As we are now in the last week of regular season play for most conferences, I am taking one last look conference by conference and figuring out who is closing in on winning their regular season conference title, as well as the very valuable conference tournament #1 seed (more valuable in some conferences than others, looking at you, WCC). There are a few conferences that have clinched both the top seed and the regular season title, so those conferences will get minimal verbiage!
I'll take a quick look at each of the 31 conferences in the order they are listed on BartTorvik, so if you are interested in any specific conference or team at the top of a conference, please feel free to CTRL+F now!
This week, instead of neglecting teams who have a small shot at winning, I will be including everyone who still has a shot at the #1 seed...even if it's less than a 1% chance!
Let's get after it.
Atlantic 10
Rhode Island: 15-1
George Mason: 14-2
Richmond: 13-3
With Richmond's two losses last week, they now have no shot to win the #1 seed. However, they can still win a share of the Atlantic 10 regular season title if Rhode Island drops both of their games. The path for George Mason to the #1 seed is simple: Win both of your games and hope that Rhode Island loses both. A share of the conference title is very much in play in the Atlantic 10 this year given that there is still one game remaining between these three teams.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-25: Rhode Island @ Richmond
2-25: Saint Joseph's @ George Mason
2-28: George Washington @ Rhode Island
The path for Rhode Island to secure the top seed is pretty straightforward, as they control their own destiny. If they go 2-0 this week, they are the A10 champion and the #1 seed in the conference tournament. If they go 1-1 this week, they are the #1 seed, and they'll share the A10 title with George Mason (provided George Mason goes 2-0). This has a chance to get a bit rocky, but upsets would certainly need to happen if Rhode Island wants to drop the #1 seed with a 95.3% chance to win it right now.
ACC
Duke: 15-1
Louisville: 14-2
Louisville and Duke both lost this past week, which was no help to Louisville's chances to secure the top seed in the conference tournament. However, Duke losing did open the door for Louisville to still have a chance to grab a share of the conference title even though they only have a 4.2% chance of getting the top seed.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Louisville @ Georgia Tech
3-1: Duke @ North Carolina
3-1: Notre Dame @ Louisville
Similar to the A10, the path is clear for Duke. Take care of business against Florida State and then beat North Carolina on Sunday. If they do that, they win the ACC outright and gain the #1 seed. For Louisville to have a chance at sharing the ACC title, they will need to hope that Duke loses to North Carolina on Saturday and that they go 2-0 themselves. I am expecting a win over Florida State by Duke on Thursday, and a Duke win would clinch the top seed at that point in time.
America East
Vermont: 12-3
Binghamton: 10-4
Maine: 10-4
Vermont lost a game last week to UMBC after beating them on the road previously by 22 points. This week, they have just one game. It's against UMass-Lowell, a team that they previously defeated by 36 points. Don't trip up, and the #1 seed and America East outright title is yours.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Albany @ Maine
2-26: Binghamton @ New Hampshire
2-28: Binghamton @ Maine
If Vermont does end up losing in the biggest upset of the season, both Binghamton and Maine will need to have a 2-0 week to share the title. By virtue of a head-to-head matchup, only one team will stay standing. If there does end up being a tie at the top of the America East between Vermont and another team, there will be quite a few tiebreakers in place that will be determined by games that don't involve either of these three teams. All I can say now is that Vermont has a 96.1% chance to get the outright conference title and the #1 seed, and I expect them to do so.
Atlantic Sun
Eastern Kentucky: 13-3
Jacksonville: 12-4
Central Arkansas: 11-5
Stetson: 11-5
Eastern Kentucky should have had the conference title and #1 seed locked up this past week but lost both of their games to fall to 1-3 in their last four games. It hasn't given them a huge hit to their chances of securing the #1 seed in the conference tournament, as they still have a 96.8% chance to win the top seed. But now, due to their mini free fall, there are two other teams who can secure the top seed, while there are four who can share the Atlantic Sun title. Central Arkansas can share the Atlantic Sun title but cannot win the #1 seed due to tiebreaker scenarios. Regardless of any other result this week, if Eastern Kentucky can beat Austin Peay on Wednesday or Bellarmine on Friday, they will lock up both the Atlantic Sun and the #1 seed.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-25: Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay
2-27: Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky
I'm going to recycle what I said last week because, quite frankly, there is no way Eastern Kentucky goes 0-2 again: "Win one of these, and Eastern Kentucky locks up the #1 seed and the conference title no matter what anyone else does."
American
Rice: 14-0
East Carolina: 12-3
The American still has two weeks of play left, but the conference race is all but locked up. Rice would have to drop four games in a row, while East Carolina would need to win every game the rest of the season. Rice has a 99.9% chance to lock up the top seed in the conference tournament at this point and needs to be 2-2 over their final four games if East Carolina does win three games in a row to end the season. It's a long stretch for East Carolina to swipe the top seed, but they do have a 0.1% chance of doing so...but they have to be perfect and hope Rice isn't, as Rice does hold the tiebreaker.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-25: East Carolina @ Memphis
2-25: Rice @ Temple
2-28: Charlotte @ East Carolina
If Rice beats Temple, they will have locked up a share of the American title. East Carolina must go 2-0 in these two games if they want any shot at winning a share of the conference title this season. It's a razor-sharp edge because Rice has to trip up multiple times in the last two weeks, and they haven't yet this season.
Big 10
UCLA: 17-0
UCLA has clinched the #1 seed and the outright Big Ten regular season title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Big 12
TCU: 13-3
Baylor: 13-4
West Virginia: 12-4
Texas Tech: 11-5
Colorado: 11-5
The Big 12 is kind of still a mess in terms of potential outcomes; however, TCU has a 96.5% chance to grab the top seed in the conference tournament. They also have a 0.5% chance to end up as the #5 seed. If TCU beats Cincinnati this week, they will all but clinch the top seed in the conference tournament, as it would give them a 99.8% chance to secure it with a game against Baylor to come at the end of the season.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-25: Cincinnati @ TCU
3-1: TCU @ Baylor
The only thing cut and dry about the conference title race is this: TCU needs to go 2-0 to lock in the #1 seed and an outright title, or TCU can lose to Cincinnati and beat Baylor to clinch the #1 seed. There is a way that West Virginia can still take the top seed and a share of the title, but that would need many very specific results to happen. Baylor can also win the top seed and a share of a conference title with a win over TCU, but that would also need various tiebreakers to shake out this week. Let's not make this too much of a mess, but it is kind of hilarious to know that TCU could be the #1 seed or the #5 seed by this time next week and that Texas Tech could either be the #2 seed or the #8 seed.
Big East
UConn: 18-0
UConn has clinched the #1 seed and the outright Big East regular season title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Big Sky
Idaho: 14-1
Montana State: 13-2
Here's what I wrote last week: "Both teams should have two games where they are going to win comfortably, and with over two weeks of conference play left, I'm guessing that we will be back in the same situation for the Big Sky blurb next week." Guess what? We are right back to where we were last week, with Idaho having a one-game advantage. If Idaho wins out, they win the #1 seed and the outright Big Sky title. If they go 2-1 over the final week and a half, they will clinch the top seed, but a shared title opportunity is in play if Montana State wins their last three games.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-28: Northern Colorado @ Idaho
2-28: Montana State @ Sacramento State
This pair of games are the toughest games for each individual team remaining. I expect them to once again both go 2-0, with Idaho clinching the #1 seed, while the outright conference title will come down to the last game of the season.
Big South
High Point: 13-2
High Point has clinched the #1 seed and the outright Big South regular season title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Big West
UC Irvine: 14-2
UC Davis: 14-3
UC San Diego: 13-3
Cal State Fullerton: 12-5
Hawaii: 10-6
Well, last week I had laid out a fairly clear path forward for the conference between the three teams, as UC Davis had fallen to under a 20% chance to win the top seed in the conference tournament. One result led to another, and now here we sit with five!!! teams who have the ability to share the Big West title. Cal State Fullerton* and Hawaii both cannot win the #1 seed in the conference, but the other three are still alive in the race. With 3-4 games for each of the top three teams, this race is fairly open, but UC Irvine holds nearly all the tiebreakers, so they have a 74.6% chance to win the #1 seed.
*You might think Cal State Fullerton could win the #1 seed by virtue of winning out and everyone else losing all of their games and staying at 14 wins, but UC Irvine and UC Davis play to end the season, and by virtue of that, one of them will get to 15 wins, and both teams would have the tiebreaker.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: UC Davis @ Hawaii
2-28: UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara
3-7: UC Irvine @ UC Davis
3-7: UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego
I cannot pretend to know what will happen in the Big West race with so many teams so close to each other. However, that UC Irvine @ UC Davis game could be for the #1 seed at the end of the season. So watch that! Big West hoops is so good.
Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)
Charleston: 13-1
Monmouth: 11-4
Drexel: 10-4
Campbell: 10-4
Stony Brook: 10-4
Charleston has a 99.4% chance to win the #1 seed with four games to go. They only need to go 2-2 over their last four to win the top seed and the outright conference title. Monmouth, Drexel, Campbell, and Stony Brook are all eliminated from contention for a shared title with a loss. Charleston is a double-digit favorite in each game the rest of the year, so it is likely only a matter of time before they lock up the #1 seed and outright title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-27: William & Mary @ Charleston
3-1: Campbell @ Charleston
There is such a gap between Charleston and the rest of the group that it would take a huge collapse to lose the outright CAA title and the #1 seed. The problem for the other teams is that they are still going to continue to cannibalize each other the next two weeks. Charleston can clinch both this week with two wins.
Conference USA (CUSA)
Louisiana Tech: 14-1
Louisiana Tech has clinched the #1 seed and the outright CUSA regular season title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Horizon
Green Bay: 16-2
Green Bay has clinched the #1 seed and the outright Horizon regular season title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Ivy
Columbia: 9-2
Princeton: 9-2
Harvard: 8-3
With three games to go, Columbia has their fate in their own hands for the #1 seed. If they win out, regardless of what the others do, it's theirs via the tiebreaker. Both Columbia and Princeton can win out, and they would share the Ivy League title. Harvard is lurking with a 3.9% chance to secure a #1 seed, but some upsets would need to happen. It's not out of the realm of possibility that we see a three-team tie in first, but that is unlikely to happen. Columbia currently holds a 69.3% chance to win the #1 seed.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-28: Princeton @ Harvard
2-28: Columbia @ Brown
3-7: Harvard @ Columbia
Columbia will be Harvard's biggest fan on Saturday, as with a Harvard win and a Columbia win on Saturday, Columbia's chance to win the top seed would increase to 95.8%. It's fairly simple: Columbia needs to win out to feel safe or hope that Princeton and Harvard both drop a game to give them a bit of cushion.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)
Fairfield: 18-1
Quinnipiac: 17-1
This is the same as last week. Both teams will finish at 19-1 in the conference, and they will share the MAAC title. Quinnipiac will get the #1 seed in the MAAC conference tournament, as they hold the tiebreaker over Fairfield.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Neither Quinnipiac nor Fairfield will lose, and if they do, shame on their players and staff for the worst loss in college basketball history.
Mid-American Conference (MAC)
Miami (OH): 13-1
Ball State: 13-2
Massachusetts: 11-3
Miami (OH) took a big win over Ball State this past week, which gives them the tiebreaker and a half-game lead in the conference race. Miami (OH) now has an 82.9% chance to win the #1 seed, and they also have an inside track at the outright title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-25: Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan
3-7: Miami (OH) @ Ohio
3-7: Ball State @ Toledo
The pathway is clear for Miami (OH) over the next two weeks. If they win these two games listed, they likely have an excellent shot at winning the #1 seed and outright title. Ball State only has three games left, and the Toledo game will be the toughest game remaining. Massachusetts has four games left and likely will win all of them, but a loss would knock them out regardless. Ball State needs to hope Miami (OH) drops two games somewhere if they want a chance to win the #1 seed. A tie in the final standings would go to Miami (OH).
Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference (MEAC)
Howard: 10-1
Norfolk State: 9-2
Maryland Eastern Shore: 8-3
Howard is still in pole position for the #1 seed, as they have three games left, and two of them should be fairly easy wins. Maryland Eastern Shore has to win out to have a chance at the top seed, and Norfolk State will need to do the same if they want a chance for the #1 seed and the MEAC title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
3-5: Howard @ Norfolk State
This is likely going to be the de facto MEAC title game for the regular season. Provided both teams don't drop a game prior to this game, Howard has a chance to take the outright MEAC title. If the two teams meet at 12-1 and 11-2, then the #1 seed will already be decided, as Howard owns the tiebreaker, and a Norfolk State win would give each team a share of the title.
Missouri Valley (MVC)
Murray State: 15-1
Belmont: 12-4
Murray State doesn't have the #1 seed and the conference title locked down yet, but there is no way that they don't win two of their remaining four games. So I'm considering this race over and finalized.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Murray State has a pair of games this week against Indiana State and Evansville. They'll go 2-0 and lock everything up this week.
Mountain West (MWC)
San Diego State: 16-1
UNLV: 13-4
Boise State: 13-4
San Diego State just needs one more win in their last three games to win the outright Mountain West title, as they've already clinched a share. They have already locked down the #1 seed in the Mountain West tournament, and they have nearly guaranteed themselves to lock down the outright title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-25: San Diego State @ Boise State
2-28: Wyoming @ San Diego State
It's very simple for San Diego State: win one of these games and you are the outright champion in the Mountain West.
NEC (It Doesn't Stand for Anything Anymore)
Fairleigh Dickinson: 15-0
They have locked up the top seed in the NEC tournament and just need one more win to clinch the outright conference title. They will do that this week when they play Le Moyne.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson
Fairleigh Dickinson will clinch the outright NEC title in this game this week.
OVC (Ohio Valley Conference)
Western Illinois: 15-3
Lindenwood: 14-4
Western Illinois and Lindenwood both went 2-0 this past week, which sets up a meeting at the end of the week that will essentially decide who wins the #1 seed in the conference tournament. Both teams will need to take care of business on Thursday, and then that would set up a meeting between the two teams for all the marbles on Saturday.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville
2-28: Lindenwood @ Western Illinois
If Western Illinois wins their first game this week, then it will put the #1 seed on the line Saturday as they host Lindenwood. A win on Thursday would clinch a share of the conference title for Western Illinois, but Lindenwood would be coming in hoping to take down Western Illinois for a share of the conference regular season title and the #1 seed. Whoever goes 2-0 this week wins the top spot in the conference tournament.
Patriot
Navy: 13-2
Navy only plays 17 conference games this year and currently has a 1.5-game lead with two games to go and a 97.2% chance to win the #1 seed. Navy just needs to win one of their last two games to clinch the #1 seed and the Patriot League title. I'm going out on a limb to say that they will not lose both of their remaining games as double-digit favorites.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-28: Navy @ Colgate
Navy should be able to clinch the #1 seed and the outright conference title in this game, as they previously beat Colgate by 28 points.
Sun Belt
Georgia Southern: 14-2
Troy: 14-2
Arkansas State: 13-3
Marshall: 13-4
James Madison: 12-4
This conference is a mess, as there is a real possibility that it ends in a shared conference title at 14-4. I would be rooting for that because that would be so cool. If that happens, Arkansas State would grab the #1 seed in the conference tournament. Troy is currently tied for first place and at the end of the week could be locked into the #5 seed with two losses. It's pointless to talk through all the possibilities because it's just so unclear. All I know is that of these five teams, Marshall cannot win the #1 seed in the tournament, and Georgia Southern or Troy has a combined 97.7% chance to be holding the #1 seed at the end of the year.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-24: Troy @ Arkansas State
2-25: Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State
2-27: Georgia Southern @ Marshall
2-27: Troy @ South Alabama
If both Troy and Georgia Southern win both games this week, they will share the Sun Belt title, and the #1 seed will go to Georgia Southern. If either team goes 1-1 while the other goes 2-0, the perfect team would get both the #1 seed and the conference title. If both teams go 1-1 or 0-2, buckle up because anything could happen, including Arkansas State coming in for the outright title.
Southern
Chattanooga: 10-2
Wofford: 10-3
These are the only two teams that can win the top seed or a share of the conference tournament in the SoCon. Chattanooga would clinch a share with a win or a Wofford loss. However, Chattanooga has a chance to clinch the SoCon #1 seed and regular season title prior to Wofford playing this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Chattanooga @ Samford
2-28: Chattanooga @ Mercer
2-28: Wofford @ Furman
Three away games and three must-wins if each team wants a #1 seed. Chattanooga will at worst be the #1 seed and share the regular season championship with a 1-1 record. If they win both, they are locked into both the #1 seed and the outright title. Wofford has to win if they want a chance at getting the #1 seed.
SEC
South Carolina: 13-1
South Carolina is locked into the #1 seed in the SEC tournament. They only need one more win to clinch the outright SEC regular season crown, and they are not losing to both Missouri and Kentucky this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: South Carolina @ Missouri
Barring a massive upset, South Carolina will clinch the SEC regular season crown outright in this game.
Southwest Athletic Conference (SWAC)
Alabama A&M: 14-1
Alcorn State: 11-3
Alabama A&M has a 99.7% chance to win the #1 seed and the outright SWAC regular season title. They have three games at home to finish the year, and it is extremely likely that they will win one of the games. Alcorn State has to finish 4-0 while hoping that Alabama A&M drops all three games.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Alcorn State @ Texas Southern
2-28: Alabama State @ Alabama A&M
3-3: Grambling State @ Alabama A&M
Alabama A&M can clinch the top seed in the SWAC tournament with a win or an Alcorn State loss and the outright regular season crown with two wins. The Alcorn State game listed isn't going to be easy, as they are only a two-point favorite on the road. Things would have to go far south for Alabama State to not hold the #1 seed in the conference tournament.
Southland
McNeese State: 18-1
McNeese State has clinched the #1 seed and the outright Southland regular season title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
None!
Summit
North Dakota State: 12-0
South Dakota State: 10-2
North Dakota State has already clinched the top seed in the Summit League tournament. They need a single win to clinch the outright conference title, as they already have a share of the conference title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-25: North Dakota State @ South Dakota State
2-28: North Dakota State @ North Dakota
North Dakota State would love nothing more than to sweep South Dakota State in the season series and win the outright title over them in a head-to-head game. If they lose this game, they won't lose the game to North Dakota, so you can already assume that the outright title resides with North Dakota State.
Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Cal Baptist: 11-3
Abilene Christian: 10-4
Southern Utah: 11-4
Both Cal Baptist and Abilene Christian lost last week, and so now Southern Utah enters the fray with a 20% chance to win the top spot after having less than a 5% chance just seven days ago. Abilene Christian has a 40.8% chance to win the #1 seed, while Cal Baptist has a 29.2% chance. It is a close battle that will come down to the last day of the season most likely.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Cal Baptist @ UT Arlington
2-28: Cal Baptist @ Tarleton State
2-28: Southern Utah @ Utah Tech
2-28: Utah Valley @ Cal Baptist
3-5: Cal Baptist @ Abilene Christian
I'm not going to pretend to know how to hash this out, so I'm not going to. Just win your games and hope everyone else loses. The conference title and #1 seed could come down to the result of the Cal Baptist @ Abilene Christian game in March.
West Coast Conference (WCC)
Gonzaga: 13-3
Loyola Marymount: 13-3
Oregon State: 12-4
Santa Clara: 11-5
It's nearly a guarantee that the #1 seed goes to either Gonzaga or Loyola Marymount at this point, and the only way that it might not is if they both go 0-2 this week. Oregon State and Santa Clara will be hoping for two losses by the top two teams. Oregon State could share the title if they go 2-0 this week and both Gonzaga and Loyola Marymount drop a game. There are so many possibilities in the WCC; heck, last week Portland had a chance at being the #1 seed, and now they have a 13.9% chance of finishing in the bottom half!
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-26: Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco
2-28: Loyola Marymount @ Oregon State
2-28: Gonzaga @ Portland
Gonzaga has the easiest week and has the benefit of being able to see what Loyola Marymount does in a tough game before they play on Saturday. Gonzaga also plays Saint Mary's this week and is favored by 15.8 points in that one. If Loyola Marymount can pull off a 2-0 week, then they will be the #1 seed, as they hold the tiebreaker. If they can't, and Gonzaga goes 2-0, then Gonzaga is the outright regular season champ and has the top seed in the WCC conference.
Now, remember, the WCC also has a ladder conference tournament set up, which means that the top two seeds only have to win two games to win the tournament, the #3 and #4 would have to win three games, and so on. The conference is so crowded right now that Oregon State can either clinch the #1 seed or might fall to the #5 seed, meaning they'd have to win four games in a row in the conference tournament. The battle for the #2, #3, and #4 seeds is going to be just as important in this conference as the #1.