Week 18 Watchlist: MARCH

The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

I mean, do you need more info? It's March.

Onto the Watchlist.

• A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
• B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
• C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
• We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. No women's games this week, as most marquee NCAAW conferences are starting up conference tournament play. I'll mention those in here each day they're happening.

Monday, March 2

The A+ Game of the Week

#8 Iowa State at #3 Arizona (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPN. I look for edges anywhere I can in these games, and it's so much fun when the A+ Game of the Week is 1) this game and 2) can end the Big 12 title race a game early in favor of a special Arizona team having a special season. So! Here are all of the stats Will Warren would be looking for in a game like this one.

1. Is Road Iowa State or Home Arizona more frightening for officials? This sounds like a dumb proposition, because in my head and in your head, we both think there's nothing scarier than Hilton Iowa State. Away from home, this Iowa State team has still been really good. Adjusted for schedule and some 3PT% luck, ISU sustains a top-20 offense and defense to go with top-10 overall play. Arizona, meanwhile, plays the exact same regardless of venue. I care about these things because of Big 12 officiating, which has statistically been the conference with the highest home-court advantage by way of foul count over the last five years. Arizona's had just six games all season without winning the free throw attempt battle.
2. Are turnovers a factor? This is a very simple question for Iowa State in particular. They're 4-4 in games where they've generated 15 or fewer points against top-100 competition (12-1 when they go for 16+). They're also 5-4 when they give up 13+ points off turnovers in these games. Neither of these teams have much of a turnover problem, but I will note this: three of Arizona's five worst games in terms of turnovers against top-100 competition have come in the last three weeks (Kansas, BYU, Baylor).
3. ...What if Iowa State hits threes? I mean, what if? They're a perfect 10-0 when making ten or more threes, which sounds nice until I tell you they've done this once since February 1. Only five times this year has Arizona allowed ten or more threes, though Texas Tech was responsible for one of these on Valentine's Day.

A Game

#1 Duke (-9) at #31 NC State, 7 PM ET, ESPN. I would argue that even with losing out, Duke has probably wrapped up a 1 seed, alongside Michigan and possibly alongside Arizona. I don't think they should test that theory, but it's probably true. NC State, meanwhile, would be a 10 seed if the committee follows WAB the way they're implying they will.

As a mere curiosity, I did look into various home/away splits involving this game. Duke is roughly as good anywhere they play, and some bad news for NC State comes with the note Duke actually shoots better from two away from home (59.2% versus 58.7%). NC State is 5-9 this year when opponents shoot 53% or better from two. Can the Wolfpack deliver what would have to be their best 40-minute defensive effort of the year? I'm doubtful, but they've been slightly better at home on both ends of the court. There's also some plausible shooting regression at play here (Duke +12% from 3 over last 8 games, NCSU -1%), which could affect things, but ultimately one of these teams is physical and the other isn't.

B Game

#69 McNeese (-10) at #240 Nicholls, 7:30 PM ET, CBSSN. It's unfortunate, but also life that only one of McNeese or Stephen F. Austin can make the NCAA Tournament. Or, God forbid, neither. This is mostly an exhibition game pre-Southland but considering McNeese sits 54th in WAB, which is...within range, we'll call it, they could use a win here.

C Game

Horizon League Play-in: #312 IU Indy at #321 Cleveland State (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the first conference tournament game of 2026, and therefore, it will be mentioned here. Is it any good? No, but it is here and it exists.

Tuesday, March 3

NCAAM: Sun Belt first round.

NCAAW: ASUN first round, Sun Belt first round.

A Game

None. Okay, fine:

#15 Alabama (-1) at #33 Georgia, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN News. This is a game between two teams I am very confident will do next to nothing in the NCAA Tournament (a lot of people LOVE this Alabama team, which is fine, but let me know the last time you saw them rebound well), but considering both of these teams could easily top 90+ and even 100+ in regulation, it's getting elevated to the top of the pile amongst a lot of very similar games.

B Games

#36 Clemson at #28 North Carolina (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Clemson probably locked themselves into the field by beating Louisville on Saturday, which was a good result against a good team. This, however, would do the task of elevating them out of 8/9 game territory and into something more advantageous for them long term. Can't say I love the odds, but Clemson has beaten UNC twice in a row despite most of the Hubert-era games being higher-scoring.

#25 Kentucky at #38 Texas A&M (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Kentucky is firmly locked in the field and has somewhat surprisingly risen to 6-seed territory. By WAB, this is actually a true 6 seed vs. an 11 seed game, so never say the SEC didn't provide you a Round of 64 12:15 PM ET tipoff a couple of weeks early. Road Kentucky is an extremely volatile product so I have no interest in declaring a side here, particularly when eight (!) of UK's last 10 SEC road games under Pope have been decided by single digits.

#23 BYU (-1) at #44 Cincinnati, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I would argue we're closing in on BYU being in a near-ideal scenario for their current build. If they end up a 7 seed by losing this game and one more, that's incredible news for a team that would enter the 7/10 and likely 2/7 games with possibly the two best players on the court. You have to deal with the rest of BYU's roster, but hey, interesting proposition. Cincinnati remains a curiosity at best for me, and considering even the fans don't seem thrilled with the concept of a Wes Miller return it's hard for me to get too jacked up.

#11 Nebraska (-3) at #41 UCLA, 11 PM ET, FS1. I think one more win for UCLA should do it, in regards to them making the NCAA Tournament. This would emphatically do it. Do I want that? I'm not really sure, but March Mick can't be less entertaining than January and February Mick. I'm also here to merely note one single item: the only Big Ten top half teams to bat 1.000 on the West Coast are Michigan (is Michigan) and Michigan State (got Washington and Oregon instead of USC/UCLA). Everyone else has lost at least once.

C Games

#18 Tennessee (-9) at #94 South Carolina, 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Tennessee now faces a slight uphill battle to get a 5 seed, though I'll admit some optimism. For one, Tennessee could earn a pure tiebreaker over a fellow foe for the 5 line on Saturday if they sweep Vanderbilt. I'm going to hold off on pure optimism until I'm fully aware of Nate Ament's status, and frankly the Tennessee fanbase makes it incredibly hard to desire any optimism for Tennessee. Boy, I wonder why I do this now instead.

#221 UMBC (-5) at #327 NJIT, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. An exceptionally bizarre year for the AmEast has led to Champion UMBC, Potential Second-Place NJIT, and Seventh-Place Bryant. (Okay, the last was guessable based on their hire.) But if NJIT wins and Albany loses, they're #2 in the AmEast Tourney. Fun! In the likelier event of that not happening, third is still good.

#49 TCU at #13 Texas Tech (-12), 7 PM ET, FS1. TCU's chase for the First Four hits a major bump here, but as usual, I offer good news for the underdogs. TCU is 2-2 against Texas Tech in the McCasland era, has covered three of four times, and has kept the last couple of games pretty low-scoring. Fortunately for TCU, this particular version of the Horned Frogs is much better against backcourts that cough the ball up, and this is a Tech team with a -4.5 turnover margin per 100 across their last 10 games. I can envision the path.

#145 Toledo at #87 Miami (OH) (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Miami Yes That Miami has but two more games to go to complete the unthinkable. Of the two remaining foes, Ohio has been less kind to the RedHawks than Toledo, and in the first matchup Miami led by as much as 28 on the road.

#107 George Mason at #45 VCU (-11), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Primarily for A-10 Tournament positioning, as Mason still has an outside shot at a top-four finish with some help. I'd prefer to use this time to talk about At-Large VCU. At the time of writing, the Rams are 46th in WAB (ahead of Indiana, Auburn, USC, and San Diego State). They're 0-5 in Q1, but Quadrants really should be meaningless, and we gave a team with a 1-11 Q1 record an at-large in 2025 anyway. If they win out, they project to jump to 41st, which is ahead of all of SMU, Texas A&M, Ohio State, and New Mexico. The top 42 teams in WAB all made the field last year above the at-large cutline, by the way. Are you 100% sure the Rams shouldn't be in?

#220 Drexel at #92 Hofstra (-10), 7 PM ET, Flo Sports. Moderate impact here: if Drexel wins, they can finish as high as fourth in the CAA standings. Hofstra is locked into third. Probably of greater note: the last five games in this series have had alternating results, which would mean we're due for a Hofstra win.

#16 Kansas (-7) at #66 Arizona State, 9 PM ET, FS1. Home Arizona State remains a bad basketball team, just as they were the entire Bobby Hurley tenure, and thankfully, it will all be over soon. However...they did defeat Texas Tech at home two weeks back. They kept it tight with Arizona and Gonzaga for long periods. I guess I won't be shocked if they do something weird here.

#42 San Diego State at #60 Boise State (-1), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. San Diego State, now 53rd in WAB, needs every single win they can humanly find between now and Selection Sunday. I'd argue that for the MWC, the best-case scenario is SDSU winning the MWC Tournament over New Mexico as Utah State bows out in the semis. That should get you three bids.

#26 Utah State (-10) at #120 UNLV, 11 PM ET, CBSSN. Speaking of which...it'll depend on seeding, as always, but this Utah State team is saltier for March purposes than the USUs I'm used to. They're deceptively good at two-way shot volume production and are much improved in terms of rim protection. The concept of Sweet Sixteen Aggies is nothing outlandish with the right draw (i.e., avoiding a 1 seed).

Wednesday, March 4

NCAAM: ASUN first round, Horizon League first round, OVC first round, Summit League first round, Sun Belt second round.

NCAAW: SEC first round, ACC first round, Big 12 first round, Big Ten first round, Atlantic 10 first round, OVC first round, Horizon League first round, Big South first round, Sun Belt second round.

A Game

#32 Miami (FL) at #39 SMU (-2), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. There's some grade inflation at hand here, but this is a very important game for Selection Sunday. SMU's inability to simply beat good basketball teams now has them down to 42nd in WAB at the time of writing. They're in much more serious March trouble than I'm seeing many admit, and this is before playing a Miami team that has the frontcourt to exploit a fairly soft SMU interior. However, I'll politely say I remain unconvinced by the Miami backcourt, and an SMU team that forces a ton of kickout threes against a Miami team without great shooting is an interesting matchup.

B Game

#29 Texas at #20 Arkansas (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This old-school rivalry still makes their Coca-Cola the old fashioned way, or something like that. Arkansas is among a number of SEC teams that could end up anywhere from a 4-6 seed, while Texas is, again, on the list of schools that could probably use one more win to feel safe about making the future Tournament. Of note: this is at Bud Walton Arena, a venue where Arkansas has played like a top-5 team in the sport this year.

C Games

#64 Minnesota at #43 Indiana (-6), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Non-Barn Minnesota: 2-11, 86th at Torvik. Barn Minnesota: 12-4, 41st at Torvik. There is your indication for level of investment in this affair.

#132 Saint Joseph's at #106 Davidson (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is on here as an excuse to talk St. Joe's, which has genuinely overachieved under possible permanent HC Steve Donahue. Since moving Austin Williford to the starting lineup after a loss to VCU on MLK Day, the Hawks are a top-60 team in the sport with a top-15 defense. I'd normally point to some shooting unsustainability, but even their 20th-best 3PT% allowed is backed up by the 13th-best 2PT% allowed. They're simply really good on the defensive end. Watch out for them in the conference tournament.

#35 Villanova (-5) at #95 DePaul, 8 PM ET, Peacock. It's true: with one more win, DePaul locks in their best season in 20 years. Chris Holtmann is a miracle worker. Also true: a DePaul win locks them into no worse than a sixth-place finish in the Big East. I'm going to charitably call that top half, which would make this DePaul's first top-half Big East finish IN PROGRAM HISTORY. Even in 2006-07, they were 9th in a 16-team league. Don't care if sixth isn't "top half." You don't come here for facts.

#7 Purdue (-9) at #68 Northwestern, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. There was a specific moment during Purdue's loss to Ohio State Sunday where I think I figured something out:

This was immediately following a turnover on a somewhat wayward pass by Omer Mayer to Braden Smith. The turnover is correctly credited to Mayer. What you're seeing here is Smith turning and yelling at his freshman teammate. Now, without video, you may think this was a pass directly to the defender. Not quite. This is where the pass touched Smith's hands.

Not a great pass, certainly, but that's a full mitt on it. The responsibility is nearly as much Smith's as it is Mayer's. Yet, immediately following this pass, Smith begins yelling at Mayer and waving his hands at him in the middle of the play, which became a transition layup for Ohio State. This is not the lone reason Purdue lost, and it's not the lone reason why Purdue is only going to be a 3 seed, which is still a good year. It just feels telling for why they can't level up: senior leader Braden Smith doesn't seem to like any of his younger teammates. I wonder if they'd say the same.

#51 Baylor at #6 Houston (-14), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Houston...hmmm. On one hand, sure, lost three in a row, tears in my eyes etc etc. On the other, since the calendar flipped to 2026, this is the third-best team in America with a top-10 offense and defense, including a +7.8 turnover margin per 100 and +5.3 on the boards. If you wanna freak out about three losses to three top-15 teams, be my guest, but I'm not gonna join you.

#86 Colorado State at #46 New Mexico (-9), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. I've really loved this New Mexico team, but it is pretty funny that they've been able to escape the Non-Conference Colorado State Charges that are hiding under the surface. Since conference play began they're +11% from 3.

#67 USC at #54 Washington (-4), 10:30 PM ET, BTN. If you are reading this, please come to our Discord and tag me with this exact phrase: "CBM 🙏". We will raise a glass in remembrance and solidarity for our dearly departed LinkedIn soldier.

Thursday, March 5

NCAAM: Patriot League quarterfinals, Summit League quarterfinals (first half), OVC quarterfinals, MVC first round, WCC first round, Sun Belt third round.

NCAAW: MAAC first round, WCC first round, SEC second round, Atlantic 10 second round, ACC second round, Big 12 second round, Big Ten second round, Sun Belt third round, SoCon quarterfinals, Big South quarterfinals, ASUN quarterfinals, Summit League quarterfinals, SoCon quarterfinals, OVC quarterfinals, America East quarterfinals.

A Game

#2 Michigan (-8) at #24 Iowa, 8 PM ET, Peacock. This will be one of two things.

1. A 40-minute celebration of one of the greatest regular seasons by a high-major in ages. Michigan's Sunday battle with Michigan State is more pure hate, plus Senior Day. This is just a good game and an excuse to tip hats. Michigan has put together as dominant a start-to-finish season as we've seen in a long time. The Wolverines have two losses: one to their fellow top-end title contender on a neutral court by five points, and one to a Wisconsin team that made 15 threes and played essentially a perfect offensive game. They have beaten #5, #7, #9, #11, and #12 in KenPom by a combined 80 points, four of those wins away from home. While the Portal Era may bring more collections of talent like it, we may not see such efficient demolitions and usage/fit of talent as this amongst teams without multiple elite recruits.
2. One of the funniest results of the entire season. If Iowa wins this, it genuinely will be like when Iowa football defeats a top-5 opponent by punting 12 times, forcing three fumbles, and winning 13-12 despite never gaining an offensive yard. Against top-50 competition this season, Iowa has not been bad whatsoever, playing like roughly the 23rd-best team in the country and going 5-7. Their average game against top-50 teams goes for just 63 possessions, and at home, these games have run just barely over 60 possessions. The Iowa path looks much like it does in other versions of their home games against top-end teams: zero transition play, tons of action run through Bennett Stirtz/Tavion Banks, a deceptively good edge on the boards, and finding a way to hold Michigan under 65. That last point has only happened once all year, but again, I must remind you this is the same Michigan team that did scrap it up with TCU on the road in a 67-63 win.

B Game

None.

C Games

#199 Howard (-4) at #313 Norfolk State, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I wasn't sure if this would be on a network or not, but thankfully, it will be. Howard can clinch the MEAC title with a 2-0 week, but perhaps more important is Norfolk's game against Morgan State on Monday. Beat Morgan State and the title is instantly Howard's thanks to owning the tiebreaker of sweeping North Carolina Central.

#246 Louisiana Tech at #111 Liberty (-10), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Got excited and put this on here because I thought it was Liberty's Senior Day, which is cool to me because they'll have three four-year starters being honored. Instead, just a game against a disappointing Louisiana Tech team, but here it is.

#52 South Florida (-5) at #130 Memphis, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I have this on here for one reason: it is Memphis's final home game of the year. Is it Penny Hardaway's final home game as Memphis's head coach? I do not believe it will be, per what our staff has heard internally, but you never know.

Friday, March 6

NCAAM: CAA first round, SoCon first round, WCC second round, Sun Belt fourth round, ASUN quarterfinals, Big South quarterfinals, MVC quarterfinals, MAAC quarterfinals, other half of Summit League quarterfinals, and the OVC semifinals.

NCAAW: Big East first round, West Coast second round, Sun Belt fourth round, ACC quarterfinals, Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, SEC quarterfinals, Big Ten quarterfinals, Big 12 quarterfinals, MAAC quarterfinals, Summit League quarterfinals.

A Game

#87 Miami (OH) (-7) at #227 Ohio, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. If Miami survives Toledo earlier in the week, this should be moved to ABC. I am deadly serious. Americans, supposedly, love when people pull themselves up by their bootstraps and whatnot. How about the single best underdog story of the season, complete with a potential 31-0 finish? I do not care what else is on at this time, nor should anyone, but for my hypothetical to matter they must defeat Toledo first. Best of luck, RedHawks.

B Games

#45 VCU (-1) at #75 Dayton, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Part two of a must-2-0 week for VCU here. Regardless of the head coach, this has been VCU's rivalry for some time now, as they've won nine of the last 13 and are an incredible 4-1 at UD Arena post-COVID. Dayton can do whatever they have to do in the A10 Tournament, but for the conference's sake, VCU needs to win this game. This will mean nothing to the A10, which loves nothing more than self-cannabilization.

#21 St. John's (-3) at #53 Seton Hall, 9 PM ET, FS1. I can't picture a world where Seton Hall gets in without at least winning out in the regular season, which would necessitate an upset here. They have a 20% chance of getting it done, per KenPom...but the only Big East teams they've beaten inside the KenPom top 75 are all named Providence. Against the league's top three: 0-5.

C Game

#48 UCF at #59 West Virginia (-2), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. I am begging you to PLEASE watch a conference tournament game instead of this, unless you are a fan of either team. UCF's results are starting to catch up to their metrics, which could mean a slide out of the 8/9 game entirely if they're not careful.