It’s the final stretch of conference play, and the marquee matchups that were saved for last have massive consequences on the regular season title, conference seeding, and the bubble. Tuesday and Wednesday night had major bubble implications and kept the door open for regular-season title claims for the top two teams in both the MWC and WCC.

Gonzaga formerly locked up a share of the WCC regular-season title and the 1 seed in the conference tournament, defeating Portland 89-48 on senior night in Spokane. It also further cements Graham Ike as the lone logical answer as WCC Player of the Year, racking up 19 points, 8 rebounds, an assist and 7 steals in his last game at home. 

But outside of Gonzaga entering Moraga with nothing to lose, this week’s midweek games complicate things as we head to the final couple of weeks for these two leagues. Here are the major storylines headed into what should be a wild weekend and crazy final stretch.

San Diego State keeps its hopes alive

Just as San Diego State was starting to exert its will in the Mountain West, the Aztecs stumbled and dropped back-to-back games against Grand Canyon and Colorado State, both of which appear to be Quad 2 losses after Grand Canyon’s win over UNLV on Wednesday night. The margins were thin for at-large possibilities with Brian Dutcher’s team sitting at 6-6 in Quad 1 and 2 games before their 17-point win over Utah State.

In the 89-72 win at home, San Diego State exuded its defensive will against an Aggies team that leads the conference in both effective field goal percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. Utah State entered the game with a top 10 2-point shooting team in the country to 10% below their season average. San Diego State forced 12 turnovers, the second-highest total since the beginning in January for Utah State outside of the 15 turnovers the Aztecs caused the last time these two teams played.

The topic of conversation for San Diego State fans over the last few days has been the unbelievably large rotation Dutcher is working with this late into the season. The Aztecs are in a precarious position, ranking 8th in minutes continuity from last season while deploying the 16th-most bench minutes in Division I hoops.

This era of college basketball requires considerations that just weren’t nearly on the same radar top-to-bottom of the sport as it is now, with one of the biggest being minute opportunities for bench guys with considerable remaining eligibility. On Wednesday night, the Aztecs played a 9-man rotation and the continuity of lineups resulted in their best win of the season.

Of the nine lineups San Diego State has played with a minimum of 25 possessions–notably low, 8 fewer lineups than what Utah State has played with that possession minimum–senior wing Reese Dixon-Waters is in 7 of them. For San Diego State to navigate these final couple of weeks and feel confident regardless of MWC tournament results, they need Dixon-Waters to be the best version of himself. He’s averaging 15.5 points over the last four games. In games the Aztecs win, Dixon-Waters has an effective field-goal percentage of 56.7%. In losses that average drops to 37.9%.

New Mexico falters against Nevada

The Lobos’ tournament odds took a considerable hit on Tuesday night when they dropped their game to Nevada on the road. They hold an 8-6 Quad 1 and 2 record, with their lone Quad 1 win coming from fellow bubble team Santa Clara. The Lobos’ loss to New Mexico State back in November still looms large as the glut of teams fighting for the final spot remains substantial.

Nevada was one of the two Quad 1 opponents New Mexico had left on its schedule and a considerably easier mountain to climb compared to a senior night game for Utah State in Logan, Utah. New Mexico is 44th in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), six spots behind Santa Clara. 

Freshman Jake Hall has been a dependable piece alongside fellow freshman Tomislav Buljan and senior point guard Deyton Albury. Hall is shooting 44% from behind the arc this season. And on Tuesday, he broke the record for most made threes and points scored in a season by a freshman in the Mountain West. The Lobos have three more games to play.

Saint Mary’s gets their Quad 1 win, Santa Clara still has work to do

The big question leading up to the WCC’s trip to Las Vegas was whether or not the WCC could squeeze out not just multiple bids but three invitations to the NCAA tournament before Gonzaga departs for the Pac-12. The league has three teams in the top 50 of the NET, with viable analytics, for the first time since 2022, the last time they received more than 2 bids to the tournament.

But even with Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara sitting at 26 and 41 in the NET, respectively, trends by the committee and the lack of overwhelming resumés make the thought of both the Gaels and Broncos getting in seem a little too good to be true. Headed into the game, Saint Mary’s had one Quad 1 win with Virginia Tech (who is on the ledge of qualifying as a neutral Quad 1 opponent as 50th in the NCAA’s ranking system). 

Santa Clara’s resumé is more lackluster, with a home win over the Gaels as the lone Quad 1 win on its record, which also includes a Quad 4 loss to Loyola Chicago. And their 19-point loss to Saint Mary’s last night has done no favors for their pitch to the selection committee. Herb Sendek’s team took the lead multiple times in a back-and-forth first half until the final 5 minutes. In that closing run, the Gaels went on a 13-4 run, which bled into the second half, where they outscored the Broncos by 10 points in the first 7 minutes.

The win likely makes the Gaels a lock for the NCAA tournament now and was a welcome return to form for sophomore guard Mikey Lewis, who scored 21 points, had 7 assists and 4 steals. Santa Clara aggressively tried to double Joshua Dent whenever he’d cross half court, but Lewis provided elite decision-making as the secondary initiator. 

The 7 assists are a career high for Lewis and a continued trend of improved play after an inconsistent stretch in the middle of the season. In the first 10 conference games, Lewis held an effective field goal percentage of 42% and averaged 9.1 points per game. He’s averaging 19.7 points and an effective field goal percentage of 54.2% over his last three games.

The Broncos could have afforded a loss at Saint Mary’s (Gaels now have won 25 straight at home) and still had a decent shot of hearing their names on Selection Sunday. It’s hard to say, though, if they could afford a near 20-point loss. Sendek’s team will need to not just avoid another loss before the semifinals of the WCC tournament; that game now appears to be an absolute must-win. And even then, they are likely among the last 8 teams fighting for an at-large bid.

Wednesday night’s game was arguably the worst individual offensive night for both Christian Hammond and Elijah Mahi this season. The two combined to shoot 6 for 16 from the field and had 6 of the team’s 8 turnovers. Both will need to be on their best should they get another chance against Saint Mary’s.

Games to watch

  • San Diego State at New Mexico, Saturday at 11 am PT/2 pm ET, CBS
  • Oregon State at Santa Clara, Saturday at 5 pm PT/8 pm ET, CBSSN
  • Grand Canyon at Utah State, Saturday at 7 pm PT/10 pm ET, FS1
  • Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s, Saturday at 7:30 pm PT/10:30 pm ET, ESPN
  • San Diego State at Boise State, Tuesday at 6 pm PT/9 pm ET, CBSSN