One month in, and the Big 12 is packed with storylines, individual performances and surprise teams already. Two of the steadiest players in the conference, Joshua Jefferson and Jaden Bradley, didn’t receive preseason all-conference honors from their league mates. And the two seniors have kicked off the year with play that suggests those snubs may have been a mistake. Additionally, the middle of the conference has some teams making some surprise waves in their non-conference games. Here are some observations on the seniors leading two of the top teams in the conference and the pesky Horned Frogs in Fort Worth.

Joshua Jefferson’s leap

It’s not like Joshua Jefferson has been hiding in plain sight. 6-9 forward did earn second team all-conference honors last season and started this one on the Karl Malone Award Watchlist for best power forward in the country.

But with Jefferson averaging 18.4 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.6 assists, it may be under-discussed just how good he has been for an Iowa State team now ranked 10th in the country and seventh in the NET. Those 18.4 points and 5.6 assists through eight games are particularly eye-catching because of the company he’s in.

There are just nine other high-major players who are averaging at least 18 points and 5 assists–and they’re all guards. One of those qualified players is teammate Tamin Lipsey, who has missed three games so far due to injury. In the two games Iowa State played in the Players Era Festival without Lipsey, Jefferson averaged 15.5 points and 7.5 assists per game.

But it’s not just that Jefferson is serving as a Swiss Army knife for TJ Otzelberger’s team. He’s become an even more efficient player and shown an ability to score at multiple levels. He’s been terrific at the rim both seasons in Iowa State, but in just eight games, he’s already surpassed the number of midrange shots he made last season.

Jefferson is in the 99th percentile for points in the paint per game and he’s even improved his 68% at the rim efficiency to a staggering 73.9% this season. He’s improved his fast break point volume and efficiency and is scoring 3.8 second chance points per game, which puts him in the 97th percentile for that category as well.

This is all while being an elite two-way player, holding a 2.8% steal percentage and an 89.7 defensive rating. Jefferson’s next opportunity to further his case as an All-American candidate comes this weekend against Trey Kaufman-Renn and top-ranked Purdue on the road.

Jaden Bradley is taking advantage of his opportunity

Jaden Bradley came to Tucson, Arizona to become Tommy Lloyd’s lead guard. That was the vision when he left Alabama and joined the Wildcats before the 2023-2024 season. But the portal is unpredictable, and Arizona had the chance to land Caleb Love. That took a lot of responsibility off of Bradley and kept him as a role player who was there to play high-caliber defense and make minimal mistakes while setting up the other major minute earners.

But this season, Bradley has been given the chance to run the offense and serve as a major featured weapon alongside freshman phenom Koa Peat. The trust and familiarity with the offense Bradley has developed under Lloyd have helped guide Arizona to a ranking of second in the AP Poll and sixth in the NET.

Lloyd and the Arizona staff have been diligent with Bradley’s minutes in this early slate. While playing 35 minutes per game against high-level teams, he averages just 20.5 minutes per game against lower-level buy games that pad out their non-conference schedule. Freshman guard Brayden Burries hasn’t quite found his groove yet this season, only making a fresh and healthy Bradley all the more important headed into conference play.

Look out for the Horned Frogs

When TCU’s season started with a loss to New Orleans, it would have been understandable to look at Jamie Dixon’s squad as a repeat of last year’s 16-16 team that 10th in the conference and destined to miss the tournament for the fifth time in eight seasons.

But since that dreadful kickoff, the Horned Frogs are 5-1 with the lone loss coming down to two possessions against a Michigan Wolverines team by 30+ points in the Players Era tournament. From their second game on, Dixon’s team is 16th in Torvik and fifth in Torvik adjusted defensive efficiency.

Defense has always been Dixon’s calling card, and this season is no different. TCU’s ranking of 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom is tied for the best ranking in his tenure at the school. They’ve won games by limiting paint points for their opponents and forcing turnovers, boasting the ninth-highest opponent turnover percentage of 23.6%.

TCU’s jump as a team has coincided with the emergence of sophomore big David Punch, who’s gone from averaging 6.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 blocks and 0.5 steals last season in 20.4 minutes per game to 12.7 points, 7 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 1.4 steals in 29 minutes. His touch has greatly improved as well, going from a field goal percentage of 47.7% his freshman season to 58.1% in his first 7 games this season. He’s been one of the best two-way rim protectors in the country so far this season.

In addition to limiting interior scoring, TCU has been elite at creating turnovers. Transfer guard Brock Harding is averaging 3.3 steals per game so far this season. Their opponent turnover percentage of 20.9% is in the 98th percentile in Division I. One of their opponents, Wisconsin, has the 33rd-best turnover rate in the country on offense at 14%. Their rate was 23% in their 74-63 loss last Friday.

For TCU to ultimately become a tournament team, they will need to develop some consistent offense to complement Punch. Providence transfer guard Jayden Pierre has shown the potential to be that guy. He’s shooting 44% from three this season while averaging 11.7 points. Hardy hasn’t found the shooting that he demonstrated previously when he played at Iowa. He’s shooting 29.2% from three after entering the season as a career 39.1% shooter.

The potential is there with this TCU team to be a pesky team in conference play this season, with their matchups against Houston, Arizona and Iowa State all at home.

Games to watch

Cincinnati at Xavier, December 5th, 7:30 pm ET, TNT and truTV

Wes Miller knows he’s on a tight rope to keep his job this season and the loss to Eastern Michigan last week certainly didn’t make that path any easier. Now comes the Cross Town Shootout, one of the more underappreciated rivalries nationally, ensuring the pressure on Miller only ratchets higher. This game could be more of a Cross Town Rock Fight considering how good Cincinnati’s defense has been this season and how poor both teams’ offenses have looked. Hard to find a more story-driven matchup than a coach on the ropes going up against a coach in his new digs looking for a statement win.

Iowa State at Purdue, December 6th, 12 pm ET, CBS

As mentioned above, the Cyclones have looked dominant despite playing their last three games without their lead guard Tamin Lipsey. Lipsey’s groin injury could keep him out of what could be one of the better non-conference games of this season. The aforementioned battle between Joshua Jefferson and Trey Kaufman-Renn should be fascinating, and seeing Iowa State’s vaunted defense try to limit the offensive creation of Purdue’s Braden Smith will be an intriguing component to #10 in the country visiting the #1 team.

Arizona vs. Auburn, December 6th, 10 pm ET, ESPN

If Arizona can continue stacking wins, it might be a tall task for another team to try and pry the #1 seed in the West region come Selection Sunday. Hosting Auburn is the latest of a commendably difficult schedule Lloyd’s staff set up before heading into conference play. The frontcourt battles should be fun in this one, with both teams in the top-20 in the country for offensive rebounding, and pairing the early game’s forward matchup of Kaufman-Renn and Jefferson with a nightcap of Peat against Keyshawn Hall is a match made in hoops heaven.