Head coach Ben Jacobson has accomplished a lot as head coach of Northern Iowa since taking over in 2006. Perhaps there are still some firsts for him, though...
Winning the Missouri Valley Tournament and reaching the Big Dance isn't a first for Jacobson — he has done it five times now — but doing so while having to win four games in four days is. And it's not just a first for him — it's a first for anyone. Due in large part to a five-game losing streak in mid-January while playing without Tristan Smith, Northern Iowa only earned the No. 6 seed to the Missouri Valley Tournament.
With four wins over Thursday-through-Sunday, though, Jacobson's Panthers turned the "Gateway to the West" into their gateway to the NCAA Tournament. They pushed past Evansville and Illinois State in their first two games with elite defense, holding their foes to a combined 111 points. In the semifinals and championship game, they pushed past concerns about tired legs by connecting on 18-of-32 (56.3%) 3s in wins over Bradley and UIC.
Four-year starting point guard and program vet Trey Campbell more than earned his first NCAA Tournament appearance with his play in Arch Madness as well. He averaged 17.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.3 blocks on 14-for-29 (48.3%) from three over the four games en route to earning Tournament MVP.
Campbell embodies UNI, which ranks third nationally in minutes continuity from last year, and sets the tone on both ends for the now-dancing Panthers.
UNI slows down, suffocates opponents defensively.
Northern Iowa is set to enter the NCAA Tournament as one of the nation's best defensive teams. Unlike other automatic bids, there is no need to add the qualifier of "among mid-majors" — UNI ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom and Bart Torvik.
If the Panthers land on the No. 12 seed line, they would be the 11th-highest-ranked defensive team to earn such a seed during the Torvik era (2008-present). If they end up as a No. 13, they would be the highest-ranked defensive team on Torvik to earn the seed since 2008. Suffice it to say, some No. 4 or 5 seed will be tasked with facing a double-digit seed with an uncommonly strong defense.
Northern Iowa's defense grinds out games, slowing opponents to the ninth-longest average offensive possession length in the country. The Panthers limit close shot attempts (97th percentile for at-the-rim attempt rate defense), eliminate 3-point efficiency (third-best 3P% allowed nationally), plus rank in the top 50 for both defensive rebounding rate and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Opportunistic defense is not exactly a staple, with nearly as many non-steal turnovers forced as steals, but they still rank top 100 in TO% created.
Trey Campbell (13.5 pints, 3.8 assists) and Leon Bond (11.7 points) not only lead Northern Iowa in scoring, but are also the tone-setters defensively. Campbell ranks 202nd nationally in steal rate, while Bond is a big-time athlete with terrific strength. Both were named to the Missouri Valley's All-Defensive Team.
Health led to needing to win four games in four days
With a defense as strong as it was, it is reasonable to question how Northern Iowa ended up as the No. 6 seed in the Missouri Valley Tournament and needing to win four games in four days to earn the league's automatic bid. While a number of reasons contributed, it might simply boil down to health.
Northern Iowa has only had its top six players — Trey Campbell, Leon Bond, Will Hornseth, Max Weisbrod, Tristan Smith, and Ben Schwieger — all available (min. 3 minutes played) in 22 of 35 games this season. The Panthers went just 6-7 without either Weisbrod or Smith, including losing five straight MVC games (and six of seven) in early January.
When all six have been available, their defense has suffocated opponents into scoring just 96.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions, per Hoop-Explorer — equivalent to No. 15 in the country. More importantly, the offense has skyrocketed when the Panthers have had all six available, which it now has for each of its last 12 games (9-3 record):
Northern Iowa has had its core six available for every game since Feb. 8, and has ranked 44th in adjusted efficiency over that time frame on Bart Torvik — ahead of teams like BYU, Villanova, Saint Louis, Clemson, Iowa, Utah State, and UCF.
UNI is still reliant on first-shot halfcourt offense.
Even with the massive offensive improvement in games with all six of the core available, Northern Iowa's efficiency on that end of the floor still ranks equivalent to sub-100 in those games. A major reason for that is a near-complete lack of second-chance points (356th in OR%) and free-throw attempts (362nd in FTR). Additionally, many of their turnovers forced defensively are of the non-steal variety, leading to fewer transition opportunities; they rate in the 98th percentile for half court field goal attempt rate, per CBB Analytics.
With the offense living in the half court but failing to secure second-chances or free-throw attempts, Northern Iowa's efficiency comes down to its first-shot offense against a set defense. As such, it can be extremely volatile from game-to-game. When it comes to upset potential, though, perhaps a steady defense and a volatile offense is the right recipe. If the Panthers get hot offensively, they have the potential to knock off anyone. So far this season, though, they are 0-5 against the KenPom top 100. Their best win came on the road over KP No. 106 UC Irvine.
The bright side is that the Panthers have been much better in the half court with the full complement of its core six down the stretch. Over the last 10 games, they have shot 48.1% in half court settings, equivalent to the 99th percentile if extrapolated over a full season. They are shooting 55.7% on half court 2s and 36.8% on half court 3s over the stretch.
Hornseth (13.6 points), Campbell (13.5 points), and Bond (13.1 points) have been the leading triumvirate over the last 12 games, but Weisbrod/Schwieger have combined to shoot 38-for-88 (43.2%) from three around them. Campbell is the four-year point guard and Bond is the high-flyer, but Weisbrod's 3-point profile makes him a potential game-changer in March. Nearly 90% of Weisbrod's field goal attempts have been from three this season, and he has connected on 38.7% of them — including 42.9% over his last 12 games.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
Northern Iowa earned a No. 12 seed at the NCAA Tournament. In terms of seed strength, the Tournament Index grades the Panthers as the 40th-strongest No. 12 seed of the last 13 tournaments (out of 52 teams. For Northern Iowa, the TI projects an average of 0.27 wins given its seed and team strength.
