This year's coaching carousel landscape is beginning to take shape, with several teams playing their way in and out of league title and NCAA tournament contention. Here are some storylines we're monitoring as we inch closer towards the first real moves of the cycle.

Josh Schertz and Tony Skinn are the belles of the ball.

The Atlantic 10 saw four coaching changes last season and depending on who you talk to, we could see another three or four moves this spring. At the top of the league standings, George Mason and Saint Louis find themselves in the crosshairs of power conference programs looking to make a hire.

George Mason head coach Tony Skinn is in year three and has done nothing but win since his arrival in Fairfax. In his first season, he matched the win total of his predecessor Kim English, who used the Mason job as a launching pad to get to Providence. Skinn then took the program to another level in year two, matching the largest win total in school history and tying for an A10 regular season title. Now in his third season, the Patriots are 16-1 and embody the intensity and defense-first approach that their head coach used to make a Final Four during his playing days.

Skinn signed a lucrative extension following last season, paying him $1.7M every year with a $100k increase through 2029-2030. Despite the largest contract in school history, the buyout still remains at $1.2M this spring - a number that won't deter any power conference program from hiring him away. George Mason brass are likely (or at least should be) working on another pay bump for their highly-coveted alumnus, and the allure of making another Final Four run in Fairfax could be enough to keep him around. Skinn has the luxury of waiting for an opportunity that makes sense for him long-term because he is well paid at a program that is well funded for the level.

Saint Louis faces a similar dilemma, with Josh Schertz currently engineering the most successful season at Chaifetz Arena since the Jim Crews and Rick Majerus days. The Billikens didn't wow anyone with a 19-15 first season, but the early success this year is turning heads in athletic departments across the country. Schertz is only in his fifth season at the Division I level, but his work at Indiana State and DII Lincoln Memorial is highly regarded among coaching circles. Saint Louis' offense is routinely cited among the top in the country and he is often looked at as one of the best program builders in the game.

The details of Schertz's deal with Saint Louis are not publicly available, but the IndyStar reports he makes north of $2M per year. Saint Louis is likely second to Dayton in the A10 as far as resources and potential compensation, putting them on par, and in some cases better, than several bottom-tier power conference schools. Unlike Skinn, Schertz doesn't have any direct or longstanding ties to the school, but his current financial support makes it difficult to see him leaving for just anything. High major schools will undoubtedly make their overtures this spring, but as with most jobs, the price has to be right.

The potential power conference opportunities are...just okay.

An interesting storyline we'll be following is the quality of open jobs this spring. What makes a good job in today's landscape and are there any schools that will be able to poach a sitting head coach from another power conference team? Are there any schools that would make sense for a Josh Schertz or Tony Skinn to leave great situations for?

The current list of high major coaches we believe are on the hot seat are:

Bobby Hurley (Arizona State), Earl Grant (Boston College), Wes Miller (Cincinnati), Matt McMahon (LSU), Jeff Capel (Pittsburgh), and Red Autry (Syracuse)

The closest thing to a traditional power here is Syracuse, but a potential candidate will have legitimate questions about the boosters' commitment to NIL. Cincinnati has embraced the new era with their spending over the last few seasons and a new coach may be able to get that investment to translate on the floor. Pittsburgh's athletic department is mired with debt, but new athletic director Allen Greene will likely inject some funds to help a new hire. Arizona State just poured a ton of money into their football program, so the potential is there - does it carry over to hoops? Then there's Boston College and LSU - neither of which has made any significant NIL investment in their basketball programs to this point.

Which of these jobs could top mid-major candidates like Schertz or Skinn leave for? Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are enticing, but all three will need to step up their guarantees to make it worth it for those types of candidates. Arizona State makes up the middle tier and could sway a Mountain West or WCC candidate. In their current forms, Boston College and LSU will likely get turned down by the higher end mid-major guys.

Other high major coaches who could find themselves out of a job depending on how the season finishes out include:

Damon Stoudamire (Georgia Tech), Jerome Tang (Kansas State), Porter Moser (Oklahoma), Kim English (Providence), Steve Pikiell (Rutgers), Steve Forbes (Wake Forest) and Danny Sprinkle (Washington)

Memphis is in no mans land with Penny Hardaway.

One year removed from their most successful regular season since 2013, Memphis finds itself back in no mans land with Penny Hardaway. The Tigers lost to Florida Atlantic this afternoon, dropping their record to 7-8 (2-1, American). As of writing, Memphis' offense is the second worst of Hardaway's eight year tenure and KenPom projects an underwhelming 17-14 finish.

The once-storied program only has one NCAA tournament win in three appearances since Hardaway took over and last year's campaign is more indicative of the ceiling than the floor. The last two seasons have been relatively drama-free, but Hardaway's tenure has been full of off-court issues ranging from several NCAA violations to untimely staff changes and public disputes with players.

Hardaway is under contract through 2028 and he's set to make $2.9M next season. If Memphis decided to part ways, they would only owe him $1.5M. There is still plenty of time to turn things around in league play, but athletic director Dr. Ed Scott will have some tough decisions to make this spring.

Every season since the COVID year we've seen legends of the game step away. In some cases their predecessors were predetermined (Roy Williams -> Hubert Davis, Jay Wright -> Kyle Neptune, Mike Krzyzewski -> Jon Scheyer, Bruce Pearl -> Steven Pearl), but most of the time it's left a completely wide open search.

A few names we're keeping an eye on this spring that don't have a known replacement:

Thad Matta (Butler), Tad Boyle (Colorado), Bill Self (Kansas), Dana Altman (Oregon), Jamie Dixon (TCU), Rick Barnes (Tennessee) and Mike Young (Virginia Tech)

This group is full of high quality jobs that could alter the trajectory of the entire carousel. Right now we'd bet there's at least two realistic retirements from the list, with the potential for one or two more surprises.

Retirement watches with known replacements:

Greg McDermott (Creighton -> Alan Huss), Mark Few (Gonzaga -> Brian Michaelson), Kelvin Sampson (Houston -> Kellen Sampson)

Not as fun, but still intriguing nonetheless.

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