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We're breaking down the top matchups of the day, every day.
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*KenPom spread is referenced in the article
Notre Dame vs. Villanova (-7)
Rome, Italy | 9:30 AM ET | FOX
Assuming the Pope is able to be there - I hear he's quite busy these days - he should be in for an interesting strategic battle between two very different teams. The more I've looked at this matchup it seems quite bad for Notre Dame, who doesn't have the thing that killed Villanova last year (good-to-great frontcourts) and likely will not be able to slow down Villanova's own highly improved frontcourt to a significant extent.
So: what do you do? Notre Dame generally prefers to hard hedge ball screens, which did give the Wildcats trouble. Synergy's data implies Villanova's TO% was around ~4% higher against hedge coverage than any other type, and while there's some variance and curiosity involved in that, I do think this is a pretty real test of Nova's new-look point guard rotation. I'm assuming Elijah Crawford and Darryl Simmons II will split time at the 1. Simmons is a safer pair of hands, but Crawford is more explosive; he's able to get his own but had turnover issues especially against more committed coverages last season.
On the flip side, the Villanova mega-drop coverage isn't forcing many turnovers but it's also not going to allow many second chance points. I would wager the upset potential - and probably the entire game - comes down to Notre Dame being able to hit jumpers. Given the unfamiliar shooting backdrop I'd lean no, especially given my personal expectations that 45%+ of Notre Dame shots will be from deep. In their exhibitions, Notre Dame took almost half of all their shots from deep. If you want to win this I'd guess Notre Dame has to shoot at least 40% from downtown unless Nova has a huge stinker of their own. Seems like a game Villanova wins by 8-12 or so where Notre Dame is never down by more than 15 but also never closer than 5 in the second half. - Will Warren
Liberty vs. High Point (-9)
Rock Hill, SC | 12:00 AM ET (Monday) | YouTube
The opener of the Field of 68’s 24-hour marathon is a doozy. Both Liberty and High Point are dominant forces in their conferences, with the two programs accumulating 30-8 and 29-3 league records, respectively, over the last two seasons combined.
They win in drastically different ways, though, which should make for a fascinating midnight clash. Under Ritchie McKay, Liberty is a meticulous half-court team that rarely turns it over and generates outstanding looks via a ruthlessly half-court attack, while High Point is a transition monster that can roll over foes with power conference talent.
Liberty’s attack is tremendously analytically sound: the Flames are extremely averse to long 2s (2nd percentile, per CBB Analytics), and they ranked top five nationally in unguarded jump shot rate, per Synergy. They led the entire country in points per possession against man-to-man defense, and though the roster is turned over, McKay’s attack has plenty of weapons. Brothers Cooper and Cobi Campbell are lethal long-range marksmen, and Eli Sancomb and Dillon Claussen are matchup problems with their size and versatility.
For that reason, expect High Point to mix in some zone (12.9% of the time last year, per Synergy). The Panthers are not short on athletes – this roster is completely loaded – but defending the Liberty motion is a burdensome endeavor. High Point will need to rebound out of those looks to spark the transition attack, because Liberty will not fuel that onslaught with turnovers.
This one likely comes down to who controls the pace. If High Point can ride the start-of-season emotional wave (and the funky start time) to an up-tempo game, the Panthers have the advantage. But if Liberty slows the game down, the Flames can make up for the talent gap via pristine execution. - Jim Root
Northern Illinois (-1) vs. Grambling State
Rock Hill, SC | 3:00 AM ET (Monday) | YouTube
I've been hyping up new Northern Illinois head coach Matt Majkrzak so much this offseason that I'm actually inclined to totally ruin my sleep schedule for the week and stay up to watch this 3 AM tilt. Some sacrifices are worth making.
The Huskies didn't help my dilemma when their one on-record October exhibition game was a 79-66 victory over typical MAC power Toledo. Obviously it's just an exhibition that we have no box score for, but that was a matchup that the Rockets won by double digits twice last year. This is not your Northern Illinois group of years past.
Majkrzak's Northern Michigan team led all of D-II in offensive rating last year, and given he's bringing two starters and reuniting with a third former player in Northern Iowa's Max Weisbrod (38% from deep last year), it's fair to expect this group to be offensive-minded. At the same time, this team is not all that athletic and I would expect them to rarely look out in transition for offense. Only four teams in all of D-II last year ran a fewer percentage of their possessions in transition than Northern Michigan.
With that in mind, Grambling State will certainly have the length and athleticism edge. Head coach Patrick Crarey recruited heavily from the JUCO space, adding 6-foot-6 point guard Grigorije Avramovic, 6-foot-6 twin wings Antoine and Antonio Shannon, and 6-foot-9 forward Tyler Bey. They also bring in former 4-star, 7-foot-1 big man Isaiah Miranda to man the middle.
Even though Grambling State will win the athleticism battle, it will face an uphill battle because it faces Majkrzak with ample prep time. This is a head coach that famously pre-scripts plays and lineup changes for the first 30 minutes of a game. The season-opener feels like the best time to have a fully-scouted out plan with that type of strategy.
This game should not be fast; expect the final score to be much lower than the BUR projection. But unless Grambling's length and pressure totally gets the Huskies' well-schemed sets all disoriented, the offensively-skilled group should be able to pick apart its opponent. Northern Illinois should win comfortably by way of "death by a thousand paper cuts." - Matthew Winick
Merrimack (-3) vs. Appalachian State
Rock Hill, SC | 6:00 AM ET (Monday) | YouTube
This is typically when I get up on the average weekday to go run anyway, so the first 15 minutes of this over morning coffee should be quite productive in the sense that by the time it's time to run, neither team will have touched 30 points yet. All of the jokes about this game are true: it will be very defensive and quite slow and neither team is really built to exploit the other defensively. So, yes, great morning coffee fare.
In the event you are up and running and want to watch two similar teams beat each other with loose bundles of scrap metal, you're in for a treat. App's dribble drive offense plays right into the teeth of the Merrimack amorphous zone and while this is different-ish, Sacred Heart and Saint Peter's both eschew off-ball motion to run stuff through the post with, predictably, a lot of ISOs. The Warriors ate both alive last year, going 4-1 against those two and only getting got by Saint Peter's in the only way Metro teams can typically get Merrimack: offensive boards and the foul line. Even in a double-digit loss, Merrimack still generated turnovers on 23% of possessions.
The flipside is that Merrimack runs a ton of off-ball motion and App State has consistently eaten off-ball motion for breakfast under Dustin Kerns, turning most possessions into slogs. In ball screens, I'd guess App largely drops here and tells Merrimack, "sure, go ahead," with regard to shooting over the top of them in an unfamiliar environment at, you know, 6 AM local. Totally buy that this is a race to 60, and that may not even happen. - Will Warren
Queens vs. Winthrop (-1)
Rock Hill, SC | 9:00 AM ET (Monday) | YouTube
In a rematch from the first game of last year's Field of 68 tournament, Winthrop and Queens should deliver one of the most exciting games of the entire Monday slate. This back-and-forth affair last year saw Winthrop erase a late five-point deficit and win 81-74.
The most important takeaway from that game to this one is that Queens superstar Jordan Watford only played 10 minutes in that contest, partially due to it being a freshman's first college game ever, and partially due to four fouls. Given how impactful Watford was to Queens' offense and pace when he was on the floor last year, expect far more than 74 points from the Royals this go-around.
You should also expect a crazy amount of free throws in this game. Winthrop was tenth in free throw rate last year, and they are fresh off a matchup with Georgia Southern in the exhibition slate that combined for 74 free throws. Not to be outdone, Watford drew the most fouls in the ASUN last year, and Queens got to the free throw line 34 times in an exhibition against Charleston Southern.
To that end, watch out for freshman guard Caleb Jones for Queens, who is looking to replicate Watford's freshman success with the program. He scored 20 points per game in Queens' two public exhibitions. Depth may be a big deal here because of the fouls.
All told, this will be a battle between two speedy teams with guards who love to get into the paint. Considering referees love to blow their whistles early in the season, I would expect the free throw tally to soar over the 47 from this matchup last year. In that case, give me the team with the best player in Watford, in a game that could very well hit the 90s in points. - Matthew Winick
