Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out yesterday‘s top performances and today’s Watchability Index.
Before we start, a note: we believe all of these game times are updated and accurate. It's a moving target of a weekend, so we apologize if one is inaccurate.
Saturday, January 24
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#4 Houston at #19 Texas Tech (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN.
In a rare moment of letting the General Public decide our fate, I put this weekend's A+ Game up to a vote. The voters have selected Houston/Texas Tech, which I am frankly thankful for, as this is indeed the most appetizing fixture of the weekend. I almost think that #4 at #19 (#6 at #12, per AP) may undersell it a little. Since Feast Week ended it's #1 at #8, and yes, this is you learning in real time that the Houston Cougars have played like the best team in America since December 1, not Michigan. Citation needed? Argue with Bart, not me.
Since Grant McCasland got to Lubbock these games have oscillated between Houston blowout and coin-flip madness, and if I'm telling you to go one route or another I would lean the second. The story of these games (four to Houston, one to TTU) has been turnovers. In all five games, Houston has won the turnover battle, and the only game it was close at all was not coincidentally the one Texas Tech won in overtime.
The Houston ball pressure can cause even the best of guards to panic a bit, and in the first battle this year, it pushed Christian Anderson into his single worst performance of the season: 7 points on 3-11 shooting and 3 turnovers, including a brutal missed three with TTU leading 59-57 that led to a Houston three and the end of Texas Tech's final lead of the night. In fact, point guards have been the causes of real frustrations for Texas Tech in these games; all five times Houston has played TTU, the main ball-handling Red Raider has had at least three turnovers.
If you assume like I do (barring officiating goofs) that JT Toppin is a given, Tech's path to a win and finally getting past the Houston horrors is a huge Anderson game for the first time of his career against Houston. You may remember Anderson making a couple of big threes against UH last year in the surprise road win, but that was after a 10 point (2-8 shooting) day. Against Houston in three games, he's 7-30 from the field. For a team with the lethal, powerful P&R offense Tech has, Anderson has to have his best game by far against Houston in his two-year career to win. - Will Warren
A Games
#86 Illinois State at #65 Belmont (-5), 12 PM ET, ESPN+.
This went from being part of a very pedestrian Sunday slate to now living alongside the rest of a monster Saturday first half slate thanks to Fake Snowmageddon. For those unfamiliar, here in Tennessee, we have been expected to get anywhere from 1"-24" of snow for the weekend. It appears we may get to 4". Sounds about right. Anyway!
Considering Illinois State has most of the same roster as it did last year, it's educational and good news to look at last year's three games these two played against each other, which produced two absolute classics in the regular season. Belmont beat ISU at home, 99-97; Illinois State defeated the Bruins at home, 81-78. If we get another round-robin like that, we're in business.
For Belmont to defend home court the way they're more than capable of, I've got to see them exploit ISU's better-than-expected-but-still-nothing-special rim protection. The super-drop the Redbirds play to take away direct rim attacks has been generally good, but once you actually get to the rim, you can score on them pretty well. Belmont was terrific last year at scoring through the post and set season records against ISUred (16 points; no one else above 12) thanks to getting guys like Brigham Rogers open on post pins with surprising frequency:
This is where the game is decided to me, along with your usual question of how many threes Belmont hits. How real is this rebuilt Belmont frontcourt, both offensive and defensive? If they're as legitimate as the stats indicate, they could win this running away. - Will Warren
#26 Villanova at #11 UConn (-9), 12:30 PM ET, FOX.
For as good as UConn's resume is, one total loss, by four, against No. 1 Arizona, without two starters, the Huskies really haven't played that well of late, especially offensively. For the season as a whole, UConn has only cleared 1.15 points per possession against two power conference teams this season - Xavier and Providence - and that is no serious feat all things considered.
Since an explosive 3-point display at Providence, the Huskies are just 14-58 (24%) over their last three games, and had an uncharacteristic 22% turnover rate against DePaul, and 26% turnover rate against Seton Hall. While UConn's monstrous rim defense and elite 3-point denial and isolation-heavy defense has kept the team's winning ways going, they also aren't top two in the down Big East in offensive or defensive rebounding, a usual calling card of a Dan Hurley team.
All this to say, UConn isn't playing up to its capabilities despite winning games. Villanova is the highest-ranked opponent UConn has played since Florida way back on Dec. 9, and it isn't even close. The Wildcats are up 26 KenPom spots since the start of the season in large part due to offensive rebounding and 3-point shooting, two things the Huskies should be able to take away.
This will be a good litmus test for UConn as they continue to coast through Big East play. Keep Duke Brennan off the boards, Acaden Lewis out of the paint, and limit Bryce Lindsay catch-and-shoot opportunities, and UConn should walk out with an impressive, and relatively easy win. But if the 3-point shot continues to evade the home team, Kevin Willard's Wildcats can continue to do something they've done all season - compete against teams far more talented than them. - Matthew Winick
#8 Illinois at #7 Purdue (-3), 3 PM ET, FOX.
Move over, 4th of July – this is the true fireworks show. Two of the top three offenses in the country square off in West Lafayette on Saturday, with Illinois having recently overtaken Purdue for the top honors in the country (per KenPom).
Both teams have clear routes to high efficiency here. Purdue’s Braden Smith-led attack can pick on Illinois’ deep drop, as the Illini’s decision to bring in Cam Crocker from Colgate has not noticeably changed their defensive footprint. They remain a team of extremes: dead last in the country in forced turnover rate, tops in the nation in free throw rate. Even with the coordinator change, the Illini leverage their immense frontcourt in a conservative scheme to keep foes out of the paint.
That should allow Smith to feast in the midrange, particularly after his lackluster effort at UCLA on Tuesday. Smith lit up the Illinois for 18 points, 12 assists and nine rebounds in the regular season finale last year, and the similar scheme will again let him live in the midrange. If he can hit a couple pull-up triples, it will force Illinois to extend its scheme. Last year, Smith went a disappointing 2/9 from deep against the Illini, but he ranks in the 86th percentile in dribble jumper efficiency this year – letting him fire away is tempting fate.
That is particularly deadly with Kylan Boswell out with injury. He’s the Illini’s on-ball blanket, shadowing the opponent’s best creator around ball screens while their bigs sink back in the paint. Without Boswell, Brad Underwood and Illinois must make a conscious choice on what they will allow: infinite Smith pull-ups, or risk him spraying the ball to shooters.
Fortunately for the Illini, they can score with the lethal Boilermaker attack. Underwood has emphasized shooting from his frontcourt, and the quartet of the Ivisic twins, David Mirkovic, and Ben Humrichous are all legitimate volume threats from deep. That allows Illinois to attack foes in five-out alignments, giving Andrej Stojakovic and Keaton Wagler plenty of room to drive into gaps. Stojakovic exploded against Maryland (30 efficient points), and Purdue’s utter lack of wing size/athleticism hints at another monster scoring effort.
If either team can manufacture consistent stops (or if either team goes ice cold from deep), it will swing this matchup in a severe way. Purdue is dealing with long travel (coming back from playing in LA), but off a loss, expect Matt Painter to have the Boilers dialed. This should be a hyper-efficient shootout as two Big Ten titans finally clash. - Jim Root
#23 Tennessee at #18 Alabama (-5), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN.
Just a good ol' fashioned SEC battle here, folks. Nothing out of the ordinary! In all seriousness, you people have heard more than enough about the off-court stuff with new/old Alabama big man Charles Bediako, so let's focus on the floor.
There is a case to be made that Bediako is the best big man defender Oats has ever coached. Oats' best defensive team ever was the 2022-23 squad that was third in defensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage defense, and first in 2-point percentage defense. And Bediako was not only the team's starting center, but he led the team in blocks by 33, and posted a 95th% defensive on/off net rating along with being EvanMiya's No. 3 defender in the entire country. Not bad.
So yeah, having Bediako as a depth piece behind underratedly excellent Aiden Sherrell will help the Crimson Tide. One area Bediako did struggle with a little was the defensive glass, with a negative defensive rebounding rate on/off for an average Alabama unit on that end back in his day. That has been a massive problem for this year's team as their 288th-ranked defensive rebounding rate is fourth-worst amongst power conference programs.
In comes Tennessee, the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country, fresh off two games with a combined 40 offensive rebounds, grabbing over 50% of their misses over that span. That said, the Volunteers are not capitalizing on the boards. They are shooting a very pedestrian 60% on offensive rebounding putbacks in SEC play, and team leader in rebounding rate Jaylen Carey is a horrific 42.4% at the rim in league games.
In other words, Tennessee's second chances are less of a big deal when Alabama is able to swat those putbacks into the second row. But on the flipside, Alabama is 0-4 against Top 50 teams when those squads grab over 41% of their misses, allowing at least 1.24 points per possession to all of them.
Of course we know all about Alabama's shotmaking, that may or may not be Aden Holloway-less, as he's questionable for the contest. Tennessee's defensive efficiency is the lowest it's been since before Charles Bediako was in college (sorry), and yet they're still due for negative regression on that end, per Shot Quality. This will be a battle between shotmaking and second chances, with a tiny little storyline intertwined in the middle of it all. - Matthew Winick
B Games
#12 Nebraska (-8) at #81 Minnesota, 12 PM ET, FS1.
This is it: the Last Stand. All Nebraska has to do is survive the Barn and they're 20-0 leading into the biggest week Nebraska basketball may see in school history: on the road at Michigan on Tuesday (27th), at home against Illinois on Sunday (Feb 1st). What could possibly stop them, other than Niko Medved, Cade Tyson, and the power of friendship?
So...about that! Minnesota's good. I don't know if you've heard. Since settling on their current starting lineup for the December 3 game against Indiana, they've played like a top-40 team in America, buoyed by a surprisingly good defense that slows the game down to a crawl and forces a lot of long twos. Post-ups are usually doubled, and the Gophers generally want to turn the game into a shooting contest. This means they give up a lot of dribble jumpers and floaters, but not much action directly at the rim.
As good as Nebraska's been in going from "just lucky and good" to "actually good, no luck needed" in the last ten games, they probably won't shoot 63% from two away from home forever. I'm also curious to see if Niko's most-movement-in-world-history offense is what cracks the code of a Nebraska defense that hasn't looked beautiful away from home and has yet to face a team as willing to cut and Princeton-ify a game like Minnesota. Per Jim and I's Putt Dialogue a few weeks ago, it appears Nebraska just has to make a 5 or 6-foot putt. Easy enough, unless it's the day it lips out after weeks of sinking 15-foot putts like they're nothing. - Will Warren
#33 North Carolina at #13 Virginia (-9), 12 PM ET, ESPN.
UNC’s much maligned defense, particularly their on-ball/ball screen coverage, finally got their collective heads above water against Notre Dame, who didn’t have their star ball screen creator to torch the Heels. Perhaps even more importantly is UNC didn’t get avalanched by threes from the Irish. In their 5 games prior, UNC’s opponents had made an average of 14 threes against them, which is truly absurd. ND went 8-25 and UNC enjoyed a positive 3PT differential for the first time in 2026, which will always help your defense look good. Virginia’s offense however is pretty far from the Fighting Irish, as the Cavs hoist the highest three point rate in the ACC, and while they don’t score a ton on the ball, Malik Thomas is very capable of torching UNC off the dribble, where he’s a 97th percentile scorer.
The real battle in this game however is UNC’s frontcourt combo of Wilson/Veesaar vs Virginia’s elite drop coverage and total rim denial/rim efficiency monster of Grunloh/Onyenso. We’ve seen Wilson really improve as a passer as he’s faced more and more doubles, but Ryan Odom is likely to let Grunloh and Onyenso try to stop Wilson 1v1, as this is a defensive identity that very much wants to avoid help and rotation at all costs, which is why they’re the best 2PT and 3PT defense in the ACC, allowing just a 1st percentile catch and shoot rate and a 14th percentile rim rate. If Wilson can be mitigated (big if, even for this UVA frontcourt, who is a little lacking in the athleticism department, which Wilson can obviously exploit), UNC’s on-ball creation has been woefully lacking. Virginia’s spacing is going to be a definite issue for the Heels however, as they often miscommunicate in their switches in their ball screen coverage, but UVA’s offensive rebounding advantage in most games won’t be as strong vs the Heels. My inclination is that UNC’s road woes on the defensive end in ACC play continue, as the Irish were just a temporary fix from a matchup perspective. - Jordan Majewski
#27 Georgia at #41 Texas (-1), 1 PM ET, SEC Network.
Transition reliant Georgia’s two lowest transition rates in SEC play weren’t in their two slowest games possession wise (South Carolina and Missouri), but rather against Ole Miss and Florida, which were also their two league losses to date. Texas allows just a 10th percentile transition rate and held similarly transition heavy Texas A&M to their lowest transition rate of the season (good), but lost the game (bad). The Horns however did just allow 22 transition points to Kentucky, but really lost because they couldn’t hit a shot from the perimeter, and once again couldn’t stop fouling (an obscene amount of fouls for a team who is consistently in a pretty passive drop coverage). UGA meanwhile fouls at the league’s lowest rate despite a 99th percentile press rate, go figure.
First and foremost against Texas’ offense, you want to keep them off the rim. Sean Miller loves to ball screen, handoff, and isolate for his big wing creators Swain and Mark and roll/post up the efficient Vokietaitis. Georgia’s lack of size in the backcourt has been an ongoing issue in SEC play, and they’ve been attacked by bigger guards/wings from Auburn, Ole Miss, and of course Tommy Haugh had a field day for Florida. Georgia allowing an 80th percentile rim rate and seeing their rim efficiency plummet in SEC play is not ideal in this matchup.
On the other end, Texas’ passive ball screen coverage has tended to get torched by lead guards (to the tune of being the least efficient defense in the league), which will happen when you funnel a 99th percentile ball screen scorer rate with just a 28th percentile efficiency rating (per Synergy data). Mike White’s offense isn’t particularly ball screen heavy, but Blue Cain scores in the 93rd percentile in that regard, and Jeremiah Wilkinson can take over games off the dribble. I’ve been wrong on Georgia on a game by game basis probably more than any other P5 team, but I once again think this becomes a bit of a struggle for Georgia’s set halfcourt defense if Texas can keep the game there. - Jordan Majewski
#30 Auburn at #10 Florida (-10), 4 PM ET, ESPN.
Like almost every game they’re going to play, Florida has a big frontcourt/rim advantage over Auburn. Auburn’s defensive issues at the rim have even prompted former defensive coordinator Steven Pearl to zone at not insignificant rates this season, so they’re in turn allowing a 79th percentile unguarded catch and shoot rate, which SEC opponents have been cashing in nearly 40% of their triples against the Tigers. I will note that Auburn just allowed 9 (the single digit 9) rim points to Ole Miss, but that’s likely a more telling indictment of Chris Beard’s offense than Auburn’s rim defense. Florida of course isn’t shooting the 3 at an efficient clip, as they’re still sub 30% on the season despite some marginal improvement beyond the arc the past few games (although the Xavian Lee resurrection didn’t really materialize vs LSU as some thought it might after his clutch shooting against Vandy). Despite their lack of shooting, the Gators are so dominant at the rim and on the glass that they’re still the SEC’s most efficient offense, which is almost impossible to do as a sub 30% 3PT shooting team. Auburn has actually been the second best two-way rebounding team in the league however, and Pettiford can find ball screen/dribble offense vs a Florida defense that forces it, and the same is true for Hall winning some isolation matchups (flex cuts and screens are significantly down this year in Pearl the Younger’s first season guiding the offense). I don’t think Auburn matches up terribly here, especially in their ability to find mismatches offensively, but my concern is that Florida finding any jump shooting can really make this offense unstoppable, and Auburn’s defense certainly hasn’t traveled, falling from a top 40 unit at home to around 150th on the road. In many ways, this game reminds me of Auburn’s tilt vs Arizona, which didn’t go particularly well for the Tigers. - Jordan Majewski
#91 Murray State at #108 Northern Iowa (-1), 4 PM ET, CBSSN.
I elevated this one from the C-tier because it's important to the MVC race for one, but also because it's a very good game. No team has a wider Math Gap than Murray State enforces on a nightly basis, as the Racers lead America in total net points from 3 (+309). Do you know which team outshot them from three this year? It's exactly one, and it is...Valparaiso. That's how unusual it would be if it happens here.
Anyway, it may happen here. Northern Iowa is #2 in America in opponent 3PT% at 26.2% allowed, and while there's some obvious variance to that stat that isn't sustainable, UNI does force some of the most difficult threes out there. Opponents sits 307th in Assist Rate on threes and 336th in 3PT assist distribution, meaning that UNI forces more pull-up threes than anyone else in the MVC. This is notable here, because Murray State shoots 38.3% on catch-and-shoots...but 29.2% when pulling up from a dribble.
If UNI can turn this into the right kind of jump shooting contest, they can pull off a mildly surprising home win. It's the only way to win a math game that's heavily slanted in your opponent's favor night after night. - Will Warren
#42 LSU at #21 Arkansas (-9), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
No team has fully taken claim of the top spot in the SEC this season, and after a 93-68 victory over Vanderbilt on Tuesday, the Razorbacks will look to continue making the case that they belong in the conversation.
And this feels like a game that Arkansas needs to win if only to prove to themselves that they’re not a team vulnerable to sleepwalking through league play against lesser foes and on the road. It was a talking point in his post-game presser after their win over Vanderbilt.
Arkansas has been playing electric basketball in league play, leading the conference in effective field-goal percentage and playing at a pace only second to Alabama’s frenetic style. John Calipari’s team leads the conference in fastbreak points per game and averages 15.8 points off of opponents’ turnovers. They have the second-highest opponent turnover rate in the SEC.
LSU lead guard Dedan Thomas returned on Tuesday in the Tigers’ loss to Florida after missing the first 5 games of conference action. Thomas led the team in scoring in the nonconference part of their schedule, but was just 1 for 8 from the field in his first action back. Bud Walton isn’t exactly the ideal place to continue knocking rust off and getting your legs under you.
Matt McMahon is coaching for his job and the Tigers’ season is arguably on the line. Add in that LSU likes to hunt for looks in the interior and inside the three-point line and that Arkansas has struggled with 2-point defense all season… things might be a little harrier than expected for stretches of this one. But the depth, home court advantage and trends of these two teams loom too large not to think the Hogs take another step towards SEC contention. - Tuck Clary
#122 UC Irvine at #104 UC San Diego (-3), 10 PM ET, ESPN+.
UC Irvine is hunting revenge after a crushing loss in the Big West title game last March. That ended up being Russell Turner’s (and UC Irvine’s) best team ever, per KenPom, but a top 40 UC San Diego squad was too much to overcome. The visiting Anteaters return their coach and several key rotation pieces, while UCSD is essentially a brand-new team after coach Eric Olen left for New Mexico.
Both teams’ identities are largely the same, though. UCSD made a continuity hire in Olen assistant Clint Allard, and he has deployed a high-level spread ball screen attack to bear. Both rotational centers, Bol Dengdit and Leo Beath, capable of stepping out beyond the arc (though former Portland Pilot Dengdit is better inside). And like his former boss, Allard mixes in zone on defense to keep opponents off balance.
Irvine, meanwhile, remains one of the best rim defenses in the entire country. This is no accident (direct your eyes to the far right):
That’s a decade straight of making it nearly impossible to score inside (and that pattern goes back even further under Turner). The Anteaters have a massive frontcourt led by starters Kyle Evans (6-10) and Eli Chol (7-0), with Nes Emeneke (6-10), Akiva McBirney-Griffin (6-9) and Harrison Carrington (6-7) lying in wait off the bench.
Irvine’s offense has been a problem, as Derin Saran has struggled to knock down jumpers after boomeranging back from Stanford, and rookie guards Tama Isaac and Jovan Jester are somewhat limited offensively. Irvine’s 351st-ranked 3PA rate and 189th-ranked O-Reb rate do not bode well against UCSD’s zone, and the Anteaters unsurprisingly score in the 19th percentile against zone looks this year, per Synergy.
Irvine did win at UCSD last year, throttling the game into a 62-possession crawl and holding UCSD to 6/35 (17%) shooting from deep. I expect another low-scoring slog as both teams struggle to get easy baskets, but UCSD’s array of shooting (most notably sniper Alex Chaikin) could be the difference. - Jim Root
C Games
#70 Wake Forest at #3 Duke (-18), 5:45 PM ET, The CW.
Duke got a nice week off to recover from their first Bay Area trip, where they had absolutely no issues. Wake Forest’s defense can present quite a challenge however. The Deacs aren’t big in the frontcourt but they’re long and athletic positionally, which they effectively use to hedge the hell out of the ball screen and swarm the post/paint. This in turn requires strong ballhandling, spacing, and shooting to be efficient against Wake’s defense, none of which have really been Duke’s overwhelming strengths as an offense. Last year, we saw Duke really struggle with this scheme in Winston-Salem, turning the ball over at a 24% clip and shooting 9-32 from 3. That was the best possible scenario for Wake, and they still lost because they scored just .83 PPP. Additionally, this game is at Cameron Indoor where Wake hasn’t won since this guy was in uniform...
and Wake’s offense this season is once again one of the least efficient in the league, Dame Sarr has just been bracketing primary ball handlers lately
and when Nate Calmese is clamped, Wake really tends to struggle with streaky wing shooters and little to no frontcourt production. That said, Duke’s least efficient game of the season offensively came against Michigan State’s hard hedge. I think Wake can compete on the defensive end, but they’re going to get throttled on the glass and struggle to find ways to score consistently, and if Duke replicates a fraction of what they did to Wake’s defense in Durham in the second meeting last season, this will be a blowout and Cam Boozer might end up with a triple double as a back-down/defensive collapse creator like Cooper Flagg nearly did. - Jordan Majewski
#101 Georgetown at #64 Providence (-7), 12:30 PM ET, TNT.
At a certain point, the Ed Cooley Revenge Game may start to lose some luster. I thought it would be by now, but in Providence's most recent home game, you could hear a potent and loud "[forget] Ed Cooley" chant going as they defeated Creighton, who has no relation to Ed Cooley other than sharing a conference. It reminds me of how Michigan fans will start chanting Beat Ohio when they are playing Northwestern, which may say more about Northwestern than Ohio State.
Kim English is 4-1 in these Cooley Games, but both coaches need wins like they need air. Providence has become the rare team to go 0-4 in overtime despite leading in the final minute of all four games, which represents a stunning accomplishment. You could make a real and serious argument that, with any sort of luck at all, Providence is 12-7 or even 13-6 right now, and we'd have far less serious discussion about English's job status if that were the case.
The five crossover games have been simple: whoever shoots better wins. Obvious, but the lone Georgetown win was because they shot 10-23 from 3 and 23-28 from the line, not because of anything special they did or said. Providence has shot 38% from deep at the AMP; Georgetown, 28% away from home. - Will Warren
#22 St. John's (-8) at #87 Xavier, 1:30 PM ET, TruTV.
Rick Pitino is eyeing his 900th win on Saturday, and he’ll need to take down his son Richard Pitino to do so. The Red Storm comes to Cincinnati on a five-game winning streak, while the Musketeers try to get back to winning after a tough 94-93 loss, where they shot 56.9% from the field and 50% from three.
Xavier has continued to grow as a team throughout Big East play and has seemed to turn a corner after two tough losses to DePaul and Marquette. The expectations for effort that both Pitinos have for their players have been on display in the son’s club in conference play. Xavier has the highest defensive rebounding rate in the Big East and that effort in limiting second chance opportunities will be massive against the Johnnies.
St. John’s ranks second in offensive rebounding rate and first in 2nd chance points per game, while Xavier is ranked last in those two categories. How long sophomore center Jovan Milicevic stays on the floor against potential conference player of the year Zuby Ejiofor could tell the story for this game. Ejiofor is averaging 18.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game in conference action, with 5.9 of those points coming in second-chance opportunities and 4.1 of those rebounds being offensive rebounds.
More important than the milestone win for St. John’s would be continuing to hammer out their rotation as they look for the right accompanying pieces to Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Oziyah Sellers. The transfer duo Dillon Mitchell and Ian Jackson has been the biggest conundrum for this staff to figure out.
Mitchell had arguably his most impactful game in a Red Storm uniform against Seton Hall on Tuesday, scoring 17 points and adding 11 rebounds. This comes while Ian Jackson was unplayable against the Pirates after having an 18-point outing against Villanova the game prior. Getting consistency from that off-ball wing position will be vital for St. John’s to reach their best iteration by March. - Tuck Clarry
#39 Miami FL (-2) at #71 Syracuse, 2 PM ET, ACC Network.
Somewhat surprisingly, Miami is the team in strong NCAA Tournament at-large position, while Syracuse continues to chase the prize after several disappointing losses under possibly doomed head coach Red Autry.
One massive factor here is the potential for three-point regression. Since January 1st, Miami is one of the unluckiest teams in the country: per Bart Torvik, the Hurricanes rank 332nd in 3P% on offense (28.6%) and 344th in 3P% on defense (41.3%). On the other hand, Syracuse ranks 13th in 3P% on offense (41.3%) and 50th on defense (28.7%). A two-way flip of those numbers could immediately tilt the game to Miami.
Matchup-wise, though, the Canes could struggle against what has become a stout Syracuse interior defense. Mega-athlete William Kyle swats everything in sight, and possible pro Donnie Freeman bolsters the Orange athleticism. Miami plays through Malik Reneau on the block, so if he cannot score one-on-one, the Canes could be stuck banking on Tre Donaldson off the bounce.
Of course, Syracuse’s perimeter attack is an efficiency mud pit as well. JJ Starling, Naithan George and Kiyan Anthony have all struggled badly to put the ball in the basket in one way or another. Against the physically imposing guard duo of Donaldson and Tru Washington, Syracuse will struggle to generate quality looks.
The likely difference is Miami’s work on the offensive glass. Reneau, Ernest Udeh and Shelton Henderson anchor a squad that ranks 18th nationally in offensive rebound rate. Syracuse, on the other hand, ranks 262nd in defensive rebound rate (Kyle is prone to chasing blocks). - Jim Root
#58 West Virginia at #2 Arizona (-18), 2 PM ET, CBS.
West Virginia has played zero games over 68 possessions this season, while Arizona has played four games under 71 possessions. The Mountaineers are 360th in pace, and Arizona is 32nd. These teams want to play differently!
In previous years, it was established that in order to stop a Tommy Lloyd team, you had to muck it up in the halfcourt. Not any longer. The Wildcats are 4-0 in their "slow" games, with road wins at UCLA and UConn, and dominant wins against San Diego State and Cincinnati. While none of those contests had more than 138 total points, Arizona rolled.
That said, this West Virginia defense that stays at home, denies the rim, and is a good free throw-denying and defensive rebounding squad is probably the perfect scheme to slow down Arizona. They are smart, disciplined, and big in the frontcourt. They can hang on that end.
However, the Mountaineers have already played two other top five KenPom teams on the road in Big 12 play. That did not go well, to the tune of a 21-point loss at Iowa State and a 29-point loss at Houston. They did slow the game down, so there's that, but West Virginia had serious issues scoring with their lack of true on-ball scoring. That will surely be an issue here.
If you are a fan of lookahead spots, this is a huge one for Arizona, with a trip to face BYU on deck on Monday, with a very short, Big Monday turnaround. Still, there's no reason why the Wildcats shouldn't get an easy win in a style that was once a major roadblock for this program. - Matthew Winick
#56 Virginia Tech at #16 Louisville (-12), 2:15 PM ET, The CW Network.
Neo Avdalas continues to struggle vs almost any show/hedge on his ball screen, which is what Louisville is going to bring to the table defensively against him. In those cases, Mike Young has actually been using Ben Hammond as the primary ball screen operator, which more or less renders Avdalas moot as he isn’t really a shooter and he’s a mediocre at best defender. Tobi Lawal returning as a vertical threat in PNR certainly alleviates a lot of VT’s issues with hedge heavy defenses, and he’s provided significant offense in back to back games for the Hokies.
Speaking of significant offensive returns, Mikel Brown will be playing for the Cardinals. His minutes seem TBD, but he’s obviously been the missing piece in Kelsey’s drive and kick offense. Ryan Conwell is coming off a monster game against Pitt, but his efficiency has dipped without Brown’s gravity and downhill shot creation beside him (although those games Brown has missed has been better competition as well). The matchup is choice for Brown in his return, as VT has generally been blown by vs elite ball screen and dribble creators, but the minutes are the only concern. - Jordan Majewski
#46 UCF at #80 Colorado (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN+.
Two of the better middling teams in the Big 12 will square off and see which team will be so lucky to get in the win column after their individual losing streaks. The Knights had the pleasure of playing Arizona and Iowa State in back-to-back games and the Buffaloes have lost 4 straight since winning their first 2 games.
Colorado is still looking for the shooting efficiency they displayed throughout their nonconference schedule (55.7% effective field goal percentage, compared to 48.2% in Big 12 play). Tad Boyle’s team is coming off a 6-point loss to Kansas on Tuesday, where they were able to manufacture turnovers and earn second-chance opportunities.
For the Buffalo to end their losing skid, they will need to continue improving their rebounding, given the size of their frontcourt with 6-foot-11 Sebastian Rancik and 7-footer Bangot Dak. Whoever wins the rebounding battle will have the upper hand, but expect foul calls to have an even larger impact in this one. UCF and Colorado rank 13th and 16th in opponent free throw rate in Big 12 play.
And the Knights will need to take care of the basketball for them to feel comfortable on the road. Johnny Dawkins’ team had 19 turnovers in their 30-point loss to Iowa State on Tuesday night. They’re averaging 11.7 turnovers per game in conference play. - Tuck Clarry
#232 Saint Peter's at #210 Merrimack (-3), 3 PM ET, ESPN+.
St. Peter’s certainly avenged one of the more embarrassing offensive performances of last season when they scored 37 points in 59 possessions at Merrimack. This season, in the first meeting at the Yanitelli Center, the Peacocks posted 1.23 PPP, their most efficient offensive output of the MAAC season to date, by a wide margin. St. Peter’s scored 1.1 PPP in zone offense, and actually outzoned Merrimack, who scored just .71 PPP in 28 zone possessions. The Peacocks dominated from start to finish, and predictably made hay on the offensive glass, grabbing 52% of their misses, meaning there wasn't much flukiness to that win, the Peacocks more or less played their game. A few things I’m a little nervous about in the rematch for the Peacocks? Merrimack shoots 5% better from 3 at home, St. Peter’s 26.5% 3PT defense in MAAC play won’t last forever, and the free throw rate likely flips in the Warriors’ favor at home (and both of these teams draw a lot of contact and foul at a high rate in their extended zone pressure defenses). Merrimack is undefeated at home and 5-1/4-1-1 ATS in those 6 home games. - Jordan Majewski
#5 Iowa State (-10) at #66 Oklahoma State, 3 PM ET, Peacock.
The walls are closing in on the cowpoke of Stillwater now that they’re 2-4 in conference play after a 12-1 record to start out the season. Oklahoma State will look to shake off their Tuesday night loss to TCU, where they allowed a 10-0 closing killshot by the Horned Frogs in a game they lost 68-65.
The Cowboys are still looking for a Quad 1 win this season and Iowa State poses a shot to nab one at home. The Cyclones are looking to stop their two-game road losing streak this season, falling to Kansas and Cincinnati last week. TJ Otzleberger’s Iowa State team has not looked the same on the road, going from 1.32 points per possession in Ames to 1.09 points per possession as the away team.
The Cyclones' most recent win over UCF was the first time in Big 12 conference play that star forward Joshua Jefferson shot over 50% from the field after averaging 55.3% in nonconference action. Oklahoma State doesn’t provide much rim protection or resistance on attempts taken near the basket. Big 12 opponents are shooting 67.3% at the rim.
Iowa State won the first matchup between the two teams earlier this season, but Steve Lutz’s Cowboys were without Vyctorious Miller that night and the two teams did split the series in 2025. The Cyclones haven’t won at Gallagher-Iba Arena since an overtime cin in 2022. If Miller and leading scorer Anthony Roy can hit some outside shots and get Iowa State tilted, this could be a closer game than the two resumés suggest. - Tuck Clarry
#44 San Diego State (-5) at #117 UNLV, 4 PM ET, CBS.
For one, it's nice to see the Mountain West back on Big CBS. It gives me fond, beautiful memories of better days:
Thanks to a two-game swoon by Utah State and a re-rise to the top by the Aztecs, San Diego State is now favored to win the regular season title by Torvik, which is a pretty surprising turnaround based on what we would've thought two or three weeks back. If the Aztecs can do what they've usually done in the past - win a lot of games in Vegas - then they can fully assert control here.
Pastner teams are unusual evals for the analytics era because they're ISO-heavy and create more through the frontcourt than just about anyone, which is an interesting strategy against a San Diego State team allowing a 42% 2PT% since December 1 and one of the lowest opponent rim attempt rates in the sport. It's a very good defense even when opponents have managed to create positive 1-on-1 matchups. If UNLV is able to turn this into a free throw parade (my number for them would have to be no worse than 28 free throw attempts in this game), then they'll have the advantage, but otherwise it's gonna look like a lot of running into a brick wall unless Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn singlehandedly delivers the win. - Will Warren
D2: #4 Palm Beach Atlantic at #3 Nova Southeastern (-11.5), 4 PM ET, streaming.
I usually leave out non-D1 games from the Weekend Watchlist, because it's crowded enough as is. However, sometimes, one game will rise above the rest to demand an appearance, one so good and interesting that it was my first thought for a replacement once we lost High Point/Radford to Friday. Welcome to Florida's best rivalry.
For seemingly the 10th year in a row, Nova Southeastern is a serious threat to win the D2 title. Their lone loss? On the road at Palm Beach Atlantic last month, a game where Nova SE put up their second-worst points total of the year (a mere 83), got rocked on the boards and in the paint, and shot a season-worst 46% from 2. None of this sounds bad in a vacuum, but when you spend your season averaging north of 101 PPG and 56% from 2, PBA may have your number.
The problem: outside of that one game, Nova's been more trustworthy. PBA got rocked by Florida Southern, 101-85, on New Year's Eve and isn't coming close to running up the scoring margins the way Nova has. Plus, in the first game, Nova forced turnovers on 22% of PBA possessions and lost the turnover battle brutally.
Beyond that, though, this one's just fun to watch. How often this year will you see a game where the two teams involved average a combined 190 PPG? I think this game is either free or a small charge, so if you're snowed in...worse things to do. - Will Warren
#115 Utah at #14 BYU (-19), 5:30 PM ET, FOX.
Holy War, baby. This is not one of the more exciting editions of it, but in a sport that is actively invested in eliminating as many rivalries as possible as quickly as possible, we should celebrate the ones that still exist. Interestingly, I'm being told it's time to post more Jimmer highlights against opponents I'm writing about. Can't deny what the people want, especially audio mixer Kory.
The version of Utah that beat Mark Pope's final BYU team over two years ago was obviously better than this one, but the remnants of the philosophy that won them the game are replicable. For one, Utah essentially punted on offensive rebounds, typically sending no more than two down low and having both guards behind the half-court line before the ball even came down. It sounds absurd, but this strategy held BYU to their lowest transition point total of that season (4) and turned the game into a slow half-court battle where Utah simply got a couple more stops than the Cougars. I can't imagine that comes close to happening here short of the Utes hitting 12+ threes, but that's the path if it does. - Will Warren
#53 TCU at #48 Baylor (-5), 6 PM ET, ESPN2.
This one's for the slop kings. TCU and Baylor both need wins very, very badly. Neither would make the NCAA Tournament if it happened today. Both could do it, but both seem destined to be the type of teams that end up on a Next Four Out graphic in late February. If one of them elevates themselves to First Four Out status, this game could go a long way in getting them there.
This is the rare Big 12 crossover with a serious sample size. Since arriving in 2016-17, Jamie Dixon has made this a pretty good back-and-forth rivalry. Baylor's 10-8 in the 18 games played, but only five of those 18 have had a double-digit margin in either direction, and somehow, Baylor has managed to lose four times to TCU by exactly three points. The last seven games in this series, by margin of victory: 1, 4, 3, 8, 3, 3, 6. Will this be high-quality hoops? Well, no. Will it be close, tense, and make the loser feel really, really bad about themselves? Absolutely, and when you're iced in, few things are better to watch as a neutral. - Will Warren
#17 Kansas (-7) at #84 Kansas State, 8 PM ET, FOX.
A rivalry can make you throw a lotta things out of the window, and the potential of the favorite’s best player missing the matchup can make things even more enticing. But there’s a lot about this Kansas State Wildcats team you’ll need to forget to feel good about them taking down Kansas, even if it is being played in the Octagon of Doom where Kansas has dropped 3 straight.
Jerome Tang’s Wildcats have yet to prove to be good at any one thing. They rank towards the bottom of the conference in shooting, taking care of the basketball, rebounding and creating opponent turnovers. Star transfer guard PJ Haggerty’s heroics can only take a team so far and the news that second-leading scorer Abdi Bashir Jr. will be out for 4-6 weeks definitely won’t lessen that burden.
And despite the possibility that Darryn Peterson misses the game due to an ankle injury suffered on Tuesday, the Jayhawks’ size, defense and style of play are the exact things that have given the Wildcats fits all season. Kansas State is giving up an offensive rebounding rate of 37.6% in Big 12 play (for perspective, Arizona is second at 37.9%). They are also giving up a league-worst 18.3 second-chance points per game.
Kansas’ preference of keeping games in the halfcourt only hurts the Wildcats’ chances as well. Kansas State averages 8 more possessions in their games in conference play than Kansas, but to their own detriment, considering they’re giving up 1.17 points per possession. - Tuck Clarry
#63 Nevada at #45 New Mexico (-7), 8 PM ET, FS1.
On one hand, I will always and forever agree with Jordan Sperber when he makes a correct point.
I don't know who needs to hear this, but *full season* adjusted efficiency is more predictive of future performance than whatever smaller/recent sample you filter by
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) January 19, 2026
This is particularly relevant when I see people share items such as a team being very good, or very bad, in their last four games. Four games, sans overtime, is 160 minutes of content. You are judging a team based on nine minutes less content than Saving Private Ryan. Do you know how many other movies ol' Spielberg's made? A hell of a lot! (32, apparently.) You would not declare, one way or the other, if Sir Spielberg was a great or bad director based alone on Saving Private Ryan. You might know if he's one or the other, but you don't really know without additional context.
That being said, New Mexico is the 27th-best team in the sport over the last five weeks of play (320 minutes of content, so two Zodiacs), which coincides with Chris Howell going out for the season and Luke Haupt being elevated to the starting lineup. D2 up-transfer Haupt is not a high-usage guy, but his 3.9% Steal% in Mountain West play is sixth-best in the conference. With him starting, UNM's had a top-15 defense since mid-December and, with all preseason priors removed, a top-25 defense that's top-30 in opponent turnover percentage.
It makes this game against Nevada, an elite turnover prevention team that has a good offense almost entirely off of shot volume and free throws, really interesting. This is the 326th-best 2PT% offense taking on an excellent defense that will force a team who hates taking jumpers to take jumpers. And yet: if Nevada wins the shot volume battle as they frequently do, they could be right in this. It would be only slightly as surprising as New Mexico's entire season has been. - Will Warren
#105 San Francisco at #6 Gonzaga (-19), 8 PM ET, CBSSN.
America, get ready to learn the name Ismaila Diagne. With Braden Huff out indefinitely and Graham Ike very much questionable for this game, Gonzaga's third-string big man may have to take the reigns down low. For all we know, he may be the best defender ever. In the six career games where Diagne has played more than 10 minutes, Gonzaga's opponents are scoring an average of 0.75 points per possession, which is absurd. He also has 14 blocks across those contests. Who cares if only one of those games came against a Top 100 team.
Gonzaga did not need Ike or Huff's offense against Seattle or Pepperdine, but San Francisco will likely be a tougher challenge, even if it's been an up-and-down year for the Dons. San Francisco is steady - they control the glass, take smart shots, and allow difficult ones, but there have been more skilled and athletic teams in the Chris Gerlufsen era than this one. And while they have given Mark Few and Co. some scares over the years, San Francisco has not beaten Gonzaga since 2012.
That said, even with Huff and Ike, it has not been strictly smooth sailing for Gonzaga. They were tied at half with Santa Clara, and needed a major comeback and overtime to take down Seattle at home last month. A hot shooting game for Ryan Beasley and Tyrone Riley and Diagne failing to properly adapt to his new role against a superior team could make this a sneaky upset alert late on Saturday's slate. - Matthew Winick
Sunday, January 25
Yes, it's a pretty weak Sunday slate, as usual...on the men's side. On the women's? You're in for a treat:
- #17 USC at #6 Michigan (2 PM ET, BTN)
- #26 Ohio State at #15 Iowa (2 PM ET, Peacock)
- #7 Vanderbilt at #4 South Carolina (3 PM ET, ESPN)
The last of these in particular...my goodness. Now that's a game. Also, football. That exists. On with the remainder of the show.
A Game
#51 USC at #36 Wisconsin (-6), 4 PM ET, Peacock.
Welcome to college basketball, Alijah Arenas! After a terrifying offseason car accident and a torn meniscus, Agent Zero’s talented offspring finally debuted for the Trojans this week. For a team that lost Rodney Rice to injury, Arenas’ shot creation should have been a massive boost.
Arenas was clearly rusty, though, posting a disastrous 3/15 outing from the field in a home loss to Northwestern. The Trojans are trying to integrate both Arenas and midseason addition Kam Woods, and so far, that has been a net negative.
The problems could multiply against the white-hot Badgers, who have won five straight games, including three on the road (one at Michigan). The Badgers’ dribble creation with Nick Boyd and John Blackwell is wrecking foes, augmented by frontcourt spacing from Nolan Winter, Austin Rapp and Aleksas Bieliauskas. Greg Gard’s move to a ball screen attack in the last couple years has paid off in Wisconsin’s recent surge.
USC has to prove that any of the west coast Big Ten teams can win across the country. The Trojans got drilled by both Michigan and Michigan State in early January (combined losing margin: 59 points) before surviving at Minnesota in overtime. Another long road trip to face Wisconsin amid freezing Midwest temperatures could force the Trojans’ bubbling chemistry issues to surface.
USC has a clear edge via Ezra Ausar’s physicality in the post; the veteran interior scorer lives at the free throw line and laps Winter and Rapp with his mobility. Wisconsin likely lets him get his, though, and avoids allowing any of the Trojans’ complementary threats to get hot. Chad Baker-Mazara is a wild card after fouling out in 13 minutes against Northwestern. The gray bearded collegian can light up the scoreboard, but he has not been his best self recently, much to Eric Musselman’s chagrin. - Jim Root
B Game
#93 FAU at #76 South Florida (-5), 1 PM ET, ESPN2.
To start the season, "rim and 3" South Florida couldn’t get jump shots to drop, now they can’t miss, shooting 40% from 3 on massive volume over their last 4, where their only loss was a fluky comeback win by Wichita State. However, no one has hit jump shots against FAU in AAC play except Memphis of all teams, and you kinda have to hit jump shots against the Owls’ defense, as they’re legitimately dominant at the rim with the Pintelon/Williams duo making them an 88th percentile rim efficiency defense. That in turn allows them to heavily deny on the perimeter, allowing just a 20th percentile catch and shoot rate.
Offensively FAU is one of the more prolific PNR offenses in the country, with their strength in that regard being the efficiency of Williams and Pintelon as rollers/poppers. The deficiency comes from the fact they don’t have a true PG and consistent ball screen operator. Which isn’t to say Devin Vanterpool and Kanaan Carlyle haven’t been effective, they’ve just been inconsistent, and USF’s drop coverage (after experimenting with more aggressive ball screen coverages inspired by Tobin Anderson, the Bulls have primarily been dropping Nelson) often necessitates an efficient ball screen scorer. Ultimately I think FAU’s strong rim and 3 denial defense keeps them more than competitive in this game. - Jordan Majewski
