The head coach may be gone, but two key starters remain, and McNeese is headed back to the NCAA Tournament after blowing the doors off top-seed Stephen F. Austin in the Southland finals.
Though just the second seed in the league, McNeese had been the No. 1 team in KenPom's metrics for the entirety of the season, off the backs of the nation's number one turnover defense and one of the best two-way turnover margins in the country.
The Cowboys had just two losses in non-conference play, both to surefire NCAA Tournament teams in Michigan and Santa Clara. They've also really found their footing of late, winning 10 straight games.
Perhaps the craziest part about McNeese's success off of last year's Round of 32 run with now-NC State head coach Will Wade is that their two returning starters, Javohn Garcia and DJ Richards, aren't either of their two top scorers.
Instead, that honor belongs to transfer guards Larry Johnson (Creighton), and Tyshawn Archie (Tulsa). Almost an embarrassment of riches, nine of McNeese's 10 rotation players have played at either the power conference or upper mid-major level, including former heralded recruits Garwey Dual and Jerrell Colbert.
That said, it's not all domination for the Cowboys. They needed three overtimes to take down UT Rio Grande Valley in the semifinals, and often have serious issues scoring the ball when they can't get out in transition off their steals. Still, if last year is any indication, McNeese is not a team that a 5-seed wants to see next to their name on Selection Sunday.
Distinct Defensive Identity
KenPom provides 18 different defensive metrics in the scouting report section of his site. Hilariously, McNeese is either top-100, or sub-200 in every single one. No mediocrity for this group!
This is all due to the fact that no team pressures the ball more than McNeese. The team is first in defensive turnover rate as previously mentioned, but also first in steal rate, sixth in block rate, and first in longest defensive possessions allowed at 19.2 seconds.
There are only six teams in the country that play press defense on a higher percentage of possessions. McNeese puts on a press on 27 possessions per game, with a 23% turnover rate on those plays. That suffocation either leads to those patented steals, or extraordinarily long possessions, which tracks given the numbers I just mentioned. Here's what it looks like in action.
The reasons why McNeese's defense is so good at forcing long possessions and forcing turnovers are immediately evident in the tape.
But the team's extreme aggressiveness also has its downsides. They can get called for tons of fouls for reaching and running into opponents with their helping. In their one power conference tilt against Michigan, they allowed the Wolverines to shoot an absurd 45 free throws.
The constant shifting and switching also leads to lots of mismatches on the glass. In the same way that it's hard to box out in a zone, guards are often stuck on bigs and players are out of position. Outside of that Michigan game, McNeese's two best opponents - Santa Clara and George Washington - combined to grab over 55% of their misses against the Cowboys. That is 43 offensive rebounds allowed in two games.
So while McNeese may force over 20 turnovers in a game, the real key is to keep teams off the foul line and offensive glass.
Offensive Consistency
All of McNeese's losses have one thing in common. They do not shoot the 3-ball well. The Cowboys have shot a combined 26-for-118 (22%) from deep in their losses, but are a 31.6% 3-point shooting team on the year.
McNeese's leading scorer Johnson has just 24 makes on 25% shooting from beyond the arc. Their six players standing 6-foot-5 or taller are a combined 29-for-129 (22.5%) from deep. If the guards cannot hit shots, no one is hitting shots.
A team that can protect the paint and force McNeese to be shooters has the chance of catching them on an off-shooting night. In that case, the Cowboys can become entirely reliant on their defense to become their offense with steals and run outs in transition.
More than any team on the 12-seed line amongst the top mid-majors to earn an autobid, McNeese is extremely matchup-dependant. A team that struggles to handle the ball and has weaknesses keeping individual creators in front could have serious issues with this squad. But a team that has a conservative offensive and defensive approach may be able to take the Cowboys out of what they want to do.
Either way you slice it, McNeese is one of the most unique teams in the country. It can only do things one way, but that way also vaulted the Cowboys to a 28-5 record and a No. 65 ranking in KenPom. Not too shabby.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, McNeese is a projected No. 12 seed by our bracketology at Basket Under Review and on the Bracket Matrix.
Should that be the case, the Tournament Index rates the Cowboys as a slightly-below-average No. 12 seed (31st-strongest power rating out of 49 teams) compared to the last 12 NCAA Tournament fields. If they land as a different seed, they would be the ninth-weakest No. 11 seed or the eighth-strongest No. 13 seed over the same time frame. The TI projects an average of 0.29 wins for McNeese given its projected seed (No. 12) and strength.
