Week 8 Watchlist: A Glossary of Dumb Things I Have Said This Year

The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

Well, what would Christmas week be without a gimmicky review of the year at hand? I have said a lot of very goofy things in the last year, some of which were here, some of which were on a previous newsletter you may have read. Above all, I have found that I've got a penchant for putting a lot of takes out, both good and bad, even though I think of myself as a pretty calm, anti-reactionary type.

I haven't finished my usual "here are the best songs a white boy with no motion heard in 2025" list, so this gimmicky glossary of Worst Takes by Will Warren in 2025 must do. And yes, this is because it's an unusually short sports week with little to discuss.

• January 10: "Someone is legally required to win 15 or so games in conference play in the ACC. Why not Pitt?" Pitt turned a 12-2, 3-0 ACC start into 17-15, 8-12.
• January 22: Wrote an overlong post implying that Florida had reached peak value, while UConn was due for better results.
• January 25: "North Texas is dramatically under-discussed at the moment." Went 13-5 after this...with losses to an awful UTSA team while dropping 20 spots at KenPom. Can't win 'em all.
• February 7: "Given that 76 of the 81 teams ranked 10th-12th since 1997 ended up a 6 seed or better, maybe Gonzaga just follows the same path they usually do." 8 seed, Round of 32, though on both accounts I'll maintain they got screwed.
• February 14: "In fact, you could argue that . . . the top-end talent we saw in 2013 and 2015 was a little stronger." Wrong.
• February 28: Had VCU, UC Irvine, and George Mason as the mid-majors most likely to win games in March based on their closest historical comps. Combined for zero wins.
• March 17: Had Iowa State (R32) and Maryland (S16) in the Final Four. DID have Duke and Houston, though.
• March 23: "More problematic than that for UK is the aspect of Illinois just running buckwild on the boards both ways." Illinois had a +3 OREB margin entirely cancelled out by the mere fact they couldn't stop turning the ball over. Boring. Also picked SMC over Alabama.
• March 27: On Purdue/Houston: "this is the least-compelling Sweet Sixteen game to me." You doofus.
• April 3-7: 0-3 on Final Four picks. I got them all wrong. Let this be a lesson, youths: you can be wrong a LOT and still get paid to do what I do.
• July 21: On a podcast with Eamonn Brennan, I noted that I hated St. John's build - good job, WW - but also noted I was down on North Carolina. One hit, one miss.
• July 25: I'm going back through old stuff and apparently, on the very first episode of the STATS by Will and Jim podcast - then unnamed - I had UCLA as a top-10 defense. They're 52nd. What was my problem?
• August 20: When asked by Jim to craft a list of 10 teams (high-majors) that I thought would miss the 2026 NCAA Tournament who made it in 2025, I had Clemson and Georgia both ahead of Marquette, seemingly on purpose.
• September 1: Wrote the 3MW preview of San Diego State, who we had 20th. I would've not been that high, but woof!
• October 1: After what's looking like a tremendous hit rate on our ACC Deep Dive, for the Big East, I had DePaul 7th (why?) and Creighton 3rd. None of these will age worse than Seton Hall 11th.
• October 9: On our Big 12 Deep Dive, recorded on my vacation, it seems that I convinced Jim to rank Cincinnati 8th when we both knew they couldn't score. I regret the error.
• October 15: Had Nebraska 15th (!) in the Big Ten.
• November 1: Picked Lafayette (??????) to win the Patriot League. It also seems I picked Alabama to win the SEC. I was hacked.
• November 6: Based on one game, said IU Indy would be the ESPN+ Team of the Year. I doubt it.
• November 13: "My NFL-poisoned brain believes this is a Scheduled Loss for Purdue." Purdue won at Alabama.
• December 1: "A team that's bad at rebounding playing Tennessee seems not ideal." This was about Syracuse, who ended up going board-for-board with Tennessee and won outright.
• December 12: "Texas Tech is officially back." Never wrong, just early, like all these others and all the wrong takes to come.

Onto the Watchlist.

• A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
• B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
• C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
• We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, December 22

A Game

#12 Illinois (-8) vs. #50 Missouri, 8 PM ET, FS1. General irksomeness about neutral sites aside, at least this one is roughly in between the two schools. That makes this basketball's version of either the Red River Shootout or the WLOCP, though much colder and with less pure fanbase rage towards the other at hand.

The good news about this rivalry is that it's usually very close. Illinois is 17-8 in the last 25 matchups but 12 of those wins have been by 11 or less, with the Illini winning by six or fewer ten times. Mizzou is also incapable of escape velocity in this matchup, as seven of their last 11 wins over Illinois are by single digits. It's usually very fun, very funny, and has gone over the Vegas point total five straight seasons. What's not to like?

The usual expectation is for Mizzou to hammer their way to the paint come hell or high water, which is exactly what happened last year against Illinois' typical deep drop, but the Illini are varying their coverages up slightly more this year. Still, Missouri's chance to pull off the upset here will be decided by two things, because God knows it won't be decided by their defense. First: can they generate enough defensive chaos to dictate the pace in transition? Second: can Illinois funneling 78% of Mizzou shots inside the perimeter, as they did last year, work if Mizzou gets to the line as much as they did last year?

B Games

NCAAW: #47 Seton Hall (-3.5) at #86 Creighton, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. I think Seton Hall is Tournament-y, if not all the way there. The Hall has been fantastic in two-way turnover margin, very rarely fouls, and has used off-ball actions and cuts to put their opponents in a serious bind at times. Still, Creighton has a real shot in this matchup. SHU allows a lot of kickout threes, and the thing Creighton's offense has done well this year is take and hit kickout threes. No, this is somehow not the MBB version of this game, though it does sound similar.

Northern Iowa at Saint Mary's, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Not expecting a ton here, as post-COVID UNI is a nasty 4-15 ATS as a 5+ point road dog. However, if there's ever a time one would want to play SMC, the pre-Christmas game immediately preceding WCC play is probably as good as it can get. Both teams are owed some significant two-way 3PT% regression in a negative manner, and if UNI can take advantage of the backdoor/perimeter cuts SMC allows in their attempt to eliminate catch-and-shoot jumpers, this could be a real game.

C Games

NCAAW: #93 Temple at #44 Princeton (-12.5), 11:30 AM ET, ESPN+. Day hoops. If you haven't seen Princeton's offense yet...I mean, watch this game. They're in unbelievably good shape for an at-large bid and might end up wearing home uniforms in the Round of 64 at this rate.

NCAAW: #46 Utah (-6) at #105 Arizona, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. More day ball, but this is a conference game and is really, really important for Utah after a just-okay non-con. Utah really hasn't looked the part of a team able to generate much of anything at the rim against better competition, and their supreme reliance on kickout threes and perimeter cuts will be tested by an Arizona team that, if nothing else, has a good frontcourt.

#211 Abilene Christian (-5) at #328 Texas Southern, 5 PM ET, YouTube. I have this listed for two reasons: it's on when nothing else really is, and this would be a five-alarm fire loss for an Abilene Christian program that is currently tracking for a fourth straight year of underperforming its preseason KenPom rank. Brette Tanner...what's up, man?

#173 Siena at #31 Indiana (-18), 6 PM ET, BTN. Siena has yet to be a double-digit dog this season, but the three times they were last year, they covered the spread and won two of the games (Cornell, Bryant) outright. I think this is a step too far, but you never know.

#119 Davidson at #16 Kansas (-17), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. In the last four seasons, Kansas's final pre-Christmas home game has seen them either trail or be tied with their buy game opponent at the under-8 media timeout of the first half. Can they go five-for-five? (They always win, for the record.)

#260 Bethune Cookman at #2 Arizona (-33), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. No. But I have it here simply because B-C plays a transition-heavy game and could give up 75 points to a team of five hamsters. If Arizona finishes south of 95 I'll be pretty disappointed, and by the same token, given that this is the pre-Christmas game, I would honestly be a little underwhelmed if B-C doesn't touch 70 themselves. Fun for the whole family.

Tuesday, December 23

The A+ Game of the Week

#28 Villanova at #43 Seton Hall (-1), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Yes, this is grade inflation...but it's meaningful grade inflation!

This is also pretty meaningful in the sense that, right now, Seton Hall is the only other team in the Big East (obviously including UConn) with a Tournament-level resume. Villanova and Butler have played well, and the metrics are favorable to a St. John's team that should play better, but the non-SHU and UConn teams need big wins and they need them bad.

As such, I would argue this means much more to Villanova than to Seton Hall, but by the same token, Seton Hall can win this to go into the January 13 home game against UConn potentially 15-1 and 5-0 in the Big East. I do not think that will be happening, but I've seen weirder.

What I'd look for here is pretty simple: a Villanova team that helps hard on the perimeter and wants to eliminate catch-and-shoot threes is susceptible to backdoor cuts and drives from the perimeter. However, that's not really how Seton Hall plays, and as good as their defense is, their super-high aggression has led them to be susceptible to both pick-and-pops and kickout threes, two things this Nova team does very well. Looking forward to this!

B Game

#111 FAU at #44 UCF (-11), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is at the Wide World of Sports, which I do like. I think it's more or less the perfect venue for goofy stuff like this. I want to say that I think UCF is good, and they very well may be, given their dominance on the boards. (A FAU team that is getting shredded on downhill drives to the rim does NOT match up well here.) But I can't find it in me to believe that this particular roster is going to shoot 40.4% from three for an entire season and 75% from the line. Their defense is also...uh, woof. At least they limit transition play somewhat?

C Games

#238 Grambling State at #39 Ohio State (-21), 2 PM ET, BTN. Again, here in the event something develops. To be honest, scheduling a game at 2 PM ET on December 23 against an opponent with nothing better to do that plays a very aggressive defensive style...Jake Diebler, what's up, man? They'll probably be fine and win by 20, but you gotta think these things through a little more.

#188 Harvard at #20 St. John's (-21), 6 PM ET, FS1. This is more like it, Mr. Diebler. Against top-150 competition over the last three years, Harvard is 7-26 and shoots nearly 8% worse from two than against everyone else.

Wednesday, December 24

This begins a three-day stretch of no college basketball. So! Let's get creative.

A Game

It's a Wonderful Life, 8 PM ET, NBC. What else could it be? I would argue that you are NOT DOING IT RIGHT if this isn't on your television on Christmas Eve. I once was a semi-denier, too...thought it was good-not-great...didn't get the hype...then I grew up, and I completely got it. A+.

B Game

Hawaii Bowl, 8 PM ET, ESPN. I put out a question the other day to friends and trusted agents asking for which bowl games in 2025-26 have A) most of the best players available and B) actually matter a little bit to the teams involved. Bonus if C) they're not sponsored by someone evil. I don't think Sheraton Hotels are evil, really, just not my preferred brand if anything. More notably, I was told (hopefully reliably) that despite Cal firing their coach and Hawaii having played in this game 5,000 times, it seems that basically everyone (minus one WR for Hawaii) is going to play here. Hooray!

C Game

Home Alone, 8 PM ET, ABC. I'm gonna be honest: I don't enjoy this nearly as much as a lot of people my age (and older) seem to. It takes a long, long time to get going for me...but the physical gags are top-tier.

Thursday, December 25

AKA, Christmas Day.

A Game

Spurs at Thunder, 2:30 PM ET, ABC. I'll be honest here: I do not watch a ton of the NBA prior to the playoffs, which is as much a function of a busy schedule as it is an intentional choice. But Christmas Day NBA I almost always make room for, and hell, we will not get to see Wemby and SGA play each other an infinite number of times. Real hoop!

B Game

Rockets at Lakers, 8 PM ET, ABC. This is the second-best game of the day for me. This and Nuggets/T'Wolves are both projected first-round matchups but I guess I go star power over anything, and again, I don't know how many KD versus LeBron/Luka matchups we have left in basketball history. For Christmas Day, this might be the very last one. I can't ignore it, particularly as the NFL's attempt to compete on the 25th has completely fallen apart thanks to the teams involved.

C Game

Lions at Vikings, 4:30 PM ET, Netflix. Why this has to be on Netflix I'll never know, save for my answer to everything in life, which is "money." If I ever have a question that I don't have an immediate, rational answer to in media, sports, politics, or domestic living, the answer can pretty much always root back to "money." It's the money! Anyway, the Lions must win this game or I will ruin Christmas Day for two families: my wife's and my own. NOTE: This was written BEFORE they lost to the Steelers, so the only Christmas that has been ruined is America's. Sorry.

Friday, December 26

American sports on this day are, as always, terrible. But! We can look to our international rival(s) for inspiration, as Boxing Day is traditionally a huge day on the soccer calendar in England.

A Game

...Manchester United vs. Newcastle United, 3 PM ET, USA Network. Never mind.

D Games

GameAbove Sports Bowl, 1 PM ET, ESPN. This is Central Michigan versus Northwestern. CMU seems to be with most of their players. Northwestern is not. This is at Ford Field. My dad used to be really into buying $2 tickets for this. That's all I got.

Rate Bowl, 4:30 PM ET, ESPN. New Mexico versus Minnesota. It sounds like Minnesota is gonna be down 10+ players. Boy, I'm so glad we have 40 bowl games or whatever. At least New Mexico is AWESOME and was one of the only things I enjoyed about college football this season.

F Game

First Responder Bowl, 8 PM ET, ESPN. I don't care who is in this or who it's for. (Both teams will be missing several starters.) It's not for me.

Actually, let's save this.

A Game

Marty Supreme, in theaters. I haven't seen this, but the ads have me hooked. Forcing my family to see this on December 26.