd percentile and 31% 3PT shooting. Stonehill however hit 15 triples at Le Moyne in the quarterfinals, and enjoyed the spacing Hermann Koffi’s return brought to the floor. He missed the regular season finale loss to the Lakers. But barring another miraculous shooting night for the Skyhawks, the Mercyhurst shot volume edge should be the difference, assuming they can be a little more efficient than 17-37 shooting on layups like they were in the regular season series Of course the thing to keep an eye on here is if tournament ineligible Mercyhurst wins, the later game between LIU and Wagner becomes the de facto title game. - Jordan Majewski
Big South semifinal #1 (#252 UNC Asheville vs. #93 High Point (-10)), 12 PM ET, ESPN+.
As was the case for most of the league, High Point steamrolled UNC Asheville in both regular season meetings, scoring 1.3 PPP and 1.15 PPP while leading by 20+ for most of the 80 minutes played between them. High Point dominates in transition and the rim (97th and 95th percentile rates, respectively), and did just that against UNCA, out scoring the Bulldogs 32-13 in transition and 74-54 at the rim. Defensively HPU induces a high isolation rate and is super active in the gaps, creating the highest turnover rate in the league, but after they struggled a bit to contain Kam Taylor and Justin Wright in ball screens/isolations (and generated just 8 turnovers), Flynn Clayman actually threw a 2-2-1 into a 2-2-1 zone press at the Bulldogs in the second meeting, where UNCA proceeded to score at just .75 PPP in their worst offensive showing of the conference season (and just 11 total points for Wright and Taylor, who was also banged up throughout the Longwood OT win late last night).
Definitely worth noting that Owen Aquino was battling a hamstring issue throughout the Gardner-Webb game, and he's been an outstanding rim protector and hedge/recover big in this defensive scheme, but he's had more time to recover than Kam Taylor and the Bulldogs, who finished the OT game around 9 PM eastern. - Jordan Majewski
NEC semifinal #2 (#311 Wagner at #215 LIU (-8)), 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
LIU swept Wagner in a series that wasn’t particularly close, with the Sharks owning a massive rim advantage, 80-48, as they tend to do. Those were actually LIU’s two highest rim totals of the entire NEC season, but the first game at Wagner was closer because of 1-12 3PT shooting from the Sharks, compared to 10-19 when they met 4 days later at Long Island. Wagner’s other glaring issue in the regular season series was that they didn’t keep LIU out of transition enough, allowing 13 and 20 transition possessions. The Sharks can struggle when corralled in the halfcourt (just a 19th percentile efficiency rating in that regard), but the Seahawks couldn't score, and the Sharks were running off misses. Jamal Fuller played through the Chicago State scare on a bad ankle, and while he was the best player on the floor in the second meeting, all of LIU’s cadre of athletic wings were getting downhill against the Seahawks. Tend to think the top seed getting a scare in the first round due to nerves or poor play gets quickly rectified, but the Sharks could also have the added pressure of knowing that this could be the title game depending on the result of the noon game at Mercyhurst. - Jordan Majewski
Big South semifinal #2 (#274 Presbyterian vs. #144 Winthrop (-7)), 2:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
While everyone was watching the electric Battle of the Bricks and Miami OH’s undefeated regular season coronation, Presbyterian mounted a serious rally against Radford that culminated in this shot to send it to OT, where they cruised:
Winthrop meanwhile scored a mere 12 points in less than 30 seconds to beat Charleston Southern in a game that was all but over multiple times. Winthrop was resurrected by Logan Duncomb creating one of the early March Moments, playing through a broken bone in his foot and immediately changing the course of Winthrop’s offense when he emerged from the lockerroom in the 2H. We’ll see how effective he can be with no rest for that foot, but Winthrop did beat the Blue Hose (narrowly) without him last Saturday. Without Duncomb in the paint, opposing big man Jonah Pierce dominated at the rim, and Presbyterian nearly won in Rock Hill despite shooting 1-13 from 3. At Presbyterian however, Duncomb went for a tidy 38 and 15 in a dominating performance, and provided Winthrop with a substantial shot volume edge. Winthrop struggles with offenses that can spread Duncomb out in ball screens and fire away from 3 against their subsequent overhelp, but PC isn’t a team that shoots the 3 at a high rate. There’s a lot riding on that foot, as no Duncomb handicaps Winthrop’s offense and makes them less likely to stop the Piece/Peterson combo in the paint going the other way. - Jordan Majewski
#31 Saint Louis (-7) at #109 George Mason, 4 PM ET, USA Network.
This matters, just not in the same way others may matter. Saint Louis is a lock to make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens from here, and while their run into the Atlantic 10 Tournament could’ve been more pleasant, this is still a 27-3 basketball team tracking for an 8 seed or so. It’s not a bad life. What’s crazy to remember: exactly one month ago, this was tracking as a 23-1 team traveling to play 21-3. Saint Louis has largely held up their end of the bargain even with the blips; GMU is 1-5 in their last six and has given up the rope.
Both teams have their A10 Tournament seeds locked in, too (SLU obviously the 1, GMU a 5 seed), so this is kind of a Senior Day environment where every senior GMU rosters was somewhere else last year. Mason’s numbers when ‘scaling up’ this year have been brutal, as even adjusted for competition and venue, they’re nearly 12 points worse per 100 possessions against top-100 competition compared to everyone else. That stems from kind of being A10 USC in that they need to get downhill and to the line at all costs, and if they don’t, scoring is simply really hard to come by. It’s not an offense built to break down drop coverages, and a team that struggles to guard drive-and-kick threes against…Saint Louis…is probably not going to have the happiest Saturday. - Will Warren
ASUN semifinal #1 (#241 FGCU vs. #150 Central Arkansas (-6)), 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
Central Arkansas is the ASUN semis thanks to being Central Arkansas, going 13-26 from 3 against Bellarmine’s compact defense, which Cam Hunter also broke down off the dribble, besides popping it from outside (you hope his shoulder remains playable on no rest). FGCU meanwhile eased by Lipscomb, but the Bisons were an appalling 1-15 on uncontested catch and shoots and 9-18 on layups, on a 98th percentile near shot proximity rate. First meeting was a high scoring barnburner that UCA needed a late comeback in, winning despite the Eagles going 14-31 from 3 (their best volume 3PT night of the ASUN season) against the ultra compact/zone of the Bears. Second meeting was the complete opposite, with the Eagles winning despite a late lead on the road held by UCA, and despite being on the wrong side of the 3PT variance- the team who was severely outshot from 3 won each game in the series. Although 3PT variance apparently doesn’t matter between these two, in a game where both defenses allow massive catch and shoot rates, I’d rather be UCA, who runs the far superior offense and is the far superior shooting team- hopefully if you're UCA you don't go 1-15 on open 3PT attempts. - Jordan Majewski
#37 Texas A&M (-2) at #62 LSU, 6 PM ET, SEC Network.
Well, I'm sure it's for someone.
Since SEC play began this spread would be more like TAMU -5, and while I still remain in some distrust over how good TAMU actually is, they demolished LSU on the boards in the first battle to begin conference play. Then again: LSU went 14-17 at the rim, and nothing about anything TAMU does on the interior defensively excites me. LSU's coaching situation seems like a legitimate 50/50, so this carries with it the weight of Matt McMahon potentially saving his job with a win and with something to build upon. - Will Warren
ASUN semifinal #2 (#192 Queens vs. #165 Austin Peay (-1)), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
Queens and Austin Peay met only once this season, a come from behind win for the Govs in Charlotte where neither defense could get any stops- so a typical ASUN game. APSU scored a season high 27 points out of post-ups that game, with Collin Parker going for 39, almost all over his right shoulder with the Royals never really sending help.
Austin Peay meanwhile didn’t utilize the trapping zone pressure they’re synonymous with, apparently concerned about Queens’ spacing and myriad shooters and big ball handlers. It will be interesting to see if Corey Gipson cranks it up on short rest considering Queens didn’t really see it in the first meeting- but it wasn’t particularly effective yesterday against Stetson,and if Queens starts doubling Parker, considering they grade out in the 9th percentile in post defense on a 93rd percentile rate (per Synergy data)- again, like not zoning Queens, it's hard to double the post against APSU because of Parker's passing. - Jordan Majewski
#75 Providence at #84 Georgetown (-1), 8 PM ET, TruTV.
This could potentially be the least essential basketball game in modern history. Providence’s Kim English has been ‘relieved of his duties’, eventually, sometime. The only thing anyone can agree on is that it’s going to happen. When? Who knows! Meanwhile, the coach English replaced, Ed Cooley, can put a bow on what I would call the worst three-year stretch for any one coach in Georgetown history. Did Patrick Ewing finish by going 2-37? Yes, but that was two years, and he got canned for it. This is 15-44 in the worst three-year Big East in ages.
Anyway, the first game swung Georgetown’s way for a variety of reasons, but one that went undercovered is just how bad Providence’s defense was this year when it needed to force turnovers and/or stops. One of two times all season G’town gave up fewer than six points off turnovers was the win at Providence; the other was against KP #359 Binghamton. The weird but true thing: since that game, this is #63 at #62 per Torvik, and while Providence has a hilarious -7.1 turnover margin per 100 in that span, the Hoyas are -3 and are significantly worse at rebounding. I cannot rule out Providence simply returning the favor and ending Kim English’s final regular season rivalry battle on a muted high note. - Will Warren
Summit League semifinal #1 (#254 Omaha vs. #117 North Dakota State (-8)), 8 PM ET, CBSSN.
NDSU was the Summit’s clear best team and top rated defensive, but 2 of their 3 least efficient defensive performances in league play came against the defending champs. The Bison did hold on for a sweep, but trailed by double digits in the 2H at Omaha and surrendered 1.25 to the Mavs at home. Dave Richman flipped defensive schemes this year, switching and hedging on the ball screen at far higher rates than in the past, and the Mavs’ big, athletic ballhandling wings like Paul Djobet exploited mismatches.
Djobet scored 60 points in the regular season series, but it was actually Ja’Sean Glover who carried the Mavs to the semis, similarly dominating in ball screens and isolation against South Dakota. Omaha rallied late in Fargo thanks to 15-31 3PT shooting, by far their best shooting performance of the season, but that same 5 out mismatch hunting offense they deploy was shredded at the rim by NDSU’s array of post threats and aggressive cutters. The Mavs’ 5th percentile rim defense efficiency rating and league worst 2PT% defense are the glaring issues in this semifinal matchup. - Jordan Majewski
#47 Oklahoma at #33 Texas (-6), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
Let's keep this simple for you: if Texas loses, they are going to miss the NCAA Tournament. If Texas wins, they're either squarely in Dayton or just above it. Do you like game and season pressure where the road coach is probably fired and the home coach will be sweating through 12 shirts as he needs to win? I would perhaps pay attention to this game, but there's so much else on. - Will Warren
Summit League semifinal #2 (#282 North Dakota vs. #103 St. Thomas (-11)), 10:30 PM ET, CBSSN.
North Dakota punched their ticket to the semis with a steamrolling of Denver, highlighted by Greyson Uelmen’s 41 points on 13-19 from the field. The Tommies meanwhile had the night off after easing by South Dakota State, but had a highly contested series split in the regular season with UND. The Tommies won the first meeting on the road by hitting an incredible 16-24 from 3, finding the open catch and shoot with their elite ball movement and spacing against North Dakota’s relentless pressure, traps, and double teams that generated the highest turnover rate in the league.
The return match in St. Paul saw the Tommies shoot a more earthly 7-20 from 3, but stunningly give away a late lead for their only home loss in the past two seasons (in fact North Dakota was also the last team to beat the Tommies at home before that, two calendar years ago). North Dakota’s trapping defense didn’t really bother the Tommies all that much in season series, and in fact is a bit of detriment given their spacing, ball movement, and shooting strengths (plus Minessale’s size can handle the traps and pass out of them with relative ease), but the Hawks were still tied in the 2H despite the Tommies going ballistic from 3, and when that shooting leveled off in the rematch, they were able to win where no one else wins. The Tommies struggle to defend in ball screens and isolation, and that’s where Uelmen just fried Denver last night.
If the Tommies have a pedestrian shooting night, the Hawks are likely going to be able to exploit their on-ball advantages. - Jordan Majewski
#3 Arizona (-14) at #64 Colorado, 11 PM ET, ESPN2.
To be honest, we only put this here for one reason: the history of Colorado pulling off home shockers thanks to a variety of outcomes. Arizona won't be affected by the altitude as much as some others would, but even in bad seasons, the CU Events Center has snapped up some great competition. Will it happen here? Almost certainly not, but you were warned in the rare event it did happen. - Will Warren
Sunday, March 8
Hello all! A disclaimer: because we do not know the future and therefore do not know the teams playing in these conference championships just yet, we are going to edit this article on Sunday morning to include previews of the games rather than short blurbs on various hypothetical matchups. Check back Sunday morning to read about these title games!
Conference Championships
ARCH MADNESS/MVC title game: #75 Northern Iowa (-3) vs. #104 UIC, 12 PM ET, CBS.
ARCH MADNESS. Sorry, gotta say it as often as I can to keep smiling. This was obviously an unexpected final of sorts, but just based on the last two months of regular season play, UIC and UNI were the second and third-best teams in the MVC behind Belmont. Once the Bruins got yeeted from the field by Drake, this was the most likely title game.
Unlike the Drake/UIC game yesterday that had some useful background to it, this one is almost entirely a new build, as UNI/UIC played once all season in mid-January immediately after UNI lost Tristan Smith (their best defender) for a month. UIC did win at McLeod Center but the path to said win doesn't seem super sustainable, as the Panthers shot 3-24 from 3. ShotQuality graded it as a 68-64 UNI win which largely goes toward UNI holding a +7 advantage on the boards/UIC shooting 50% on midrange twos.
Since February, when Northern Iowa got Smith back, they're a top-50 team in the nation and are +6.3 in turnover margin per 100. Most shockingly: did you know they're shooting 59% 2PT/39% 3PT over their last 11 games? That feels like a thing that won't last, but UIC's super-aggressive P&R coverage (one of the 10 most aggressive in the sport this year, using the Ball Screen Aggression Index) creates a ton of catch-and-shoot three opportunities. On the flipside, UIC's offense, sputtery at best, has generally fared better against drop than more aggressive looks...which is not UNI's game.
However: small advantage to UIC here in that they're playing one fewer game than the Panthers, I do believe UNI is due for some jumper regression, and UIC may have a tiny shot volume edge here. Then again - UIC is +22% from two in the MVC-T and I'm not sure that can hold either. Neither is super-reliant on jumpers, which could negate Arch Madness's point-muting effect. Lean UNI, and FWIW since Smith came back the spread on this at Torvik would be about UNI -4.5. - Will Warren
Big South title game: #93 High Point (-5) vs. #146 Winthrop, 12 PM ET, ESPN2.
We got what we wanted in the Big South final, a third battle between High Point and Winthrop and a rematch of last year’s title game that saw High Point erase a 15 point 2H lead with the second team. The regular season series split this year saw Winthrop post the two highest offensive efficiency ratings High Point’s defense allowed in the Big South. I actually previewed both regular season matchups here at BUR. Here’s what I wrote ahead of the first meeting:
"Top 2 teams in the Big South meet in Rock Hill when Winthrop hosts High Point. I've noted this before, but Flynn Clayman has totally departed the Huss Bus in terms of defensive scheme, as his iteration of the Panthers is really aggressive in the gaps and on the ball screen, generating the highest TO rate in the league, the opposite of the Huss drop. Winthrop however has multiple shot creators and turns the ball over at one of the 20 lowest rates in the country. Ironically it's Winthrop that's in drop coverage more this season with Logan Duncomb at the 5, but High Point has two high level ball screen creators in Rob Martin and Conrad Martinez. No word on Cam Fletcher's return in what has become a prolonged absence away from the team, but HPU was a net -15 when he was on the floor, per EvanMiya adjusted on/off efficiency splits. Ultimately I think Winthrop's backcourt can handle High Point's ball screen coverage, and they're started to show some positive 3PT shooting regression against Upstate, which actually RAISED their Big South 3PT% to 27%. This is Winthrop's first crack at the Panthers after blowing a 15 point 2H lead in last year's Big South title game."
And then this was from Weekend Watchlist Week 16:
"So how did all of that pan out? Winthrop went a solid 10-26 from 3, but more importantly, they absolutely destroyed High Point’s defensive aggression, slipping and cutting to the rim with outstanding short roll passing from Logan Duncomb and a massive 24 points via cuts.
High Point meanwhile tallied their lowest rim total of the Big South season, marking the first of only two times they’ve been outscored in the paint in conference play. Winthrop turned the ball over at just a 13% rate in that first meeting, which is 10% below HPU’s Big South turnover rate forced, and the Eagles clearly have the requisite spacing and ball movement to beat this aggressive defensive scheme. High Point however is looking to close out back to back undefeated home seasons in the Big South, while Winthrop hasn’t lost in the calendar year 2026."
So then how did game 2 pan out? High Point controlled the game for 30+ minutes, but Winthrop rallied to take a late 2H lead. HPU took away those cuts from the first meeting as they played the ball screen with more drop coverage the second time around, but Winthrop spammed Duncomb in the post (23 and 14 for the Big South POY) and dominated the shot volume, with 18 more field goal attempts than the Panthers. Winthrop was also +8 at the rim, which means the Eagles outscored HPU in rim points in both meetings. High Point however did most of their damage in the second meeting in transition, scoring 25 points in that regard despite just 10 turnovers from Winthrop, as the Panthers ran off misses relentlessly, using Terry Anderson’s slashing in quick offense.
Of course circumstances are different in the rubber match with both teams playing their third game in three days, and Mark Prosser was clearly hoping to get past Presbyterian without using Duncomb, but he ultimately had to break the glass and the big man gritted out 11 effective minutes. HPU’s center Owen Aquino is injured as well with a hamstring issue, but he played 20 minutes before fouling out in the semis. Three point shooting has been a struggle for both teams in Johnson City, as they’ve combined to go 28% in the tournament to date, so Winthrop outplaying the league’s best rim offense at the rim in both meetings seems of huge importance, but obviously the massive bright red caveat in that regard is Duncomb’s ability to stay on the floor with his foot injury. The Big South title likely hinges on how many effective minutes he can tough out. - Jordan Majewski
ASUN title game: #147 Central Arkansas (-3) vs. #186 Queens (NC), 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
We’ll have a first timer with the ASUN winner, as Central Arkansas and Queens have both never appeared in a bracket. UCA swept the regular season series, with the last meeting coming on the final day of the regular season. First meeting was a 100-90 shootout that saw a combined 29-65 3PT shooting display, and the Royals actually held a substantial 2H lead at home, but could not stay in front of UCA’s guards, particularly Cam Hunter, who went for 31, scoring off the dribble and even posting up Queens’ bigger guards routinely.
UCA's ability to score at the rim consistently and efficiently was the difference in the series, as the 3PT shooting cooled off on both sides in Charlotte, but the Bears held a massive 78-48 advantage in terms of points at the rim in the series, with Hunter tacking on another 30 burger in the second meeting to carry UCA to victory. The interesting schematic angle is that UCA plays a trapping zone frequently, much like Austin Peay, who Queens just shredded in the semis. Indeed, the Royals shredded UCA's zone looks in the first meeting, but John Shulman only zoned on 5 possessions in the second meeting, UCA's second lowest zone rate of the ASUN season. However that in turn created a matchup advantages for Queens' big hybrid guards Jordan Watford, Yoav Berman, and Nasir Mann, who exploited that in UCA's man to man ball screen coverage.
While I do tend to gravitate towards individual matchup winners in March (and Queens has the edge there with their guard/wing size), it's hard to overlook the fact UCA so throughouly outplayed Queens (the league's most efficient 2PT% offense) at the rim in the season series, and won with their second highest man to man rate of the ASUN season in the regular season finale. - Jordan Majewski
Summit League title game: #113 North Dakota State (-10) vs. #279 North Dakota, 9 PM ET, CBSSN.
Guga Natsvlishvili, a 58% FT shooter, winning the semifinal against St. Thomas with a free throw was a pretty improbable ending, especially when he had bricked and airballed his prior two attempts. As a result, we have an all North Dakota matchup in the Summit finals, a series NDSU swept against their rival in the span of two weeks to close the regular season.
Here’s what I wrote at BUR ahead of NDSU/UND’s first meeting in Grand Forks:
"Coming into this season, Anthony Smith was generally considered to be the jewel of Paul Sather’s recruiting class at North Dakota, but he has been completely overshadowed by another freshman combo guard in Greyson Uelmen. The downhill contact seeker has been on a tear for the past month, which has coincided with UND’s rise up the Summit standings, setting up a huge matchup with rival NDSU in their biggest home game of the season. Uelmen isn’t the biggest or strongest guy on the ball, but he’s a relentless dribble prober and a creative finisher at the rim.
The problem for the Hawks is that NDSU is extremely aggressive defending the ball screen, trapping and blitzing at one of the highest rates in the country, which requires offenses to have strong spacing and ball movement. UND is near dead last in assist rate nationally and has one shooter in Zach Kraft.
While NDSU traps and doubles at a top 25 rate nationally, no defense does it at a higher rate than UND, which has led to the highest turnover rate forced in the league (made even more effective by the fact they don’t turn it over offensively, creating a +8% delta in that regard in Summit play).
UND has to force those turnovers because they’re one of the worst rim defenses in the entire country. While UND doesn’t have the spacing or ball movement to beat NDSU’s two to the ball defense, the same can’t be said about the Bison, an offense shooting nearly 40% from 3 in Summit play on a high rate with third highest assist rate as well.
Biggest game of the year at the Betty (and nationally televised) and the Bison have dropped the last 2 meetings there, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks pull it out (and would lean their way ATS), but in a battle of two aggressive defenses, the Bison are the more equipped team offensively."
NDSU ended up winning that first meeting (and the rematch) with ease, and it was indeed because of their paint dominance, out scoring UND at the rim 76-43 in the series- with the second meeting being a true laugher as NDSU decided to add 16-29 3PT shooting on top of their rim dominance. The one wrinkle UND has for the third meeting is the return of Josh Jones, who isn’t the most imposing force at the rim, but is UND’s best individual post defender by far, and the Hawks have been +8 defensively when he’s been on the floor, per EvanMiya adjusted on/off efficiency data.
Defensively NDSU effectively hedged out Uelmen and generally made his life difficult when he was able to get to the ball screen. Uelmen had 2 of his 5 lowest usage rates in league play against the Bison, and averaged 14 points in the series (for reference he’s averaging 34.5 points per game in the Summit tourney).
While UND might be more equipped with Jones to at least somewhat limit NDSU’s post and rim onslaught the third time around, NDSU’s spacing, ball movement, and shooting are still major issues against UND’s aggressive defensive scheme. Additionally, NDSU’s defensive game plan against Uelmen has been outstanding in both meetings. - Jordan Majewski
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#10 Michigan State at #2 Michigan (-10), 4:30 PM ET, CBS.
I am tempted to run back the same structure of a preview I gave for Michigan/Iowa: this will either be a 40-minute celebration of one of the great regular seasons in recent memory for Michigan, or it will be potentially one of the funniest results of the entire season for Michigan State. (Not for me. My dad went to Michigan, so that would be not fun. For everyone else, though.) Largely, all of that is true and compounded by a rivalry that seems to get angrier in funnier ways by the year.
I don’t think the first game was quite as slanted towards Michigan as the boxscore would make it appear, especially given that all of the winning margin could be attributed to three-point variance. Considering almost all else was equal while Michigan shot 38% from deep to MSU’s 17%, I’d allow it. But! The best rebounding team in America not named Florida or Tennessee being unable to power through Michigan straight-up on the boards at home was, at worst, a little alarming. Then again: they played Michigan. Forgivable.
I think this one’s more coin-flippy than it appears simply because of the 3PT% aspect but that largely depends on if State can hang 1-on-1 in guarding Michigan down low. State did a tremendous job in true post-ups the first time around but got got several times in P&R, which is wont to happen when 1) Michigan’s guards have the turnover issues they do from time to time, and 2) you gotta take risks, and sometimes risks result in wide-open dunks by Mara and crew.
On the other side of the ball, I have a simple question: can Jeremy Fears win this game all by himself? I think there’s a path towards making this a 1-on-1 clearout game, as insane as that sounds, with Fears careening downhill at high speeds and forcing Michigan’s bigs to defend him without fouling. That’s gotten harder and harder lately, even for really good defenses. All in all, it’s likely too tall of a task for MSU to pull off, but hey, we’ve seen stranger. And on America’s Most Watched Network! - Will Warren
B Game
#23 Iowa at #12 Nebraska (-6), 5 PM ET, FOX.
Senior Day for Rienk Mast and Sam Hoiberg Nebraska, so I'm anticipating this one to be very emotional for coach and program. These situations have serious variance to them for me - sometimes the team comes out almost too excited to play and works themselves into a tizzy, trailing for most of the first half. If Nebraska stays level-headed, they could be the beneficiary of their own runout to begin the game.
Interestingly, since Nebraska's first loss to Michigan, this is the 29th-best team in America at Torvik...but Iowa is 42nd during this span and offers nothing in the way of decent rim protection to slow down Mast or any downhill driver. One thing I do find interesting, though: over these last 10 games, Nebraska is +7.4% from 3 while Iowa is -8%. That's some extreme two-way shooting regression that seems overdue, even if other game aspects (such as, of course, Iowa having a lack of rim protection) remain stable. As such, tempted a little bit here to zag and pick Iowa. Can Ben McCollum complete a shock sweep? - Will Warren
C Games
Patriot League semifinals: #264 Boston University at #140 Navy (-8), 12 PM ET, CBSSN...and #245 Colgate (-1) at #295 Lehigh, 2 PM ET, CBSSN.
As Pat in our Discord joked, the Patriot League needed a Redzone channel on Thursday night. All four quarterfinals had their fair share of insanity: Lehigh won on a half court buzzer beater, top seed Navy trailed for 30 minutes before barely surviving late, and Boston U outlasted American in back-and-forth final three minutes. Only old faithful Colgate won convincingly, and even the Raiders needed 30+ minutes to fully pull away.
In the end, all four home teams – the top four seeds – managed to get through to the semis. That sets up some huge matchups, though Navy is still a comfortable favorite over BU in Annapolis. The Terriers are hot, having won eight of their last nine contests.
The Terriers’ late victory meant that Navy avoided American, the only team to knock off the Mids in league play this year. Navy’s sweep of BU was not entirely convincing: Jon Perry’s team won by five at home and eight on the road. Curiously, the Midshipmen took 30 free throws in their home game compared to just two on the road. The whistle will be key – the charity stripe is usually a major advantage for Navy (reminder, this is a Navy home game).
One small thing to keep an eye on: the emergence of Cam Cole for Navy. The Mids returned all five starters from last year, but Cole has been a major plus as a sixth man, tallying 16 points apiece in each of Navy’s last two games. He was the emotional spark plug that fueled Navy’s comeback against Bucknell on Thursday.
On the other side, Lehigh won both meetings against Colgate by a single point (the game at Lehigh went to overtime). You could argue Colgate choked away both games: they led 75-70 at home with 90 seconds left before falling 78-77, and they were up 68-65 at Lehigh before the Mountain Hawks forced OT and eventually won. There are few better test cases for revenge / the nebulous “it is hard to beat a good team three times”.
Jalen Cox dominated both games, averaging 28.0 PPG across the two contests. After missing Colgate’s regular season finale, he looked fully healthy against Loyola MD on Thursday, exploding for a highly efficient 21 points and 11 assists in 38 minutes. Lehigh’s Nasir Whitlock can match him point for point, but I’d guess Cox is the best player on the floor here.
Last note: Lehigh shot 23-of-44 (52.3%) from beyond the arc in the two games combined. Colgate, meanwhile, hit 10-of-32 (31.3%). Unless Lehigh repeats that 3P dominance for a third time, I’d expect Colgate to find a way to win this one. – Jim Root
SoCon semifinals: #148 ETSU (-5) vs. #229 Western Carolina at 4 PM ET and #201 Furman (-6) vs. #301 UNCG at 6:30 PM ET, ESPNU.
Western Carolina has somewhat out of nowhere been a top 100 team over the past month, and they just whipped Mercer on the glass last night to get to the semis, snagging an unbelievable 25 offensive rebounds. The Catamounts also swept top seed ETSU in the regular season, which included 1.31 PPP at Freedom Hall, the worst defensive showing of the entire season for the Bucs. ETSU plays two to the ball, and WCU’s high PNR rate played off that, scoring 1.5 PPP off cuts at a high rate behind the Bucs’ defense, and there seemingly wasn’t much of an adjustment in game 2 to counter that.
We’ll see if the WCU rim defense can hold up against ETSU’s rim onslaught offensively, as the Bucs missed 16 layups in the regular season sweep. The Mounts aren’t a particularly strong unit in that regard, but they got big rim protection minutes from Abdulai Kabba last night against Mercer, who was a DNP in the second meeting vs ETSU. Speaking of DNPs, I would make sure Marcus Kell is in the lineup, he did remain in after a brutal fall at the end of the Mercer game last night, but it looked painful.
What a stat line from Justin Neely yesterday in UNCG's quarterfinal victory over Wofford: 22 and 24 on just 7 field goal attempts. Neely's 12-14 free throw shooting was essentially the difference, as Wofford outperformed the Spartans in virtually every other category. UNCG however has been the bain of Bob Richey's existence at Furman, as their super sag defensively generally clogs up and bumps off all of Furman's cutting and screening actions. Richey is just 3-7 straight up against Mike Jones, but ironically Furman posted their highest efficiency rating ever against this defense this season when they were super shorthanded and Richey filtered all his motion inside out through Ben Vander Wal and moved Alex Wilkins into an off-ball role, where he thrived as a scorer, and finished with 0 turnovers, the only game of the season where that was the case. Vander Wal finished with a career high 8 assists that game. Fascinating x's and o's battle in that regard. - Jordan Majewski
MAAC semifinals: #173 Merrimack (-2) vs. #207 Marist at 6 PM ET and #209 Siena (-3) vs. #258 Fairfield at 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
Marist vs the Merrimack zone this season? .74 PPP in 101 zone offense possessions. That's the primary reason the Red Foxes graded out in the 2nd percentile vs a 90th percentile zone offense rate. Justin Menard has carried the shorthanded Red Foxes down the stretch, but two of his least efficient offensive games of the season came against the Joe Gallo zone. Conversely, Kevair Kennedy has dropped 42 points against the John Dunne drop, with the Warriors taking the regular season series with ease.
The Atlantic City nightcap features Siena vs the red hot Fairfield Stags, who have been revitalized by a healthy Brandon Benjamin. Benjamin has been the best player on the floor in Atlantic City, dominating in virtually every aspect of the game. Ironically he was a DNP in Fairfield's regular season win over the Saints, but the Stags lost when he was a perfect 10-10 on 2PT attempts in Albany. Antonio Chandler's defense being lost to ineligibility is a blow in this regard. Benjamin is such a push pull presence though, as defensively he had issues vs Siena's PNRs in the first meeting, and multifunctional Gavin Doty was a perfect 9-9 from the field (can't recall many, if any, games where two players on opposing sides didn't miss a 2PT attempt). Doty vs the Stags this season: 50 points on 18-27 shooting. - Jordan Majewski
Sun Belt semifinals: #158 Troy (-3) vs. #217 Southern Miss at 6 PM ET and #198 Marshall (-2) vs. #231 Georgia Southern at 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
The appropriately nicknamed Bully Weeks has dominated this tournament so far for Southern Miss, as 3 of his 4 highest ball screen rates of the season have come in Pensacola. Weeks is just using his size to abuse mismatches and either bully his way to the rim or the free throw line.
Is it the prettiest form of offense? No, but it’s been highly effective, as USM is +28 in FT attempts in the tournament, and haven’t scored at less than 1.2 PPP in 3 games despite averaging just 10 3PT attempts.
Troy and USM split in the regular season, with Weeks having his second least efficient game of the SBC season at Troy, who generally dropped on his ball screen to deny rim access. Second meeting in Hattiesburg was a totally different story however, with Weeks dropping 32 on the Trojans, mostly in tough midrange shot making. Scott Cross is more or less going to be pleased with this type of shot though.
The blowout at Troy saw the Trojans shoot 11-25 from 3 and USM struggle to a 26% turnover rate without the secondary ballhandling of Isaac Taveras- a clear recipe of a lopsided margin. The second meeting saw more normalized rates in those regards, and Weeks went bananas in the midrange shotmaking, but what concerns me is that Troy still had a fairly substantial late 2H lead on the road in that game, and USM allowed a 97th and 92nd percentile 2PT attempt proximity rate to the Trojans in the series. Similar vibes to last season's SBC tourney, where Troy swooped in an Old Dominion team playing out of their minds but on their 4th game in 4 days, just like USM this evening. Troy has been a strong 2H team this year, and that's something to watch as this game progresses on USM's legs.
Thought Georgia Southern’s 3PT bombing would curtail on their 4th game in 4 days? Think again. The Eagles, led by Tyren Moore once again, shot 12-29 from 3, putting them at 45% from beyond the arc in Pensacola, hitting double digit triples in all 4 contests. More importantly however, a day after attempting just 8 2PT field goals against USA’s zone, the Eagles shot 64% on 2PT attempts, mostly Moore snaking through Coastal’s drop coverage. Moore dropped 40 points and the Eagles scored 31 points on ball screens.
The Eagles will have a fresh Marshall team making their Pensacola debut, but Georgia Southern swept the regular season series, averaging 100 points on 1.33 PPP, shooting 28-58 from 3. Tyren Moore himself was 16-25 from 3 in the series, and the first game vs the Herd kicked off his current stretch where he’s an unbelievable 52-107 from (49%) over his last 9 games. I’ve noted it ad nauseam at this point, but since Matt Van Komen’s foot injury ahead of Marshall’s Feb 4 game vs Southern Miss, the Herd have performed as one of the 5 worst defenses in the entire country (much of that thanks to the 2 games vs Georgia Southern). The Herd however have also been a top 70 offense in that stretch.
5th game in 5 days is basically unprecedented, but talk about having a shooter’s chance in this matchup if you’re the Eagles. I hope they see a 6th game in 6 days. - Jordan Majewski
