Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out yesterday's top performances and today's Watchability Index.
Saturday, January 31
A Games
#43 San Diego State at #30 Utah State (-7), 1 PM ET, CBS.
For all intents and purposes, this should decide the Mountain West's in-season race. A Utah State home win makes the race almost dead even (each having a ~45% shot to get a share of the league title); SDSU going to Logan and stealing one gives them a 56% chance to take the league outright, with only New Mexico going north of 5%. Also, it's Mountain West on CBS, and look...that matters. (Simmons voice) It just does!
It was mildly surprising that Jerrod Calhoun and crew swept SDSU last year, and closer inspection does reveal at least a little bit of unrepeatable stuff involved. I will assume SDSU probably will not blow a seven-point lead in the final two minutes this year...or a four-point lead after the final media timeout. However, I admit I'd feel better about their odds if they had monster Magoon Gwath for this one, which they don't due to a hip injury.
I'm ultimately very intrigued to see how real or how fake two things are: Utah State's top-25 level of play since adopting a new starting lineup after their loss to South Florida, along with San Diego State becoming a top-35 team with a top-10 defense after telling Sean Newman to D up or get lost. The no-Gwath defensive numbers are still good, but not nearly as elite, and the positive impacts they gain offensively from him sitting down are typically outweighed by losing steam on the boards/in rim protection. This is a way more perimeter-based offense with him off the court, which means you'll see a lot of BJ Davis, Reese Dixon-Waters, and Miles Byrd in this game. Can they score effectively and efficiently while holding down a great offense on the other end? If so, they can erase their sweep from last year with the return game at Viejas looming on February 25. - Will Warren
#15 BYU at #14 Kansas (-4), 4:30 PM ET, ESPN.
The obvious headline here is the freshman phenom showdown between KU’s Darryn Peterson and BYU’s AJ Dybantsa. Both players were born to score, but it will likely not be a frequent head-to-head matchup. The more logical pairings are Tre White covering Dybantsa, with Kennard Davis getting the Peterson assignment on the other end.
Kansas’ defense is elite at forcing opponents to win individual matchups. The Jayhawks are highly switchable, and as a result, they rank highly in isolations allowed (96th percentile, per Synergy) and post ups allowed (93rd percentile).
That is generally ok for the individually talented Cougars, but it will force Dybantsa into a challenging shot diet – an occasional weakness for the star wing. He can get a fadeaway jumper off any time, but when he takes tough ones early in the shot clock, it puts a cap on the Cougars’ offensive ceiling.
The concern there is that White could end up in foul trouble, as Dybantsa lives at the free throw line. Perhaps he won’t get a star whistle at Allen Fieldhouse – the visitors rarely do – Regardless, White is a crucial part of KU’s defense, and his shooting has been pivotal in opening up the court for Peterson, Flory Bidunga and Melvin Council to attack.
Council’s defense also looms large. BYU’s Rob Wright is a tremendous scorer and creator, but the size of Arizona’s backcourt forced him into his worst game of the season (seven points, 3/16 from the field). Like Jaden Bradley, Council is another rangy lead guard who could swallow up the smaller Wright.
BYU may also struggle to get out in transition, typically a massive strength of their offense (23rd in offensive possession length). Kansas has tremendous structure defensively under Bill Self and does a terrific job of limiting run-outs. That is aided by KU’s refusal to turn the ball over (58th nationally in turnover rate, 3rd in the Big 12).
On the other hand, the Cougars’ physical offensive rebounding (first in the Big 12 in league play) could be a challenge for the Jayhawks to handle. Bidunga and Bryson Tiller can get caught chasing blocks – KU is second nationally in block rate – which would open up chances on the boards for Keba Keita, Khadim Mboup and Abdullah Ahmed.
Perhaps this does turn into a shootout between (potentially) the future top two picks in the NBA Draft. But it could be the others – White, Council, Wright, Keita – that actually decide this one. - Jim Root
#33 Kentucky at #22 Arkansas (-7), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN.
The Kentucky Bluegrass may not be greener without Calipari, but it certainly seems bluer. The Wildcats enter Bud Walton Arena with a 5-3 SEC record duct-taped together by two improbably comeback wins on the road and a five-point win over Texas.
In his media availability, Mark Pope shared that Jayden Quaintance and Kam Williams should not be expected back anytime soon, continuing their unavailability with starting point guard Jaland Lowe already out for the season. The Wildcats are coming off Vanderbilt, beating the brakes off them in an 80-55 loss on Tuesday.
If you’re looking for an opportunity to “get right” after a tough loss, heading into Bud Walton as the visiting team does not seem like the ideal setting for that to happen. The Razorbacks haven’t lost at home since February 8th last year. Arkansas just plays at a different level at home.
No true point guard for the Wildcats is, of course, bad; having no point guard against the future SEC Freshman of the Year Darius Acuff is significantly worse. Acuff hasn’t just been the best freshman in the SEC. He’s arguably been the best lead guard, too. The Razorback is averaging 22.6 points and 6.8 assists to 2.3 turnovers in conference play.
This game will be decided by the level of fight and support this Kentucky group shows for its head coach, desperately needing a redirection before Big Blue Nation gets restless in the offseason. - Tuck Clarry
#37 Saint Mary's at #10 Gonzaga (-10), 10:30 PM ET, ESPN.
It’s considered the best rivalry out west, but Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s might look a little different this season than what viewers have come to expect when these two programs meet. Namely, the Zags are the team that is more defense-first and takes care of the basketball.
The Gaels are giving up 11.2 turnovers per game and forcing just 10.5 turnovers by their opponents. It’s the first time they’ve had a negative turnover differential in three seasons and their 17.1% turnover rate is the largest since 2016-2017. Saint Mary’s is giving up 1.01 points per possession this season, which is the first time they have given up a point per possession or more since the 2019-2020 season.
But none of this is to say that Randy Bennett’s team doesn’t have a shot in a rivalry game, especially against a Gonzaga team trying to re-establish their offensive philosophy and best player, Graham Ike, who missed the last three games due to an ankle injury. With no Ike and no Braden Huff, sidelined by a knee injury for at least another two weeks to six weeks, Gonzaga’s offensive analytics took a nosedive.
Sophomore backup center Ismaila Diagne has struggled to be playable on offense in his understudy minutes to the point that Gonzaga went small for 32 minutes against San Francisco last week and played guard-turned-wing-turned-forward 6-foot-7 Jalen Warley at the center position.
There aren’t expected to be any restrictions on Ike in this game, but how Gonzaga deploys backup center minutes against a Gaels team that loves to play massive in the interior (their tandem of Andrew McKeever and Harry Wessels is 7-foot-3 and 7-foot-1, respectively). In addition to life without Huff, Gonzaga has been hindered by poor perimeter shooting from its specialists for much of January. After getting hot in December, Adam Miller and Steele Venters are shooting just 25.5% from three this month on 51 attempts.
For the Gaels, who are still looking for their first Quadrant 1 win, they’ll need someone to provide offense next to forward Paulius Marauskus and get hot from the perimeter while hoping sophomore point guard Joshua Dent is able to handle Gonzaga’s constant switching and point of attack defense. - Tuck Clarry
B Games
#18 Texas Tech (-3) at #45 UCF, 12 PM ET, ESPN2.
A couple major angles worth considering here: UCF shockingly won at Texas Tech in the lone meeting last year, meaning the Red Raiders – Christian Anderson, JT Toppin, Grant McCasland – will surely be seeking a measure of revenge. Texas Tech has also been off for a week, a major boost to one of the thinnest rotations in the country (361st in bench minutes).
That break also gives TTU a chance to further incorporate Josiah Moseley, a versatile forward who finally debuted for the season last weekend, and possibly Luke Bamgboye, the shot-swatting center who has missed time with multiple injuries. Both players would help TTU on the glass, as UCF has been a two-way rebounding force buoyed by wide-body big man Jamichael Stillwell.
Where Stillwell and the Knights struggle, though, is containing opposing scorers around the rim. UCF ranks 13th of 16 Big 12 teams in 2P% allowed, which is a major concern with the sublime Toppin coming to town. The lefty could feast here; last season, he tallied 26 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks against UCF.
Texas Tech’s improving defense will be tested here – especially after Kingston Flemings torched the Red Raiders for 42 points last Saturday. Themus Fulks and Riley Kugel are a handful on the perimeter, two quick drivers who can also bring some physicality. Moseley could help on Kugel, while Jaylen Petty – an impressive two-way contributor as a freshman – should get the Fulks designation.
Ultimately, TTU’s supernova offense should get what it wants, even with some possible looming 3P% regression (42.5% from deep in league play). Whether UCF can keep up will decide the outcome. - Jim Root
#32 Texas A&M at #34 Georgia (-3), 1 PM ET, SEC Network.
If you want to watch two teams try their best to set pace and scoring records in an SEC game, you have a reasonable shot here. Both teams want to play the entire game in the first 10-15 seconds of the shot clock. Both will press hard after made baskets. Both can get left in a smoldering, stinky heap defensively if you break their press. Neither can rebound defensively, neither wants to play a half-court offensive game, and neither has some sort of kryptonite that will halt what the other does best. Both will be in an 8/9 seed game in seven weeks.
What you're being presented with is a game that may or may not mean anything at season's end but could be very memorable in the moment. Texas A&M sits first in the SEC because they've won the games in front of them, which is nice, but the so-far easiest SOS in league play will be one of the two or three hardest from here on out. The reverse situation is Georgia, who has overachieved this year but has also lost two in a row (one truly crushing home loss to Tennessee Wednesday) and has this one before a week-long break.
Motivation each way should be very high. What statistically matters in this game, then? Well, pretty easy, actually: turnovers. A&M is an astonishing 15-0 this year when opponents generate 15 or fewer points off of A&M's turnovers. I don't believe it to be a coincidence that A&M is 4-4 against top-100 defenses and 12-0 against everyone else. This isn't a sharp-handling backcourt, with Pop Isaacs (shocker) and Josh Holloway being pretty brutal about ball-handling.
Considering UGA is 2-4 when generating 15 or fewer points off turnovers and 14-1 at 16+, it's all about the backcourts for me. I think A&M, by nature, will generate some turnovers. They'll foul a ton, as usual. Neither team is going to protect the boards at all, so whatever. Is A&M going to cough up the ball a ton against just their second top-60 defensive opponent of the entire season? If they do, I suggest selling high before games against Alabama and Florida loom next week. - Will Warren
#36 SMU at #19 Louisville (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN.
Once more unto the breach with SMU, the all-time Can You Guys Just Beat a Good Team Away From Home Once In Your Lives My God team of the 2020s. I'm being dramatic, but I'm also not, because under Andy Enfield, SMU is now 2-10 against top-50 KenPom teams and 37-5 against anyone 51st or lower. Those two wins are this year, and they were Texas A&M in overtime on a neutral (a TAMU team I just mentioned I'm selling high on) and North Carolina at home (in a game SMU shot 52% from 3 and 67% on midrange 2s).
I do not proclaim Louisville to be in MUST WIN TERRITORY at this time but based on their fanbase's reactions that read like a four-year old being told they can't have another slice of cake, they are in merely capitalized Must Win Territory. It's a vibes emergency in horse country. Luckily, they are drawing a team that simply refuses to beat other good teams.
My reasoning for why SMU has really struggled to get these over the finish line is pretty simple: their style of play meaningfully differs from when they're playing teams they're better than. Against top-50 competition, SMU's average pace falls from 74 possessions a game to 68 (per Hoop-Explorer), and they go from getting almost 38% of their shots off in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock to 28%, per CBB Analytics. It's actually a pretty fascinating watch. Here, you can see their initial primary break denied, and while this possession ends in two points via a midrange jumper, I'm not sure I would call the process to reach this play beautiful.
This is the majority of SMU's half-court offense against better teams: bailouts by great shooters like Boopie Miller taking and making bad shots. This is also simply not a physical defense, and I cannot proclaim to love a hard-hedge/sometimes blitzing defense that has been lethal against any sort of defense that allows their quick-thinking ball-handlers to make it a 4-on-3 possession. Until SMU finally gets one of these in a true road environment I'll continue betting against having egg on my face. - Will Warren
#31 Indiana at #39 UCLA (-3), 5 PM ET, Peacock.
UCLA has looked very UCLA-like the last 3 games after the Ohio State loss, as they’ve averaged 61 possessions and Mick Cronin has completely abandoned the zone that was one of the early Big Ten story lines. The Bruins have also had their travel schedule settle down, staying at home or the west coast for the past two weeks now. Indiana’s road struggles are quite notable, beating up on Rutgers and Maryland away from Assembly Hall, but otherwise struggling to make shots on the offensive end, and this is very much a jump shot-making dependent offense. While IU has struggled from 3 on the road (32%), they’re going to have their opportunity to “out-math” the Bruins here, as their player/ball movement (one of the highest screen and cut rates off the ball in the country) and spacing has been an antidote to hedge/help dominant defensive schemes. This is even more true with Nick Dorn replacing the injured Tayton Conerway. Dorn is 14-28 from 3 over IU’s last 3 games, and DeVries has noted IU’s spacing has improved with another shooter on the floor. Should Conerway return, he might find himself in a bit of a time share with Conor Enright.
Defensively, there are positives and negatives for this matchup for the Hoosiers. IU’s drop coverage (although they were doubling on the ball more against Purdue) makes them strong in rim deterrence but it’s a bit of a free for all when offenses do get the ball inside. UCLA doesn’t generate much offense at the rim anyway (8th percentile rim rate), and Tyler Bilodeau is much more of a pick and pop, midrange threat than post/paint bully. The trade off is Donovan Dent has upped his production in ball screen creation in UCLA’s three game winning streak, where IU typically funnels defensively.
All in all, certainly not the worst schematic matchup for the Hoosiers on either end, but the road shooting and extreme travel post rivalry win are definite situational factors to consider. - Jordan Majewski
#13 UConn (-7) at #64 Creighton, 8 PM ET, FOX.
Historically, Creighton’s KalkDrop has been a bugaboo for UConn’s elite off-ball actions, as even the juggernaut championship teams were never really able to force Kalkbrenner to leave the paint without an occupying big man offensively in that regard. While that remains true for this UConn offense, Ryan Kalkbrenner obviously no longer haunts Big East offenses, and Isaac Traudt/Kerem Konan have been far from a reasonable facsimile in that regard. The Jays are allowing an 88th percentile rim rate (compared to 13th percentile last season) and a 46th percentile efficiency rating (compared to 94th percentile last season), and just allowed 50 rim points to Marquette, one of the least efficient rim finishing offenses in the country. Besides being able to pound it to Tarris Reed in this matchup, UConn offensively of course is going to run you off a million off-ball actions, and the Jays have graded out in the 14th percentile defending off the ball, and they’ve been even less efficient defending cuts- again, this isn’t a typical Creighton defense. Plus it sounds as though Braylon Mullins should be making his return to the lineup for the Huskies, a significant two-way boost for UConn.
Offensively Creighton is still a strong perimeter reversal offense, creating a 96th percentile unguarded catch and shoot rate and the highest overall 3PTA rate in the league, but UConn’s defense is hyper focused on avoiding being put in rotation and denying the perimeter entirely, allowing just an 8th percentile catch and shoot rate.
Overall, UConn’s most dominant teams have struggled with Creighton’s schemes, and this is perhaps the last mega home game of the season for the Jays (plus UConn’s style makes it difficult for them truly distance themselves and win by margin), but this is far from the typical Creighton defense that has given Hurley so much trouble. - Jordan Majewski
#91 Murray State at #67 Belmont (-6), 8 PM ET, CBSSN.
Classic rivalry game that has carried over to the MVC from the OVC, but the Bruins are 5-1 in the series since they both jumped leagues. Murray State’s defense disappeared for the first two games of their current 3 game losing streak, and then they couldn’t hit a jump shot in the most recent loss to Illinois State (I’m not sure how Ryan Miller can continue to give his nephew minutes if he’s not going to hit jump shots, as he’s also a defensive liability). Diametrically opposed offensive and defensive schemes here, as Belmont’s an elite off-ball screening team with outstanding spacing and catch and shoot production, but have struggled against drop coverages that can clog up the lane and switch off the ball like Murray State does (whether they do it well is the question). Murray State wants to funnel ball screen and dribble production, which Belmont simply doesn’t do (although Jack Smiley has provided some ball screen offense in Nic McClain’s stead). The Racers meanwhile are a spread PNR outfit with multiple ball screen creators (Roman Domon particularly being electric), but have shot just 18-80 from 3 in this 3 game tailspin. That has to change today against Belmont’s extreme overhelp, post doubles against Fred King, and total rim denial (1st percentile rim rate allowed, per Synergy data). - Jordan Majewski
#26 Auburn at #21 Tennessee (-6), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN.
Well, would you look at the time: the We're Back Game of the Week. Two weeks ago, both of these teams were dead and buried, with Tennessee having lost to Kentucky after blowing a 17-point lead and Auburn having to pull off a home escape against South Carolina just to get to 11-7, 2-3 SEC. Since then, Tennessee pulled off road wins at Alabama and Georgia to completely reinvent their resume, while Auburn beat Florida on the road and came back to escape Texas at home.
I felt higher than the national consensus on both two weeks back but I'd caution against a full buy-in beyond either's KenPom ranking. This is still an Auburn team that's very bad defensively (the Tigers have held two of their last 15 opponents below 1 PPP, and those were Queens and South Carolina), and it's still a Tennessee team with a pretty serious turnover problem. Still...you tell me Tennessee ends up a 4 or 5 seed and Auburn a 7, I'd believe that. Both are perfectly capable of a second weekend run.
The Tennessee equation is a pretty obvious one beyond the stars of Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament. Can the Vols continue to wreck shop on the boards, as they have against almost everyone not named Florida and bizarrely Syracuse? My wager here's a pretty big yes. Auburn is very good on the offensive boards but top-50 teams have regularly had their way with the Tigers on the other end. (I think JP Estrella could be pretty huge here.) I'm paying close attention to Ament, though, because seemingly no one alive has noted that since SEC play began he's posted a 115 ORtg on 25% USG and is attempting eight free throws a game.
The other end of the equation is also intriguing. Tennessee's lost two games all year (Kansas and Kentucky) when their opponents shot under 50% from two, and both of those required the opponent to shoot north of 40% from 3. Auburn runs astonishingly hot and cold from 3 - three games of 50%+, two games of <12% - and while their offense is great against anybody it does become essentially a two-player team against top-50 competition with Keyshawn Hall and Tahaad Pettiford. Hall intrigues me massively here in particular; his direct downhill attack rate nearly doubles against top-50 competition with his Assist Rate falling severely. If Tennessee can handle him 1-on-1 without help it'll go a long way towards ensuring the Vols protect home court. - Will Warren
C Games
#3 Duke (-12) at #55 Virginia Tech, 12 PM ET, ESPN.
It sure feels like a while ago that Duke collapsed against Texas Tech and then allowed a combined 166 points to Florida State and Georgia Tech in near-losses at the turn of the New Year.
Since those three games - their three worst of the year by a points per possession basis, Duke has been pretty darn dominant. Only one of the Blue Devils' last six games have been a win by fewer than double digits, and victory lap walk-on Cameron Sheffield has seen the floor in four straight contests. Saturday could be his fifth straight appearance.
The only way to beat Duke is elite shotmaking because of their menacing switching scheme that keeps the ball in front, and denies rim and free throw attempts. The five times Duke has allowed an effective field goal percentage of 50% or higher are also the only five times they've allowed more than 1.01 points per possession.
Virginia Tech is just 12th in the ACC in effective field goal percentage offense in league play, and rank only 105th in Shot Quality's offensive shotmaking metric. It will be hard for pick-and-roll heavy guard Neoklis Avdalas to gain advantage matchups in screens, and it's no coincidence that five of Virginia Tech's six losses have come when he's made four or fewer field goals.
You never know, maybe the bouncy Tobi Lawal makes Cameron Boozer's life challenging, Mike Young schemes up a masterful offensive game plan, or the Blue Devils have an off-game. But the most likely outcome is a lot of what we've seen in 2026 for Jon Scheyer and Co., another big win. - Matthew Winick
#57 Cincinnati at #6 Houston (-14), 12 PM ET, FOX.
Last weekend, Houston’s 16-game winning streak in true road games came to an end when the Cougars lost to Texas Tech 90-86. Kelvin Sampson’s team had no answer in the interior against JT Toppin and Houston lost the rebounding battle by 16 boards. On Wednesday, they got back on their winning ways, beating TCU in Fort Worth 79-70.
Now, Houston is looking to sweep its series against Cincinnati, hosting the Bearcats and seeking an improved performance from the frontcourt against a Cincinnati team that held Baylor to 0.83 points per possession. Is this something Wes Miller’s team can build off of, or will they fall flat like they did when they followed a win against Iowa State with a 26-point loss to Arizona and a 14-point loss to Arizona State on the road?
Freshman Kingston Flemings has gone from one of the best freshmen in the country to one of the best players in the sport. He followed a 40-point performance against the Red Raiders with a 27-point performance against TCU. Flemings did have 4 turnovers to 5 assists in that game, but the freshmen and the Coogs in general have been elite at valuing possessions, holding a turnover rate of just 11.5% in Big 12 play.
If Cincinnati can’t get out in transition by manufacturing Houston turnovers, we may be looking at another ugly loss for Miller’s team. - Tuck Clarry
#35 Texas (-1) at #63 Oklahoma, 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
Several factors in play in the Red River rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma. The Horns have won their last 6 straight games in Norman in this series, which is practically unheard of, while Oklahoma has lost 7 straight SEC games, the last 4 being heartbreakers. The biggest issue for Oklahoma in this matchup is their rim defense, or lack thereof. The Sooners are allowing 56% on 2PT attempts in SEC play, and have allowed nearly 50 rim points on average over their past 2 games. Texas’ offense is entirely predicated on their ability to slash to the rim with big, abusive wings like Dailyn Swain or feed Matas Vokietaitis on the block. OU forces a high isolation rate defensively (93rd percentile), but that’s exactly where Texas wants to operate offensively, as their scheme is very individual matchup dependent out of ball screens and handoffs. OU’s defense being this porous in SEC play despite offenses shooting just 29% from 3 against them does not portend any significant improvement on that end.
Offensively OU can certainly play through the Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown ball screen against Texas’ strict drop coverage, but there’s no real threat to unplug Vokietaitis from the paint, nor do the Sooners draw a lot of contact, where Texas has struggled has really struggled to defend without fouling (Auburn’s comeback against the Horns was largely fueled by an absurd 28 free throws in the second half). Strong matchup for both offenses overall, but the Sooners’ porous rim defense plays directly into the Horns’ strengths. - Jordan Majewski
#2 Arizona (-16) at #78 Arizona State, 2 PM ET, TNT.
Barring a Big 12 Tournament rematch (without looking, I'm assuming this would have to be some situation where Arizona either falls to second/third in the conference or Arizona State somehow finishes 16th), this will be Bobby Hurley's final game against his in-state rival. 21-0 Arizona losing this game as a 92% favorite at KenPom would only be the 20th-largest upset of the season, but it would certainly feel like the single largest if it actually happens.
So: let's outline the path, because otherwise this is a pretty boring game to break down where the average outcome is Arizona by 15-20. The games where Arizona has been most threatened offensively have generally come against teams that 1) will play drop coverage from the start, and 2) sink deep enough to at least eliminate some of the battering-ram post play that guys like Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka provide. In these games, Jaden Bradley, Brayden Burries, and Koa Peat have still been the top-three, but the gap between them and the rest in terms of impact have been more pronounced. If you can at least attempt to sit deep and force the Wildcats to take 10+ midrange jumpers, that gives you a path.
On the other end, Arizona's four or so worst games (UConn, Florida, BYU, and hey, Arizona State) have come against teams that can create quickly in transition and have creative ball-handlers that can score and draw enough attention to hit off-ball cutters. Again, easier said than done, but hey, at least Arizona State's done this. The Sun Devils play some drop coverage and are somewhat okay as a post-up defense team. All they have to do is play their best game in two months (the Oklahoma demolition) and they'll win. Easy enough! - Will Warren
#40 Ohio State at #41 Wisconsin (-2), 2 PM ET, FOX.
Wisconsin barely dodged a bad home loss to Minnesota on Wednesday, needing to erase a 20-point deficit before surviving a stressful final minute at the Kohl Center. The Badgers made just six two-point field goals in that game, getting far too over-reliant on the long ball against the Gophers’ compact shell.
Ohio State’s goal is to force the same kind of shot diet, as their weak rim protection can get exposed if the volume gets too high. That’s especially true with Christoph Tilly likely to miss his second straight game. Per Hoop Explorer, opponents shoot 63.8% at the rim when Tilly sits, compared to 54.5% with him on the court.
Wisconsin’s ability to spread the court makes those rim attempts all the more likely. Nolan Winter, Aussie Rapp and Aleksas Bieliauskas can all fill it up, opening up the paint for Nick Boyd and John Blackwell off the bounce. Both veteran guards excel at getting to the rim and the free throw line.
Ohio State can score as well, with Bruce Thornton one of the country’s best mid-range scorers and table-setters. John Mobley can light it up from deep, and Devin Royal has plenty of advantageous one-on-one matchups while playing the 3.
Expect a highly efficient game with Wisconsin trying to push the pace. Neither team could make a jumper in the lone meeting last year (combined 10/39 from deep, 25.6%), but Wisconsin ended up prevailing late thanks to their frequent trips to the charity stripe. A similar outcome feels likely. - Jim Root
#25 NC State (-4) at #75 Wake Forest, 3:45 PM ET, The CW.
Not to sound dramatic, but Tuesday night may have been the unofficial end of Wake Forest's season. Their resume hanging on by a thread with no awful losses by no Top 50 KenPom wins, the Demon Deacons not only lost at lowly Pitt, but also suffered a potentially larger loss with starting point guard Nate Calmese going down with an ankle injury that will cost him time.
Calmese is the team's engine and was on pace towards threatening for an All-ACC spot. Without him in the lineup, the team was run by Denver transfer Sebastian Akins, and rarely-used freshman Isaac Carr. If you add in the fact that Wake Forest is last in the ACC in rebounding margin and free throw margin, while also ranking bottom-three in 2-point defense and 2-point distance defense, there really isn't a place to direct optimism with the program right now.
Quietly, NC State isn't in an entirely different place, with only one Top 50 KenPom power conference win and an equally bad loss to Georgia Tech. Will Wade is already thinking about his mistakes in the portal, which is probably not a good thing for the rest of this year.
Both teams love to run on offense, and play an aggressive style of defense that forces tons of turnovers. Whoever can get more takeaways and convert in transition will likely come out victorious here. In game one of this matchup, these teams combined to go 14-52 from deep in an ugly 70-57 NC State win at home. If either of these squads can get hot from 3 in a matchup where they'll get plenty of looks, that could also be the differentiator. - Matthew Winick
#65 California at #38 Miami (FL) (-8), 4 PM ET, ACC Network.
True story: in terms of two-way Tournament involvement, this is the most impactful and anxiety-filled game of the entire weekend. I'm serious! Take a look at this:
This game could change California's entire season, and boy, what a time for that to potentially happen. The Bears would vault themselves into some at-large discussions with a win, and given Miami's recent few games - 2-2, yes, but neither of the wins were terribly pretty ones - it's worth investing some mental energy into Cal improving to 3-4 away from home with a win here.
To do it, they have to hold up defensively better than they have in basically any game defensively this season, Stanford notwithstanding. Under Mark Madsen, the Bears are 33-13 when holding their opponent below 50% from two (8-31 when they don't), which I would love to be happier to read if, in their nine games against top-100 teams, Cal had done this more than thrice. Considering one was against Florida State and said outing was a 49% 2PT you could easily say they're 2-for-9 in getting this done.
Miami has had some struggles against better competition, playing significantly slower and becoming more reliant on Tre Donaldson/Tru Washington late-clock bailouts by way of bullying themselves to the rim. Cal plays about the same way regardless of opponent, but I'd feel better here if Cal ran drop coverage of any kind. Miami's guards are capable of turnovers, but this Cal team doesn't force them despite routinely sending two to the ball on ball screens. Most likely outcome: some sort of elongated 11-point Miami win where Cal is never fully out of it but never fully in it. - Will Warren
#149 Montana State at #156 Portland State (-2), 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
After winning seven straight to begin Big Sky play, Portland State was finally bested by Montana and Player of the Year candidate Money Williams' 24-point performance. It was a long time coming for Portland State, who won five of their seven league games by four points or less, or in overtime.
The quartet of Jaylin Henderson, Terri Miller, Keyon Kensie, and Tre-Vaughn Minott rarely sit for Jace Coburn and company, and they basically just rotate seven guys in and out of the fifth spot depending on matchups and who's playing well. Against a jumbo Montana State team who's highest usage players are 6-7 and 6-8, it could be Academy of Art transfer Isaiah Williams.
Montana State has just two losses to its name in league play, though are coming off their worst loss of Big Sky play at Sacramento State. The Bobcats really missed the play of point guard Davian Brown, who was out with injury. Montana State was forced to their lowest 2-point output of the year at just 11 makes, and Portland State is as good as any team in the league at denying the rim.
If Montana State is forced to be a shoot-first team again here, Portland State should be able to hang on at home and extend their lead in the conference. If the Bobcats can ride their high scoring wings to a road victory, they'd take a slim half-game lead in the race to Starch Madness in early March. - Matthew Winick
#69 South Florida (-6) at #150 Temple, 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
Could be bad, could be good. Who really knows? This has some pretty intriguing AAC effects to it, as this is one of the three teams tied for first in the league (South Florida) traveling to one of the four teams tied for second (Temple). I think that should sum up the league pretty well for an outsider who knows nothing else about AAC hoops this year.
I look for any sort of home/road effects in games like these where everything else is more or less even. (There's not a huge plus effect in terms of top-100 performance either way.) Temple is a little better at home but it's nothing notable, and USF cancels it out anyway by being a tad better away from home. It's all about how well Temple can or can't control pace in this game. If the transition-heavy, Oats-lite USF offense cannot score quickly and early in the clock, their half-court O is good but not great and is really reliant on not playing drop coverage. Sounds a little nuts, yes, but USF straight up doesn't take dribble jumpers and drop coverages (nothing extreme or anything, but enough to force the ball handlers to make decisions)...which would worry me a tad against a Temple defense that mixes coverages well enough and doesn't allow a lot of kickout threes. - Will Warren
#73 Ole Miss at #12 Vanderbilt (-14), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
Another winter storm hitting the southeast has meant Ole Miss and Vandy have swapped home dates, meaning this game is now in Nashville, a pretty big break for the Dores for the time being (won’t seem so great in March when they finish the regular season with 3 straight road games now), but the Rebels still had a week off to prep and find some way of scoring that isn’t AJ Storr isolations. Vanderbilt’s small but versatile lineup is built to force a high isolation rate (97th percentile) and Ole Miss is happy to oblige, with a 99th percentile iso rate offensively (per Synergy data). Vandy will be down two of their better iso defenders in Duke Miles and Frankie Collins however, but Ole Miss owns just a 2nd percentile rim rate, the lowest in P5 hoops outside of Houston- this isn’t an offense capable of exposing Vandy’s lack of size in the frontcourt.
While Ole Miss’ offense is entirely iso dependent, the same is true of the defense, where they force the highest isolation rate in the country, and have been strong in PNR denial in a pretty typical Mark Adams no middle scheme. Vandy is an elite spread PNR offense that could have some real issues scoring here, as they’re not an offense constructed to consistently win isolation matchups (10th percentile rate), especially down Miles (although Tyler Tanner has been a highly efficient iso scorer in a small sample). I don’t trust Ole Miss offensively in any given matchup, but their defensive scheme could slog this up enough to stay within single digits, especially given the Dores’ roster limitations and the Rebels’ extra prep time. - Jordan Majewski
Sunday, February 1
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#5 Illinois at #11 Nebraska (-2), 4 PM ET, FS1.
Sounds like there’s a good chance Rienk Mast (more likely) and Braden Frager (trending in the right direction) both suit up for the Huskers, which is vital to keep pace with this Illinois offense. First meeting of course saw the Huskers stun the Illini in C-U, shooting 12-26 from 3 while Illinois stretched the Huskers’ help heavy scheme out in PNR and picked on isolation matchups, as they tend to do. The Huskers’ 30 catch and shoot points were the most Illinois has allowed all season outside of Minnesota popping off for 35, while the 39 rim points posted by the Illini were the most Nebraska’s sell out rim denial defense (1st percentile rim rate) has allowed all season. Most of these rim points came via simple cuts and rolls when Nebraska kept hedging Keaton Wagler’s ball screens:
and he ended up with 10 assists, but he also became a scorer when the Huskers realized they had to start taking away the rim (same issue Purdue had against him, as they couldn’t hedge, drop, or switch on him, but in a much more extreme torching). Illinois has been more varied in their defensive coverages this season, but they’re still a drop base, which Nebraska has been able to unplug with Mast’s top of the key threat as a hub shooter/passer. This opens up the lane against drop coverages for slips and cuts when defenses start overplaying Nebraska’s perimeter actions, and the Huskers matched the Illini in terms of cut efficiency. Pryce Sandfort also went bananas from the perimeter, and Nebraska scored 1.42 PPP on contested jump shots. Both offenses absolutely shredded in the first meeting, but the Illini spread PNR felt a little more sustainable against this Nebraska hedge and help with how they were able to create lanes to the rim in a way few, if any, offenses have done against the Huskers’ total dribble and post denial. - Jordan Majewski
A Game
#17 Alabama at #7 Florida (-6), 1 PM ET, ABC.
What a wonderful Sunday treat between this and Illinois/Nebraska. I'll miss this NFL season greatly, but hey, as it leads towards more marquee Sunday games (including the first non-COVID or weather Sunday SEC game since December 31, 2017), it's for the best.
The Golden/Oats crossover is usually pretty feisty just based on the styles clash both programs bring, but this edition could have a little extra heat, as Golden has spent the last two weeks publicly saying they'll win this game no matter what NBA player Alabama adds to their roster, while Oats has fired back by claiming Florida gets preferential treatment from officials. There will never be odds on these things, but I will take the over on 0.5 coach technicals and 1.5 player technicals in this game. It feels like a lock that this gets physical and nasty to a new level.
Outside of the very first game, which went to Oats via a 97-69 blowout in February 2023, the next five have all been Florida covers, four of which were outright wins. Every team in a conference will have a problem matchup or two, even the elites; Oats seems to have a couple of problem matchups in the SEC between Tennessee and Florida. There's some commonalities there in that they're both highly physical defense-first programs that make their names on the boards and run more actions through their bigs than anyone else in the league.
Evaluating Alabama's defense through all of two games of Bediako is obviously tough, but the only noticeable effects are that Oats can run more drop coverage with him and that they're forcing more midrange twos. Florida's guards against any kind of drop coverage is obviously very worrisome, but until this Alabama team proves it can rebound defensively whatsoever I have a hard time thinking they can break open this one on the road against traditional kryptonite for the Oats system. - Will Warren
B Game
#95 Wichita State at #56 Tulsa (-8), 2 PM ET, ESPNU.
Extra prep for Paul Mills to figure out a way to slow down this Tulsa drive and kick offense that's torching the AAC to the tune of 1.25 PPP and 42% from beyond the arc. The Shockers however are quietly a solid rim and 3 defense, allowing just a 6th percentile catch and shoot rate and a 92nd percentile rim defense efficiency rating, per Synergy data. Tulsa's least efficient offensive performance in AAC play actually came at home against USF's drop coverage, and the Shockers will drop and switch 1-4 almost exclusively defensively.
Tulsa defensively hasn't been particularly strong on the ball, and have generally had issues against elite ball screen creators and often end up in rotation. This isn't particularly ideal against Kenyon Giles, but the ball tends to really stick for the Shockers, and I'm not sure they have the spacing and ball movement to really punish Tulsa's help like USF did. The Shockers can compete on the defensive end, but I'm dubious that they can muster enough offense on the road to actually pull out a win. - Jordan Majewski
C Games
#9 Purdue (-13) at #123 Maryland, 1 PM ET, CBS.
Sometimes on the Watchlist, we have games included that are only included in the event a Certified Situation arises. The Certified Situation in this case is obvious: Maryland stops playing a version of basketball so embarrassing that it's been outlawed in 28 countries at the time of writing and finally decides to do good things for the first time all season.
I would argue it's most likely such a thing will not be happening. Purdue has lost three games in a row, which the Eye on College Basketball guys helpfully define as a slide. It would require Purdue's worst performance of the entire season - yes, worse than the Iowa State home loss - to lose this game. All four of Purdue's losses this season have come in games where they've attempted 15 or fewer free throws, and boy, what a time to play a team that has not held their opponent to 15 or fewer free throws since December 6. - Will Warren
#4 Iowa State (-12) at #87 Kansas State, 2 PM ET, FOX.
The Tang/Otz games through three years have been interesting if erratic. Every elite or very good team in a conference has a couple of bugaboo programs they struggle hard with, and while I wouldn't fully classify KSU as that for Iowa State it's still notable that despite being favored in six of the seven games versus the 'Cats Iowa State is just 4-3. You'll recall last year's shocking home self-immolation but you may not recall future 6-seed Iowa State losing on the road to KSU in March 2024 and scoring just 58 points to give KSU just their fourth win in 13 games.
The great news for Otz and crew is that I don't think this KSU team is at all like the last three. Those three, despite serious offensive concerns post-2023, did all finish in the top-40 defensively and routinely had at least one fantastic perimeter defender. This year's edition is outside of the top-100 and the best perimeter defender is Nate Johnson, a starter at Akron last year. ISU's only two losses this year have come to the two best defenses they've played, and against defenses outside of the top-50 they're averaging 129.4 points per 100 possessions. Even by weeding out the Fairleigh Dickinsons of the world and focusing on defenses ranked 51-150, it's still 122 points per 100, and KSU's own results against top-50 defenses (98.9 per 100) suggests ISU winning this without too much of a fight. - Will Warren
#50 TCU (-1) at #84 Colorado, 2 PM ET, TNT.
Is TCU any good? Well, who knows. If I told you only that they'd defeated all of Florida/Wisconsin/Baylor and nearly defeated both Michigan and Kansas, you'd believe they were a top-15 team. If I told you everything else that has happened - losses to New Orleans, Notre Dame, and Utah, along with a narrow escape over Incarnate Word - you would be stunned they're anywhere near the Tournament at all.
At the time of writing, Torvik gives the Horned Frogs a 38% chance of getting in, one which rises a good bit by simply not losing this game tomorrow. TCU is a very bizarre team to evaluate because they've played way better away from home, rated out as a top-25 team with a top-15 defense. I can't bring myself to actually believe in that, but if you said 43rd or something I'd probably nod my head.
The Colorado rub for approximately 20 years has been that they only win at home, which isn't entirely true or false. This year's Buffs are 9-4 at home and grade out the same efficiency-wise, but it comes with a gigantic glowing red regression indicator of opponent 3PT% being 39%. That will not last, but it's not like they defend well elsewhere, and their level of play over the last 10 games is legitimately worse than Rutgers. Excluding shooting I'd look to turnovers to tell the tale here. TCU is 10-5 when they draw or win the turnover margin (3-3 otherwise); Colorado is 8-5. - Will Warren
#135 ETSU (-2) at #192 Wofford, 7 PM ET, CBSSN.
Note that this game has been moved back a day to Sunday due to inclement weather, which gives ETSU an extra day to recover from a stunning home loss to WCU, where they surrendered a season high 1.32 PPP, getting torched inside and out by the Mounts. Despite Kevin Giltner’s strong background as a motion offense schemer, Wofford’s best offense has come from box score stuffer Kahmare Holmes’ ball screen/dribble creation. Unfortunately he left the Chattanooga game early in the 2H with an ankle sprain. Holmes is an essential two way player for the Terriers, and his status is of high importance. However, ETSU is an extreme ball screen denial defense with a high hedge and trap rate, so this was always going to be a tough matchup for Holmes to be the primary playmaker, and more offense was likely to be filtered through point-forward Cayden Vasko in the short roll/handoff/inverted PNR, where he has been an efficient distributor.
Holmes will actually be missed more off the ball, as you need spacing, shooting, and ball movement against this overly aggressive ETSU defense, and while Wofford has shot 41% from 3 in SoCon home games, they’re not necessarily overloaded with shooters if Holmes is out.
Offensively, ETSU is pretty straightforward- cuts to the rim. The Bucs own a 99th percentile cut rate with a roster of slashers. Wofford isn’t a particularly strong rim defense, and we might see Giltner turn to the zone that was used against a similarly constructed Mercer offense last week. - Jordan Majewski
#23 Iowa (-7) at #99 Oregon, 8 PM ET, FS1.
Ben McCollum’s first west coast road trip in the Big Ten offers a soft landing. Due to injuries and poor roster construction, Oregon has tumbled to the precipice of the top 100 (99th in KenPom), and without Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle, the Ducks are borderline pathetic.
Without both star bookends on the court, Oregon has a -16.2 Net Rating per 100 possessions, per CBB Analytics – good for the 11th percentile nationally. To make matters worse, TK Simpkins missed last game as well. In 90 minutes this season with all three on the bench, Oregon is a pathetic -31.2 per 100 possessions:
The galling lack of depth on this roster has flared up in a disastrous way. Both stars are for sure out again, while Simpkins seems like a long shot to return from an ankle injury.
That should allow Iowa to get an easy victory, even at a traditionally-challenging venue. The Hawkeyes’ offense has not been sharp in league play (12th of 18 Big Ten teams in points per possession, per KenPom), but the disruptive defense will generate a bevy of easy opportunities going the other way.
Oregon ranks 17th in the Big Ten in turnover rate on offense, totally lacking a primary ball-handler without Shelstad. Wei Lin and emergency option Drew Carter are probably not B1G-caliber players (apologies to my colleague Jordan Majewski and his Lin love), and the Duck bigs – Kwame Evans, Sean Stewart – will face pressure from Iowa’s sticky-fingered frontcourt. Even with the challenging travel, I’d be surprised if this is not a runaway. - Jim Root