We love the unpredictability that college basketball brings. It's part of the fabric of the season and peaks during the NCAA Tournament each March, where the single-elimination format helps amplify that unpredictability and randomness.

And because it's unpredictable, we're always searching for a way to crack the code.

As it turns out, one of the best ways to predict who will win the national championship is to look at the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll. Each of the last 21 national champions has been ranked in that range at this point in the season which, following Monday's release of the poll, means these 12 teams fit the criteria:

But, as is the case with other code-cracking indicators, there will inevitably be exceptions.

For example, each national champion in the KenPom era has had a top-20 offense and defense entering the NCAA Tournament – except for the 2011 and 2014 UConn teams.

Each champion since 1989 has also been a top three seed – except for 1997 Arizona, 2014 UConn, and 2023 UConn.

Heck, every national champion has ranked in the top nine of the Week 6 AP Poll except for 2016 Villanova, which is why the range has now expanded to 12.

Who are some teams that could become exceptions to the rule this postseason? Here are the five most likely:

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois the highest-ranked KenPom team (No. 9) to not find itself in the top 12 of the AP poll, making it the most obvious inclusion on the list. The Illini are also one of only six teams in the country that boast a top-10 offense and a top-25 defense.

Historically, national champions almost always appear in this efficiency neighborhood by early December — and Illinois already checks those boxes.

What makes this even more impressive is that Illinois has assembled this resume while dealing with interruptions in lineup continuity. The team ranks 75th nationally in minutes continuity (just 38.9 percent) and has been juggling rotation pieces due to early-season injuries, particularly to wings and bigs like Tomislav Ivišić, who’s missed time but remains one of the Illini’s most efficient per-possession producers. Despite the rotational flux, the Illini are still putting up elite numbers .

The engine driving this group is the Boswell–Stojaković–Wagler trio, which has quickly become one of the most versatile scoring combinations in the country.

Kylan Boswell, now settled in as Illinois’s primary creator, is producing at an all-Big Ten level with an offensive rating of 129.2 and a true shooting percentage right below 60 percent. He has also been elite in pick-and-roll decision-making, with just a 11.2 turnover rate despite heavy on-ball responsibility

His ability to create efficient offense late in the clock has stabilized Illinois in tight games and raised their ceiling compared to last season.

Andrej Stojaković has been the purest scoring option when he’s on the court. His combination of shot-making and off-ball value (top-100 nationally in off-screen efficiency per tracking data) gives Illinois a reliable perimeter fulcrum.

Then there’s Keaton Wagler, whose emergence is a major reason Illinois is outperforming early expectations. For a freshman, his numbers are outrageous with an offensive rating even higher than Boswell’s.

His ability to be the “third scorer” on the perimeter on any given night gives Illinois a level of offensive balance that many top-10 teams simply don’t have.

Defensively, Illinois is not overwhelming in any single category, but they are solid everywhere, a classic profile of a team that can win in March. Combine that with a top-10 offense, and Illinois fits the archetype of teams that have overcome historical hurdles before: elite scoring, versatile creators, multiple takeover options, and a defense strong enough not to disqualify them.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Going from No. 13 in the AP Poll (Illinois) to No. 14 in North Carolina may feel like we're cheating the system a little bit, but I do believe UNC's ceiling is as high as almost anyone in the country. And, even if it's not, we've already seen Hubert Davis take a No. 8 seed to the national championship game, so anything is possible.

That said, I don't want to underscore the talent that is on this roster, especially because the Heels boast a frontcourt that may be the most imposing in college basketball. They also have a freshman who is already playing like one of the best players in the nation.

That freshman is Caleb Wilson, who is more than just UNC’s highest-usage offensive piece — he’s their engine. Wilson has the ability to do everything on the court at a high level. He’s the team’s best rebounder, best defender, and most versatile offensive weapon that knows how to use his length, athleticism, and unrelenting motor to get to his spots (or to the foul line).

But Wilson isn’t doing this alone. UNC’s frontcourt trio of Wilson, Henri Veesaar, and Jarin Stevenson has quietly become the team’s greatest structural advantage. Veesaar is operating at a borderline elite level with a 125.9 offensive rating and a top-50 effective field goal percentage to go along with being one of the nation’s best rim protectors. When Stevenson rotates in, UNC maintains size, fluidity, and a spacing element not many frontcourts can match. His ability to play either the three or the four gives the Heels ultimate lineup versatility, too.

The result? UNC is smothering teams inside. Opponents shoot just 40.5% from two (top-three nationally), and the Heels are holding teams to a 29.4% three-point percentage with long, disruptive closeouts. Their overall shot profile allowed — one of the hallmarks of elite defenses — is that of a team forcing difficult looks across the board.

What’s changed recently, however, and why UNC is beginning to look even more dangerous, is the growth of its backcourt. Kyan Evans has settled into an assertive role while Derek Dixon’s emergence gives them someone else that has shown to be increasingly capable of creating offense against high-level defenses.

And help is still coming. Seth Trimble’s pending return gives UNC its best point-of-attack defender and a downhill athletic guard who drastically improves lineup flexibility. Trimble allows Evans to toggle between on-ball and off-ball duties — his most natural fit — and gives Davis even more lineup flexibility.

Put it all together and UNC checks every box of a title-level profile that hasn’t fully surfaced in the polls yet: a high-level efficiency margin with a dominant, NBA-caliber frontcourt along with improving guard play and a true superstar in Wilson.

If North Carolina’s backcourt continues its upward trajectory, the Tar Heels won’t just break into the top 12 — they’ll belong in the top tier of national contenders

Kansas Jayhawks

The Jayhawks sit at No. 17 on KenPom, a mark driven by a top-10 defense and an offense that has survived without the player who was supposed to be its centerpiece.

That piece, of course, is Darryn Peterson — and his absence is the single biggest reason Kansas looks “good” instead of “terrifying.” Peterson has been limited for most of the season due to injury, but even with a bad hamstring, he’s been Kansas’s highest-usage scorer (30.2% usage rate). The superstar freshman is averaging 20.0 points per game with a 65.4% eFG% and creating offense few guards in the country can replicate. When healthy, Peterson is one of the most dynamic wings in the sport: a three-level scorer with size, bounce, real shot-making equity, and the ability to win games late. There are maybe eight to ten players in the country who can drag their team into a national-title tier just by being on the floor, and Peterson is one of them.

The Jayhawks have essentially played the entire first month of the season without that version of Peterson, and they’ve still beaten Tennessee, controlled games against both Notre Dame and Syracuse, and pushed both Duke and UConn despite running an offense without its most important engine. That alone strengthens their case.

In his absence, Melvin Council and Tre White have emerged as impactful offensive options but have been asked to do too much offensively because Peterson isn’t available — and that will normalize when the star freshman returns.

The frontcourt, meanwhile, is built like a second-weekend unit. Flory Bidunga has quietly had a breakout start to the season, combining elite efficiency (61.7 TS%), powerful rebounding, and shot-blocking (9.6% BLK rate) to anchor the paint in a way Kansas simply didn’t have last season. Add in Bryson Tiller, whose versatility provides lineup flexibility, and Kansas has one of the deepest, most dynamic young cores in the country.

Defensively, this team is every bit the part of a national contender. The Jayhawks currently rank in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage defense, three-point defense, and block rate. That defensive profile is actually ahead of where the 2022 title team was at this point in the season.

The question, then, becomes simple: does Kansas have enough scoring to beat elite teams? Right now, maybe not every night. But when Peterson is able to stay fully healthy, the equation changes dramatically.

Few players in the country can raise a team’s offensive ceiling the way Peterson can. He gives Kansas a go-to scorer, a late-clock fixer, a perimeter creator, and a matchup problem who does not disappear against top-10 defenses. With him, the Jayhawks are capable of beating anyone.

Florida Gators

Florida remains one of the most interesting teams outside the top 12 because their infrastructure still looks like that of a national contender. And while their record is uneven, the underlying numbers — and the roster’s core — mirror the blueprint of last year’s championship team.

Start with the frontcourt, which has again become Florida’s identity. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh anchor what is still one of the most efficient, physically imposing big-man duos in the country. Their production isn’t just good — it’s elite. Florida’s 56.7% two-point percentage, combined with its 40.5% offensive rebounding rate (No. 3 nationally), is the clearest statistical echo of last season’s title run, when their interior and rebounding advantages carried them through matchup after matchup.

Haugh is playing the best basketball of his career and has become an indispensable piece head coach Todd Golden simply can’t take off the court because of his two-way efficiency and ability to thrive both inside and on the perimeter. 

Add in Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten, who both bring defensive pop and elite rebounding metrics, and Florida once again has a frontcourt capable of controlling games in March-like environments.

But Florida’s ceiling will ultimately be determined by its backcourt — and that is where Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland come in.

Both guards have struggled early. Lee is shooting below 27 percent from the field while Fland is under 40 with a near-equal assist-to-turnover ratio. The inefficiency is real, and it’s the main reason Florida’s halfcourt offense can sometimes bog down.

But there’s reason to believe both can turn it around.

Though Lee has looked lost at times, he has been an efficient player on high volume each of the last two seasons. We saw flashes of that in Tuesday's narrow defeat to UConn at the Jimmy V Classic. And, despite the shooting woes, he has still been the team’s best playmaker – something that should only improve as he becomes more comfortable at this level.

Fland, meanwhile, has the most room to grow — and the ability to change Florida’s season the most because, well, we saw him do it for Arkansas last season. Florida’s offense becomes much more dynamic when Fland is aggressive and drawing second defenders, and Todd Golden knows it. The staff is continuing to give him volume because his ceiling outcome makes Florida a different team.

Just look at the last few minutes against Duke. Florida put the ball in Fland’s hands, and his ability to self-create nearly stole a victory for the Gators.

Together, Lee and Fland represent the volatility that the frontcourt does not. Florida’s bigs give them a baseline that keeps them in every game. The guards give them access to peaks high enough to beat anyone.

Florida isn’t there yet, and they may never get there. But the framework of a title-level team is visible, and that’s why they’re one of the most plausible streak-breakers.

Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is one of the most intriguing teams sitting outside the top-12 because, on paper, everything still looks to be in place for a March run – they just haven’t put the full thing together yet. And that’s really the story: Tennessee has been good, but hasn’t yet gotten anything close to the best version of Nate Ament.

Ament’s talent is obvious, but the learning curve against high-major defenses has hit him hard. His usage is massive—over 30 percent—and with that has come an expected dip in efficiency. He’s struggled to finish over length, he’s taken too many tough mid-range jumpers, and he’s turned the ball over at a higher rate than Barnes would like. But none of that is surprising for a teenager who’s being asked to carry an SEC offense right away, and Barnes has been honest about the process. 

“It got a whole lot harder,” he said after the Syracuse loss. “He’s not going to be able to do the things he did in high school. It’s a process… he’s going to have to go through the fire.” 

The important thing is that Tennessee is still competitive on nights when Ament looks overwhelmed. That’s usually the sign of a team built to withstand early-season growing pains and surge later.

A big part of that steadiness comes from Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who has taken his playmaking to another level after thriving at Maryland. His efficiency numbers are down everywhere else as he leans into a bigger role with the Vols, but some of that has to do with the fact Ament hasn’t taken a lot of pressure off him yet. 

Jaylen Carey has also become an important connector, defending multiple positions, hitting the glass at an incredibly high rate, and giving Tennessee a secondary creator when Ament’s struggling. Meanwhile, Felix Okpara continues to be a true defensive anchor.

But if you wonder why the Vols are worthy of inclusion, it comes down to this – we might be seeing the worst basketball Tennessee will play all season, and it has still led to it beating Houston and staying right with teams like Kansas and Illinois. 

The Vols are going to improve defensively. Right now, this is rated as Tennessee’s worst group on that end since the pandemic, yet the personnel doesn’t reflect that. The offense is struggling, too, but Ament is too skilled and talented not to figure it out. When he does, everything is going to open up on that end.

The best is still ahead for Rick Barnes’ squad, and I trust this veteran team and coaching staff to figure it out.