The heart of conference play is finally here, and we have a solid enough stretch of results in league play to discern who is for real and who isn’t. In Lukas Harkins’ first Bubble Watch of the season, we see six WCC and MWC teams with viable game portfolios that could see their names called on Selection Sunday, and a handful of MWC teams that could have a shot if they went on a significant run to close out the season.

Teams like New Mexico, Santa Clara and San Diego State still have work to do to feel fully confident headed into selection deliberations, but there is a ton that could change and be impacted by the final month of games before we get to conference tournaments.

And this weekend kicks that off in a big way with the Saint Mary’s Gaels coming up to Spokane to take on Gonzaga. This rivalry matchup could have the largest impact on tournament seeding that we’ve seen from these games–and not just their own seed lines. 

Because of just how impressive the top 10 teams in the country have been, the margin between 2-seed and 3-seed teams is as narrow as it’s ever been. A Gonzaga win could be a major step towards locking up a 2 seed, while a loss could result in the Bulldogs looking at a 4 seed as a real possibility. Seeding is, of course, always important, but the bracketed path for the Zags is as important as ever now that they’re dealing with the possibility of no Braden Huff, their second leading scorer, for the rest of the season.

The game has major implications for Saint Mary’s as well, which is looking to even their records with the Zags and give themselves a chance to win the WCC regular season for a third season in a row. Because of the magnitude of the game, here are some trends for each team and a look at one of the fringe bubble teams in Harkins’ bubble watch, the Grand Canyon Antelopes, who, at the very least, are a looming threat to pop the bubbles of their new league mates.

Gaels looking for consistency next to Murauskus

This iteration of Saint Mary’s, despite decent roster continuity from the previous season, has struggled to button up games and keep foes at arm’s length like Randy Bennett’s teams have been known to do. Yes, losing award-winning seniors in Mitchell Saxen and Augustas Marčiulionis isn’t easy, but finding the next guy is just something that Bennett’s staff has always seemed capable of doing.

But this year, ball security and defense haven’t been up to the high expectations that previous Gaels clubs have set. Their 11.2 turnovers per game is the highest since the 2021-2022 season. This is also the first season since 2021-2022 that they aren’t leading the conference in opponent effective field goal percentage. But perhaps most surprising is that, after leading the conference in offensive and defensive rebounding rates for three seasons straight, the Gaels lead the WCC in neither category.

The Gaels still have a level of stability, as forward Paulius Murauskus has continued to grow into one of the best players in the league, let alone a forward. The 6-foot-8 Lithuanian is playing 32 minutes per game and averaging 19.3 points and 7.5 rebounds. What’s been most impactful for him and this Saint Mary’s team has been his ability to pin fouls and get to the line. He’s more than doubled his free throw attempts per game from 3.1 attempts the year prior to 7.2 this season, while shooting 84% from the line. The duel between Marauskus and Graham Ike will be an interesting game within the game on Saturday, as they are two of the better foul drawers in the conference.

But Saint Mary’s is still looking for consistency from its other high-volume guys. Mikey Lewis, despite his conference shooting woes, is the second-leading attempt taker on the team while shooting 34.9% from the field. Sophomore point guard Joshua Dent has been a pleasant surprise this season in terms of replacing Marčiulionis, but he has looked shaky against higher levels of competition.

The matchup of this Gonzaga game, however, may not involve any of the Gaels mentioned so far. But with Huff out, the Bulldogs will likely turn to guard-turned-forward Jalen Warley to play small ball five minutes, even with Graham Ike back. This is notable because of Saint Mary’s dedication to the behemoth center tandem of Andrew McKeever and Harry Wessels. Both 7-footers excel at vertical rim protection inside, but have not shown the level of defensive mobility that Saxen displayed throughout his time in Moraga. The stretches where Warley spells Ike, and how successful or unsuccessful Warley is in creating looks and advantages while attacking from the perimeter, could be what decides this game.

Zags survived without Ike, now what?

Gonzaga took care of business in their last three games despite missing their two most important players. Prior to Huff and Ike going down, the Zags looked like near locks to be a 2 seed out west and likely running the WCC gauntlet unscathed. But with Huff perhaps gone, the ceiling and identity of this team are in massive flux.

When Huff was on the floor, he was arguably the best post scorer in the nation, shooting nearly 70% from inside the arc while averaging 17.8 points per game. Ike is no slouch himself, averaging 18.1 points on around 60% shooting from two-point. Despite the overlap of the two, the loss in offense is no doubt massive. This makes this year’s Gonzaga team’s calling card, their defense, something that needs to be leveraged even more in this final stretch of games.

It’s worth noting that Huff has improved as a defender, going from a defensive rating of 101.4 last year to 96.7 this season. But a great Gonzaga defense becomes elite so far this season with Huff off the floor. The Bulldogs are giving up .087 points per possession without Huff playing this season. That would be the lowest per-possession average in the country. In these minutes, the Bulldogs are giving up the 6th-lowest two-point percentage in the nation (44.1%) and the third-lowest two-point jumper percentage (32.3%).

There are a ton of questions about how the Zags will create offense without the automatic floaters and paint touches Huff ate up. The 10-man rotation Gonzaga has played with for most of the year has produced largely even splits for everyone not named Huff or Ike, raising questions about whether Tyon Grant Foster can slide into higher usage and still maintain the quintessential offensive philosophy Gonzaga’s practically perfected for a decade.

Saturday’s game will go a long way towards learning not just what this offense will look like rest of the season, but also how much the ceiling for this team has lowered without Huff.

Grand Canyon, just shy of the best in the Mountain West

As mentioned earlier, the door is not completely shut on Bryce Drew’s Antelopes playing in March, but their rest-of-the-way results would need to be damn near spotless for a chance at an at-large bid. That reality makes the more likely scenario the spoiler that trips up these other potential tournament teams in the Mountain West, a role they’ve already proven more than capable of.

Despite Grand Canyon’s inconsistencies, they’re so dangerous because this is Drew’s best defensive squad over his 6 years in Phoenix. The Antelopes lead the MWC in opponent effective field goal percentage and their Hakeem percentage (block and steal rate) is second only to San Diego State.

It’s the Jekyll and Hyde nature of Grand Canyon’s offense that has kept this team outside of legitimate bubble talk and more materially out of the win column more than they maybe should be. They have as many games this season that they’ve shot over 50% from the field as they have under 38%. Their 29.6% three-point percentage is the 17th-lowest in the country, yet they take more three-point attempts per contest than their opponents.

Grand Canyon needs to find stable offensive pieces. Their best hope is their leading scorer, senior Jaden Henley. The Antelopes are 1-6 when the wing has an offensive rating under 100. Should the Antelopes drag your offense down with them, you’re in danger.

Games to Watch

  • Boise State at Grand Canyon, Friday, 6 pm PT/9 pm ET, FS1
  • San Diego State at Utah State, Saturday, 11 am PT/2 pm ET, CBS
  • Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga, Saturday, 7:30 pm PT/10:30 pm ET, ESPN
  • Utah State at New Mexico, Wednesday, 8 pm PT/11 pm ET, FS1