The Watchlist Tune o' the Week
I am washed up these days, but I gather that this is Finals Week for undergrads and maybe grads, too. If this applies to you: breathe! It's important to do that from time to time. You'll be fine, unwind. And yes, essays will return once I stop traveling every weekend.
- A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
- B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
- C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
- We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.
Monday, December 8
A Game
Eagles at Chargers, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN. Guys, it's a rough night of basketball and the best games are either buy games or games for fourth place in the 18th-best conference at KenPom. It's still basketball! It's just not very good basketball. Diet Coke, I'll still drink that garbage, etc. After the Cowboys' loss to Detroit, this is trending towards being a game that either functionally wraps up the NFC East (Philly) or leaves it wide-open while moving closer to deleting the Chiefs from the 2025 Playoffs (LAC). As such: handegg wins.
B Game
Monsters Funday Football, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN2. My wife will be watching this one and honestly, I'll probably watch a little as well. I like these one-off altcasts because they are dumb and fun, though I do wish they would do The Simpsons every year. A perfect show.
C Games
NCAAW: #181 Norfolk State at #69 Georgia Tech (-16), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the lone NCAAW game worth recommending on a barren night in a fairly barren week, thanks to this being Finals Week for a lot of colleges. It's 4-6 Norfolk at 3-6 GT. That's where we're at! Anyway, this would be either a much-needed stabilizer for Tech or a much-needed program win for Norfolk after two really underwhelming starts for each.
#200 Southern at #55 Texas (-16), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Texas is not very good, but one of their few positive qualities is an ability to run up huge rebounding margins, along with getting to the line a lot. That probably spells trouble for a Southern squad that's not very good at rebounding and has posted a remarkable foul rate (46.3 FTAs to every 100 FGAs) against top-100 competition.
#195 Incarnate Word at #215 New Orleans (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is one of one games that means anything at all tonight, so it's got that going for it. New Orleans is a very pleasant surprise despite being 2-7: wins over TCU and Tulane and a pushing of Miss State to OT. UIW is more or less the classic Southland Chaos Team that was promised.
Tuesday, December 9
A Games
#11 Illinois (-2) at #34 Ohio State, 6:30 PM ET, Peacock. Illinois is probably the most widely-respected two-loss team in America at the moment, which may or may not say anything but is useful information to know that their 7-2 is better than Ohio State's 7-1 by some distance. One has come against a top-75 SOS; the other is against #323.
This is likely a game where shot volume is pretty equal, and neither team gives up many free throws/pushes the issue too extremely. It's all about shooting for me, and really, it's all about if Ohio State's frontline is gonna be able to handle the -ic Show.
Illinois dumped 32 points in the paint on Tennessee Saturday - the most UT's allowed all year - and dating back to November 2023, Illinois is 39-5 when shooting 55% or better from two. OSU's frontline is less upsetting than initial impressions showed but it's still a team that's given up 57% or worse four times, three of which were to teams 250th or worse at KenPom.
#7 UConn (-3) vs. #14 Florida, 8 PM ET, ESPN. Runner-up for GOTW and, at least in preseason, KenPom's single highest rated game of 2025-26. I don't believe that's the case now, but it's obviously still going to be very good.
A problem with this game as it's constructed is that it could be really, really heavy on free throws, at least depending on officiating. Haslametrics' numbers has this game at an average expectation of 45.5 free throw attempts combined, or around 7-8 more than your average college basketball game. If so, depth will become a concern/factor for each, and if either is able to actually take control of this game in the paint, that can provide the necessary escape velocity. I am hopeful this isn't unwatchable! I've just got fears.
My take on the outcome of this is a little Bill Simmons-y: can you really see Florida being 5-4? I can and I can't.
B Games
#9 BYU (-5) vs. #25 Clemson, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN. Whereas UF/UConn could be a free throw war, this may be a shot volume war in a fun way. Both teams are amongst the nation's best in avoiding turnovers (Clemson 7th, BYU 17th), and both teams have been fantastic at offensive rebounding. This could mean anything in reality, but what it might mean is a lot of long possessions where the teams end up being very efficient but neither team tops, like, 73. I can deal with that if the shot making comes along.
#35 Villanova at #1 Michigan (-15), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Michigan is Michigan and you're aware of Michigan, so let's talk Villanova. Since opening night, Philadelphia's Big East Team has gone 7-0, though none of the wins are over teams expected to win their leagues or even finish top-150 at KenPom. Still, 7-0 is 7-0, and it's happened despite an astonishing run of bad shooting luck. Opponents are 43% from 3 this year, which is overshadowing Kevin Willard crafting a surprisingly good shooting roster that gets back 45% of its missed shots. This could absolutely be more entertaining than you're expecting...or it could be Michigan by 34.
C Games
NCAAW: #67 Columbia at #51 Seton Hall (-5.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Basically, a Seton Hall win here helps build a decent enough at-large case. They won't have a signature win but if they take this and the Auburn game Sunday it may be enough to build up a three or four-bid Big East. That's all I got.
#78 McNeese State (-1) at #106 Rhode Island, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the rare Game That May Be Decided By Exactly One Thing. Almost no one out there is more aggressive on the perimeter right now than McNeese, which is leading to them generating an unreal 22.7 points off turnovers right now. URI, in their three losses, has averaged 17 points allowed off turnovers and has the #217 offensive TO% against the 313th-best defensive schedule in America. This could end up being McNeese +6 or better in the turnover department, which is not ideal in a true coin-flip game.
#229 Brown at #60 Providence (-17), 7:30 PM ET, TruTV. Credit to Kim English (yes, we're doing this): Providence's four losses aren't ideal, but to date, they've avoided the true End Of Watch Loss that defines a lot of dead and dying tenures. This would represent a chance for that, so I suggest they take care of business and gear up to start Big East play 2-0 at all costs.
#94 Penn State at #28 Indiana (-12), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. I think this is a really useful game for one thing: is Darian DeVries a motivator? I believe so, and if he is, this is an amazing get-right spot coming off of two straight losses with a road game at Kentucky looming on Saturday. If his Hoosiers are ready to rip, this has potential to be a 20+ point win and a heartwarmer that calms the waters.
#32 USC (-17) at #264 San Diego, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Yes! At the Jenny Craig Pavilion. San Diego is predictably as bad as every other Steve Lavin San Diego team, which is to say they can't shoot, can't rebound, and can't win. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...
Wednesday, December 10
The A+ Game of the Week
NCAAW: #12 Iowa (PK) at #20 Iowa State, 7 PM ET, ESPN. Yes! Our first Women's A+ Game of the Week of 2025-26. This is possibly the single best women's edition of this rivalry to date and will be just the second time ever (2021) where both teams are in the top 15 nationally in the AP Poll. Also just the sixth time both teams have been ranked when they've played each other. Fun fact: the lower-ranked team in the previous five is 4-1.
The Iowa State calculus revolves entirely around Audi Crooks, who is merely one of the greatest post scorers I've ever seen in WBB. Iowa's post defense is routinely strong and this year is no exception, but going up against Crooks is like playing 5-on-7 sometimes. You have to find a way to force everyone else to beat you. Iowa is one of the few teams out there that can go 1-on-1 with her - this is a gigantic game for one Ava Heiden - but more than anything else, it's a huge game for seeing if the non-Crooks players can hold their own against a strong Iowa side.
A Game
#24 Wisconsin at #42 Nebraska (-1), 9 PM ET, BTN. Yes! Fun! Nebraska is undefeated, which you may or may not know. It's not a super great 8-0, but it's 8-0 all the same. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is the better team...and also has the worse resume as it stands.
I'm hugely fascinated by this game because I'm not sure a single other game played this week will be more based upon shooting variance and/or shot volume. No team has more threes occur in their games than Nebraska, who takes and allows 52% of total shot attempts from three. Wisconsin, meanwhile, takes 51% of their shots from deep.
Wisconsin typically is more aggressive defensively and has given up a good chunk of straight-line drives to the basket, but that's not at all how Nebraska operates, and what this could be is a game where each team is attempting 30+ threes. Then it becomes two things: do you hit them, and do you get back your misses?
B Games
#96 Liberty at #37 NC State (-10), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Liberty's disappointing MTE run has more or less nerfed any at-large bid potential this game could've given them, but I'm sure Ritchie McKay and crew would love nothing more than to steal this one on the road off of an NC State team that has been horrifically leaky on defense.
#85 New Mexico at #41 VCU (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Stop me if you've heard this one before: a VCU defense that is really strong with a great interior and an aggressive group of guards on the perimeter has turnover issues on offense and is a little too reliant on getting fouled to get points. They also play a lot of players. New Mexico can get stops; it's just if they can generate any points of their own to make it interesting.
NCAAW: #42 Illinois (-3) at #79 Missouri, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Good-ish news for Illinois is that they're 8-1 and passed their first test of the year by beating Indiana at home to open up Big Ten play. Bad news is they have to go right back on the road to a Mizzou team that, while atrocious on defense, has been shooting it very well. Illinois is well overdue for some defensive 3PT% regression, too.
C Games
#119 Miami (OH) (-4) at #211 UNC Asheville, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. I highly recommend keeping an eye on this one. Miami Not That Miami has played the very worst schedule in college basketball, with their best opponent being #212 Old Dominion, but 8-0 is 8-0, and this begins a four-game stretch all on the road. What I'm telling you is that Miami has an 18% shot - not nothing! - to be 13-0 and getting AP Poll votes from mid-major lovers. You heard it here first.
NCAAW: #48 South Dakota State (-6.5) at #124 Northern Iowa, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The battle of no offensive rebounds: 307th (SDSU) versus 344th (UNI) in the stat. Again, I am BEGGING you - all caps - to watch Brooklyn Meyer of SDSU play a game. At bare minimum, she is a top-20 player in women's college basketball.
#134 Western Kentucky at #169 Marshall (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. An old-school CUSA battle, as of a few years ago. I think this also would've been an OVC rivalry 70 years ago? This is a moderately fun affair between two very different offenses.
#113 Minnesota at #6 Purdue (-19), 7 PM ET, BTN. My opinion is that Purdue is almost certainly above a severe goof-up, but this is a Purdue defense gettable in transition (surprisingly to me!) and in P&R coverage, particularly against offenses capable of hitting the short roll quickly. Minnesota is a sometimes yes to both of these things.
NCAAW: #119 Rutgers at #39 Princeton (-16), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Princeton Update: +3.1 WAB and 9-1, with SIX (!) top-100 wins, four of which were away from home. If their WAB didn't change the rest of the way it would already be good enough for a 10 seed last season, which makes them way ahead of schedule.
#142 Duquesne at #50 Boise State (-12), 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network. I think you can chalk Boise State up as this year's early most What Are You team. 1-2 in Maui with the only win over Chaminade, the opening night loss to D2 Hawaii Pacific...and yet. They're top-50 at KenPom, just beat a top-50 Butler on the road, own wins over two other top-100 teams, and have a season-legitimizing opportunity if they beat Saint Mary's on Sunday.
NCAAW: #81 Ball State at #24 Louisville (-16), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. Well, it's a very light slate. But Ball State, after they (likely) lose their next two to go 8-4, should win a minimum of 14 games in the MAC. Could be 24-6 and 16-2, or could be 26-4 and 18-0. Time will tell.
#231 Lamar at #45 San Diego State (-18), 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Lamar's offense against the SDSU defense is a likely death knell, but I love the elite shot volume Lamar provides on a nightly basis, usually settling in at about 8 more field goal attempts per 100 than their opponents. If only they could actually hit the shots.
Thursday, December 11
A Game
#26 Iowa at #2 Iowa State (-11), 8 PM ET, FS1. Men's version of the women's rivalry. To be sure, it's not like this is an obviously lesser version. They're both bangers that should be viewed by all.
The average commentator this week will have two things to say about this game: that Iowa's one true road game so far against real competition ended in a demolition, and that Iowa State (now #2 in KenPom!) Needs More Love and/or Is As Good As Michigan. Naturally, I think Iowa has a good shot at keeping this one close and possibly pulling out the outright upset.
For one, Iowa State is not built to out-bully Iowa in the frontcourt the same way Michigan State did, which will happen again later this season when Iowa plays Purdue and Illinois. Iowa State's good at rebounding, to be sure, but interior play through post-ups is not ISU's go-to. Meanwhile, an Iowa offense that thrives on pull-up jumpers, backdoor cuts, and pick-and-pops is going up against a Cyclone defense happy to let you bomb away from deep.
Also...I just got a feeling that some regression is due here. Iowa State is sitting on 44% 3PT/53% midrange through nine games, both of which would be record-setting numbers. Now, I love Iowa State's team, but 44% 3PT/53% midrange is the same as 2019-20 Seth Curry. Are the Cyclones a team entirely constructed of the best year of Seth Curry's life? I do not think so, but if Iowa can actually out-physical them (and avoid turnovers, of course) to win the game, it will indeed be a surprise. I still think it's close.
B Games
NCAAW: #68 Georgia Tech at #27 West Virginia (-13.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I can't figure out West Virginia at all, a team who beat Duke with five (5) eligible players after a mid-game fracas...but who lost by 22 at home to Villanova two weeks later. Who are you, exactly?
C Games
#287 Green Bay (-2) at #345 IU Indy, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. IU Indy is unfortunately Boring now. They've only scored 78 and 55 in their last two games. Despicable. Please dump 93 on Doug Gottlieb.
NCAAW: #137 Idaho State at #57 BYU (-13.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. The Big Sky is actually pretty fun on the women's side. All of Montana State, Idaho, and Idaho State are top-150 teams, with Idaho State's defense holding all opponents to 71 or less so far.
#176 Saint Joseph's at #63 Syracuse (-14), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. This kickstarts a five-game stretch for Cuse in which they'll be 10+ point favorites five games in a row. If they can avoid a mishap in those five, I think it's worth handing it to Red Autry, because self-immolating as a 10+ point home favorite has been The Syracuse Way for a few years now.
Friday, December 12
A Game
None. Fine, RB Leipzig at Union Berlin, 2:30 PM ET, ESPN+. The Bundesliga is Bayern's domain this year - a +40 goal differential through 13 games is truly one of the wildest things I've ever seen - but spots 4-12, the first of which gets a Champions League spot, are fairly even and up for grabs. Union Berlin badly needs three points here to keep pace.
B Game
#55 Texas at #7 UConn (-14), 8 PM ET, FOX. I'll be real with you: there's a path where this could actually be pretty interesting. Texas hung with Duke for 30 minutes, beat NC State outright, and played a very exciting and tense game with Arizona State that went down to the final possession. Even in the Virginia game, you could just say "Virginia shot 50% from 3 while Texas shot 21%." Normalize that out a bit and Texas would've only lost by...I don't know, 5-10.
Alternately: Texas has played four games against real opponents, is 1-3, and has averaged 1.25 PPP allowed to those teams, all of whom got to the line at will.
C Games
NCAAW: #149 UT Arlington at #86 Rice (-10), 12:15 PM ET, ESPN+. Day ball on a brutal day. Blame finals. Rice basketball is...good! They're 7-3 and are probably the American's second-best team after South Florida. More importantly for you: they are #1 in the nation in fewest 3PAs allowed. Just 21% of opponent attempts come from deep. Mathball of a sort.
#114 East Tennessee State (-4) at #193 Austin Peay, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This feels like it should be a conference game and indeed once was, as part of the ASun. I've noted this in a previous watchlist but the ETSU defense is legit, a really nasty unit that suppresses shot volume very well. Jaylen Smith and Cam Morris are Certified Dudes. Keep an eye on them in the SoCon.
#129 Cal Baptist (-5) at #237 Eastern Washington, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. We had a bit on last week's STATS pod about Cal Baptist's rebounding prowess, and true to form, they got back 54% of their misses against Utah in a a close road loss. It's them and Utah Valley in the WAC for me.
