Every year, people want this for reasons beyond my comprehension. What it is is pretty simple: a measure to see, on average, how many extra shots a team generates than their opponent. This matters because you're not always gonna hit every shot. Can you get your misses back? Can you avoid turnovers? If so, you're safer than the average team on a cold shooting night. It's doubly nice if you suppress shot volume on the defensive end.

I do find this stuff really fascinating, not least because there's at least some amount of predictiveness to it. For one, from 2002 to now, only one champion (2002 UConn) had below a +2 Shot Volume Index, which is John Gasaway's stat. If you prefer the simpler stat I've used before called Easy Shot Volume (we'll get to it), every champion other than 2014 UConn was at +4 or better.

This year, shot volume has roared back to the forefront of the sport. Nobody on the 1-3 seed lines is disqualified from those two parameters I just laid out, the first time that's ever happened in my database. The only other years that had 11 of 12: 2008 and 2025...which, yes, were the two years where all four 1 seeds made it to the end. It makes the big guys unusually unlikely to lose this year.

Still, there is hope. A rising shot volume tide lifts all boats. 12 members of the 11-16 seed lines have a +5 SVI or better, also the most recorded in any Tournament. Making shots will always matter, but everyone has come to understand that getting more shots might matter just as much. It's a fascinating time to be a fan.

The Shot Volume Index calculation: (100 - (100 * TO%)) + (OR% * (0.561 * (100 - (100 * TO%)))). This has around a 15-20% stronger correlation with winning than ESV, but I include both, as each are stronger than TO%/OREB%/FT Rate separately.

Easy Shot Volume calculation: (100 - TO% + OREB%), done both for offense and defense to create a net Shot Volume rating.

I’ve also included seed averages with each team, along with commentary where necessary. You'll also get SVI and ESV for top-150 games and road/neutral games, too, to help show if a team ran up their various shot volume scores against weak competition. On with the show.

East Region

(1) Duke

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +9 (1 seed average: +6.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +15.7 (1 seed average: +9.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +7.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +6.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +12.5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +12.1

(2) UConn

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.6 (seed average: +5.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +8.2 (seed average: +7.5)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +1.6
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +1.0
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +4.6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +4.7

(3) Michigan State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.8 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +13.6 (seed average: +5.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +10.5 (!)
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.9
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +10.3
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +8.4

MSU's a fascinating team to figure out. They're suggestive of a team that does play up to better competition...but also struggles to control the game on their terms away from home.

(4) Kansas

  • Shot Volume Index overall: -2.1 (seed average: +4.3)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: -2.1 (seed average: +6.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -3.9
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -5.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -3.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -5.3

Yes, these numbers are accurate. Kansas has the fourth-worst SVI for a 1-4 seed in history. The good news: the other three won in the Round of 64. The bad news: none of them touched the Elite Eight.

(5) St. John's

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +8.2 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +10.4 (seed average: +5.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +7.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +5.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +7.9
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +4.7

(6) Louisville

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.2 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6.3 (seed average: +5.8)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -2.3
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +2.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -1.2

Interesting to see Louisville's shot volume advantage heavily neutered away from home/against better competition. Feels like that explains a lot about the Louisville experience this year.

(7) UCLA

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.9 (seed average: +3.4)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +3.4 (seed average: +4.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +0.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +1.8

(8) Ohio State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.8 (seed average: +2.9)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +1.2 (seed average: +4.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -1.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -1.2
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -2.2
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -2.1

(9) TCU

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.3 (seed average: +3.0)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +9.4 (seed average: +4.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +5.6
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +4.4
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +6.2
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +4.9

(10) UCF

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.9 (seed average: +2.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6 (seed average: +3.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.6
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +0.7
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +0.9

(11) South Florida

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.3 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +10 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +1.7
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +1.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +2.3
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +2.4

South Florida's gigantic dropoff in creating an edge in shot volume against better competition is pretty worrying to me if you're hoping for a deep run. For instance, this makes their game against Louisville a likely draw in that department and it would likely be a minor demolition against Michigan State.

(12) Northern Iowa

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.0 (seed average: +4.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: -0.8 (seed average: +5.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -2.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -3.6
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -4.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -5.9

This seems bad, but fun fact: 12 seeds with a negative ESV are 6-8 all-time in the Round of 64. The five 12 seeds that had an ESV -10 or worse than their 5 seed: 3-2. That's why they play the games, fellas.

(13) Cal Baptist

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.7 (seed average: +3.8)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +9.6 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -2.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -2.2
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +2.2
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +2.7

Cal Baptist will be just the fifth 13 seed to hold an ESV gap of +10 or better over their 4-seed opponent. The previous four went 2-2, including 2010 Murray State and 2011 Morehead State. If 2026 Cal Baptist wins by exactly one point, you heard it here first.

(14) North Dakota State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.3 (seed average: +2.7)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +11 (seed average: +4.0)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +6.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +10.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -11.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -3.6

(15) Furman

  • Shot Volume Index overall: -3.1 (seed average: +1.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: -0.6 (seed average: +2.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -12.5
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -12.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -8.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -8.8

(16) Siena

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.6 (seed average: +0.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4 (seed average: +1.2)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -1.8
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -1.8
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -2.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -2.4

Unintentional, but yes, both Furman and Siena had the exact same SVI/ESV splits in top-150 and road/neutral games.

West Region

(1) Arizona

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.2 (1 seed average: +6.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +12.8 (1 seed average: +9.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +6.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +5.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +10.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +9.2

(2) Purdue

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.2 (seed average: +5.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +12 (seed average: +7.5)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +6.5
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +6.4
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +11.9
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +12.1

Purdue's ability to sustain this strong level of shot volume away from home and against better competition is pretty remarkable and feels telling about what they may be capable of.

(3) Gonzaga

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +12.1 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +15.7 (seed average: +5.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +9.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +8.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +11.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +11.6

If we're lucky enough, the Shot Volume Game of the Year™ will take place in the Sweet Sixteen between Gonzaga and Purdue. Brute force meets brute force.

(4) Arkansas

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.5 (seed average: +4.3)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.4 (seed average: +6.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +3.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +1.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +3
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +0.8

(5) Wisconsin

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.4 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +2.8 (seed average: +5.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.6
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -0.9
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -1.2

(6) BYU

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.9 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6.5 (seed average: +5.8)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +2.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.8
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +4.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +1.5

If you're this far down in the article - and let's be real, you probably were anyway - BYU's post-Saunders numbers are an SVI of +0.6 and an ESV of +1.7. Not a huge change, but hammers in their reliance on shot-making.

(7) Miami FL

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.5 (seed average: +3.4)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +12.9 (seed average: +4.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +3.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +8.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +6.6

(8) Villanova

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.5 (seed average: +2.9)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.3 (seed average: +4.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +2.6
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.9
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +0.6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -1.3

(9) Utah State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +6.6 (seed average: +3.0)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6.1 (seed average: +4.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +6.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +6.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +5.3
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +6.6

FWIW, 8/9s with an SVI of +6 or higher are...15-18 in the Round of 64. Maybe USU can buck the trend.

(10) Missouri

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.2 (seed average: +2.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +2.7 (seed average: +3.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -2.8
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -2.4
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -3.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -0.4

Conversely, 7/10s with an ESV gap of +8 from them to their Round of 64 opponent are 11-4. That's going to be hard for Mizzou to overcome at -10.2.

(11) Texas

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +1.9 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6.5 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -1.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -2.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -2.6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +1.1

(12) High Point

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +10.7 (seed average: +4.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +9.3 (seed average: +5.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -1.8
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +7.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -4.6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +6.3

Figuring out HPU is this year's tough task. On paper, sure, they could cause serious issues for a Wisconsin team that last bothered to secure extra possessions in 2015. But in practice...what's their athleticism really look like?

(13) Hawaii

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.6 (seed average: +3.8)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.4 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -2.8
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.3
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -3.5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +1.0

(14) Kennesaw State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +1.2 (seed average: +2.7)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +3.6 (seed average: +4.0)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +1.9
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.8
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +6.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +3.3

(15) Queens (NC)

  • Shot Volume Index overall: -1.0 (seed average: +1.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: -2.4 (seed average: +2.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -9.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -3.8
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -11.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -6.3

This game with Purdue could be over very fast. We'll see.

(16) Long Island

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.7 (seed average: +0.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +1.6 (seed average: +1.2)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -5.6
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -9.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -0.1

Same here. The Fins will STAY up, however. Deal with it.

Midwest Region

(1) Michigan

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.2 (1 seed average: +6.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6.5 (1 seed average: +9.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +1.2
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.8
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +5.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +2.3

(2) Iowa State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +11.9 (seed average: +5.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +14.5 (seed average: +7.5)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +9.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +6.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +10.2
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +6.1

Hilton Magic is real, but so is ISU's huge Shot Volume. They join the illustrious group of just 14 1-3 seeds to have an SVI of +11 or better. The good news: those teams averaged 2.71 wins, or about 0.16 more than expected. The bad news: one of them was St. John's last year, who grabbed approximately one billion rebounds against Arkansas and still lost. Two other teams in this group this year are Houston and Gonzaga.

(3) Virginia

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.6 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +8.1 (seed average: +5.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +1.5
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +5.5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +3.7

(4) Alabama

  • Shot Volume Index overall: -1.0 (seed average: +4.3)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: -1.4 (seed average: +6.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -2.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -4.8
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -3.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -6.8

Alabama is exceptionally bad at limiting shot volume defensively. As in: they have the worst defensive shot volume numbers recorded for any 1-5 seed in at least 25 years. This is escapable, as it was a year ago, but you do have to score, like, 105 points a night to make it work.

(5) Texas Tech

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.1 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +2 (seed average: +5.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -2.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -7.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -0.5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -7.9

(6) Tennessee

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.1 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +16.4 (seed average: +5.8)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +5.6
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.6
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +13.6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +9.1

Unsurprisingly, Tennessee's giant shot volume numbers (largely by way of the fifth-best OREB% in 30 years) are historic. Their offensive ESV is 127.9, the highest ever recorded, and they enter this Tournament as one of just 12 teams in 25 years to post a per-100 OREB% margin of +15 or higher.

(7) Kentucky

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.7 (seed average: +3.4)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.5 (seed average: +4.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -2.3
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -0.5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -3.1

(8) Georgia

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +5.0 (seed average: +2.9)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.4 (seed average: +4.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -2.7
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -0.8

(9) Saint Louis

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.4 (seed average: +3.0)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +2.8 (seed average: +4.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -3.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -3.9
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -3.2
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -2.6

(10) Santa Clara

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.4 (seed average: +2.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +8.9 (seed average: +3.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +5.0
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +3.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +4.7
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +3.3

(11) SMU

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.2 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +5 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +0.2
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.3
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +2.3
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +3.8

(11) Miami (OH)

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.1 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +0.2 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.8
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -4

(12) Akron

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +5.1 (seed average: +4.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6.5 (seed average: +5.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +2.5
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +4.5
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +1.6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +6.3

(13) Hofstra

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.8 (seed average: +3.8)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +3.3 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -2.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -2.5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +0.8

(14) Wright State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.1 (seed average: +2.7)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.2 (seed average: +4.0)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +2.2
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.3
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +6.9
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +0.4

(15) Tennessee State

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +6.4 (seed average: +1.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +8.5 (seed average: +2.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -1.6
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -5.3
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -0.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +8.8

(16) Howard

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.8 (seed average: +0.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +6.1 (seed average: +1.2)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -7.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -14.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +4.2

Obviously, Howard has the largest dropoff of anybody from their overall performance to those against better competition. Perhaps not great for a game with Michigan.

South Region

(1) Florida

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.3 (1 seed average: +6.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +17.3 (1 seed average: +9.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +5.2
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +1.0
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +13.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +7.3

Florida's severe shot volume dropoff away from home fascinates me, as you'd imagine that would be the thing that would travel. We'll see how real or not it is.

(2) Houston

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +11.8 (seed average: +5.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +13 (seed average: +7.5)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +8.9
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +6.2
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +9.7
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +6.9

(3) Illinois

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.8 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +10.1 (seed average: +5.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +2.6
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.2
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +7.3
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +5.4

The bonus of SVI: it helps erase some of the massive weighting that rebounding alone can give to ESV. That's why Illinois's "true" shot volume is a bit lower than it may appear.

(4) Nebraska

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.8 (seed average: +4.3)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +3.4 (seed average: +6.3)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +3.2
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +3.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +0.9
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +1.7

(5) Vanderbilt

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +5.2 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.2 (seed average: +5.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +3.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +0.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -0.7

(6) North Carolina

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +1.1 (seed average: +4.1)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +2.9 (seed average: +5.8)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +0.3
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -0.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +1.5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +0.3

(7) Saint Mary's

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +5.1 (seed average: +3.4)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +12.6 (seed average: +4.9)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +4.8
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.4
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +12.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +7.1

(8) Clemson

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.9 (seed average: +2.9)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +5.7 (seed average: +4.6)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +2.0
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +2.1
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +1.2
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +2.3

(9) Iowa

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +7.7 (seed average: +3.0)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +7.9 (seed average: +4.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +4.8
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +5.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +4.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +5.8

(10) Texas A&M

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +4.3 (seed average: +2.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +3.5 (seed average: +3.4)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +0.5
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -2.6
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -1.3
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -5

A&M's huge road/top-150 dropoff in SV is descriptive of a team to me that can't scale up...which is what the data said about Bucky Ball at Samford.

(11) VCU

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +3.4 (seed average: +3.5)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.4 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +3.2
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +1.4
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +3.6
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +2.3

(12) McNeese

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +12.3 (seed average: +4.2)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +10.3 (seed average: +5.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: +11.1
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +9.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +9.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +6.6

McNeese's ideal matchup this year would've been Wisconsin or Texas Tech. We'll see if they can get past Vandy.

(13) Troy

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +1.4 (seed average: +3.8)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +3.1 (seed average: +5.1)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.4
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.4
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -1.9
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +2.9

(14) Penn

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.7 (seed average: +2.7)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +2.2 (seed average: +4.0)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -3.2
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +0.7
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -5
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -0.1

(15) Idaho

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +2.5 (seed average: +1.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: +4.9 (seed average: +2.7)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -0.5
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: +1.6
  • ESV, top-150 games only: +0.1
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: +4.1

These are pretty good numbers for a 15. If they'd drawn UConn, I might be interested...but Houston is a death knell for this style in all likelihood.

(16) Prairie View A&M

  • Shot Volume Index overall: +0.1 (seed average: +0.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: -4.6 (seed average: +1.2)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -7.7
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -1.4
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -18.8
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -7.1

(16) Lehigh

  • Shot Volume Index overall: -5.5 (seed average: +0.6)
  • Easy Shot Volume overall: -10.1 (seed average: +1.2)
  • SVI, top-150 games only: -11.5
  • SVI, road/neutral games only: -6.2
  • ESV, top-150 games only: -19.4
  • ESV, road/neutral games only: -11.2

Poor Lehigh has the fifth-worst SVI for a 16 seed in 25 years. The previous four who went before them and did make the Round of 64 lost by an average of 24.3 PPG, generally against much less elite 1 seeds than this batch.