Welcome to another edition of the weekend watchlist! We've got notes on 31 games taking place over the next two days.
Before you dive in, read a recap of Gonzaga's rout of Kentucky from Joey Dwyer and this extremely prescient piece on Kentucky's roster construction from Will Warren.
Below you'll also find yesterday's top performances and our Saturday Watchability Index. Enjoy the hoops this weekend!
Saturday, December 6
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#3 Duke at #10 Michigan State (-1), 12 PM ET, FOX.
As usual, we have a rule here: you wanna be the Game of the Week (or Weekend), you gotta play it at a true home court. Sorry, Tennessee/Illinois, but we don't need a Bridgestone Arena game for the Game of the Weekend.
These are two of the best teams in America in two-way shot volume, and at the time of writing, Duke (+125 in rebound/turnover margin) is in third place ahead of MSU (+118) at fifth. In the event that shot volume is roughly cancelled out, it would create a fascinating interior battle that MSU basically has to win to take this game home.
We're not expecting much from the Spartans shooting-wise on the average night, but a good target number for MSU is 51% on twos. When they've hit that mark under Izzo the last four-plus seasons, they're 65-11 (37-37 otherwise). Exactly one team (Kansas, 56%) has gone above 47% versus Duke this year, and just six teams (UNC twice!) went 51% or better last year. It's a tough nut to crack.
If Michigan State's gonna crack that nut, Jaxon Kohler has to be way more efficient in the post. Hoop-Explorer has him at just 0.71 PPP adjusted for opponent, and the 8-26 FGA on post-ups he's put up so far this year simply isn't gonna cut it in a game like this. Still, this is Duke's first real road game of the year, and the first road game for a young team can often be an Experience™. - Will Warren
A Games
#4 Iowa State at #2 Purdue (-5), 12 PM ET, CBS.
To paraphrase Dan Patrick, you can’t stop Braden Smith in ball screens, you can only hope to contain him. Drop coverage has proven to be time and again the worst option at containing him, and the early book was he struggled with an aggressive hard hedge and ice coverage. Smith’s passing and navigating against Houston last March more or less put all of that to bed, but there was already a growing body of evidence before that the hedge was no longer quite as viable. Regardless, Iowa State is going to throw an aggressive hedge at him try to push him up the floor, that's just their identity defensively (although TJO is more willing to mix coverages than Kelvin Sampson). The problem for the Clones here is that even if they deny Smith, TKR is so elite in short roll creation (two elite short roll creators in this game with Joshua Jefferson on the other end), and can spray out to Fletcher Loyer and CJ Cox for the weakside triple the ball side overload begets. This is what Purdue will be looking to do early and often against the Clones.
If not that, Painter will be looking to scramble the ubiquitous Iowa State post help in high low actions with Oscar Cluff and TKR (and Cluff and TKR can flip those roles, as Cluff is just as viable in the short roll). Hoop-explorer data paints the picture of how Purdue's offensive structure can work against this defense.
Not only is Purdue uniquely qualified to handle this aggressive help and denial defense, but in addition to being an elite first shot offense, the Boilers fortify it by dominating the offensive glass, where ISU’s scramble often leaves them slightly out of position for the defensive rebound.
On the other end, it sounds like Tamin Lipsey is likely to give it a go on his bum groin, and he’s essential for ISU’s ball screening, downhill offense. ISU is fully weaponized to exploit Purdue’s overhelping on the dribble, even if they likely fall juuuust a little short of the 22 threes (my God) they hit against Alcorn State- but my point is you can go at a few Purdue perimeter defenders and put them in rotation, where ISU thrives offensively. That said, given this is at Mackey and Purdue has all the pieces to beat this ISU defensive structure, I’m more inclined towards the Boilers. - Jordan Majewski
#26 Indiana vs. #13 Louisville (-4), 2 PM ET, CBS.
These two are mirrors of each other in many ways, and both suffered their first loss of the season in similar fashion in their first road tests of the season. Both offenses are very three point reliant and can become stagnant against ball pressure and switching defenses, and both have major physicality concerns in the frontcourt. Indiana's frontcourt issues seem more severe however, as getting out physicaled/out athleted by Arkansas in Bud Walton isn't that shocking, but the Hoosiers getting humbled by a nonexistent Gopher frontcourt was extremely troubling.
IU can get a little spectatorish with Tucker DeVries' shot making, and when he runs into someone with size who can defend him on the perimeter (like Crocker-Johnson did), games like Wednesday can happen. Today he's likely to get the J'Vonne Hadley treatment, and we've seen that movie before, as Hadley stuck to TDV in Atlantis last year, limiting him to 8 points on 3-9 shooting.
Worth noting IU has some experience in Gainbridge this year, having played Baylor in exhibition season, but in similarly constructed teams, I’m more inclined towards the team with the higher ceiling and more capable frontcourt, which is the Cardinals. - Jordan Majewski
#17 Illinois vs. #16 Tennessee (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN.
This is a Bridgestone Arena game, which marks the third of three games in the initial Illinois/Tennessee series. Neutral-site affairs annoy me, but at least this one comes after a real home-and-home.
There is a surprise air of desperation about this game after Tennessee's road loss to Syracuse and Illinois losing on Black Friday to UConn. Both have other chances to garner big wins before conference play gets rolling, but a loss here does put you behind the 8-ball for what each team believes they're capable of, which is better than a 4 seed.
I don't think this one will be too similar to either of the first two editions of this mini-rivalry, as there's no allegory for Knecht/Lanier on the Tennessee roster and no booty-ball type like Marcus Domask/tall guard like Jakucionis on Illinois. Instead this is going to be a really strange battle between two teams that are fabulous on the boards, have negative turnover margins, and are quietly very reliant on rim scoring, though in different ways.
My basic thought is that Tennessee can and should win this game if they do something they did the first two games, which was A) win the rebounding battle and get back >35% of their missed shots, while B) holding Illinois to 30% or worse from three. Illinois is going to rip jumpers nonstop regardless of what Tennessee does about it, but Tennessee has been outstanding at forcing deep threes, with almost a third of all opponent 3PAs coming from 25 feet or deeper, per Synergy. If Illinois gets into modes where they're shooting from 27 feet, it feeds right into what Tennessee wants to do, and the Volunteers can move to 3-0 despite looking like the lesser team thus far. - Will Warren
#20 Auburn at #8 Arizona (-8), 10 PM ET, ESPN.
Sometimes, I like to dump stats in here and let them speak for themselves. I think this is a good one. Under Tommy Lloyd, when Arizona either shoots 56% from two or 37% from three, they're 56-7. When they do both: 42-3, for a combined record of 98-10. When they do neither: 21-23. Focus on those two numbers. More than any other action or item from this game, they'll tell you if Arizona will hold serve on their home court. - Will Warren
B Games
#62 Dayton vs. #24 Virginia (-5), 12 PM ET, ESPN2.
Both these teams excel via their usage of stretch-5s on offense, allowing them to open up the court for drives and mid-post attacking from their 4-men. Johann Grunloh (Virginia) and Amael L’Etang (Dayton) are not true high-volume threats from deep, but they can pull their opponent away from the bucket. That’s critical, as both players are effective rim protectors (particularly Grunloh).
That should allow for big games from other scorers: slashing wing Malik Thomas and mismatch forward Thijs De Ridder for the Cavaliers, jitterbug guard Javon Bennett and scoring wing De’Shayne Montgomery for the Flyers. Virginia just blitzed Texas’ overmatched defense, and rookie dynamo Chance Mallory has been a serious spark plug off the bench, as well.
Keonte Jones’ presence could be critical here. The Flyers’ late portal addition will be the best athlete on the court, using his lanky limbs to disrupt Virginia’s offensive flow. He can also be an effective slasher on offense, and if he gets De Ridder in foul trouble (the talented Belgian recently fouled out of back-to-back games against Marshall and Northwestern), that could swing the outcome of the game. - Jim Root
#36 Ohio State (-1) at #55 Northwestern, 2 PM ET, BTN.
If you only looked at Ohio State's buy game results, you'd think the Buckeyes are Final Four bound. If you only looked at Ohio State's power conference game results (+1 at home vs. Notre Dame, -1 at Pittsburgh), you'd think they're bubble-bound at best. Add in that Ohio State still hasn't allowed a single team to top 32% from deep this year, and the red flags are all over the place as it pertains to the Buckeyes this season.
On the flipside, while the season has been quite encouraging in a vacuum for Northwestern, the reality is that their best win is South Carolina on a neutral court by two points. Close isn't close enough if you don't win! And then they turned around and took a first half whooping at the hands of Wisconsin in their Big Ten opener.
So here we stand - two teams with reasons to be optimistic but lacking the on-paper results that become more and more critical as the season progresses. It's very possible that this game comes down to the wire like projections expect and two teams on the periphery of NCAA Tournament contention remain there. But this is a golden opportunity for both Northwestern and Ohio State to make a statement and prove they're for real.
As an aside - what a shame it would be for two Big Ten superstars in Bruce Thornton and Nick Martinelli to finish their careers without a trip to the Big Dance. Let's get these guys in. - Matthew Winick
#60 Boise State at #40 Butler (-5), 2 PM ET, TNT.
A rematch of a College Basketball Crown matchup last season, Butler and Boise State meet in Hinkle Fieldhouse for the first leg of a home-and-home. For Butler, this marks the only nonconference top-100 opponent visiting Indiana’s Basketball Cathedral this season.
Rewind to the CBC meeting between these teams last April, and some of the big names remain present on both rosters. Butler’s Finley Bizjack scored a career-high 30 points in that season-ending loss, and used it as a launching pad into averaging 19.0 points this season on .636 eFG%. Evan Haywood also scored a career-high 14 against Boise last year, and is now shooting 15-for-31 from three in an increased reserve role to begin this season.
Boise State’s Javan Buchanan similarly parlayed an excellent game against Butler last season (27 points) into a steady start to this campaign, reaching double-digits in six of eight contests. Andrew Meadow, Pearson Carmichael, and RJ Keene are all also back.
Of the newcomers, Butler’s Michael Ajayi (16.3 ppg, 12.0 rpg) is a double-double machine, while Boise State features two high-major transfers in former UCLA guard Dylan Andrews (11.9 ppg, 4.5 apg) and former Georgetown big Drew Fielder (12.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg).
A significant area to watch in this game will be Boise State’s transition defense. The Broncos rate in the 80th percentile for transition rate allowed, but are dead-last nationwide in points surrendered per transition opportunity (1.32) against DI opponents. The Broncos will want to defend in the half-court, where they rank in the 81st percentile, but Butler rates in the 90th percentile for transition attempt rate — highest of any Boise opponent to date.
That said, Butler starting point guard Jalen Jackson has missed the last two games. The Bulldogs play at a 76.3 possessions per game pace with him on the floor compared to a 71.7 pace when he sits. If he remains out, defensive-minded freshman Stink Robinson will be tasked with starting for a third consecutive contest. - Lukas Harkins
#29 Baylor (-2) at #74 Memphis, 4:30 PM ET, CBS.
I am running the St. Jude Half Marathon (#ad) before this one, but am unlikely to actually attend the game. Alas, my traveling party is not up for it. Point taken. Penny Hardaway MUST begin to cover the spread as a huge favorite one time to juice the metrics in my favor.
This is probably a top-three game of the weekend in terms of postseason leverage. Baylor's best win as it stands is over an okay Creighton team, while Memphis is, you know, 3-4. Memphis has opportunities after this to pick up season-savers before AAC play, but Baylor really doesn't, and this is probably Memphis's last serious shot at a season-saver because the next two games are at Louisville (no) and versus Vanderbilt (likely not).
Both defenses have been among the nation's best in rim attempt prevention, with Baylor allowing the second-fewest rim attempts and Memphis the 25th-fewest. Considering both offenses also love midrange jumpers more than most programs, this is the rare game that could be largely decided by production from 10-20 feet. Baylor's got a more diverse set of scorers, but Dug McDaniel does have the capability to swing a game with his array of runners, floaters, and yes, 17-footers.
Basically this is a true 50/50 game to my eye which could be determined by any number of things, but the midrange appears foremost. Memphis has also gotta be way, way better on the defensive boards than usual...so, we'll see. - Will Warren
#53 Wake Forest vs. #68 West Virginia (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN2.
Ahead of Wake’s game against Oklahoma, I had serious concerns about their high hedge against OU’s offensive structure, and the Sooners cut behind the defense with ease in Winston-Salem, particularly in the second half.
West Virginia is scoring 1.4 PPP via cut on a 90th percentile rate, per Synergy data, but I have concerns about the effectiveness of their undersized and sometimes turnover prone backcourt against the initial hedge, but both Lorient and even Obioha have been serviceable short roll facilitators. That’s where Wake is going to have to make hay, as otherwise West Virginia’s defense doesn’t allow much. They’ve surrendered just .5 PPP to ball screen creators (and a rowdy .4 PPP when you filter for just P5 opponents) in a typical North Texas coverage, and they’re allowing just an 11th percentile transition rate with the best defensive rebounding rate in the country taboot. Oklahoma held Wake to just 4 transition possessions, and the Deacs proceeded to post just .94 PPP on their home floor. Yikes. If that aggressive hedge isn’t allowing for transition via turnovers, it’s going to be difficult for the Deacs to get into efficient halfcourt offense against this defense. - Jordan Majewski
#51 Santa Clara (-2) at #109 New Mexico, 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network.
Major injury concerns for Santa Clara as they head into the Pit, with volume scorer Christian Hammond described as “close to returning” and hub big Jake Ensminger is “progressing” per Herb Sendek. Hammond’s scoring is important, but more or less capable of being replaced. Ensminger however has the highest rated DBPR on the team with Santa Clara a net 19 points better when he’s on the floor, per EvanMiya data. Without him in the frontcourt, Utah Tech shot 62% on 2PT attempts and the Broncs allowed a season high 40 rim points. New Mexico doesn’t generate a ton of offense at the rim, but Ensminger would certainly be helpful against Tomi “The Bull” Buljan, who is expected to return to the Lobos frontcourt, especially given the obscene foul rates of Oboye and Graves. UNM’s offense typically runs through multiple PNR sets, but Santa Clara’s big, versatile lineup has graded out as a 90th percentile overall PNR defense to date. UNM meanwhile typically has two on the ball screen and post, and their heavy help could kill them against a Santa Clara lineup where virtually everyone is a passer and a shooter. - Jordan Majewski
C Games
#89 Utah Valley at #110 Bowling Green (-1), 1 PM ET, ESPN+.
Ahead of BGSU's trip to Bramlage, I noted the Falcons' hyper aggressive hedging and ball screen coverage would really flatten out Kansas State's drive and kick offense. Not only did KSU score just .74 PPP in attack and dish (per hoop-explorer), Bowling Green flipped the script and scored 1.44 PPP in that regard in a game they completely controlled from start to finish. Utah Valley however doesn't play through the ball screen much, preferring to operate in the post and booty ball with Jackson Holcombe and Isaac Davis as offensive facilitators, playing off each other on a 98th percentile rim rate.
It can be difficult to get into post offense against this BGSU defensive structure, and UVU's guards are quite turnover prone as well, but with two teams who have great positional size for midmajors and love to play at the rim, the Wolverines are the much superior rim defense. That said, the Falcons have the better spacing and perimeter shooting threats. While Todd Simon and Todd Phillips haven't faced each other as head coaches, they're very familiar with schematic styles from Phillips drawing up the scout for Mark Madsen against Simon's Southern Utah teams. I can make a schematic argument for both sides here, so perhaps safer to fall back on UVU's one-off travel to NW Ohio, especially after an MTE in Mexico and a trip to San Diego State in the past week and a half. - Jordan Majewski
#87 Marquette at #27 Wisconsin (-11), 2 PM ET, FS1.
The battle of I-94 pits two programs on different paths. Wisconsin used to be the bastion of internal development, but the starting lineup now features three transfers in Nick Boyd, Andrew Rohde and Austin Rapp (Rapp did come off the bench against Northwestern last game, though). Marquette, meanwhile, did not take a single transfer this offseason after excelling with imports like Tyler Kolek and O-Max Prosper.
Marquette has not shown much of an ability to get stops without forcing turnovers. That is a problem against Boyd, John Blackwell and the Badgers, who rank 33rd nationally in turnover rate. The Badgers will spread out the Golden Eagles’ defense, force Ben Gold to defend in the pick-and-roll, and merciless pound the paint with drive-and-kick action off those ball screens.
The Badgers have been spotty against higher-level competition this year, getting blasted by BYU and handled by TCU. They did completely control wins over Providence and Northwestern, but athleticism and speed have clearly given Wisconsin problems. Marquette could be down a speedster in PG Sean Jones (missed last six contests), but rookie Nigel James has been impressive as the primary ball-handler. Chase Ross and Zaide Lowery could have big games; Wisconsin only has one John Blackwell on the perimeter.
Wisconsin has won three of the four meetings in this rivalry since Shaka Smart arrived. The Golden Eagles did get a victory last year, though, and Smart has a sterling historical track record as a road underdog. I’d guess this one is a tight battle with plenty of efficient scoring on both sides. - Jim Root
#58 George Mason at #73 Virginia Tech (-2), 3 PM ET, ESPN+.
This is GMU's first road game of the entire season, which is wild. At the time of writing, they're one of just 35 teams in America to have not played on the road yet. That's pretty interesting! I was unaware Tony Skinn had the capacity at GMU to schedule like a high-major does.
Virginia Tech's home environment is...yeah, but how teams react in these first road games is usually not great. So far this season, single-digit road underdogs are covering at just a 43% rate, and we've already seen examples this week (Utah State, Louisville, Tennessee, etc.) of otherwise very good teams nuking their shorts in the first half of their first road game.
Against teams of decency, the VT offense has operated very well in off-ball actions, producing some fabulous results with DHOs and off-ball screens. In their five games against top-100 teams, those actions are averaging 1.26 PPP - yes - with Neo Avdalas and Jaden Schutt running wild.
Mason's defense is very sound and strong, but the one way they've been taken down all season is via off-ball screens, which is strange for a defense more aggressive than the norm. I think in a first road game against an offense well-designed to take advantage of the tradeoffs GMU makes defensively, it could spell some trouble for the Patriots for the first time all season. - Will Warren
#65 Seton Hall at #75 Kansas State (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPNU.
Seton Hall’s 7-1 start has largely been on the back of its defense. However, the looming matchup against Kansas State presents some opportunity for the offense. Kansas State ranks 312th nationally in 2P% allowed, due largely to rating in just the 38th percentile for attempt rate allowed within 4.5 feet and surrendering 67.5% shooting on those attempts. Recent trending isn’t positive, either. During an ongoing three-game losing streak, Kansas State has allowed Nebraska, Indiana, and Bowling Green to shoot 65.2% inside the arc.
Seton Hall, meanwhile, is one of the more downhill-attacking teams in the country. The Pirates rank just 328th in 3-point attempt rate and score over half of their points on 2-pointers. Harkening back to rim rate, Seton Hall rates in the 85th percentile for shots taken within 4.5 feet. After a slow start of converting on just 49.5% of those shots over their first four games, the Pirates have finished on 73.2% at the rim over their last five contests.
On the flip side, Kansas State’s offense could potentially avoid what makes Seton Hall’s defense great. While the Pirates thrive inside defensively, ranking 10th in 2-point percentage allowed and first in block rate, Kansas State lives on the perimeter. The Wildcats rank 10th nationally in 3-point percentage (41.0%); their attempt rate settles only around the national average, but expect that to rise in avoidance of Hall’s shot-blockers.
Kansas State’s tempo will be important to watch. The Wildcats rank 20th nationally in average possession length, while Seton Hall forces the 15th-slowest possessions. Can K-State play at their pace in front of their crowd? For the season, the Wildcats is at .607 eFG% when attempting shots in the first 15 seconds of the shot clock and .500 eFG% in the final 15. - Lukas Harkins
#54 Akron (-9) at #173 Tulane, 4 PM ET, ESPN+.
Akron's spread and shred offense vs Ron Hunter's funky zone? Sign me up. Bucknell actually just full game zoned the Zips and didn't live to tell the tale, with Akron scoring 1.3 PPP in zone offense and 1.4 PPP overall on 12-29 3PT shooting. Akron is the most efficient drive and kick offense in the country, and while Tulane's extended zone isn't the easiest to penetrate, they've been obliterated when it happens, and that's been against the 329th rated schedule, where they've been ekeing out games against the worst teams in Louisiana. - Jordan Majewski
#67 Colorado at #66 Colorado State (-4), 5 PM ET, CBSSN.
The Colorado vs. Colorado State rivalry begins a new chapter as the Ali Farokhmanesh era is underway in Fort Collins. The Rams are No. 1 nationally in 3-point percentage. They also lead the country in assist percentage. Every single one of their players that have taken 10+ threes this year is hitting them at a 40%+ clip. It's gorgeous offensive basketball. They finally had a poor shooting game against Virginia Tech in their Feast Week MTE, and then turned around and shot a bonkers 28/52 from deep in their next two games.
Not to be outdone, Colorado is sitting 7th in 3-point percentage at 41.6%. The difference is they rarely take any, instead opting to attack the hoop. Nearly half of their attempts come at the rim, and they're strong finishers and elite at drawing fouls. They've passed both tests against Top-100 KenPom teams, both have yet to play a true road game as they head into a raucous road environment for the first time all season here.
Both defenses, to put it kindly, have been very subpar early on. But notably, the Rams are hellbent on taking away rim attempts against a rim-heavy Buffaloes team, whole Colorado plays a 3-point denial drop coverage with tons of length against 3-point-happy Colorado State.
All told, this checks both the narrative and schematic intrigue boxes, and should be among the top of your list of games to check out on a mammoth Saturday slate. - Matthew Winick
#59 Washington at #28 USC (-8), 6 PM ET, BTN.
Big Ten play has begun. Washington figures to have a minor strength advantage here in the rebounding department, as USC has been shockingly leaky on the defensive boards and offensive rebounding appears to be the one thing the Huskies do consistently well. USC is far taller, though, and a Washington offense that doesn't do a great job of creating quality twos could be in hell against a stout USC interior.
This represents some early desperation for a Washington team that badly needs something to show as proof of concept for a Danny Sprinkle team I've been disappointed by so far. The defense is above expectation, but this offense frankly kind of sucks to watch right now, and when the things you can point to are offensive rebounding and midrange jumpers...yuck. Give me some better selling points, fellas. - Will Warren
#84 Oregon at #33 UCLA (-10), 6 PM ET, Peacock.
UCLA's rotation at the 5 is so bad defensively we saw a Mick Cronin defense in zone for 34 possessions, which is more than UCLA has played the past two seasons combined. What's wild is that it was actually effective, with Washington scoring just .8 PPP in zone offense. To be honest I wasn't sure what Mick's plan was defensively against Washington, as Bilodeau was literally getting eaten alive by Hannes Steinbach without help, and Xavier Booker gets lost on the perimeter in Cronin's hedge scheme. It also effectively masked Donovan Dent's defense, which has quietly been atrocious (-19 on/off margin per EvanMiya data). Honestly, the zone might be here to stay in some capacity, because there's simply no improving the defense of Bilodeau and Booker, and Jamerson is too big of a sacrifice on offense. The question is will the zone maintain its effectiveness after the novelty and surprise effect wears off. Oregon's most efficient offensive game to date was against Oregon State's zone, and it sounds as if Nate Bittle is trending towards playing, who scored 1.4 PPP himself in zone offense vs the Beavs. Fascinating game just in terms of what UCLA is going to do defensively, but if Bittle is a full go, I'd take a flier on the Ducks. That zone simply isn't going to work out long term, and watching Cronin revert to its use is like watching an elderly loved one suddenly start to use a walker. - Jordan Majewski
#120 William & Mary at #64 George Washington (-10), 6 PM ET, ESPN+.
The battle of Colonial America, or at least the battle over Disney's America. This is a packed Saturday, but this game takes place during a mild lull in the action, which is my ask for you to watch at least some of this matchup.
Save for IU Indy (who W&M does play faster than offensively), nobody in America will play a style on offense as fun and loose as Brian Earl's Tribe will this season. W&M is 8-2, has jumped 111 spots on KenPom since opening day, and has lit opponents on fire, shooting 60% from 2 and garnering one of the highest Assist Rates in the sport.
Now, the two top-100 opponents they've played (Richmond and St. John's) were both losses, but there's no shame in road wins over Bowling Green and Duquesne. George Washington and Chris Caputo have to be ready for a fairly unique matchup, as only South Florida among their nine opponents rank inside the top-60 in offensive pace.
Outside of transition, W&M's most effective tool in the half-court has been tons and tons of backdoor cuts from the perimeter, with point forward Kilian Brockhoff often being the initiator. George Washington, for all they've done well, sits in the 42nd-percentile right now in defending these actions at Hoop-Explorer. Synergy disagrees and has them much higher, but it doesn't count backdoor cuts from post-ups (GW's not great at defending these, either). I'm looking at that as a differentiator to keep W&M live in a game where they're almost certainly at an athletic disadvantage and need to make up for really poor shot volume on offense. - Will Warren
#102 Grand Canyon vs. #50 Oklahoma State (-4), 7:30 PM ET, CBSSN.
Grand Canyon has struggled mightily against two on the ball/hedge defenses, which is what Oklahoma State is bringing with them to Phoenix. Meanwhile offensively the Pokes want to get in transition and get downhill as frequently as possible off the dribble. Grand Canyon is going to stay in drop coverage and they're strong in transition and rim denial. OSU is peddles efficiently in the midrange however, which is where GCU wants you to live (although Vyctorious Miller is questionable). If OSU can generate turnovers from a shaky Lopes backcourt, they'll likely be in business. However, there is some two way 3PT regression, with the Lopes under expectation offensively and OSU over expectation defensively on a high 3PTA rate allowed (although the Synergy expected efficiency isn't as much of a difference as I would have thought, given OSU's defensive structure). Perhaps all of that comes to fruition in front of the Havocs. - Jordan Majewski
#52 Ole Miss at #18 St. John's (-10), 8 PM ET, Peacock.
First true road game for Ole Miss and they're heading to MSG with less than immaculate vibes, to quote the youth. Chris Beard was hyper critical of his team following the home loss to Miami, and Malik Dia seems to have found his way back to the doghouse. Severe frontcourt mismatch in favor of the Johnnies, and Pitino has had a week and a half to prep after the Vegas trip. I have a strong feeling this one could get away from the Rebs quickly, unless Beard's post game presser lit several fires. - Jordan Majewski
#83 Arizona State vs. #46 Oklahoma (-3), 10 PM ET, CBSSN.
Arizona State is back from its Hawaii vacation with suntans and a ton of juiced up scoring numbers. The Sun Devils had their top three adjusted efficiency performances in their three contests while playing on the soft Maui rims, and in particular, point guard Moe Odum had more threes (15) than in his other five games combined (12).
As a result, Arizona State's KenPom offensive efficiency jumped up 41 spots in KenPom since before the Maui Invitation, but the flipside of those sweet, soft rims is the defense dropped 63 spots. Is Arizona State really a heavily offensive-skewed team? The jury is still out.
Oklahoma may not be the squad to put that to the test, however. The Sooners have been one of the most offensive-skewed power conference teams in the country this season, highlighted by allowing nearly 1.5 points per possession to Nebraska in a loss last month. Xzayvier Brown and Nijel Pack are an explosive backcourt, but also one that allows 115 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor.
Inevitably, the first team in this game to get stops on a consistent basis will come out victorious. And the loser may be in for a long season of allowing 80+ to their opponents in their respective super-leagues for the next three months. - Matthew Winick
Sunday, December 7
A Game
#37 Missouri vs. #19 Kansas (-3), 1 PM ET, ESPN2.
My beloved alma mater (I went to Mizzou) just dropped a disappointing close one at Notre Dame on Tuesday. Now, the Tigers play their second top 100 opponent of the year (first in the top 65) in Kansas City against their archrival. Kansas is both 1) off a frustrating home loss, and 2) seeking revenge from a defeat at Mizzou last season. I fully expect the Jayhawks to come out with their hair on fire in front of a crowd that likely leans heavily towards KU, despite the “neutral” site.
Without star guard Darryn Peterson, Kansas has struggled to score. Poor Melvin Council is on his third straight season where his starting point guard got hurt, forcing him to handle the ball full-time. Council is serviceable, but the Jayhawks lack perimeter punch unless Elmarko Jackson has another out-of-body experience, as he did against Tennessee in Las Vegas.
The Jayhawks’ hack has been the dual-big lineup with both Flory Bidunga and Bryson Tiller on the floor. These uber-athletic bash brothers have shared the floor for 180 minutes, with KU tallying an offensive rating of 116.8 with them together – helped massively by the duo’s offensive rebounding. Coincidentally, KU has played 180 minutes in all other alignments, posting a much more pedestrian 107.9 offensive rating.
On Mizzou’s side, the Tigers have played an utterly pathetic schedule so far (KenPom’s 362nd-toughest slate) and still have plenty of issues to sort out against top opponents. Mark Mitchell is playing like a star, and Jacob Crews is torching the nets from deep. However, the frontcourt lacks talent beyond Mitchell, and the ball-handling trio of Anthony Robinson, Sebastian Mack and TO Barrett is either too foul-prone (Robinson), too limited offensively (Mack), or both (Barrett).
Two injury notes to monitor: Peterson, KU’s decorated future lottery pick, has been on the cusp of returning from a hamstring issue. If he’s back, he could beat Mizzou’s sloppy switches like a piñata. More under the radar, the absence of Missouri guard Jayden Stone could exacerbate the Tigers’ half court scoring troubles, particularly against KU’s highly athletic and switchable man-to-man. Both of these situations tilt the scales towards the angry Jayhawks. - Jim Root
B Games
#25 LSU (-1) vs. #31 Texas Tech, 3 PM ET, ESPN2.
In a major upset, Texas Tech - preseason AP Top 10 Texas Tech - will enter this game as a small underdog against an LSU team that has soared to 25th in KenPom by way of...uh, going 8-0 against a bunch of bad teams. Their best win right now is an overtime win at Boston College on Wednesday in a game they very well could've lost. Texas Tech at least has a neutral-site win over Wake Forest, though that one was far from impressive.
I guess you can tell I'm selling LSU's odds here, but I don't mind explaining my logic. For one, LSU has benefitted from the most extreme two-way FT% split in the sport - +17.3% - to go with an inexplicable 51% hit rate on midrange twos. This isn't really a roster of otherworldly shooters, so I have doubts that holds.
There are some worrying trends in how Texas Tech has fared against drop coverage (two losses to Illinois and Purdue), but LSU's is lenient to a fault, forcing very few turnovers and allowing a lot of open threes. Their rim rate allowed has stayed solid even versus their three toughest opponents, but this is where I would note that A) none of those opponents had anything approximating JT Toppin and B) I don't love an LSU defense that goes under everything letting a Texas Tech team that loves to shoot threes.
LSU's rim-protection scheme that works to funnel you to the midrange isn't of much note against a Tech team who has yet to care much about rim pressure, though by the same token, a Texas Tech group that funnels the second-most shots to the midrange against an LSU team that really doesn't like taking or making jumpers unless they're from 14 feet could be an issue. You tell me: would you rather pick the team with JT Toppin on it or not? - Will Warren
#57 Creighton at #48 Nebraska (-4), 5 PM ET, FS1.
The visitors have emerged victorious in the last 4 meetings of this heated rivalry, and the Huskers haven't exactly turned the lights out on buy game visitors to PBA this year either. Generally speaking, Nebraska's 5 out hub and spoke offense can really flip Creighton's drop coverage because it occupies the 5 man so effectively away from the rim, and then you have Rienk Mast firing passes like this:
Offensively, Creighton is theoritically designed to exploit the extreme gap help and ball doubles of the Huskers, and Owen Freeman has shown signs of life offensively, albeit against Bittle-less Oregon and Nicholls State (and he's still an a major onus defensively, particularly in this matchup). Would be surprised if the Huskers didn't get it done at PBA against the Jays, which they haven't done since Tim Miles' last season. - Jordan Majewski
#42 SMU (-1) vs. #45 Texas A&M, 5 PM ET, ESPN2.
SMU vs. Texas A&M might be a battle of who can slow the other down. Both the Mustangs (23rd in average possession length) and Aggies (18th in APL) rate among the fastest offenses in the country, but prefer to slow their opponents down towards the national average on the other end.
Diving into the Four Factors statistics for these teams, the balance from both sides stands out immediately:
The only ranking that is not in the upper half of the country is Texas A&M’s effective field goal percentage defense, which is largely due to giving up 37.1% shooting on 3-pointers (305th nationally). Given SMU ranks just 327th in 3-point attempt rate, that lone blemish in the Four Factors between these teams isn’t likely to be as exploitable as it may seem. Texas A&M’s defense hasn’t been elite inside the arc but still ranks near the national average.
Given Texas A&M’s high 3-point attempt rate (23rd nationally), it isn’t a surprise that its efficiency on those shots strongly correlates with performance. The Aggies are 1-2 when held under 35% this season, with the lone win coming by just five at home over Montana. SMU ranks 45th so far in 3-point percentage defense, so whether that sticks or is a product of shooting variance to this point will be critical to find out. - Lukas Harkins
C Games
#34 Saint Mary's (-7) at #132 Davidson, 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
This was a brutal matchup in Moraga for Davidson two years ago, as the McKillop motion typically isn't going to eat up drop space with ball screen and dribble creation. In theory, playing a hub center like Ian Platteeuw could open up the paint against the Gaels
but Randy Bennett doesn't have to respect his shooting, and there's going to be one of the many St. Mary's centers parked in the lane against Davidson's cutters. This was the same issue two years ago with Reed Bailey. The Gaels went an absurd 15-31 from 3 in that game two years ago, but on the road across the country, they're going to rely on their substantial paint advantage, especially if Sean Logan can't go for the Wildcats. This is a very similar game to SMC's season opening matchups against St. Thomas and Chattanooga in terms of how Davidson operates offensively, and the Gaels steamrolled in both of those. The caveat here is that this is SMC's first true road game, and the biggest home game for Davidson in recent memory. - Jordan Majewski
#77 Mississippi State (-4) vs. #104 San Francisco, 4 PM ET, SEC Network.
This is a game I would've put in the B Tier two weeks ago, but the slop-ification of both teams has necessitated a downgrade. Mississippi State is still struggling to find enough stops and enough secondary scoring for Josh Hubbard, while the Dons have lost three in a row, easily the worst of which was to North Alabama at home on Wednesday.
So: both are really, really motivated to get this one, and neither team forces turnovers or rebounds all that well right now. How do you win this game, then? Mississippi State's defensive structure is Illinois or Creighton-like in its inability to force turnovers, but it funnels a lot to the midrange in a similar way and has effectively (if not beautifully) stunted straight-line drives to the rim. My fear for them would then be two-fold: they don't defend true post-ups very well, and inside-out attacks through doubling the post have not worked well for MSU/are a bread-and-butter for USF. "Take a lot of jumpers" can be a good defensive strategy, but I don't know that I love it against a team that will hit those jumpers. - Will Warren
#85 Belmont (-2) at #142 MTSU, 4:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
Great in-state battle here. This doesn't have a cool name like Battle of the Boulevard, but it's a fun test of two items: the power of an elite shooting offense in Belmont versus the inexplicable shot-killing powers of the Murphy Center. You should read this if you haven't, IMO!
MTSU's wonky defense (no jumpers allowed, but everything gets funneled to the rim) is a fun matchup against the usual Belmont motion offense that has shooters everywhere and will work hard to get open. As always at the Glass House, jumpers are an open question, and a Belmont team that wants a ton both ways versus an MTSU one that wants everything to go inside is going to be intriguing. - Will Warren
#89 Georgetown at #23 North Carolina (-12), 5 PM ET, ESPN.
Helping to close out the college basketball weekend is this one, which certainly seemed more fun a couple weeks ago. Georgetown went 0-fer in their MTE, were horrific defensively against UMBC to follow, and have generally been very unimpressive on defense thanks to 1) fouling way too much; 2) having some extreme struggles in P&R defense. Both of these are scary against a UNC side that has been really effective against hard hedges in particular.
Unsurprisingly, for a team whose two best offensive pieces are your starting forwards, UNC's not much for taking a ton of jumpers compared to the average team. Georgetown can try to go with more of a drop coverage here, which could certainly spell death if UNC's hitting shots but can keep them in the game if not. Post doubles also feel like a pretty obvious necessity to me. Julius Halaifonua is not nearly as effective a rim protector as Vince Iwuchukwu is, and with Big Vince out, Ed Cooley has to get creative to stay alive. - Will Warren