We’re catching up to a constantly evolving conference tournament week in college basketball, with the WCC already decided and the Zags punching their ticket. Meanwhile, the Mountain West is in the semifinals of their tournament and 3 of the top 4 seeds are still alive. Here are the big threads to follow both for how we got here and what is at stake.

Three bids out of the WCC

The opening rounds of these conference tournaments could not have gone better for Santa Clara and their hopes to go to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 30 years. Bracketologists were mixed after their win over Pacific in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament and whether that was the final game to shift the scales in their favor. But Herb Sendek’s team left no doubt with a massive Quad 1 win over Saint Mary’s in the semifinals.

Basket Under Review’s Lukas Harkins has Santa Clara as one of the last teams with a bye in his projected field, sitting as a #10 seed. Coupled with the autobid Gonzaga and lock of an at large in Saint Mary’s, the Broncos getting picked for the tournament brings the WCC to three bids for the first time since 2022.

Santa Clara’s offensive firepower makes them a compelling sleeper in March, capable of pushing high major teams sitting at that #7 seed line. What’s vital for Sendek’s team is the rest the Broncos will have headed into the tournament. Freshman phenom Allen Graves has been dealing with a twisted ankle for the final 5 games or so of their WCC season and postseason and stretch forward Jake Ensminger suffered lower back tightness in the conference championship game.

Gonzaga winning their two WCC Tournament games practically assures them of a #3 seed, barring a massive surprise from the committee. The Bulldogs have won three Quad 1 games since losing their nonconference leading scorer, Braden Huff, to a knee injury. The wins also all but guarantee the Zags will play their first tournament game in Portland.

Saint Mary’s is looking at somewhere between a #7 and #9 seed on Selection Sunday, with the ongoing conference tournaments potentially moving the Gaels around seed lines, regions and first weekend pods. Their loss in the semifinals shouldn’t scare folks away from a team playing their best basketball to close out the regular season. The Broncos were a blistering 44% from deep in that game, while Randy Bennett’s Gaels were just 6 for 20 from deep, yet the margin was just 5 points at the buzzer.

Adios to the dark horses

Considering the parity level at the close of conference play, it was an appetizing tease that one of the formidable–albeit inconsistent–middle teams could go on a run and knock out either Utah State in their effort to get back to their dominant ways or the bubble teams, New Mexico and San Diego State, desperately trying to get some final quality wins to to bump them over the already ousted high major bubble teams in the ACC and SEC.

Instead, Grand Canyon and Colorado State were knocked out in the quarterfinals and Boise State’s season ended how it began, with an unexplainable loss. The Broncos entered the tourney as arguably the hottest team in the league, winning their last 5 games, including wins against #2 seed San Diego State and the other option as “hottest team”, Colorado State. Leon Rice’s team instead lost by 10 points against an 11th-place San Jose State team that they beat twice in the regular season by a combined margin of 46 points.

Nevada was the higher seed in their matchup against Grand Canyon, but the Antelopes’ offense was coming around by the end of the season to match their league-best defense when it comes to opponent effective field goal percentage and two-point shooting. Steve Alford’s Wolfpack will face off tonight against Utah State, who had their best shooting performance in almost a month with an 80-60 win over UNLV.

Head coach Ali Farokhmanesh and Colorado State won 9 of their last 10 games and shot 38% from three the final two months of the season on almost 24 attempts per game. That hit rate was maintained against San Diego State, but the Rams were unable to score inside the arc, making just 6 of their 23 attempts from two.

Path to two Mountain West bids

Despite their inconsistencies to close the regular season, 2 of the top 3 of the conference face off in the semifinals this season, with #2 San Diego State and #3 New Mexico trying to earn a bid to the tournament and pass over teams like Auburn, Stanford and Cincinnati, who lost in their leagues’ tournaments early. It would be premature to declare the semifinal matchup between the two a “win and get in” opportunity, but reaching the finals could push a team like New Mexico over the bubble with the committee.

New Mexico entered the week in an inopportune standing in the NCAA’s Win Above Bubble (WAB) sitting at 49th and a -0.39 score. They’re four spots behind Auburn in the rankings and closing that gap with a win over the Aztecs helps their argument as the last team in the dance. The Lobos have just one win against a likely tournament team (Santa Clara) and the possibility to add another should VCU win the A10 tournament. So while a win on Friday could put them over the edge, it could be by the skin of their teeth.

San Diego State does not have the margins for any result but winning the tournament to hear their name on Sunday. Freshman Elzie Harrington did not play on Thursday night, the wing has been dealing with a lower leg injury in the closing months of the season. He’s missed now the last two games. Magoon Gwath recorded 2 blocks and the Aztecs frontcourt looked back to their better selves in the win.

How they handle freshman Tomislav Buljan will be a major feature of Friday’s game. Buljan finished with 25 points and 14 rebounds in the Lobos’ win over San Jose State in the quarterfinals.