The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

I mean, what more do you need? You have 6,500+ words ahead of you, so lock in and read on. I also have a rare in-season essay coming tomorrow that I think you will enjoy. It is made more unusual by my feeling while writing it that I think it's pretty good. Normally, by the time I finish something I don't want to see it again, but this one is nicely done. Anyway, basketball.

  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, January 25

The First A+ Game of the Week

#1 Arizona (-3) at #15 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN. It's a shame that this week is such a week we have to split A+ Game of the Week duties. Alas, we have two bookend bangers, and I am here to appease the populace.

You are aware of both of these teams and what they bring to the table. For one, it is 20-0 at 17-2, and the stat referenced for Nebraska/Michigan later is also applicable here, though that game will technically beat this one by a single day. Arizona has a top-5 offense and defense. BYU has either the best or second-best player in the Big 12 and certainly the league's best Big Three.

There is immense, immense pressure on BYU to get this one done. As enjoyable of a team as they are, their best win this season remains their season opener over a Villanova team that, at the time, was not expected to make the Tournament. The two top-25 teams they've played against (UConn and Texas Tech) were both losses where BYU's defense surrendered 86 and 84 points. Their game immediately following this is at Kansas, which is almost the same as scheduling a loss. If you want your Signature Win with AJ Dybantsa, this is the one.

They'll also get a little schedule help in their favor here. Both are on equal rest of just 48 hours, but Arizona is the one having to go on the road, whereas BYU had a full seven-day rest before beating a bad Utah team.

Both of these teams will want to push the pace offensively, and both will want to slow it down defensively. Both want to own the boards and avoid turnovers. Both funnel a ton of opponent shots to the midrange. The key for me: math. It's obvious that BYU is going to take, and likely make, more threes than Arizona. What's not obvious is if this will be an efficient process. Unsurprisingly, BYU's two losses have come in games where they've shot 31% or worse from deep, while two of their best wins (Miami and Wisconsin) saw them shoot north of 40%. Which BYU do we get? Does Dybantsa fully take over? Are we about to see the true College Basketball Event, which would be Kennard Davis suddenly banging in four threes after going 0-12 across BYU's last three games? I can't wait.

A Games

#16 Louisville at #3 Duke (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is the rematch of a game a few weeks ago where Louisville rushed out to a double-digit first half lead, seemed like they might be just fine without Mikel Brown, Jr., and then Duke ended up routing Louisville on the road behind a monster second half by the best player in the nation and (possibly) Isaiah Evans' first-ever good defensive performance. Can you repeat that? I don't know, but I look forward to finding out.

The key to Louisville winning or losing under Pat Kelsey is pretty simple. Did they make 11 or more threes? If they did, they probably won (24-3). If they didn't, they still were more likely to win than lose (17-10), but at a much lower pace and with a 16-point difference in average MOV. It makes predicting Louisville games pretty tough, save for knowing if the opponent will allow a lot of three-point attempts. Against Kelsey in three games, Duke's allowed 89 3PAs to 85 2PAs. All it takes is a game where the Cards shoot 13-31 from deep and they're right in this.

B Game

None.

C Games

NCAAW: #53 Florida at #5 LSU (-29), 8 PM ET, SEC Network. This is almost certainly going to be an LSU whooping, but if you haven't seen Liv McGill play for Florida yet this year, it's highly entertaining. There's not a shot she won't take. The Gators aren't touching the NCAA Tournament this year, but McGill would be a great player in the Non-NCAAT Player Drafted Onto an NCAAT Roster hypothetical.

Tuesday, January 26

A Games

#12 Nebraska at #2 Michigan (-9), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Armageddon, for real this time. I believe this is the first game with two or fewer combined losses this late in the year since Duke/UNC on February 6, 2008 (19-1 at 21-1), and as for one or fewer losses, I'll let Jared Berson tell me. Basically, this is the lowest-loss game we've seen this late in a season in probably three decades or longer. It's a once-in-a-generation thing...and luckily, it's on a streaming service!

Also, it didn't earn the A+ Game of the Week designation. Why? Because...well...I mean, I've been wrong about Nebraska so much that I feel like I should stop while I'm ahead. But: I think they could get rocked here. The Huskers have been phenomenal at keeping opponents out of the paint, slowing games down to a crawl defensively, and forcing their opposition to take a lot of threes. This would theoretically play very well into Michigan's weaknesses, and I can see the rationale for that.

There are a pair of problems I have with this analysis. One is that, as good of a job as Nebraska has done at simply winning games, they have played just one top-25 offense (Illinois) and defense (Michigan State) each, and it wasn't the same team. These were not coincidentally their closest games, each of which required a heavy shooting overperformance (46% from 3 against the Illini) or a complete mental collapse (MSU losing the turnover battle 21-8). In both games, Nebraska got outshot from two and lost the rebounding battle big time. This simply doesn't fill me with confidence against the best two-way 2PT% team in America, one which is arguably a worse athletic matchup for what Nebraska does than either Illinois or MSU. Anyway, looking forward to 21-0 Nebraska and egg on my face.

#8 Purdue (-4) at #35 Indiana, 9 PM ET, Peacock. Meanwhile, this is just pretty good. It's also a rivalry! I love rivalries, especially crabs-in-a-bucket rivalries. Each fan base would rather die before seeing the other get a long-awaited national title. While Indiana fans are finally forced to remember basketball exists, Purdue must recover from a rare home loss to Illinois at the weekend in which the Boilermakers suffered from a once-in-a-lifetime Keaton Wagler game.

I guess it will not surprise to hear I am not giving up on Purdue after an 0-2 week in which their opponents, normally 37% shooters on average, combined to shoot 47% from 3 in two games Purdue lost by a combined seven points. Do I think they need Fletcher Loyer to be way better? Obviously. Would it kill TKR to demand the ball more? It shouldn't. But is Purdue suddenly broken after they had played like a top-5 team with an elite offense and pretty solid defense in their first 18 games? I don't see it.

B Games

#22 Arkansas (-3) at #65 Oklahoma, 7 PM ET, ESPN. Arkansas's home results this past week caused a mini-freakout amongst Ball Knower Twitter and, as such, has made them the new darkhorse Final Four pick for Ball Knowers. Here is my counterpoint: at home, they have played like the 14th-best team in the nation and are 13-0. They are +12% from 3 at Bud Walton Arena, which is spiritually correct given every experience I have had watching a team I like play there. Away from home, they have played like the 40th-best team, are 2-5, and are a much more normal -0.6% from 3. They can go a long way towards reassuring me they're 14th and not 40th not only by winning this game, which they should do, but winning it by 10+. If they're more 40th than 14th this is far closer to a 50/50 proposition.

#71 George Washington at #24 Saint Louis (-12), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. We're finally at the point where everyone is beginning to take Saint Louis seriously. Even then, I don't think we're fully there. SLU is 24th at KenPom/21st at Torvik, for one, but with all games against sub-300 teams removed at Torvik, this is a top-15 team in America with a top-25 offense and defense. In 2022-23, FAU graded out as merely a top-25 team with a top-40 offense and defense. Their road in March will be tougher than anything FAU faced simply because the top of the sport is much better, but in terms of true mid-majors (aka, not Gonzaga), this is easily your best shot at an Elite Eight team.

NCAAW: #23 West Virginia (-5.5) at #47 Utah, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. WVU is trending towards 5-seed territory or so, which makes this a legitimate Must Win Game™ for a Utah team squarely on the bubble. I suggest winning the turnover battle for just the fourth time all season myself.

#27 Kentucky at #13 Vanderbilt (-7), 9 PM ET, ESPN. I guess the motto of Kentucky this year is to wait until the final five minutes to tune into their games, finally making them the premier NBA program of college basketball. As confounding as they may appear on the surface, they've had a pretty good tell in their results: 9-1 when they score 17+ fastbreak points, 5-5 when they go for 16 or fewer. In general, the more time Kentucky has to spend in half-court offense, the worse they look; they're 8-1 when they get off at least 35% of their shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock and, yes, 6-5 otherwise.

#282 Northwestern State at #93 Stephen F. Austin (-14), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Stand up and take notice of Stephen F. Austin, who, in Year One of Matt Braeuer, is currently 17-3 (10-1) Southland and is straight-up outplaying McNeese in Southland play despite having way less talent. Since December 1: #62 in America with a top-50 defense.

C Games

#17 Virginia (-7) at #82 Notre Dame, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Virginia took a brutal home loss to UNC at the weekend that I guess should cause some mild worry, but...no? It's still a UVA team that's played like a top-15 group season-long and a top-10 team over the last two months. Sometimes losses are as simple as "my opponent shot 10-22 from 3 while I shot 8-27." (They also forced approximately no turnovers.) I believe they're fine.

#75 Providence at #10 UConn (-16), 7:30 PM ET, TNT. It feels like the Kim English Era is nearing its end, which is a bummer, because I do believe a good coach is in there. There's very real talent on this roster, and to his credit, this is the same UConn team the Friars were very close to beating at home a few weeks back. Above all, I am curious to see if they let go of the rope here or not. It's been a season of infinite adversity, and at some point, said rope is bound to slip without wins to slow the bleeding.

#183 UMass at #86 Miami (OH) (-11), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. Miami (Yes That Miami) has been very lucky this year. You don't get to 20-0 without luck, ever. Sometimes you go 7-0 in games decided by single digits. But: I do believe that Miami (YTM) is playing better as the season goes on. You can either split out the games since Peter Suder got fully healthy (64th nationally, two spots ahead of Baylor) or the games since Evan Ipsaro got hurt (47th). Either way, I would wager their ranking of 87th is perhaps underselling their accomplishments.

#56 Missouri at #19 Alabama (-11), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. After adding a professional basketball player to his roster, Nate Oats and his band of TI-83s dressed as humans were still unable to defeat Tennessee, coached by a sentient Bible, at home. Now, would a less biased writer inform you that Alabama was down two starters and were only favored by three points? Maybe. Not me, though.

#76 Grand Canyon at #67 Nevada (-5), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. The Mountain West race remains wide open, and while I'm not terribly convinced either of these teams are worthy of full consideration, they're each better than I personally anticipated this year.

#46 New Mexico (-6) at #121 UNLV, 11 PM ET, CBSSN. Meanwhile, I'm going to put out my call here. If you work for New Mexico, are a fan of New Mexico, or are associated with New Mexico in any way, please email statsbywill (at) gmail as soon as possible. I would like to acquire one of these cups and will pay you the equivalent of a new book at Barnes and Noble, plus any shipping costs.

Wednesday, January 28

A Games

NCAAW: #22 Washington at #15 Maryland (-6.5), 7 PM ET, BTN+. I wish this game was on real television, but you can't always get what you want. This Maryland team is awesome and I think enough people know it at this point, but Washington has consistently lurked in the background of an absolutely stacked Big Ten race the entire year and is legitimately quite good. (The league will likely have 12 NCAA Tournament teams, of which Washington - 22nd at Torvik - may be 9th or 10th in terms of seeding.)

To win, they have to do something very few can do against Maryland: score 30+ points in the paint. Washington is 14-1 when they get to that number and 1-3 when they don't, which is worrisome when the Terps have allowed 30+ just five times all year. The Huskies have scaled up well this year and generally play up to their competition, but this may be too tall of a task.

#20 Tennessee (-1) at #33 Georgia, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Delayed from Tuesday due to a winter storm, this one should be a lot of up-and-down fun if both teams play into their offensive strengths. I don't know that Tennessee wants to play another transition-heavy battle so quickly after winning a transition-heavy battle over Alabama on Saturday, but an extra day of rest can't hurt, and honestly, the less time Tennessee has to think on offense the more I seem to like what they're running.

Historically, the Rick Barnes/Mike White crossover games have almost entirely gone Barnes' way, with Barnes 11-2 against White and putting up at least 1.09 PPP in eight of the 11 wins. The beatings have extended to White's Georgia run (3-0 with a total MOV of +53), and I can imagine White will be hyper-motivated to get this one. It's an interesting two-way spot. Tennessee just got a potential season-altering win on Saturday; Georgia went from having a halftime lead over Texas to losing by 20 and they have Texas A&M off of a week-long break looming Saturday. I'm looking entirely at defensive pace here. Whoever causes longer possessions likely wins this game; given Tennessee's defensive bonafides I trust them to do that more frequently.

#87 Illinois State at #90 Murray State (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a potential MVC regular season title eliminator. Both of these teams are very likely to finish top-4 in the league, but Illinois State is down to just a 14% chance at a share of the MVC title after their loss to Belmont, and Murray's shock 0-2 week has dropped them down to 38%. It's now Belmont who's trying to run away with the league.

Illinois State getting off the ground and forcing Murray into a three-game tailspin requires the Redbirds to flex their muscles in their best attribute: defensive rebounding. This team is #8 in America in DREB%, which is highly, highly important against a Murray team that is 10-1 this year with the lone loss by five to UNI when they get a third or more of their missed shots back. If ISUred forces a lot of one-shot possessions, make or miss, it creates a game script that slants their way.

B Games

#50 USC at #21 Iowa (-9), 7 PM ET, BTN. USC pulled off an absolutely monster road win at Wisconsin yesterday, which likely won't affect Wisconsin too much but is absolutely massive for the Trojans. A season that was in a tailspin is now temporarily right again, and amazingly, it's totally plausible this husk of a team could eventually be in the First Four. Do you want that? Do we want that? I don't know, but if you feel a certain way with your response, you may have your "who do I root for" answer here.

NCAAW: #36 Iowa State at #26 Texas Tech (-6.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Speaking of tailspins: Iowa State women's basketball. A pair of home wins over two of the Big 12's four worst teams isn't much to sway me from my view, which is that these ladies have almost entirely run out of gas and are attempting to sustain enough fumes to get to the Tournament as a 9 seed or whatever. They don't play like a Tournament team, and it seems that teams have largely opted to tell Audi Crooks to beat them 1-on-5. Interested to see if anything changes here.

#37 Texas at #25 Auburn (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. A little pat on the back for calling out Good Auburn recently, maybe before their game against Arkansas? I don't recall. They're clearly good now, and a 69% (per KenPom) chance at moving to 14-7, 5-3 SEC with roughly 6.5 players that should ever see the floor for a decent SEC basketball team is not a bad year at all for Little Steven.

#7 Houston (-5) at #49 TCU, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. On paper, this should be a nothing game that Houston wins in pure revenge after what I'm sure Kelvin feels was the most annoying loss in the world to Texas Tech Saturday. (Guys, they're fine. Sometimes your opponent makes 11 of their first 20 threes.) This has a lot of markings of a Houston staple, which is slowly choking the life out of an opponent until they win 72-61.

BUT. For whatever reason, TCU's defense has been a frequent annoyance for Houston. In three games against each other, Houston has yet to top 67 points against Jamie Dixon. This has only resulted in the one 68-67 loss, largely due to TCU shooting 8-15 from 3 out of nowhere, but TCU's aggressive perimeter defense seems to really rattle Houston.

#101 San Francisco at #43 Santa Clara (-9), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. Well, I hear that you would like more mid-majors in your NCAA Tournament field. I hear this is a thing you would like. If so, it is in your best interest to root for Santa Clara to win this game by 20. I have nothing at all against San Francisco, a team I always like and want to win games, but this one is for the greater good of the sport. The Broncos must win, and they must win by a lot. They must get to Valentine's Day, when they host Gonzaga, at 22-5, 13-1 WCC. Nothing less is acceptable.

C Games

NCAAW: #77 San Diego State at #81 Colorado State (-2), 1 PM ET, MWN. As of now, this is some fun day hoop. San Diego State can full-on run away with the Mountain West if they win this. They'd be favored to go 18-2 on average, which is a remarkable run regardless of your conference strength. UNLV can throw a wrench in this plan later on but if won't matter if the Aztecs get away here.

NCAAW: #69 Troy (-4) at #126 Marshall, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. The Sun Belt title race on the women's side is pretty great. All of Georgia Southern, Arkansas State, Troy, and James Madison are currently projected to go 14-4...with Marshall lurking at 13-5. This is a super important game, because the ladder format also exists on the women's side, and if you finish 5th instead of 4th you have to win two extra games to win the auto-bid even if you might actually be the best team here.

#52 Baylor at #59 Cincinnati (-2), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I'll be real here: I put this in here last Friday morning when sketching out the Week 13 Watchlist and I'm not sure why I did that. Do Baylor or Cincinnati fans find themselves wanting to watch this game?

#131 Davidson at #78 George Mason (-8), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. The Atlantic 10's cannibalizing that happens every single season finally got George Mason this weekend, as they lost to Rhode Island. Torvik has accordingly downgraded them to all of a 5% shot to make the Tournament, which I simply do not agree with, but whatever, it's one source. Still, it's inarguable for me that if Mason wants to get in I don't think they can afford to finish any worse than 26-5 in the regular season. Maybe 27-4.

#55 Butler at #23 St. John's (-10), 7 PM ET, Peacock. The St. John's equation this year is pretty funny to suss out: they are 1-4 against top-25 offenses and 14-1 against everyone else. (The lone win was against a Baylor team headed for the NIT.) Butler is 61st. They got to enjoy shooting 41% from 3, 55% from 2, and 83% from the FT line against SJU the first time around...and lost by 14 at home, because Butler lost the turnover battle by 16. I don't anticipate that severe of a beatdown there, but SJU is becoming a dominant defensive shot volume team overall, and this seems like a nightmare matchup for Butler.

#127 Oakland (-4) at #222 Purdue Fort Wayne, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Oakland! What a fun team. This has been a super up-and-down series, with the teams splitting the last ten matchups. There's no rhyme or reason to why either team wins (they're both .500 at home) and no identifiable trends anywhere. I throw my hands up and await a bizarre result.

NCAAW: #2 UCLA (-20) at #37 Illinois, 7 PM ET, BTN+. UCLA appears unbeatable to my eye at this point. Their one loss was, again, against a Texas team in a game where I think UCLA had six players available. So: if you believe like I do that the NCAAW season may just be a collision course towards an eventual UConn/UCLA showdown, I can tell you that a quick silly simulation of the NCAA Tournament field at large gave around ~42% odds of this game actually happening, which is extremely high for any individual matchup. The next highest one is a UConn/South Carolina rematch.

NCAAW: #45 BYU at #31 Oklahoma State (-9.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Perhaps not smart of me, but I can't quit this Oklahoma State team. They're just so fun on offense! Sue me. Plus, they've finally begun to accumulate some good wins.

#79 Stanford at #39 Miami (FL) (-9), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. I like the Stanford story a lot and hope they make the future NCAA Tournament, because I like Kyle Smith. Here is one intriguing reason why: they've actually been better (58th) away from home than in home games (84th). I am intrigued by this because Miami No Longer That Miami is 55th at home this year despite some pretty extreme splits in their favor.

#11 Florida (-9) at #77 South Carolina, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Meanwhile, South Carolina...85th at home, and that's despite a +7% 3PT% delta. I'll once more note that if Florida makes jumpers with any consistency, they will win games like this by double digits and not break much of a sweat.

Thursday, January 29

A Games

NCAAW: #10 Vanderbilt (-3) at #29 Ole Miss, 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. This was at one point going to be the second half of an insane back-to-back for Ole Miss, hosting both Tennessee and Vandy at home in the same week...but then the Tennessee game got postponed due to Winter Storm Fran, so Vandy and only Vandy it is. It'll still be more than enough fun for all involved.

Ole Miss remains among the best in the nation at playing opponents straight-up defensively, refusing to ever send a second to a drive in their effort to eliminate all threes imaginable. This actually goes against Vandy's half-court offense, a very middle ball-screen based thing that attacks the paint to create kickouts and loves using the roller. I could see this going poorly for Vandy on that end, but then again, it requires an Ole Miss offense with just about zero backcourt involvement to attack through the paint against a Vandy backcourt that can and will force 20 turnovers. Ole Miss demolished Vandy in both games last year, but this Vandy team is much improved in 2026. Can they crack the code?

NCAAW: #12 Iowa at #16 USC (-0.5), 9 PM ET, Peacock. I write most of these Watchlists on Sunday afternoons, which means that this Iowa preview was written in the fourth quarter of their decisive demolition of Ohio State. Your average non-obsessive has likely forgotten about Iowa women's basketball since Caitlin Clark left campus, which is a shame, as this current Iowa team is quite possibly the best non-Caitlin team Lisa Bluder or Jan Jensen have ever had a hand in.

As mentioned last week, USC is 3-9 in games where they score fewer than 70 points, which is a real problem when it's happened 11 times in a season and when Iowa is your next opponent. The good news for USC: they scored 58 at Michigan yesterday (in a loss, but stay with me) through three quarters are going to play an Iowa team that has at least surrendered 70+ five times this year. How USC plans on winning the frontcourt battle against an elite Iowa frontcourt is beyond me, though, and USC started off yesterday's fourth quarter by scoring two points in the first 6:52.

B Games

NCAAW: #24 Alabama (-0.5) at #33 Georgia, 6:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Both of these teams should make the future NCAA Tournament, but neither may be much more than a 6 seed. I think that's fine, as this is a really intriguing tactical battle between two very good defenses and two spotty offenses. I normally feel best about picking the team with the more stable two-way half-court game, which is Alabama, but Alabama's drop coverage is highly susceptible to opposing backcourts that operate in the midrange, which has been Georgia's bread-and-butter for big portions of games.

NCAAW: #32 Mississippi State at #11 Tennessee (-11), 7 PM ET, SECN+. Tennessee will miss out on playing both halves of the Egg Bowl rivalry this week, but this is still a fun game for a Lady Vols group still undefeated in conference play. A conference title is unlikely, but Tennessee is up to 60% to secure a top-four spot in the SEC Tournament and a double bye.

#94 Liberty (-1) at #148 MTSU, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. This is the CUSA title game by another name. Liberty is well and truly clear of the field, and all this really does is determine if they win the conference by three games or four, but it's the best game remaining on the CUSA slate and is potentially fairly telling on how much the rest of the conference will have for Liberty in the conference tourney.

NCAAW: #7 Louisville (-6) at #35 Stanford, 8 PM ET, ESPN. This year's Stanford team is pretty interesting in one specific oddity: if they achieve a 7-point lead at any point of a game, it is over. In games where they've touched a 7+ point advantage, they are 12-0. In all other games, they are 3-5, and none of the wins are by more than six points.

#92 Hawaii (-1) at #114 UC Irvine, 11 PM ET, ESPNU. The odds are increasing that this is the game that will decide the Big West regular season title. Combined, the odds are ~95% that at least one of these two teams will be your Big West champion, and given UC Irvine lost on a buzzer-beater at Hawaii a couple weeks ago, that makes this game of two great defenses and two not-great offenses extremely important. The UCI stat to know: when they shoot 50% or better from two AND/OR generate 14+ assists, they're 85-21 since 2021. All other fixtures: 15-25. In the first Hawaii game: 41% and 6, and this strikes me as a tough matchup given how Hawaii operates on D. We'll see.

C Games

NCAAW: #18 Michigan State (-11) at #64 Purdue, 6 PM ET, BTN. I would argue that Purdue is probably out of any realistic Tournament prospects, but a surprise win against Indiana this weekend may change that. This would certainly change that, though a Purdue team that's 0-5 against top-20 opposition with the closest loss by 16 points does not inspire me.

NCAAW: #3 Texas (-23) at #53 Florida, 7 PM ET, SECN+. A special hat tip to the Texas Longhorns, who are pulling off a special thing in turnover margin. They're first in offensive TO% and eighth in defensive TO%. Exactly one high-major in the last 26 years of men's basketball - 2023-24 Houston - has done the same. That gives them a uniquely high night-to-night floor, even without much great shooting.

NCAAW: #6 Michigan (-19.5) at #58 Indiana, 7 PM ET, Peacock. Indiana is now 0-9 in Big Ten play and probably has a cooked goose as it pertains to March prospects, but they're not as bad as this suggests. They've played like the 14th-best team in the league adjusted for schedule. If they can ever figure out how to rebound a basketball or stop turning it over, they have potential.

NCAAW: #85 Quinnipiac at #50 Fairfield (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. This is for the MAAC title, which won't mean much to you, but it should. That's because this is a rarity for this level of low-major hoop: two top-100 teams at Torvik, either of whom would be a 12 seed in a couple months, both of whom could realistically win a Tournament game. I favor Fairfield because of an offense that's held up exceptionally well against better opposition, but the sample size isn't huge either way.

#257 UMBC at #211 Vermont (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. UMBC is the lone team with a chance at preventing yet another waltz to the America East title for Vermont. This is not the Vermont teams of years past and would almost certainly be a 16 seed if they win the AE conference tournament, but if you're of a certain age, Vermont's uniforms and overall style of play generates real nostalgia.

#98 FAU at #104 Memphis (-3), 8 PM ET, ESPN2. The American title race is over for Memphis, who now has just a 5% chance to win the league. Even Memphis lifers seem to be wavering on Penny Hardaway, though I did check on one of my favorite Memphis accounts to see how he's taking it. Predictably, not very well.

NCAAW: #8 Duke (-11.5) at #54 Miami (FL), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. Is Miami good or bad? This is a question without an answer, because they are perhaps the exact median of both the ACC and of high-major college basketball. They have one good win (at Virginia Tech), one bad loss (at home to Clemson), and every other result on the books was according to pregame expectation. So: what do I think about a game where they'll play a top-10 team at home and be double-digit underdogs? I do not anticipate that they'll win, but they very rarely get blown out, so it should be watchable.

#48 Washington at #5 Illinois (-13), 9 PM ET, FS1. Washington is 2-7 against top-50 opponents, which is admittedly better than I blindly guessed (0-7). The problem is the two wins being over USC and Ohio State, both of whom could miss the eventual NCAA Tournament. Against top 25s: losses of 8, 10, 17, and 10.

NCAAW: #30 Notre Dame (-4.5) at #49 California, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Notre Dame is tracking for a 7 or 8 seed, which makes for a really interesting discussion about Hannah Hidalgo. By any measurement you can find, she is one of the 10 best players in women's basketball. I would argue she is 7th at worst. And yet: one of the 5-10 best players in the sport may be wearing road uniforms in the Round of 64 if Notre Dame loses another game like this one. The only time this has happened this decade was Veronica Burton playing for Northwestern, and on the men's side this year, every top 5-10 player is currently on rosters that will achieve no less than a 5 seed. Is this meaningful? Not really, but I wanted to make sure you're aware of a weird rarity.

Friday, January 30

The Second A+ Game of the Week

#2 Michigan at #4 Michigan State (-1), 8 PM ET, FOX. Look, I'm sorry: no analysis here. If you have gotten this far, you are aware of why this is possibly the single best game of the season. You are aware that this is a frontcourt battle for the ages and an online battle between two fanbases that will never, ever, ever concede a point to the other. If you're not watching this, I have severe questions about your commitment to fandom of the sport. Alternately, you're a Saint Louis fan, which is an acceptable excuse.

A Game

NCAAW: #59 Columbia at #44 Princeton (-6), 6 PM ET, ESPNU. The odds of our readers being super-aware of what happens in Ivy League women's hoops isn't that high, so let me reintroduce you to Princeton, who is 17-1 with a top-25 offense and would be a 4 or 5 seed if the Tournament were seeded entirely by WAB/resume. They're the greatest chance the Ivy League has two or more teams in the field of 68 for the third straight season. If someone must join, it has to be Columbia, the Ivy's second-best team with the best scorer in the league, Riley Weiss. This is a great undercard to the above.

The Non-D1 Game of the Week:

D3: #3 Emory (-5) at #19 Washington U (St. Louis), 6:30 PM ET, Flo Sports. If you are unfortunate enough to be signed up for the misery of Flo Sports, you should tune in for this. The D3 race was thrown into a tizzy by Trinity (CT)'s shock loss over the weekend, and Emory (along with Randolph-Macon) are both likely candidates to push Trinity for the championship this year. WashU could play spoiler, though, with a top-10 offense and an extremely battle-tested roster. Should be fun!

B Game

#80 Dayton at #24 Saint Louis (-12), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. Dayton fans are once again out on Anthony Grant, which means it is time for the yearly question: is Anthony Grant good? One Tournament bid in nine years says probably not, but how much different is his life and the program's life if the 2020 NCAA Tournament simply happens? I'm not saying that Dayton would have needed to make the Final Four, yet if Dayton just gets to the Sweet Sixteen as a likely 1 seed, that would have given Grant the second-most Tournament wins (Archie) by any Dayton coach since Don Donoher in the '80s. As a SLU lover this year, I must also note Grant has covered seven of his last 10 games as a 5+ point road underdog.

C Games

#143 Kent State at #54 Akron (-12), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. At this point, this is probably for runner-up to Miami (OH), but hey, still important. I explained my Miami theory earlier, so here is my Akron theory: they may actually be better despite losing to Miami. Torvik has them up to 50th, and since shifting to a new starting lineup for MAC play, they've played at the level of the 45th-best team in the sport.

#75 Providence at #28 Villanova (-10), 7 PM ET, FS1. Only notable if Providence wins. I think of Providence a lot like I would this year's Dallas Cowboys: despite the fact I should know better, I find myself compelled to root for them in nearly every game because of how good they are at making every game watchable. This is not often rewarded in basketball and I wish it was.

#62 Boise State at #76 Grand Canyon (-2), 9 PM ET, FS1. Guys, once you get this low on the list, the games have one feature: they're on and they're decent.