Before we dive into the weekend's games, here are yesterday's top performances.
Today's watchability index:
Saturday, November 22
A Game
#93 Minnesota vs. #82 San Francisco (-1), 5:30 PM ET, Peacock.
The Sanford Pentagon is the home to this one. I couldn't get full data for the Pentagon and its previous games, but subjectively, it does feel like a lot of the games at the Pentagon are A) close and B) high-scoring. The last two years have seen 10 games played there at the D1 level; these games have resulted in the teams involved shooting 35.7% from 3 (32.4% at all other neutral venues) and 76.3% from the line (71% all others). There is maybe something to it, as the sightlines behind the baskets are a lot shallower than most arenas.
If so, there's a lot of potential for good shooting in a game where the two teams would be expected to take north of 40% of all field goal attempts from deep, with both also averaging north of 25 free throw attempts a night. Yes, I am telling you that perhaps looking for what some call an 'over' may be wise.
Both teams should be able to exploit the other's weakness, too. I don't love what I've seen from San Francisco so far in giving up cuts from the perimeter to the basket, which is of course a major part of the Minnesota offense:
But by the same token, Minnesota simply doesn't have great physicality in the post, as they've cycled through several different options in the frontcourt and appear to love none of them. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson is a great rebounder but certainly not a shot-blocker, and Robert Vaihola is much the same thing. I worry they could simply get bully-balled by David Fuchs, who's like a microwave scorer but for post-ups.
All in all: great game, and I didn't even touch that much on the shooting...which should be really good. Tune in. - Will Warren
B Games
#89 Penn State vs. #70 Providence (-2), 4 PM ET, TruTV.
Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season, but has far from lived up to that to this point. Looking at Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings with preseason biases removed, Providence has been the conference’s third-worst-performing team this season — even with the league struggling on the whole. The Friars have three wins over sub-250 KenPom opponents but one was by a disappointing margin (dropped 16 spots on KenPom for a 10-point win over Holy Cross), and they lost to both of their high-major opponents.
Most notably, Providence is falling into familiar bad trends defensively; like last season, they are struggling to defend the 3-point line and are not forcing turnovers. Penn State won’t be the easiest opponent to overcome those woes against, either. The Nittany Lions rank sixth nationally in turnover rate, only coughing up 11.0% of possessions through five games, while also ranking 83rd in 3-point percentage (albeit on lower-than-average volume).
Unlike Providence, though, Penn State is yet to play a KenPom top-150 opponent, so this will be a new level of test — especially as the Nittany Lions’ top two scorers so far this season, Kayden Mingo and Melih Tunca, are freshmen. Both rank in the 93rd percentile among guards for FGA% at the rim this season, contributing to Penn State leading the nation in that department. Providence’s defense, meanwhile, is in the 97th percentile for limiting shots at the rim thanks to Oswin Erhunmwunse’s looming presence deterrence, so that will be a battle to watch when PSU has the rock.
On the other end, Providence’s up-tempo offense (15th-fastest average possession length) will be asked to halt by a Penn State defense forcing opponents into the longest average possession length in the country. Providence is posting a .522 eFG% in the final 15 seconds of the shot clock, as opposed to .586 earlier in the clock; Penn State is forcing its opponents to take 54.7% of their shots in the latter half of the shot clock. - Lukas Harkins
D2: #17 Gannon at #22 Findlay (-1), 5 PM ET, Flo Sports.
This is a game you have heard nothing of. I do advise checking it out if you're unlucky enough to be signed up for Flo Sports, America's worst streaming service. Gannon and Findlay both play very fast, but Gannon (under The System disciple Easton Bazzoli) plays at a blistering 91 possessions per game, which is something Division I hoops hasn't seen since mid-2000s VMI.
Both teams have an emerging Guy You Should Know: sophomore forward Alex Kendall for Findlay (a hilarious 13.3 PPG in 17.7 MPG thanks to 80% 2PT) and Pace Prosser of Gannon, who miraculously avoided the transfer portal and has 48 points in his first two games. Above all else, expect fun. And a lot of points. Both of these teams can go pretty far in the D2 NCAA Tournament in March. - Will Warren
Boardwalk Battle Championship: #85 High Point (-10) vs. #198 UIW, 7 PM ET, Baller TV.
High Point's offense is very legit, as they have so many ballhandlers and dynamic wings who can pressure the rim, exploiting whichever matchup is the most exploitable. Rim, catch and shoot, and high shot quality rates are all upper 80s to 90s in terms of percentile ranks, and I noted earlier that Flynn Clayman has altered the defense into an aggressive, high hedge, turnover inducing unit, the opposite of the passive Huss drop coverage. HPU turned UIC over at a 25% rate in the first game of this MTE, with ball swarming all over the court.
Incarnate Word has the 12th lowest turnover rate in the country, thanks to the outstanding on ball play of Tahj Staveski, but UIW's offense is almost strictly created off the dribble, and that lack of ball movement against this defense is concerning.
Shane Heirman has zoned at a high rate against Colorado State and Indiana when he felt his team couldn't defend in man, and High Point's talent level could induce zone from the Cardinals as well. If that's the case, HPU has scored 1.12 PPP in zone offense in a sizeable sample already this season. - Jordan Majewski
C Games
#276 LIU at #11 Illinois (-29), 2 PM ET, BTN+.
LIU isn’t your typical low mid entry, as they have long, rangy athletes 1-5 and really hunt the rim (98th percentile rim rate) off the dribble through multiple hybrid wings. Illinois’ defensive scheme (generally almost always in deep drop with an Ivisic) will allow for a high rate of 1v1 dribble creation, as they’re not willing to help off shooters. The rub is here that LIU doesn’t really have shooters, and currently sport the third lowest 3PT attempt rate in the country with the lowest overall jump shot rate, per Synergy data. That makes LIU’s halfcourt offense a bit of a struggle, and when Fordham and Notre Dame denied transition, the Sharks scored at just .7 PPP in the halfcourt (they do have a contradictory data point in that regard in the altitude of Colorado Springs however). To that end, this is a little like playing a less physical Michigan State for Illinois, who of course the Illini had some issues with last year.
Illinois is one of the elite PNR offenses in the country, with multiple creators, shooters, and screeners. LIU generally plays at the level in ball screen coverage, and will do some perimeter switching given the versatility of their guard/wing corps. It might not be as efficient for Stojakovic to get into his booty ball isos however, given the size and athleticism of LIU’s wings, but realistically the Illini offense should be just fine, and Underwood has really laid the wood in buy games (unless it’s against Oakland’s zone). - Jordan Majewski
#252 North Alabama at #185 Chattanooga (-6), 4:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
North Alabama has looked rudderless offensively as Tony Pujol tries to remake his scheme after the Lions were so reliant on the dribble creation of a departed backcourt last year. The real issue however has been their defense, specifically their PNR defense, which was graded out in just the 10th percentile in efficiency rating thus far. Chattanooga however is a Princeton motion based offense, but Dan Earl has increased his ball screen and PNR rates slightly because of the addition of Teddy Washington, who is most efficient when used out of the ball screen.
UNA has some potentially severe personnel problems ahead of this one, with center Corneilous Williams turning an ankle against Clemson Monday, leaving and only returning in street clothes. Williams owns UNA’s highest overall BPR per EvanMiya data.
Mocs are home for the first time since opening night, but also have injury concerns with Latif Diouf, their best defensive option in the frontcourt (and highest DBPR per EvanMiya), having not suited up the past few games. That said, feels like a game where the Lions can’t really exploit the Mocs’ weaknesses, especially if Williams is out. - Jordan Majewski
#127 UC Santa Barbara at #116 Nevada (-5), 5 PM ET, Mountain West Network.
For an unfamiliar observer viewing both teams in warmups, it would be impossible to tell which of these rosters is a Big West team and which is from the Mountain West. UCSB is loaded with high-level transfers from places like UConn, Vanderbilt and Utah, while Nevada went with more of a moneyball approach, bringing in key new pieces from junior college and NAIA. In fact, the Wolf Pack’s starting center (Joel Armotrading) hails from the Big West.
UCSB has struggled to get stops this year, but that’s largely due to scalding perimeter shooting from opponents (41.3% across three Division I games). Nevada is low on shooting, though, and the visiting Gauchos could see some beneficial regression here.
Via Armotrading and Elijah Price, Nevada as been outstanding on the glass this year, while UCSB has been middling. But the Gauchos have the personnel to battle there, as Hosana Kitenge has been a double-double machine in the past and Colin Smith, Zion Sensley, Evans Kipruto and Michael Simcoe offer depth. Without much of a talent edge for Nevada, this one feels like a true toss-up. - Jim Root
#184 UTRGV at #225 Missouri State (-1), 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
In his second season, Kahil Fennell has UTRGV inside the KenPom top 200. If the Vaqueros remain there, that would be just the second time in the past 24 seasons in which that has happened. He has quickly displayed an ability to get the most out of his teams on both ends of the floor while playing an up-tempo style. Contrast that pace with Cuonzo Martin’s Bears, who typically rank near the bottom of the country in pace (342nd last year).
Missouri State runs everything through 6-4, 280-pound human bowling ball Michael Osei-Bonsu, a skilled scorer on the block who invites contact while also being an outstanding passer. Fennell almost never goes zone, so expect a wide variety of matchups to be thrown at Osei-Bonsu. Filip Brankovic makes the most sense as a stout 265-pounder himself, but Marshal Destremau, Dane Christensen and Kwo Agwa will all get swings, as well.
The Vaqueros, meanwhile, want to run, and if they cannot score in transition, they spread the floor and attempt to get into gaps in the defense. You have to keep Koree Cotton and Always Wright in front, or UTRGV’s cadre of shooters (Christensen, Marvin McGhee, Zae Blake, Kye Dickson) will knock down open shots. - Jim Root
#208 Milwaukee at #94 Wichita State (-12), 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
Wichita State has been one of the steadiest KenPom risers in the country so far this season, not only jumping 36 spots (+6.34 EM change is sixth-largest) since opening day but experiencing a leap after each game. The Shockers won their first three games by an average of 27.0 points before suffering a three-point loss as an eight-point underdog at Boise State in their latest game.
Wichita State now returns home to face a Milwaukee team that is winless in three tries away from home in the early going. Despite Milwaukee’s losses at Wofford, Indiana, and Texas Tech, though, it still has the potential to be dangerous. The Panthers were picked as the Horizon League favorite in the preseason poll, plus have managed to improve on their preseason KenPom ranking amid the losses. Additionally, some of their margins of defeat are inflated. Milwaukee lost by 17 points at Texas Tech in its most recent game, but was within eight of the nationally-ranked opponent with under 10 minutes left.
An area to watch could be Milwaukee’s effectiveness in the mid-range. Wichita State is limiting Rim+3s attempt rates well this season, taking opponents away from the shots they want to take. Milwaukee, though, rates above the national-average for both field goal attempt rate and efficiency from the mid-range. Seth Hubbard and Danilo Jovanovich are particularly high-usage in that area, so they will need to be hot.
On the other end of the floor, Wichita State ranks 17th in offensive rebounding rate this season as opposed to Milwaukee’s No. 299 rating in defensive rebounding rate. The Shockers should thus secure plenty of second-chance opportunities if they miss initial shots; they rate in the 99th percentile in FGA% coming on putbacks so far this season, and are converting at a 75.0% rate. 7-2 Purdue transfer Will Berg is 9-for-12 on putbacks himself. - Lukas Harkins
#92 Northern Iowa (-2) at #131 UC Irvine, 10 PM ET, ESPN+.
Everybody loves the battle of two defenses, I'm sure. The problem will be the two offenses. UCI has looked its usual fantastic self on defense, minus some rebounding issues, but 287th in 3PT/330th in 2PT is perhaps all I need to say about the other end of the court. Northern Iowa, meanwhile, is shooting well yet can't buy a rebound to save its life and has gone 1.02/1.09/1.12 PPP against three very pedestrian defenses after a blistering opener against CSUN.
UCI swallows up attacks to the rim exceptionally well, which could create a real advantage for them. UNI doesn't do rim attacks in the traditional downhill sense, instead using drives to the basket to open up kickout threes. UCI plays these straight up and almost never overhelps, which could bog down the UNI offense and force a lot of long, slow possessions. I'm also not huge on a post-first, big-first offense going up against a UCI team whose one thing they do best is beat other bigs. This could go UNI's way easy, but on face value, it seems like a great get-right game for the Anteaters. - Will Warren
Sunday, November 23
The A+ Game of the Weekend
Charleston Classic Palmetto Bracket Championship: #38 Georgia vs. #27 Clemson (-1), 1 PM ET, ESPN.
I thought Xavier might be the team to finally put somewhat of a governor on Georgia’s newfound insane pace, and while the Bulldogs were held to their slowest pace of the young season, they still tallied 21 transition possessions, just slightly below their season average. The Bulldog offense was seriously slowed by Xavier’s zone (.68 PPP in 21 zone offense possessions), which allowed the Muskies to almost steal this spot in the title game, as it held UGA to their lowest rim rate and total of the season.
Clemson snuck by West Virginia to get here, winning a game that I mostly felt like they didn’t have much business winning. However, if there’s a defense that can force Georgia into primarily halfcourt execution, it’s the Tigers. Clemson’s defense is forcing opposing offenses to operate with the third longest average possession length with a 99th percentile last 4 second rate forced.
Can Georgia’s robust press rate speed up the Tigers? Clemson hasn’t seen much extended ball pressure yet this year, but their offense has had the ball stolen from them at the 3rd lowest rate in the country to date. That low turnover rate is part of the explanation to why Clemson has fared well in MTEs the last few seasons, as they bring a very sturdy floor to every game. They don’t make mistakes (especially self-inflicted), they force halfcourt execution, rebound well, and deny the rim. That’s generally a winning combo in these back to backs, but I will say the offensive ceiling of this Clemson team looks pretty low. That said, this is the first “is this real” test for the new Mike White press and run system at Georgia, and I would be inclined towards Clemson, despite my misgivings about their offense. - Jordan Majewski
A Game
#53 George Washington (-5) vs. #96 McNeese State, 5 PM ET, Flo Sports.
Early on this season, George Washington has made it a point to avoid any chances of being included in Jon Rothstein's Epitome of Brutality. The Revs have won their four matchups against true mid-major competition by 30 points per game, and took down formidable foe South Florida in a tense neutral site game. The result? A KenPom ranking that has soared all the way to No. 52, top mark in the A-10.
McNeese State only has two games under its belt, a 12-point loss at Santa Clara in a really tough travel spot, and pure domination against rival Louisiana, a 36-point game with under five to play before a late Louisiana run.
Don't get it twisted, these are two of the ten best mid-major teams in the country. McNeese has truly elite athleticism, return the Southland player of the year in Javohn Garcia, and have a blossoming superstar with Creighton transfer Larry Johnson. George Washington's inside out game with a plethora of capable shooters surrounding star big man Rafael Castro is both balanced and electric.
If the Revs win this neutral site game in the Cayman Islands, it will be because they won the 3-point line and the rebounding battle. If the Cowboys pull off the slight upset, it will be due to swarming defense and a physical, downhill offensive attack. - Matthew Winick
B Games
#55 Butler vs. #35 Virginia (-2), 2 PM ET, CBSSN.
The matchup was already set regardless of opening-day results, but Butler/Virginia marks essentially the championship game of the Greenbrier Tip-Off. First, Butler defeated South Carolina in an eight-point wire-to-wire victory; the Bulldogs were more aggressive downhill than the Gamecocks while only making two fewer 3s on 14 fewer attempts. Virginia did not control its matchup with Northwestern as soundly, trailing for over the half the (free-throw) contest, but survived 37.5% shooting thanks to a resounding .525 OR%.
Stylistically, Butler (23rd in average possession length) wants to play at a faster pace than any of Virginia’s opponents yet this season. The Bulldogs might need to apply that pressure offensively as well, as scoring on the Cavaliers in the halfcourt is difficult. Virginia does a great job running opponents off the 3-point line and funneling them into its shot-blocking platoon of Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso. How Butler guards Jalen Jackson and Finley Bizjack push their team in transition and finish around the giants will be pivotal.
On the other end, Virginia is one of only 11 teams ranking in the top 100 for each of the Four Factors statistics offensively. It will take a team effort for Butler to slow down the Cavaliers, but nose-for-the-ball senior forward Michael Ajayi could be most important. Given Virginia’s domination on the offensive boards (2nd in OR%), Butler might need Ajayi to post a sixth double-double in six games while also taking on the hefty defensive assignment of slowing down Thijs De Ridder. The 6-9 De Ridder is averaging 19.0 points and 6.4 rebounds this season, though he has fouled out in 30 minutes or less in both of his last two games.
Fouling has plagued more than just De Ridder for Virginia, though. The Cavaliers rank just 208th in FTA/FGA allowed this season while Butler is 27th in FTA/FGA created. If that continues, the Bulldogs will need to be better than the 65.4% they are shooting from the foul line so far this year (305th nationally). - Lukas Harkins
Charleston Classic Lowcountry Bracket Final: #39 Utah State (-8) vs. #110 Davidson, 9 PM ET, ESPN2.
It’s not November until Utah State wins an MTE title. The Aggies seem to claim one of these tourneys every OOC season, as their constantly screening and movement based offense is hard to matchup up with on quick turnarounds, and that’s now compounded by Jerrod Calhoun’s matchup zone on the other end. USU dominated Tulane’s tricky zone with 69% 2PT shooting and 12-23 3PT shooting, blowing out the Green Wave in the second half despite 15-30 shooting from 3 over USU’s own zone.
Davidson made it to the Lowcountry bracket final by beating hapless BC in a 58 possession grinder. Davidson didn’t shoot it well, going 5-20 from 3, but BC was even worse, and trying to bludgeon the Wildcats with two bigs on the floor at all times killed their driving lanes and made it difficult to matchup with Davidson’s motion on the other end.
Davidson’s hub passing (Ian Platteeuw’s offensive upside is immense, but he’s a defensive liability) and orbiting motion makes them a difficult zone candidate, and they actually matchup better against USU’s defense than they did BC, but USU has major matchup advantages across their backcourt/wings (and Garry Clark for that matter, doubly so if Sean Logan is on a minutes restriction). Davidson’s defense has also enjoyed some sizeable jump shot luck, with opponents shooting just 23% from 3 to date- USU can quickly coax that regression. - Jordan Majewski
C Games
#205 Lamar at #142 Montana (-6), 4 PM ET, ESPN+.
Hope you like downhill basketball. Lamar gets more points from twos than all but 12 teams in the sport, and Montana sits 30th in terms of highest percentage of twos allowed as overall points. I don't think perimeter shooting will be a terribly huge factor in this one, so get ready for two things: a lot of action in the midrange and a lot of driving lanes being attacked from start to finish.
Lamar's actually been very similar to UCI in that they prefer to handle guard attacks straight-up, rarely overhelping. You can see this in their defensive chart at Hoop-Explorer, which certainly implies a team confident in their ability to go 1-on-1 defensively with perimeter players:
That's plausibly a problem for a Montana offense that runs everything, and I mean everything, through its cadre of guards (Money Williams, Tyler Isaak, Brooklyn Hicks being the Big Three). If Lamar is able to limit Montana in transition while successfully handling these guards 1-on-1 without a help man in the half-court, there's a good path here to what would be a pretty huge road win. Lamar's last road win over a top-150 non-conference opponent: November 10, 2017 at #110 Tulsa. - Will Warren
#180 Queens at #182 Furman (-3), 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
Only 6 teams currently have a higher offensive turnover rate than Furman. The good news for the Paladins is that Queens is currently 342nd in steal rate, per KenPom. The turnover issue for the Dins is so unbelievably undermining because they're still creating a high rate of high quality shots in their games vs D1 opponents, and they sport a 96th percentile catch and shoot rate, typical of a Bob Richey spread motion offense. Unfortunately they're scoring in just the 1st percentile on those catch and shoots, which naturally screams positive regression, and per Synergy data, they're underperforming by .34 PPP on such shots (.38 PPP under expectation on unguarded catch and shoots as well).
Queens meanwhile is an incredibly unique lineup for an ASUN team, as Grant Leonard's squad is truly positionless, using long, nontraditional ballhandling wings like Yoav Berman, Jordan Watford, and Nasir Mann in ball screens/booty ball to hunt mismatches in an efficient and prolific drive and kick offense.
Furman has struggled in ball screen defense (15th percentile), but it has to be noted that the Paladins are running out a massive lineup, and are actually the 3rd biggest team in the country per KenPom height data. - Jordan Majewski
#90 South Carolina vs. #46 Northwestern (-5), 5 PM ET, CBSSN.
Well, does South Carolina have anyone on its roster that can contain Nick Martinelli? If not, this will be the usual 40-minute slow bludgeon that Northwestern seems to be routinely capable of where they never look very good but end up winning by 11. If one of South Carolina's 37 frontcourt options is able to hang here, this will be an interesting game with an outside chance at an upset.
To me, this is a really bad look for me when you're four games in, nearly lost at home to Southern Miss, and have given up 0.95 PPP or higher three times to sub-250 teams.
That's a team and roster that has no idea what combinations work or where to even begin and is simply hoping to achieve good results by committee. I don't like what I see here at all, which is bad when the opponent has Nick Martinelli and Arrinten Page, two guys who look more than ready to be All-Big Ten level players for a full season. A slow bludgeon is possible, particularly when South Carolina has fouled a lot against bad competition and has been just-okay at defending much worse post players. - Will Warren
#339 IU Indy at #305 Air Force (-6), 5 PM ET, Mountain West Network.
Only IU Indy can score 80 points, hit 18 threes, and still lose by over 20 points, but that's exactly what happened in Friday's 101-80 loss for the Jaguars. When Ben Howlett's extreme pressing and transition scheme works, it can hang with Ohio State or knock off Eastern Michigan on the road. When it doesn't, back-to-back double digit losses to Charleston Southern and Alabama State occur.
The game with Air Force is particularly fascinating. IU Indy is No. 1 by far in KenPom's adjusted tempo, and all of their games have been at least 79 possessions. Air Force is 340th in tempo, and they've topped 70 possessions once all year. The Falcons are also bottom-20 nationally in offensive turnover rate, a death sentence against IU Indy's constant pressure.
If you were ever curious what would happen if the Tortoise and the Hare raced in real life, it would probably be answered while watching this game. If Air Force has any success at slowing down the historically fast Jaguars, they could pull off their third straight victory after a painful start to the year. And IU Indy needs a fantastic night in the turnover battle to finally get back to its winning ways.
Either way, you very likely will never see a game all season with two teams that have two more opposite philosophies than this one. At its core: this is what makes college basketball beautiful. - Matthew Winick
Middle Tennessee vs. Murray State, 7:30 PM ET, Flo Sports.
Murray State’s ridiculous wealth of size, depth and athleticism has been a handful for mid-major opponents this year. The Racers overwhelmed Omaha on opening night, 85-77, and since have beaten MVSU by 48, Nicholls by 20 and Little Rock by 21. Heck, they even gave SMU a serious run on the road, trailing by six with just two minutes to play.
The versatile frontcourt trio of Mason Miller, Roman Domon and JJ Traynor gives new coach Ryan Miller a ton of lineup flexibility, and the backcourt is flush with shot making and playmaking. That does not even mention the P5 center platoon of Fred King (Creighton) and Dylan Anderson (Arizona/Boise St.), a towering twosome that has crushed the glass.
Coach Miller has weaponized his overflowing roster by playing fast and pressuring, speeding up the game and maximizing possession count against teams with inferior talent.
Midde Tennessee, meanwhile, has been decent in its two Division I games: a win at an improved Evansville squad, and a strong first half at Michigan on Wednesday (we’ll forgive the second half demolition). Nick McDevitt’s is accustomed to battling size after that matchup, but their poor interior defense (59.8% allowed on 2s, 324th) has been propped up by tremendous 3P luck (20.3% allowed, 3rd). I’d expect the Racers to overwhelm the Blue Raiders here as the game wears on. - Jim Root
