It was over early. We just didn't know it yet. When Michigan went into an Arizona timeout up 16-5, it was over. When Michigan overcame a quick Arizona 9-0 run to go back up 35-23, it was over. When Michigan went into halftime up 48-32, it was super over, and when Michigan immediately zoomed to a 22-point lead with 16 minutes left it was the most over anything has ever been in history. And yet: it got even more over than that.
What Michigan did to Arizona in a 91-73 win is well up there with the most impressive and shocking demolitions I've seen. With Gonzaga/Baylor in 2021, Baylor controlled the game flow the whole way but never got up by more than 20, and at least at one point in the second half of that game, Gonzaga was within single digits. Arizona had it down to 56-39 at the first media timeout, then never got that close again.
How Michigan managed it was more or less how they've managed it all year. As Dusty May said in his opening statement, "this game was very indicative of how this group has played throughout the season." That's something you'd say after beating Rutgers by 28, which...is about how it felt. May was so confident in his team that he spent the first game sideline scouting, which is both hilarious and telling of what kind of elite-level coach the guy is.
On a night where Michigan seemed to do little if any wrong, two performances stood out to me as special in a different way, fitting for two very different individuals: the 7'3" Aday Mara (26 points, 9 boards, a pair of blocks) and freshman guard Trey McKenney (16 points and four made threes). When both were on the court together, Michigan was +12 in 36 possessions, shot 58% from two, and put up a hilarious 1.44 PPP against what will finish the year as the nation's second-best defense.
Mara madness
In the biggest game of the season, Mara delivered his single best performance (offensively, at least) as a Wolverine. Mara posted a career-high in points against what was thought to be the best non-Michigan frontline left in the field, and many a joke about Mick Cronin was made on Twitter dot com. Even if Mara's plus-minus wasn't as impressive as others, though, his capital-I Impact on this game was felt from the get-go, and frankly, only some of it was on offense.
Defensively, when Mara was in the game, Arizona took an astounding 47.2% of their shots from the midrange, per Hoop-Explorer, with only 25% of their made baskets ending in assists. Mara's gigantic frame allows Michigan to funnel a lot to him, and despite Arizona's general resistance to taking many jumpers they were forced into shooting over the top of Mara in crew because there were few other options. Arizona attempted a season-high 22 jumpers off the dribble, most of which were in shorter midrange land, and shooting over the top of Mara in these situations was obviously easier said than done.
Because this Arizona team isn't one for threes, even if they do hit them at a good rate, Michigan stayed in drop with Mara pretty much all game and had no reason to change out of it. On the rare occasions when Arizona could actually feed the ball to Motiejus Krivas in the post and go 7'2" versus 7'3", it was Mara who frequently won out. Even Tobe Awaka, a player I have loved forever, got suckered into the trap of attempting hook shots over Mara. You can guess how that went.
On the other end of the court, Michigan's P&R game didn't actually have a very efficient night, thanks to Cadeau struggling with his jumper and with Michigan quietly having 13 turnovers on an otherwise perfect night for the Wolverines. Yet any time Cadeau, McKenney, or anyone hunted Mara on the roll, it felt like free money. I particularly loved this set which back-screened Mara's man (Awaka) and highlights why Mara isn't Just Big. I mean...look at that movement! The mid-air adjustment!
It was that kind of night for Mara, who ESPN Analytics graded out as Michigan's best player at +10 Net Points and the single best player in the Final Four last night. It's hard to argue, frankly, but I do think he shared stardom with a fellow M-named teammate.
McKenney magic
I'll never be big on plus/minus, but hey, here's one for you: Trey McKenney was +22 in a game Michigan won by 18. His own point total was one thing, but his across-the-board play shows to me why he's clearly one of Michigan's main five, even over a veteran in Nimari Burnett, even over a veteran in Roddy Gayle.
In each half, McKenney's impact was felt in different ways. There's many ways you can summarize this, plus/minus being one, but I felt the simplest play in basketball - a rebound - was part of a gigantic half-closing stretch for Michigan. After a missed layup by Elliot Cadeau on the other end, Arizona pulled out in transition to attempt to cut Michigan's lead back to single digits. Down 35-25, Arizona's Koa Peat headed straight to the rim...and missed a driving layup. No worry! The 7'2" Motiejus Krivas likely wouldn't miss a tip-in. When he did, guess who was there to create Michigan's own transition break?
This three gave Michigan a 38-25 lead. Arizona would never again get within 11.
In the second half, May inserted McKenney directly out of the first media timeout. McKenney has existed this season as Michigan's single best shooter - 67-170, 39.4% from deep - but perhaps not its most prolific. When the average person thinks of Michigan shooters, they're likely picturing Yaxel Lendeborg (limited due to injury), the highly improved Elliot Cadeau (who did shoot 3-7 from 3, but 5-17 overall), or Nimari Burnett (1-3).
Yet as the season went on, McKenney began to emerge from intriguing-if-erratic bench piece to a legitimate key reason for Michigan going supernova once more when it's mattered most. Since February 1, McKenney has shot 44% from 3, 54% from 2, and has only been outpaced by Lendeborg in shooting efficiency and/or made threes. With Lendeborg's up-in-the-air injury status, perhaps we should've seen one more Michigan nail in the coffin coming through McKenney.
On a day where freshmen either had extended struggles or weren't as major of factors as hoped, McKenney's calm demeanor and high-quality performance stood out.
With McKenney on the court at all, Michigan put up 1.37 PPP on 51 possessions, shot 55% from 2 and 50% from 3, and had a sky-high assist rate thanks to the inside-out play generated by Michigan's bigs. With his continued emergence as the season has gone on, the Wolverines enter the title game Monday with the equivalent of seven real starters. McKenney will come off the bench, as he usually does, but few teams I can remember in the sport's recent history have offered the luxury of bringing a player nearing the EvanMiya top 100 off the bench and it not being a weird thing.
Michigan's moment?
Look, I'm out of alliteration, it's Sunday morning and none of us at BUR have slept a wink. UConn is 6-0 in title games and has the Mandate of Heaven™; Michigan is 1-6, and even if they were underdogs in all of those losses, it's still a hard stereotype to overcome. Michigan's long been elite on Saturday, but has struggled to translate it to Monday.
The Wolverines will be fairly heavy favorites in a way we almost never see in the national title game. Currently favored by 7.5 points, it's the largest spread in a national championship since 1999 UConn/Duke. That one ended in a stunner of an upset, with UConn defeating a heavily-favored 1 seed thought to be potentially a top-10 team to ever play the sport. Even in other games of past lives, Kansas (+8) upset Oklahoma in 1988, and Villanova (+8) pulled it off against Georgetown in 1985.
Still, it would be a stunner. Dusty's deft touch with this team, seemingly nailing every matchup and every lineup, is one of the best coaching jobs in modern memory. Yes, this team has money; yes, it is old in a way we usually don't see in college basketball. I can't and won't complain about it, though. There's a real chance that May is the ideal coach for college basketball in 2026: an analytically-minded, extremely savvy coach who is more than happy to play the portal game and invest in scouting, both analytical and visual.
What UConn has in front of them is a gigantic uphill battle. If Michigan can complete this run, whether by a single point or by 40 of them, the Wolverines can and should be viewed as one of the greatest teams the sport has ever seen. Hail to the Victors Valiant, indeed.
