The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

We're now just under four weeks from Selection Sunday, which means two things to me:

  1. You need to hear our bracketology podcast with some brilliant people.
  2. It's going to be nut-cutting time for the next four weeks for a large swath of teams.

Okay, it means a third thing to me, which is joy and happiness, but that was a given. We know the general cutline for Wins Above Bubble is 45th. I thought it might be educational to use our friend Chris Gallo's site, WAB Watch, and show you the most pivotal game remaining for teams surrounding this cutline, i.e. ranked 36th-55th. If you can win this one game, you can change your entire resume and your season as a whole.

  • #36 Santa Clara: at Saint Mary's, February 25 (worth +0.74 WAB). Santa Clara is in a much better position than anyone seems to think. I haven't seen a single soul note that, despite their loss to Gonzaga, they're squarely on the 9/10 seed lines via WAB, which the committee devoted itself to last year stronger than any other metric. I don't think you need to know WAB that well to know that sweeping SMC would give the Broncos the biggest leg up possible.
  • #37 NC State: at Virginia, February 24 and vs. Duke, March 2 (+0.82 WAB/+0.74 WAB). NC State will not be short for opportunities to lock in their bid the rest of the way. Split these games and I'd imagine you'll feel just fine.
  • #38 UCLA: at Michigan State, February 17 and vs. Illinois, February 21 (+0.83/+0.73 WAB). Per Chris's site, no team on the bubble has more opportunities remaining than UCLA. Five of their six games are worth +0.56 WAB or more. If Mick Cronin's crew somehow went 5-1, they'd rise all the way to a 6 seed.
  • #39 Indiana: at Purdue, February 20 (+0.9 WAB). Covered below. Honorable mentions to Michigan State (March 1) and at Ohio State (March 7). Indiana has more chances than most.
  • #40 Auburn: at Alabama, March 7 (+0.82 WAB). Auburn has a different path to making March: pile up some wins. If Auburn goes 4-2 down the stretch, they'd still add enough WAB to stay on the 10 line. The problem is that none of those would be marquee victories, really, unless they win the IBOB.
  • #41 SMU: vs. Louisville, Tuesday (+0.61 WAB). Suffice it to say: this Louisville game is the biggest of Andy Enfield's tenure to date. Win it and you're probably in, barring a pair of shock losses. Or an 0-2 California trip next week.
  • #42 San Diego State: at New Mexico, February 28 (+0.67 WAB). This, along with the Boise State road game a few days later, are worth more to SDSU's bottom line than beating Utah State at home next Wednesday. That's the power of home-court, people.
  • #43 Georgia: at Vanderbilt, February 25 (+0.87 WAB). Mike White doesn't win these games, so let's scale back our goals a little. If Georgia can go 4-2 over their final six, which would include three Q1/Q2 wins, I think that's probably enough to make them feel safe on Selection Sunday.
  • #44 New Mexico: at Utah State, March 7 (+0.76 WAB). That San Diego State home game on the 28th is only third behind a road game at Nevada (technically Q1), but vibes-wise, the SDSU home game is the game.
  • #45 Missouri: vs. Vanderbilt, Wednesday and at Arkansas, Saturday (+0.64/+0.81 WAB). I have a very simple, very easy to understand mission for Mizzou: just go 1-1. That's all you have to do. Go 1-1. Actually, just go 3-3. I can't believe we're going to reward that, but statistically, it looks like 3-3 would keep you above water.
  • #46 Ohio State: at Michigan State, February 22 and vs. Purdue, March 1 (+0.83/+0.72 WAB). The Iowa road game on the 25th is actually worth more than the Purdue game, but I'm going to make a couple of bets: that Purdue continues to rise in the metrics, and that simply adding "beat Purdue" to the resume will affect the committee a tad more. In true Jake Diebler fashion, they will likely find a way to lose these two games by a combined five points.
  • #47 Texas A&M: at Arkansas, February 25 (+0.82 WAB). Noticing anything? February 25 looks like a huge day for teams attempting to make the NCAA Tournament. This is especially huge for TAMU: no other game on their schedule is north of +0.58 WAB, and some of their biggest wins (road Auburn, road Georgia, even road Pitt) are diminishing in value fast. This would instantly stop the bleeding.
  • #48 Liberty: at Kennesaw State, February 26 (+0.22 WAB). We've barely talked about Liberty at all this year, which is likely my fault. I'm just not a fan of the school and what the school does. I am a fan of Ritchie McKay, however, a wonderful human. Liberty does at least own a road win over Dayton. If they finish the regular season 28-3...I mean, maybe?
  • #49 Belmont: at Illinois State, March 1 (+0.41 WAB). Belmont, even if they can run the table in the regular season, probably doesn't have enough to make the field as an at-large at 27-4. Three Q3 losses are a tough sell. But...I mean, a +1.1 WAB in an average season gets you on the 11 line. I'm aware that yesterday's price is not today's price, but can we at least agree we'd rather see 29-5 Belmont in the NCAA Tournament instead of 20-13 TCU?
  • #50 Texas: four different games (a collective +2.96 WAB). All of road Georgia on the 21st (+0.65), home Florida on the 25th (+0.76), at TAMU on the 28th (+0.74), and at Arkansas on March 4 (+0.82) are gigantic to the bottom line. If you lose all four, your season is over.
  • #51 Seton Hall: at UConn, February 28 (+0.89 WAB). Highly doubtful. If Seton Hall can manage to go 4-1 down the stretch, they would likely be okay heading into the Big East Tournament.
  • #52 VCU: at Saint Louis, Friday (+0.8 WAB). Well, obviously. But if you can go 4-1 even with losing this game, you're in First Four territory.
  • #53 TCU: at Texas Tech, March 3 (+0.86 WAB). A more attainable goal is their road game at UCF Tuesday (+0.58). However, given what we know about TCU, they'll beat Texas Tech but lose first at home to West Virginia this Saturday.
  • #54 California: at Wake Forest, March 7 (+0.53 WAB). The Golden Bears can get there on volume alone. None of the individual games left are really impactful - Wake is the only Q1, and just barely - but collectively, they can add around +1.5 WAB by going 5-0, which would all but lock up a bid heading into the ACC Tournament. 4-1...that's cutline material. 3-2, don't bother.
  • #55 SFA: at TAMU-CC, tonight (+0.23 WAB). I don't think SFA would have an at-large resume even with winning out, as their 28-3 record would still only get them to borderline First Four Out territory. I can dream.
  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, February 16

A Games

NCAAW: #15 Iowa (-2) at #26 Nebraska, 12 PM ET, FOX. I love a good rivalry game, particularly on a day I never got off in school but always get off as an adult. It's nice. This has gigantic importance for each side, as Iowa needs to win to keep pace for a Big Ten double-bye/a potential 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and Nebraska simply needs wins like they need air.

The Huskers have lost four in a row and seven of nine thanks to, oh, just having THE THIRD-WORST 2PT% ALLOWED IN THE ENTIRE SPORT over those nine games. They've been a little unlucky in the sense that opponents are hitting 80% of free throws to go with that, but it's simply one of the worst defenses in the P5.

That spells major trouble when Iowa is coming to down. The Hawks have a top-10 2PT% offense, and against defenses outside of the top-30 (such as Nebraska's), the Hawkeyes have posted a 58% hit rate on twos.

#4 Houston at #7 Iowa State (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN. It's amazing that this isn't our Game of the Week here, but such is how it shook out with Michigan/Purdue looming on Tuesday. Plus, I think it would've been the third Big Monday GotW in a row, so gotta change things up a bit.

The Sampson/Otz battles are always Hell in a Cell but this one seems a little unique. Houston has actually yet to cover a spread against Iowa State, winning by 9 when favored by 11 last year and winning by 8 when favored by 8 in 2024. The under is 3-1, and the two teams have never combined for more than 138 points. The record number of points scored, by either team, is 73...which required Iowa State to shoot 9-17 from 3 and for Houston (the 73-point haver) to attempt 32 free throws.

However, this is the first time they'll have met where 1) both teams have top-20 offenses at KenPom, and 2) both teams can still win the Big 12 regular season title. Thanks to Arizona's 0-2 week, this is probably Houston's title to lose...unless Iowa State rises from the pack with themselves, Kansas, and Texas Tech to get into the mix.

Tactics-wise, this is all about Houston's backcourt for me. Against top-25 defenses, their rate of post-ups drops to a third of what it normally is. Cenac's USG% drops to 13%; Tugler's, 15%. Meanwhile, all of Uzan, Sharp, and Flemings are at 25% or higher. It's essentially last year's offense minus J'Wan Roberts. It's worked beautifully for most of the last three months. Iowa State's best shot, as much as it will pain them, is putting the game on these guards. If they can withstand the Cyclones' immense defensive pressure, which has quietly been good and not great since about Christmas, this is a Houston win. If this is one of those Cougars nights where they touch 15+ turnovers, Hilton magic will rule once more.

B Games

NCAAW: #49 Utah at #30 Oklahoma State (-9), 2 PM ET, FOX. This is the Big 12's version of the Texas/Mizzou MBB game this past weekend: the most bubbilicious game possibly remaining on the entire schedule. If the Tournament were seeded today, Utah would be squarely on the cutline, while Oklahoma State would be a 10 seed. Neither is anywhere close to comfortable, and each have one particularly scary unit in a negative sense (Utah's offense, OSU's defense). OSU has been near-untouchable at home, so it will take a heroic effort by Utah to pull this off.

NCAAW: #41 Richmond (-3) at #65 George Mason, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. I have one rooting interest in this entire article: Richmond must win this game. They must. It's not a question. As of now, Rhode Island is on the 9/10 line. Richmond is around a 10 or 11. If the Spiders can win this game, it goes a long way towards locking up a multi-bid Atlantic 10, and if GMU wins the A-10 Tournament, we could have a three-bid A10 once more. Please.

C Games

#69 Syracuse at #2 Duke (-19), 7 PM ET, ESPN. I mean, it would be nice if any of us had real faith this would be a fun game, but against teams with either a top-40 offense or defense, Syracuse is seven points worse per 100 (even adjusted for competition) and is getting demolished on the boards. Your most likely outcome here is what it says on the tin.

#191 South Alabama at #185 Marshall (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The Sun Belt is a sea of mid this year, with no team ranking better than 144th but 10 of the 14 participants inside the top-250. The race for first, and really the race for every position minus 14th (UL-Monroe has that hammerlocked) is wide-open. Either of these teams could win the league outright. Either could finish 6th.

#86 Stephen F. Austin (-5) at #186 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. SFA moved to 16-1 at the weekend and is very, very likely to get the Southland regular season title. I am happy to report this is the only game left on their schedule where they're under a 10-point favorite, per Torvik. If they win this, they've got a 3-in-5 shot of finishing 28-3, 21-1 Southland. You tell me: would you rather have them in the field, or would you want 20-12 Georgia after they lose in the SEC Tournament to Ole Miss?

Tuesday, February 17

The A+ Game of the Week

#1 Michigan (-2) at #8 Purdue, 6:30 PM ET, Peacock. Goliath versus Goliath, and then some. Michigan can and should still win the Big Ten even if they lose this game, but a win ends the race with three weeks to go. Purdue is 21-4 and 11-3 in, at worst, the nation's second-best basketball league. It feels like a disappointment, and it would feel disappointing if they cannot win this game.

My worry is that Purdue may receive some culture shock here through no fault of their own. To this point, the Boilermakers have played three top-25 defenses, and only one of those (Nebraska) happened since December 6. Against their six opponents in the top-40, Purdue held up fine (1.18 PPP against a top-40 defense is a great result), but their rebounding advantage was neutralized, and TKR's role was diminished to a notable extent. Against top-40 defenses, his USG% falls to 20% (25% against everyone else) and his 2PT% drops to 51% from 61%.

I like not mincing words, so let's fail to mince any here: if TKR puts up 8 points on 4-9 shooting, Purdue is going to lose this game and possibly lose it by double digits. Purdue's frontcourt-heavy attack is even more frontcourt-heavy against the best of the best, and while I love a Braden Smith midrange jumper as much as anyone, he cannot and won't do it alone. The bigs have to show up here for Purdue, no questions asked. (Maybe this is Oscar Cluff's potential shining moment?)

A Games

NCAAW: #13 Tennessee (-1) at #23 Ole Miss, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. This is the rescheduled game from a few weeks ago during the winter storm. Tennessee is not a bad team by any stretch, but they have become one of the most frustrating versions of the Lady Vols I have ever seen, and a blowout win over Mizzou in the midweek didn't overshadow a blown opportunity against Texas at home. I fear a potential cascading effect here against an OM team that is a tough draw no matter what circumstances you're in.

#28 North Carolina at #31 NC State (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is elevated a level because of Will Wade's offseason comments directed towards UNC re: Ven Allen Lubin. As rough of a season as NCSU has had, one can say that Will Wade was Absolutely Correct about VAL: +7 BPM, 138 ORtg on 19% USG%, 71% from 2, and averaging 16 & 8 over NCSU's last 10. I must admit I'm rooting for him to have a huge game here, and Lord knows NC State needs this win like they need air after blowing an extremely winnable game against Miami on Saturday.

#11 Nebraska (-1) at #25 Iowa, 9 PM ET, BTN. Well, I'm still waiting for Ben McCollum's signature win as an Iowa head coach. Can this be it? Iowa's self-pantsing against Purdue this weekend was truly awful, but it's not disastrous. They're going to make the Tournament, and their style could counteract what Nebraska does fairly well. To beat Nebraska's top-10 defense, you have to go against it almost like going against a Houston. If you can hit the short roller before Mast or another big recovers, you have a 4-on-3 possession that gives you the advantage, however temporary. Notably, both the Michigan and Illinois losses saw the Huskers give up a total of 30 points on backdoor cuts, usually from these short rolls. Cam Manyawu has been excellent in these sets, but his passing can be questionable. Is this his time to shine?

B Games

#14 Louisville (-2) at #38 SMU, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Fun fact: since December 15, Louisville is 10-5, has lost by double digits three times, and owns no wins over top-30 opposition. Also, they've only dropped four spots on KenPom for their troubles. During that time, they've outshot their opponents by 12.4% from two, have ranked in the top-100 in both OREB% and DREB%, and have a top-25 offense and defense.

I guess I'm getting at Louisville somehow being a tad undervalued. That opinion could look foolish here, but it seems to me people are treating them like a 7 seed or something, whereas I feel like this is a 5 seed that may demolish a 12 because of the way they play. SMU, meanwhile...fellas, please beat a top-50 team. Just once. Just so I can stop making the point over and over.

#84 Miami (OH) (-4) at #184 UMass, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Miami update: 19% to go undefeated and just won two games in a row by the exact same score of 90-74, which has to be a rarity. Once again, this is their best chance left to lose a game, and it's worrisome to me that UMass has one of the highest improvements against top-150 competition of any team out there. They play up, and down, to whoever happens to be on the schedule. I'm monitoring this one for disappointment and hope nothing happens.

#65 Virginia Tech at #37 Miami (FL) (-8), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. I don't think the Virginia Tech Tournament dream is dead by any means, but it feels like it's on the way out, as Torvik now gives the Hokies just a 30% chance to make it. That does make this a two-way Must Win Game™, as Miami can more or less lock in a bid with a win here.

#32 Wisconsin at #40 Ohio State (-1), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. This is also a Must Win Game™ for Ohio State, who should not make the 2026 NCAA Tournament under any normal circumstances. However, I am aware of the world we live in, which rewards mediocrity and seems to encourage it. As such, I expect Ohio State to win this game to ensure both Santa Clara and New Mexico somehow get left out.

#42 UCLA at #13 Michigan State (-9), 8:30 PM ET, Peacock. Non-home UCLA, per Torvik: 3-7 and 52nd in the nation. This is despite a positive 3PT% delta, hanging in on the boards, doing well in turnovers. My suggestion: stop letting your opponents hit 59% of their twos when you're on the road. Then you can do angsty press conferences like you just listened to Hawthorne Heights at age 13.

#67 Grand Canyon at #41 San Diego State (-8), 10 PM ET, CBSSN. It pains me to tell you to watch a game with two bad offenses, but I am telling you to watch a game with two bad offenses. SDSU is tied with USU for the league lead, but GCU can move ahead for a top-four spot with a win here. This being a new conference 'rivalry', I have no serious data on it yet, but my initial GCU road curiosities (that they'd struggle in much tougher environments than they're used to) seem unfounded. They're 4-4 and 54th at Torvik in road games with a top-20 defense. Seems fine.

C Games

#26 Villanova (-6) at #94 Xavier, 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Rolling 30-day averages are never as usual as engagement farmers make you think they are, but hey, Villanova has played like a top-20 team for the last month. Certainly interesting!

#50 TCU at #52 UCF (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. In somewhat similar fashion, since January 15, this is #79 at #71. I don't particularly find myself riled up for or against either team, but the way people talk about TCU is very interesting to me. Again, if you only watched this team play against top-50 opponents, you would believe they were going to be a 5 seed. Considering their average expected finish in the Big 12 is 9th, that would put them in a pretty funny conundrum: would they be able to beat the 16th-place Big 12 team?

#23 Saint Louis (-10) at #118 Rhode Island, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. SLU is up to a 35% shot of going 18-0 in the A10 and finishing 30-1. When your average expected record is 29-2, 17-1 in league play, you're pretty darn good. By WAB (and by all the resume stats, technically), they're either a 6 or 7 seed. If that's really where they end up...boy, I pity the 10/11 seed matched up with them.

#76 George Washington at #46 VCU (-7), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. Quietly, VCU has won nine games in a row, is 20-6, and has jumped up to 50th in WAB. I'm not big on KPI for fairly obvious reasons (it stinks), but that has the Rams 36th. If we're being forced to treat Ohio State (48th WAB, 60th KPI) as a First Four team, please afford VCU the same luxuries when they have the same number of famed Quadrant 1 wins.

NCAAW: #80 South Florida at #70 Rice (-3.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Rice is 22-3, 12-0 AAC, and has played their Owl tails off for weeks now. They can functionally wrap up the AAC race with a win here. The NCAAW Selection Committee is much harder to figure out in a given year, but if they simply seeded the field by who has the best resume, this Rice team would be in the First Four if they lost in the AAC Tournament.

#43 Georgia at #27 Kentucky (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN. It seems to finally be getting through to the bracketology populace that Georgia is in Real Trouble. Down to 47th in WAB and 40th in SOR, this is a very sneaky Need-Win Game. That's not the same as a Must-Win Game, for the record. UGA could simply really use this win. Mike White as a road dog of 5+ points is also less dire than you'd imagine, more or less 50% ATS.

#55 LSU at #30 Texas (-9), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. No thanks. In all seriousness, this Texas team is probably going to make the Tournament, which is fine. They're chaotic and inoffensive and have a good chance of producing an entertaining 8/9 game, presumably against Indiana.

#16 Texas Tech (-8) at #71 Arizona State, 11 PM ET, ESPN2. Texas Tech achieved what we'll call 'full health' on December 7, which was the first game that all of JT Toppin, Christian Anderson, Donovan Atwell, Jaylen Petty, and LeJuan Watts played starter-level minutes. From that day on, the Red Raiders have played like the #8 team in America, per Torvik, with a top-15 offense and defense. Some of that is unsustainable (41% from 3 and a +9.7% 3PT% delta), but even with some moderate regression to the mean, they're still a top-12 team. Assuming they end up a 3 or 4 seed they're a scary draw for whoever the 1/2 is.

Wednesday, February 18

A Games

#17 Arkansas at #18 Alabama (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Here is a short list of the two things these teams have done in the last three months:

  • Defeated Illinois, St. John's, Auburn (all Alabama), Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and Tennessee (all Arkansas).
  • Lost at home to Kentucky (Arkansas), Tennessee (Alabama), and Texas (Alabama).
  • Own 11 combined Quad 1 wins.
  • Own 7 combined losses by at least nine points.
  • Score 100+ points a combined 11 times.
  • Allow 90+ points a combined 13 times.
  • Rank directly next to each other in KenPom with nearly identical offensive and defensive rankings.

HR meme these teams as you might, they are the exact same team with slightly different flavorings. Both Arkansas and Alabama have been atrocious against good offenses (Hogs 1.2 PPP allowed, Bama 1.22), and both have shredded non-elite defenses (Hogs 1.27 PPP, Bama 1.29). Basically, if this game is what it looks like on paper, I think both are scoring 90+ and it's probably coming down to a mix of shooting variance and officiating. AKA: get ready for a solid 2:26 runtime, BYU/Arizona fans. You'll be starting on ESPN News.

NCAAW: #19 Ohio State at #8 Minnesota (-6.5), 8 PM ET, BTN+. Lotta fun here. Ohio State blew a giant lead against Maryland on Sunday, which makes this game against a Minnesota team that looks more and more like a darkhorse Final Four threat by the week that much scarier. I do like that OSU has played far better against top-25 competition this year than the rest of their slate (Hoop-Explorer grades them out as a legitimate top-15 team in these games), but situationally, pretty yucky spot.

B Games

NCAAW: #27 Baylor at #32 Texas Tech (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The Big 12 title race is going down to the wire. Baylor and WVU are 11-3, TCU 10-3, TTU 10-4, and Oklahoma State and Colorado are both 9-5. It's still truly anyone's race, but if Baylor wants it to be Baylor's race, they have to win this game.

#34 Clemson (-2) at #72 Wake Forest, 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Wake Forest's NCAA Tournament hopes are more or less done, but this game still presents itself as a tricky task for Clemson. True road games have been exceptionally friendly to the Tigers this year, going 6-3 overall, and while that's nice and all, I do wonder if they've simply not revealed a capacity for Dumb yet. Every single college basketball team has a capacity for Dumb, even the elites.

NCAAW: #46 Arizona State at #36 Iowa State (-6), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Not important for Big 12 title race purposes, but pretty important for two teams that would certainly like to be in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. This is 21-6 at 20-6, which is nice and all until you're informed Arizona State has no Quad 1 wins (this does still matter on the NCAAW side of things) and Iowa State is still recovering from their January crater.

#12 Vanderbilt (-6) at #54 Missouri, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. I wonder sometimes if I make Missouri out to be a more confusing team than they actually are. After all, under Dennis Gates, when they shoot 53% or better from two and 33% or better from three, they're 36-5. That's a pretty simple thing to know. It could also be beneficial to know that Vanderbilt has let teams go for 53% or greater from two in half of their last 12 games. Do that here and you open up the door for yet another SEC First Four contender.

#22 BYU at #3 Arizona (-12), 9 PM ET, ESPN. BYU will be down Richie Saunders the rest of the way after a torn ACL, which brought about this frightening tweet from our friend Evan:

I personally would like more data before I come to that same conclusion, but if that 22nd -> 45th drop is accurate, Arizona goes from a 12-point favorite at KenPom to a 17-point favorite. We should learn more here; if BYU loses this by 20+ I think you can begin full PANIC! mode as a Cougar fan.

#6 Illinois (-8) at #49 USC, 10 PM ET, BTN. A stat that sounds wrong but truthfully is not: in home games, USC has the 137th-best offense in America, per Torvik. 137th. Marquette spends most games sticking all available limbs into a blender to see how deep it goes, and even they rank 143rd. This is either ripe for extreme positive regression or it will be an ugly Illinois road win.

C Games

#153 Rutgers at #126 Penn State (-5), 6 PM ET, BTN. Unless I'm missing something, this is probably going to determine who finishes DFL in the Big Ten. That alone gives this game morbid curiosity.

#78 Creighton at #9 UConn (-16), 7 PM ET, TNT. UConn is clearly way better than Creighton, but I am noticing a problem with this UConn team: these guys love playing with their food. The Huskies are a spectacular 5-13 ATS when favored by 10+ this year. They've yet to actually lose any of these games, but if you play with fire enough, eventually, you're gonna get burnt. If I were a UConn fan I'd willingly sacrifice a game like this as opposed to your shock loss happening in the Round of 32 as a heavy favorite.

NCAAW: #1 UConn (-24) at #35 Villanova, 7 PM ET, Peacock. UConn WBB finally looked a little mortal on Saturday as they had to scrap and claw to beat an okay Marquette team by...alright, 15. If that's the wakeup call - only beating a decent opponent by 15 on the road - then I am worried for what will happen to Villanova.

#91 Dayton at #95 George Mason (-3), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. I think I'm officially pulling out my investment from George Mason Island. We had a great run, but property values are crashing, and I need to get out while I can. It's true that I should've sold three or four games ago, I got too emotionally attached, and I'm about to be named in some emails. My bad.

#53 Oklahoma at #19 Tennessee (-11), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Oklahoma did pull out an outright win in this exact situation (10+ point underdog on the road against a state of Tennessee team) recently, but under Porter Moser, the Sooners are 8-15 ATS/2-21 straight-up as a 6+ point underdog on the road. When your median event in these games is a 13-point loss it's hard to get too excited.

#15 Kansas (-7) at #62 Oklahoma State, 9 PM ET, Peacock. We'll see what Darryn Peterson's interest level in a road game in Stillwater, OK is. I will assume "not great" and move on with my day, but maybe this is the game he realizes he should be playing 34 minutes and scoring 32 points in.

#111 Murray State at #98 Illinois State (-4), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. The MVC race officially ended Sunday night thanks to Belmont turning a 17-point deficit into a 17-point win in spectacular fashion at Murray State. At best, this might be for second or third place, which does still matter in the MVC's format. Mostly, I just want some proof of life from both of these teams. They're a combined 9-11 in their last 20 games.

#29 Saint Mary's (-9) at #128 Seattle, 9 PM ET, CBSSN. The nascent Seattle excitement of 2025-26 has officially crash-landed. They're 4-9 in conference play and are on the verge of a rare achievement: at Torvik, they have the #21 defense...and the #294 offense. Just a few spots up and down on both and we'll have the ultra-rare 300/20 duo.

NCAAW: #89 UNLV at #66 San Diego State (-5), 9 PM ET, MWN. This game decides the MWC regular season title, which is San Diego State's by a mile if they win and San Diego State's by a hair if they lose. I don't think UNLV (or third-place Boise) has the horses to make the full challenge possible, but it would at least be realistic if they can pull off the road upset here.

#58 Boise State at #24 Utah State (-10), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. Pretty simple path here on out for USU: just win, baby.

#10 Gonzaga (-15) at #123 San Francisco, 11 PM ET, ESPN2. I was a bit crushed by Gonzaga's win at Santa Clara on Saturday, gotta admit. However, we'll save the Santa Clara Talk for the weekend. For now, this is about Gonzaga, who is down Braden Huff, didn't play Steele Venters at all, has unearthed Davis Fogle from the recycle bin, and played Emmanuel Innocenti 39 minutes...and still beat a top-35 team on the road Saturday. You don't have to like it, but you are legally required to respect it as it pertains to Gonzaga.

Thursday, February 19

A Games

NCAAW: #21 NC State at #7 Duke (-10), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Duke has now won 16 games in a row after starting 3-6, which is one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen a power conference team do. Racking my brain for examples on the P5 side elsewhere, I can only come up with something like 2022-23 Texas A&M, where they started out 6-5 with losses to Murray State and Wofford, then went 15-3 in a top-three basketball league, nearly winning it outright. This is still crazier to me, and I encourage history buffs to set me straight on additional examples. I'm stalling because I think this is a simple game: unless NC State is just the third team to go above 1 PPP on Duke in those now-17 games, they will lose.

NCAAW: #5 LSU (-10.5) at #23 Ole Miss, 9 PM ET, ESPN. The winter storm has set Ole Miss up with a potentially legendary 48 hours, and certainly the worst 120 hours I've seen a team have to deal with in ages. Ole Miss will draw Tennessee (#13), LSU (#5), and travel to South Carolina (#3) in a five-day span. Genuinely, if they can go 1-2, it is a gigantic success that the entire sport should celebrate.

The Non-D1 Game of the Week

D2: #8 Michigan Tech at #14 Northern Michigan (-2.5), 7:30 PM ET, Flo Sports. You know what? I'm not even going to do a traditional sell here. I trust that when I list a D2 game, the traditional readers will know there's good ball involved. I'm going to tell the ADs and admin people who read our website this: if you're at the mid-major level and you anticipate needing a coach in the next year, you should be watching this game like a hawk. No excuses.

B Games

NCAAW: #18 North Carolina (-3) at #38 Virginia Tech, 6 PM ET, ACC Network. This is a highly meaningful game for each side in terms of seeding and ACC positioning, as while the title race is mostly decided (either Duke or Louisville), there are six teams, including these two, who could get the third and fourth spots in the top four. Of note: since UNC moved Nyla Harris to a full-time starting role (more or less, as they play their bench a ton) on New Year's, they've had a top-10 defense and are 9-3.

NCAAW: #14 Oklahoma (-3) at #31 Georgia, 6:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Oklahoma may have a scaling-up problem. Against teams outside of the top 25, per Hoop-Explorer, they're a schedule-adjusted +45 points per 100 possessions, +18.6 on the boards per 100, and +24.5% from two. Against top-25 competition: +36 points per 100 adjusted for opponent, +1.4 on the boards, and +3.9% from two. That's bad when, you know, you have to play top-25 competition to go far in March. Or so I've heard. May not be an issue here?

#119 Cal Baptist at #88 Utah Valley (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. These two, plus Utah Tech, are all tied for the WAC lead with a few games to go. I think these are the actual two best teams in the league. On a really light night for the men's side of things, you can use it to get to know a pair of potential 14 seeds, if nothing else.

NCAAW: #26 Nebraska at #25 Oregon (-3.5), 9 PM ET, BTN+. Part two in Nebraska's Need Wins Week. I can't find it in me to trust this Oregon team at all, because they've been a classic Computer Tricker. Ranking against Quad 1 & 2 competition across 11 games, per Torvik: 36th overall and 4-7. Ranking against Quads 3 & 4: 20th overall and 14-1. You could obviously say similar things about Nebraska, but their splits aren't as wide as Oregon's, and their game doesn't rely on the downhill physicality that Oregon's generally does.

C Games

NCAAW: #106 Marshall at #73 Georgia Southern (-7), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. If you think the men's Sun Belt is wild, try the women's Sun Belt, which is like the men's Sun Belt with actual good basketball teams. There are five teams in the top 100 of the NET, and all five are within one game of each other in the standings. This is 12-3 Marshall at 12-2 Georgia Southern, and the loser might be rewarded with fifth place and a nightmare draw in the Sun Belt ladder.

#224 Vermont at #236 UMBC (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. We haven't touched the America East even once in the last two months on here, but this could be its championship game. NJIT is in the midst of a shocking run to first place, and the loser of this game will be all but eliminated from challenging them for the league title. NJIT! What a world that would be, huh?

#185 Marshall at #177 Appalachian State (-3), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. As noted earlier, the Sun Belt race is truly insane. This is 8-5 at 10-5. SIX teams are within 1.5 games of first-place App State. None of them are noticeably better or worse than the rest. I think the Sun Belt ladder is going to produce some exceptional chaos.

#100 Memphis at #60 South Florida (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Now that Tulsa has hit a true slide (three straight losses), USF has assumed total control of the AAC race. Memphis's only real hope here would be pride and to reassert the Underdog Penny meme I've built up for the past three years.

NCAAW: #3 South Carolina (-14.5) at #29 Alabama, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network. The landscape is such that South Carolina plays three top-30 teams in the final two weeks of the season and still has a 74% chance of winning all three of those games. They're just too powerful. Still, Alabama hung with them for about 25 minutes on New Year's Day, and if they can hit a couple more threes this time around it could be interesting for 30.

#254 Lindenwood at #261 Tennessee State (-4), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Thanks to some recent stumbles, the OVC title race is once again extremely compelling. First through sixth are separated by all of two games, meaning both sixth-place Lindenwood (10-6) and three-way tied for second Tennessee State (11-5) can still technically grab the crown with four games to go. Every year, we have at least one league produce a truly hilarious 16-seed champion, and the OVC feels like a lock for 2026. Congrats to 22-12, 13-7 OVC Lindenwood in about three weeks.

NCAAW: #24 Washington at #2 UCLA (-20.5), 10 PM ET, BTN. UCLA looks complete, or at least as complete as any team that's not UConn. I have this game on here in the event Washington keeps it within 20, which would be notable, as no opponent has stayed within 20 of UCLA at Pauley all season long. Not Iowa (lost by 23), not Maryland (30), not USC (34), not Oregon (21), not Tennessee (22).

Friday, February 20

A Game

#46 VCU at #23 Saint Louis (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. It would feel inauthentic and bad to place this game anywhere else. This is the A-10 Game of the Year, and frankly, the Mid-Major Game of the Year. SLU and VCU must hold serve in moderately difficult midweek games, but if they do, it's 21-6 at 25-1. The last A-10 game with this few combined losses at this point or later in a season? Oh, it's been a while.

Dayton Daily News, February 10, 2004: 19-4 Dayton at 21-0 Saint Joe's.

The path to getting SLU in a close game is one of those "easier than it sounds" bits, but some educational stuff did happen in VCU's home loss to SLU a month ago. The Rams held SLU to their worst offensive output of the season by far almost entirely because 1) they kept SLU off the offensive boards; 2) they kept SLU out of transition play by punting on offensive boards themselves. VCU's best chance here is to turn this into a half-court, one-shot-per-possession game. That will mean sinking in a bit and essentially being okay with SLU getting up 25+ 3PAs in this game, but everyone already knows you need a little luck to go your way if you want to win this.

B Game

#36 Indiana at #8 Purdue (-11), 8 PM ET, FOX. Yes, Indiana can go for the sweep here, but it's worth looking into how that first game set up situationally. Purdue was coming off consecutive losses and had to play at their rival in said rival's biggest home game of the year. This time, Purdue just got done beating Nebraska and Iowa on the road and...oh God, they play Michigan on Tuesday. Indiana CAN go for the sweep here.

C Games

#219 Green Bay at #152 Oakland (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I'm withholding comments here about one of the head coaches in this game, because said head coach seems to have a media apparatus that will defend him at all costs despite literally anything he does on or off the court. Anyway, I'd like for Oakland to win this one.

NCAAW: #109 Murray State (PK) at #136 Bradley, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The women's MVC race is kind of incredible. This is 13-1 Murray at 11-4 Bradley, with 12-2 Belmont lurking if Bradley can hold serve on their home court.

#189 Siena at #163 Merrimack (-4), 8 PM ET, ESPNU. Merrimack has just about wrapped up the MAAC race, but Siena is lurking in third and swept Marist this weekend. Again: winner gets the Syracuse job?

#140 Bowling Green at #84 Miami (OH) (-8), 8:30 PM ET, CBSSN. You know the rules: they're here until they lose. Keep going, RedHawks.