Welcome to the daily watchlist!
We're breaking down the top matchups of the day, every day.
Click on each projected score to get the full game preview in the Basket Under Review app.
*KenPom spread is referenced in the article
Tennessee State vs. Murray State (-9)
Rock Hill, SC | 11:30 AM ET | YouTube
Listen, I love High Point just as much as the next guy, but there is definitely a part of me that can't stop thinking about how Murray State may actually be that true, dominant, at-large mid-major team in the country this year. The Racers and returning stud Roman Domon will look to start that quest on Monday against Tennessee State.
The biggest change you'll see in Year Two of the Ryan Miller era for the Racers is a defensive shift. Last year, Murray State played one of the softest drop coverages in the nation, a staple of Miller's old boss Greg McDermott. But after hiring defensive-minded assistant Tony Barbee, it seems like the program is going to try something new here. After all, they did finish 244th defensively.
In the preseason, Murray State forced an 18%, 28%, and 17% turnover rate out of its three opponents. Last year, it forced over 18% in just nine of its 33 games. The Racers' disciplined scheme had them rank second-nationally in 3-point rate allowed last year at 27.4%. All three of their opponents in the preseason took at least 36% of their shots from deep. Murray State is extremely deep and athletic with length at every position, so the change to a more switch-heavy pressure scheme makes tons of sense.
It also probably spells doom for Tennessee State, a group highlighted by three former Power Conference recruits who's poor play have pushed them all the way down to the OVC. Ty-Laur Johnson and Arterio Morris are the only true ball handlers for Nolan Smith's group, and their collective 186 assists to 157 turnovers against largely WCC and SWAC competition is a major concern here.
Tennessee State's other highlight is former 5-star big man Aaron Bradshaw, but I'd actually argue Murray State has the two-best bigs in this game. Murray State added highly touted Euro big Pavle Nikolic who was just deemed eligible by the NCAA. The Racers also brought over an inter-conference transfer in Belmont's Brigham Rogers. Rogers played 44% of minutes for No. 69 Belmont last year. Bradshaw played 42.5% of minutes for No. 133 Memphis. You be the judge here.
All things considered, I think this late-morning tilt shows us that Murray State may mean business in the at-large conversation, while Tennessee State shows that the trio of Johnson, Bradshaw, and Morris fell to this level for a reason. - Matthew Winick
McNeese (-1) vs. UAB
Rock Hill, SC | 5:30 PM ET | YouTube
It's a true Beggars Can't Be Choosers moment in that I wish the Field of 68 crew had swapped the start time of this with NKU/UTEP. I am more interested in this game, but it's going to get buried amongst the evening games. Alas, can't win 'em all. This seems 1) very evenly matched in terms of athleticism, and 2) very amenable to a fun basketball game with some defensive extremes on each end.
This McNeese team is off the charts for Southland standards in terms of pure athleticism attributes and has a real argument for being the most physically impressive mid-major you'll see this season. This does not traditionally mean a super-fun half-court offense, with McNeese frequently resorting to ISO City to beat their opponents 1-on-1, but if you let the Cowboys loose in transition it's a heck of a time. UAB was moderately effective in limiting opponent transition opportunities last year but it's not often a huge strength of Andy Kennedy's defenses; it is imperative they force McNeese into as many 15+ second possessions as possible here, particularly as McNeese figures things out.
On the flip side the McNeese triple-switch is still in place this year to my knowledge, which would have played very well into UAB's offensive strengths last year but could make for an interesting chess match this year. Interestingly, when UAB played the upper-tier version of this in NC State last year, UAB got a ton of offensive rebounds back (36% of missed shots) and shot a highly respectable 54% from 3. The problem: the Will Wade triple-switch, uh, 'forced' UAB to shoot 16% from deep and they lost by 24. I don't think that happens here but to land the plane UAB's going to need to be comfortable hitting jumpers, which they 100% weren't last year. - Will Warren
Florida (-7) vs. Miami FL
Tampa, FL | 6:00 PM ET | ESPN2
In a new college basketball landscape where size and two-way rim dominance and rebounding are everything, Florida and Miami stand out as two teams that have massive advantages inside. The Gators ranked in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive 2-point defense and two-way rebounding last year, while the Hurricanes did the same on the glass alone.
Everyone and their mother knows Florida returns all three of its star frontcourt members from last season, but Miami getting Malik Reneau back for a fifth year gives the Hurricanes a deeper frontcourt. Along with Georgia transfer and dunking machine Somto Cyril, who should start at the, Jai Lucas' group also has Robert Miller from LSU, Desean Goode from Robert Morris, and Egor Ryzhov, a hyped-up Russian recruit. If fouls are called down in this physical game, advantage Miami.
Despite the size, both teams absolutely love to run in transition, and this game was a very speedy 77 possessions last year with only 13 total steals. The game would have been a lot higher-scoring than 82-68 Florida if the teams combined to make more than 13 threes on 45 attempts or miss a collective 22 free throws.
Shooting will be the x-factor here. Florida notably lost to Baylor in the preseason thanks to an unbelievable 0-for-15 stinker from Denzel Aberdeen and Urban Klavzar, while Miami breezed past Vanderbilt thanks to 5-star freshman Caleb Gaskins' 4-for-5 night from deep, even though he shot 27.8% from 3 in his last AAU season. It's safe to say of those numbers are replicated here, Miami probably wins.
I'm not putting too much stock in Florida's shaky preseason other than the fact that the non-Klavzar bench guys are not where Todd Golden wants them to be. Reneau, Cyril, and Shelton Henderson alone combined to draw 14.9 fouls per 40 minutes last year. One of Florida's big three down low will need to sit. It's very possible that's enough for the Hurricanes to sneak an upset win here. - Matthew Winick
Memphis vs. Iowa State (-13)
Sioux Falls, SD | 7:00 PM ET | FS1
Lest I just stand here and repeat the Underdog Penny Hardaway stats - 31-18 ATS post-COVID, 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 6+ points - we should actually break down the game here, which serves as an interesting window into two very different teams. Iowa State is plowing ahead as if Tamin Lipsey is eligible; against Northwestern in their exhibition he led the team in minutes played and it appears T.J. Otzelberger is happy to play Lipsey and Jaquon Johnson together.
If that's the case I think that's an utter nightmare for a Memphis team that got eaten alive by the closest thing the AAC has to this perimeter pressure last year in North Texas. The Mean Green held Memphis to 0.86 PPP across two games, forced turnovers on 27% of possessions, and funneled the Tigers into the midrange over and over. This is obviously a much different Memphis team, and Jayden Reid is probably a better option at point than anything Hardaway had on hand last year. Still, it's Reid's first time playing against a defense like this, and against the closest thing the Big Ten had last year to something this aggressive up top, Reid was awful in both Northwestern losses to Nebraska, committing 8 turnovers to 6 assists. Memphis doesn't seem to have an obvious better or alternate option to handle the rush if Reid is similarly bad. My guess here is Iowa State covers this, possibly winning by 20+...but it's Penny. You never know. - Will Warren
Miami (OH) at James Madison (-1)
Harrisonburg, VA | 7 :00 PM ET | ESPN+
We all know what Miami Ohio did last year with its 31-0 start to the season, but do we also know that the Redhawks bring back two starters (Luke Skaljac and Antwone Woolfolk), its best reserve (Almar Atlason), and its best player to start last year before tearing his ACL in December (Evan Ipsaro). It feels like more people should be talking about that!
James Madison went through a completely different roster building strategy, bringing back only stretch big Preston Fowler, and loading its backcourt up with two former power conference guards in Northwestern's KJ Windham and Illinois' Brandon Lee. Windham especially could be the Sun Belt Player of the Year.
Expect Miami Ohio to play really fast with two point guards on the floor. Already one of the quickest teams in the country, the Redhawks' pace was nearly a full possession faster than its average when both were on the court last year. Two ball handlers on the floor who also double as your best players means you can run action quickly. For James Madison, Lee will probably have to play more than the 17.5 minutes per game he played in the preseason due to his athleticism at the guard spot to combat that dynamic duo.
But the biggest key here is Woolfolk, who is currently eligible for a 5th year due to the lawsuit in Ohio. He was by far Miami's best defender last year, and is far more physical as a rebounder and paint presence than any of the options the Dukes have to throw out. Look for a big game from all of Ipsaro, Skaljac, and Woolfolk and for Miami to keep the winning ways going. - Matthew Winick
Charlotte at Indiana State (-1)
Terre Haute, IN | 7:00 PM ET | ESPN+
Wes Miller returns to the state of North Carolina after five years at Cincinnati, where he did not reach the NCAA Tournament. But if he can rekindle what he produced at UNC Greensboro (185-135 record) at Charlotte, there could be a lot to like. Most notably, Miller did not struggle at Cincinnati because of his defenses; the Bearcats ranked in the top 22 for adjusted defensive efficiency in each of his last three seasons. Including his last four years at UNCG, Miller-led teams have finished top-75 for AdjD in 10 straight years.
Consistency on defense should be the calling card again, and his first Charlotte roster features high-major talent, with Keyshuan Tillery, Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer, and Tyler McKinley following him from Cincinnati, as well as adding Dylan Grant (Rutgers) and Peyton Marshall (Georgia Tech). The 49ers lost by 20 to Georgia but also took North Carolina to overtime in the preseason.
While Indiana State did not deal with a coaching change this offseason, it features almost as much “new” as Charlotte — if not more. The 49ers at least bring back Arden Conyers, who played 19.5 minutes per game last season, while the Sycamores return 0.0% of their minutes. It is a brand-new roster for head coach Matthew Graves after an 11-21 (4-16 MVC) season a year ago, with Jackson Cooper as the new headliner.
Across Graves' two seasons at the helm, combined with his previous stint at South Alabama, we’ve learned that his teams play up-tempo and let it fly from three. Over half of Indiana State’s shots in his first season came from beyond the arc; that dropped to 45.2% last year, but it was still the 62nd-highest rate in the country. In their lone Division I exhibition this year, the Sycamores let 33 3s fly out of 60 field goal attempts in a seven-point loss at Butler.
This matchup in Terre Haute comes after Charlotte defended its home court against Indiana State, 92-76, in last year’s season-opener. Not many faces on either side remember that game, though. To say there is much known about either team given the overhauls would be disingenuous, but Miller could have Charlotte playing its best defense in some time, and Graves will have Indiana State ready to let it fly. - Lukas Harkins
Howard at Yale (-6)
New Haven, CT | 7:00 PM ET | ESPN+
Yale only lost one of its seven Ivy League games in February last year, but it nearly lost a second game regardless, because a rare late-season non-conference game saw Howard 2.3 seconds away from knocking off the eventual Ivy League regular season champions.
Howard brings back four starters from that game, and Yale brings back just one. So clearly Howard wins this one, right? Not so fast.
For one, Howard got a bit lucky from deep, making 10 threes on 46%, one of just five times all year they eclipsed both numbers. And second of all, I am fully buying this new, younger Yale team. Last year's point guard Trevor Mullin returns, as does one of the Ivy's most efficient offensive players in Riley Fox and the guy that made the shot in the clip above, Jordan Brathwaite. Yale has also been a wagon at home in the non-conference slate, losing just four games in their own building since 2018.
The one clear edge Howard has is at the wing, with athletic forward and very clear MEAC Player of the Year frontrunner Cedric Taylor. Yale simply has no one to guard him on the wing with his size and athleticism combo, and he already torched them for 18 points, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals last year. Expect him to put together an eye-popping stat line, but Yale's extremely skilled guard play to eventually pull away behind its home fans. - Matthew Winick
Purdue vs. Gonzaga (-2)
Las Vegas, NV | 7:30 PM ET | TNT
Any idea how many combined starts departed from Purdue’s lineup last year? How about 502 between Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, TKR, and Oscar Cluff. Matt Painter continues to have some of the best roster retention in the Portal Era, so while the Boilermakers are not turning over a ton of personnel, nearly every single player in the rotation will see a sizeable uptick in role, minutes, usage, etc. this season.
Gonzaga enters the year with a strong mix of returners, portal guys, and international transfers that should be one of the better frontcourts in the country. This team is big, they are old, and they are deep. The Zags want to push the pace offensively and get to the paint either via ball screens or post-ups. Look for them to attack (likely) new starter Daniel Jacobsen early and often as they will certainly try to impose their will on the interior as the primary path to victory.
Purdue will do their best to take the air out of the ball and really try to push Gonzaga away from the rim—the same way that Randy Bennett gave them fits when he was at St. Mary’s. The more 3Pointers taken in this game, the more it favors Purdue. But for all the beef that Purdue lacks underneath, they still possess an ace up the sleeve in the form of 3P shooting. The Boilermakers will assuredly spring some upsets this year behind that torrid perimeter shooting, but is this new unit ready to do it against what could easily be a Top 5-10 team in the sport by the time it is all said and done? - Gavin
Toledo (-2) at Arkansas State
Jonesboro, AR | 8:00 PM ET | ESPN+
Stretch those necks out, folks – this game is going to ping pong back and forth on both ends of the court. The Rockets and Red Wolves are plenty content to get into a track meet, and the two teams’ transition offenses can light up the scoreboard. Tod Kowalczyk’s Toledo squad has been top 100 in average possession length for five straight seasons; Ryan Pannone and Arkansas State ranked 7th in that category last year.
Toledo will be even more inclined to run with the speedy Sean Jones taking over at point guard. When healthy, he was a legitimate starting-caliber player in the Big East, and Kowalczyk repeatedly develops outstanding lead guards. A-State, meanwhile, has two elite on-ball creators of its own in Tameron Ferguson and Layne Taylor.
Toledo’s positional size could emerge as an edge, though. Rich Barron is another Big East transfer, and when he and Angel Montas are on the wing together, Toledo is massive on the perimeter. The Rockets also boast Austin Parks at center, a 6-10 big man who spent his first two seasons at Ohio State. The Red Wolves have plenty of size themselves, but the pedigree on the Toledo roster is extremely impressive.
Every Sun Belt team gets to host the opener in this MAC-Sun Belt Challenge, so A-State will have that edge in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves also sport the trademark Nate Oats shot selection, generally avoiding all long 2s:
Both teams are well-coached and added great talent this offseason. It is slight surprise to see the betting market (A-State -3.5) drift so far away from KenPom (Toledo -2). In truth, this one is probably a toss-up. - Jim Root
Ohio (-3) at South Alabama
Mobile, AL | 8:00 PM ET | ESPN+
In the matchup of Bobcats versus Jaguars I figured it best to ask a very stupid question to an increasingly stupid tool.
I somewhat believe this for this game. South Alabama is a little taller and has more heft at the 5 in particular, as I'd wager Stephen Williams is more up for this in terms of game 1 immediacy than Ohio's Dusan Makitan. But as is the norm with all South Alabama games, this comes down to how well their opponent can navigate and shoot over the most unique zone defense in Division I.
Ohio does not project as an especially great shooting offense and I am incredibly worried about their ability to hang on the boards this year, but the latter is typically somewhat less a concern in South Alabama games. This is all very simple: when South Alabama gives you the three-point line, are you going to hit these shots? Last year's Ohio team did have an 81st-percentile zone offense, but they weren't exactly zoned with high frequency and were a horrendous shooting team then. By pure nature of how USA dictates games Ohio is going to take over half their shots from 3, which makes this an absolutely massive game for IU Indy transfer Kyler D'Augustino and Idaho transfer Kolton Mitchell. I'd need to see those two combine for...6 threes? Maybe more.
On the flip side, South Alabama seeks to take advantage of a lot of 1-on-1 situations offensively, and last year's Ohio team was quite bad at defending these. I think their personnel is better suited for it this year, but as variance-heavy as their defense is it's actually easy to figure out a good offensive game for them: they went 10-3 last year when attempting 23+ free throws. Against an Ohio program that traditionally fouls more than the national average, that could be the difference-maker. - Will Warren
Fordham at Kansas (-18)
Lawrence, KS | 8:00 PM ET | ESPN+
This is one of the spiciest opening-night buy games, and give Kansas credit for scheduling it, especially before they got their five-in-five reinforcements. But it's also always must-see TV whenever the No. 1 freshman in the country makes his collegiate debut. Tyran Stokes' first game as a Jayhawk is the draw for casual fans, but there's a draw for the sickos too.
Mike Magpayo's Fordham team returns its entire frontcourt and is going to be one of the best glass-eating mid-major groups. Rebounding should be a strength for KU as well, as you'd expect from a frontcourt with TKR, Keanu Dawes, Christian Reeves, and Stokes. Will the Rams throw in the funky zone that led to so much success in the back half of A-10 play? How will that impact Kansas' downhill attackers in Stokes and Melvin Council? Overall, the Jayhawks have a ton of fascinating potential lineup combinations, and seeing how Bill Self manages them is one of the most intriguing storylines of the season. Jumbo lineups with Tre White at the 2 could be fun, so could smaller lineups with Stokes at the 4, and either Taylen Kinney or Leroy Blyden at the 1.
On the Fordham side, KU's backcourt length (in certain lineups) could make life difficult for scoring guard transfers Amir Lindsey (UAlbany) and Lateef Patrick (Stephen F. Austin), meaning freshman Hassan Koureissi could play big minutes on night one. He's a player to watch throughout the year, one of the best freshmen in the A-10. - Sam Federman
Ohio State (-1) 'at' BYU
Salt Lake City, UT | 9:00 PM ET | FS1
This is my personal favorite game of opening night. I don't think highly of either defense, and both offenses have massive upside on nights where they're hot from the field. Neither team seems particularly well-equipped to stop what the other does well, and early vibes are that this is a race to 85 or even 90. In terms of pure entertainment it's hard to beat this...if both teams are ready to roll right away.
I'm surprised that there's not more of an elevation or 'home' advantage built into BYU for this number, as the Cougars are playing in Salt Lake City, where they smashed Wisconsin and Cal Baptist last season and haven't lost at since December 2022 to South Dakota. (Yes, really.) BYU's spread-'n'-shred with Rob Wright and crew against Ohio State's hedge coverage could be a nightmare for the Buckeyes, as BYU's hedge-beater last year of pick-and-pops and/or quick rolls downhill was hard for even the good Big 12 defenses to stop. Against Ohio State - a 34th-percentile hedge coverage last year - I am genuinely concerned about how they expect to slow this down when BYU may have the very best (or at least the highest-ceiling) perimeter shooting offense in America.
But Ohio State also shouldn't worry, because through two years Kevin Young is largely eschewing defense. Last year's team got struck by injuries but even with a healthy Richie Saunders the Cougs graded out as the 63rd-best defense in America, or nine spots below this OSU defense I just got mad at. The downside of having a 5-out roster is the likelihood you won't be terribly physical on the other end of the court, and a 95th-percentile post offense against a 13th-percentile post defense could be horrific for BYU if 5* supernova Anthony Thompson uses his 6'9" frame to create mismatches. BYU generally tries not to switch too much, which could lead to Bruce Branch III or Collin Chandler (!) having to guard Thompson backing them down. I favor BYU here because of the semi-home environment but what I'm really expecting is a game where neither can stop the other. - Will Warren
Arizona (-6) vs. UCLA
Las Vegas, NV | 10:00 PM ET | TNT
Two of the best programs West of the Rockies square off in their annual post-Pac 12 matchup with a pair of coaches who are plenty familiar with one another. The first thing I will note about this game is the fact that it is being played in Vegas which means we likely see a favorable Arizona crowd as one of the best travelling fanbases in the region (they used to dominate the old P12 tourney crowds).
At a foundational level, Mick Cronin's defensive scheme is built to slow down a Tommy Lloyd offense by being elite in transition and rim denial. The Bruins will apply pressure by hard hedging ball screens and sending digs or weakside help at any paint touch. The Wildcats were Top 75 in offensive TO% last year, but UCLA forced a 22.2% TO% in their matchup which was Arizona's third highest mark in a season where they also faced the turnover boogeymen in Iowa State and Houston a combined four times. How the newly constructed backcourt of JJ Mandaquit, Derek Dixon, and Caleb Holt (with some help from Ivan Kharchenkov at times on the ball) holds up to that pressure will be key in determining who wins this game.
There is also a reason UCLA is an all-out rim denial defense as opponents shot 64.6% at the cup per CBB Analytics last year and return starting Center Xavier Booker who will surely have his hands full against 7'2 Mo Krivas. The turnovers also play a part in the rim denial - if Zona can hold onto the ball long enough, UCLA's overloaded pressure will open up opportunities at the bucket and on the weakside for a team who wants to jam it into the paint. Whoever imposes their will in this strength-on-strength matchup likely emerges victorious. - Gavin
Illinois State at Saint Mary's (-9)
Moraga, CA | 10:00 PM ET | ESPN+
Something tells me that Mickey McConnell's Saint Mary's group is going to be a little more offensive than the recent squads of his former head coach and boss Randy Bennett. Saint Mary's hasn't finished with a better offense than defensive since the COVID-shortened season, which makes people forget that prior to that, the Gaels' offense outpaced its defensive for 12 straight campaigns before that.
To that end, Saint Mary's has only had four teams in the Top 300 in pace since 2008, and those happen to perfectly with McConnell's four seasons as the team's point guard. A speedy Australia trip and a 76-possession game against Utah State in the regular season, plus a potent offensive trio of star passer Joshua Dent, breakout sniper Mantas Juzenas, and McDonald's All-American freshman Darius Bivins means that Saint Mary's will probably look more like McConnell's version of the Gaels.
Also on the offense-defensive spectrum, Illinois State weirdly flipped from a team 159-spots offensive to 83-spots defensive from two years ago to last year in KenPom, and yet the Redbirds were 13th-nationally in minutes continuity. Weirdly, the biggest difference in their resume is that they just had way higher two-way free throw percentages two years ago than last. It's still likely this Johnny Kinziger and Chase Walker core is better on offense than on defense.
All told, in a game that would be a surprising victory for Illinois State to go all the way across the country and win at a place few not named Gonzaga have come away victorious in, I would instead look to two offenses that will score a surprising amount of points here. - Matthew Winick
Montana State at Colorado State (-10)
Fort Collins, CO | 10:00 PM ET | YouTube
A fun late one here. This is a somewhat unusual game for 2026 in that both teams involved return >55% of their minutes from last year, meaning these two teams have almost as much returning production as some of the upper-tier Ivies or Patriot League squads. For once I feel fairly comfortable evaluating this similarly to how I would've evaluated the two teams last year, because they've got similar strengths and weaknesses to what they had 8-9 months ago.
I think Montana State can hang here if you're evaluating it like you did last year. CSU made some minor strides in patching up a bad perimeter defense by adding Marist's Justin Menard, but MSU's Jed Miller may be the single best player on the court in this game, and until CSU proves they can cover P&R effectively without spamming four different coverages at opponents he has the potential to put up 20+. If he gets help, MSU's a live dog. The problem: CSU's offense is hard to guard even for the very best defenses, and a Montana State defense that typically lives in drop coverage may be DOA against Colorado State of all teams. - Will Warren
Seattle at Hawaii (-1)
Honolulu, HI | 11:59 PM ET | MWN+
This is a battle between last year's No. 8 defensive rating team (Hawaii), and the No. 21 unit (Seattle). These teams both allowed under one point per possession last year, which only 26 other teams in the entire country did.
Seattle's defense was predicated on its terrific pressure and physicality with its No. 9 turnover rate and No. 14 block rate. The Redhawks return their leading shot blocker Will Heimbrodt, and got a last-minute return of their leading steals-getter Maleek Arington thanks to 5-in-5. So long as those two are on the floor, this defense will be outstanding.
Hawaii's defense was based off a stubborn no-help defense, which just forces extreme isolation rates and little ball movement. You of course need good defenders to execute this scheme, but the Rainbow Warriors found a hack in the system by just playing huge. Hawaii was the 26th-tallest team in the country last year and just forced drivers to finish over size. They are just as tall, if not even bigger this year with 6-foot-7 point guard Tanner Cuff back from injury.
Neither of these offenses should have much success here. Hawaii was in the bottom-55 nationally last year in turnover rate and could easily cough it up 20 times here. Seattle shot 31.7% in isolation offense last year and loses top scorer Brayden Maldonado. If you're going to stay up until midnight eastern to watch the final game of the night, expect a ton of defense and very little offensive efficiency. - Matthew Winick
