Emergence! The appropriate annual word that describes many Mountain West Conference success stories. From each preseason to postseason in recent memory, the MWC has produced at least one surprise, typically multiple, tournament-caliber teams, while the general public and AP voters did not expect it.

A preseason tradition like no other from America's most aptly named conference. An overachieving league that produces toughness that I have treasured as an analyst - battle-tested road teams.

The unique and challenging trips to high-altitude towns in the Mountain region. And the challenging trips for altitude-based programs to come West and face teams at sea level. Travel scenarios that are unmatched anywhere in the country.

For those less familiar, and with multiple time zone travel excluded from this equation, altitude itself is the most important data point that impacts performance results. More substantial than crowd noise or any other traveling factor that you can come up with in your beautiful basketball mind.

Ken Pomeroy and others have gone to great lengths to demonstrate this. The Big 12 acquiring the Mountain schools has also given them a massive quantity. Take a look at these five teams in the top 32 of the country:

Organically, the MWC fostered a uniquely mouthwatering matchup. Team performances drastically changed, depending on the venue.

Not listed on the KP home court success chart above? Wyoming (7220 feet) and Air Force (7000 feet). The two highest points in College Basketball. This league is an absolute bear, never simple trips even for the elites of the league. San Diego State, for example, the national face of the league, beat the Falcons in OT by one point a year ago and survived Laramie by just three points.

Nevada (4600) feet is the national secret of elevation. I think many forget that the Wolfpack plays at nearly the same elevation as nationally popular Utah State (4800 feet). Both schools have been tremendously advantaged at home in recent seasons.

New Mexico is actually higher (5100) and the most successful home court per the model. Richard Pitino got the program hummin' and now Eric Olen will certainly carry the torch further. It's no wonder that the AD at UNM will never sacrifice a certain number of non-conference home games.

Need a San Jose State stunner over New Mexico? No problem. Need a Wyoming Border War court storming against a terrific Colorado State team, circa 2024? We got that. How bout an arena full of Air Force cadets, losing their collective minds and also scaring the Aztecs or beating UNLV? All good!

Anything is possible in this league each night. The late start times have a flair for the college basketball fanatic, with dramatic endings. Double OT and beyond games are not uncommon either.

What began in 1998 as a coalition among eight schools, originally led by then Colorado State President, Dr. Albert Yates, the Mountain West Conference was conceived.

The move was football-driven, designed by Young to separate the invested and more historically successful football programs to split off from the massive 16-team WAC.

A look at the WAC Standings in 1997, which featured a Pacific Division and a Mountain Division:

Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, and Wyoming formed a brand new NCAA Division I-A intercollegiate athletic conference.

Craig Thompson was appointed as the first Commissioner for the new conference, and on October 26, 1998, it became official - the league would be called the Mountain West Conference.

Several milestones occurred in 1999, leading up to the first MWC athletics season. None is more important than a seven-year agreement with ESPN, Inc., giving ESPN exclusive national and regional television rights to football and men’s basketball, and the women’s basketball championship game.

Over the years, deeper cable TV deals like CSTV, DirecTV, and CBS Sports Network, plus an MW streaming platform, rotated around as the home of MW Hoops contests.

The 1999-2000 season tipped off what is now remembered as 25 mostly great Mountain West seasons.

The Recent Mountain Climb

A general rule of thumb when leagues start to achieve success consistently is to simply look at their collection of head coaches.

Brian Dutcher, San Diego State:  The only coach in the 104-year history of San Diego State men’s basketball to win at least 20 games in each of his first eight seasons. His 198 victories in eight seasons (198-68) are the most for any Division I head coach whose first year guiding his current program was 2017-18, and the accompanying win percentage, 74.4 percent, is the highest for any head basketball coach in San Diego State history. He owns multiple Sweet 16 and a national championship game appearance thus far.

Leon Rice, Boise State: Winningest coach in Boise State history. Rice has guided the Broncos to five NCAAT appearances and twelve 20-win seasons. Since taking over, Rice has led the Broncos to 316 wins, which ranks 48th in the nation during that span.

Niko Medved, Colorado State: A proud historic run at Colorado State, as the Rams competed in the NCAAT three of the last four years. Medved led Colorado State to a Mountain West tournament championship in 2025 and an automatic NCAA Tournament berth, where they advanced to the Round of 32, and he was ultimately hired by the Big Ten's Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Richard Pitino, New Mexico: Pitino leaned into playing at the PIT. After one sluggish season of rebuilding, the next three years consisted of postseason play, including the past two NCAAT's. Last season, the Lobos only lost once at the PIT, and really capitalized on the home court (above Pomeroy graphic illustrates the success). Perhaps Pitino will be most remembered for the amazing four wins in four days at the MWC Tournament to take the auto-bid and gift the conference with a record sixth NCAAT team in 2024. Or perhaps his opening round win in the NCAAs over Marquette in 2025, before accepting the job at Xavier.

Everyone at Utah State! Craig Smith was unbelievable in this post for three straight seasons, essentially getting to three straight NCAATs, with 2020 being wiped out. Let's not forget that epic shot by Sam Merrill ever:

The program just continued to thrive after Smith went on to coach at Utah. Ryan Odom came in and got to the NIT in year one, followed by a run to the MW Finals, and a 2023 NCAAT appearance before accepting the VCU head coaching job. Then Danny Sprinkle provided shockwaves by winning the MWC regular-season title outright for the only time ever. Aggies were picked 9th during the preseason. The rapid winning earned Mr. Sprinkle the job at Washington.

Now, Jerrod Calhoun continues the long line of Logan success. Calhoun's first USU season consisted of a 24-4 start and a trip to the NCAA's. This season, the Aggies are my surprise pick to win the league again, despite several looking at the perennial Aztecs.

Steve Alford, Nevada: Back-to-back NCAAT appearances in 2023 and 2024 got the loyal Pack fans rowdy and produced a high standard of winning in Reno. Before last season's challenges, Alford was 29-3 in home games. Once again, a wild homecourt advantage here in this great conference. Alford has won 12 or more games in three of his six MW seasons. He proudly believed his 2024 squad earned some piece of the regular-season title by winning at Utah State in their only meeting, and Nevada had a much tougher road than USU. An ultimate competitor:

The tremendous coaching pedigree, combined with outstanding environments and cultures have permeated. Producing unexpected, emerging late-season scorching-hot squads. Look no further than last season's Colorado State team, which I believe was the hottest team in the country entering March Madness. Nevada was similar in 2024, only to have the magic stolen by New Mexico, who get even hotter.

My firm belief is that there is plenty of nationally competitive talent in seven places (including UNLV and the six spots listed by the coach). That number is now eight for one year, with Grand Canyon being an invested threat to be firmly in the 2026 conference race.

Take a look at the five-year outlook, including this season's KenPom preseason data.

2025-26:
1 Preseason POM TOP 40/TBD NCAA Tournament

2024-25:
0 Preseason POM TOP 40/4 teams enter NCAA Tournament

2023-24:
1 Preseason POM TOP 40/6 teams enter NCAA Tournament

2022-23:
1 Preseason POM TOP 40/4 teams enter NCAA Tournament

2021-22:
1 Preseason POM TOP 40/4 teams enter NCAA Tournament

You can sense the theme here. Even our favorite algorithms can't smell the Mountain West coming, but humans should. That's actually an even larger struggle for the quality MW teams to not get noticed enough by the AP and other heavily-marketed pundit work.

THE BEST IN SHOW - A Few of My Favorite MW Players of the past 25 years

UTAH STATE: Neemias Queta - Had the luxury of getting word about Queta's brilliance in the summer of 2018. Largely an unknown, at least in my orbit, here comes this 7-foot coordinated and athletically skilled machine in Queta. This was only seven summers ago, but it feels like generations ago now, given the influx of international talent entering College Hoops.

After watching this Freshman play really well and start every game as a Freshman and helping the Aggies get an 8-seed in the 2019 NCAAT, I committed to seeing him play at an event in Houston. The Aggies won over South Florida in OT that day. Queta had 18/8 with a pair of assists and is in KP as the game MVP, even though Justin Bean had the game-winning bucket. A phenomenal talent. A current Boston Celtic. Most importantly, a tremendous human who helped spark this amazing run of Utah State excellence.

SAN DIEGO STATE: Jamaal Franklin - Back in my blissful years as a San Diego resident, I witnessed the historic rise of the SDSU program. Kawhi Leonard deserves a lot of well-deserved credit for being the program difference maker. Leonard paved the way for Franklin to become great.

I still remember the first time I saw Franklin and asked a local friend, why is he wearing long sleeves under his uniform? It blew my mind. "He must be so sweaty!" I immediately could not relate to him because for me personally, I could never play with long sleeves in a hot gym. That was probably the moment when I started paying really close attention to his game.

It blew me away how hard this guy played. He did it all for the Aztecs, and the old data still proves that. In his 2013 season, in which SDSU advanced to the 2nd Round, Franklin was: 3rd in D-Reb%, 2nd in Fouls drawn, 6th in Minutes played, 7th in FT%, 6th in Steal%, 13th in Block rate, 16th in Assist rate, and 18th in O-Reb% for all MW players in league play. An absolute jewel of a college player who did everything it takes to win. This video intro says it all, and matches my memories:

AIR FORCE: Antoine Hood - Hood was a key piece of each of the Falcons' past two NCAAT squads in 2004 under now HC Joe Scott (2nd stint) and Jeff Bzdelik, the former Nuggets coach who spent two seasons guiding the academy.

Hood's recruitment story was something unique. In high school, Hood didn't receive any playing time until his senior year, spending his freshman and junior years on the bench. Then Hood became a starter during his senior year, and his high school basketball team gained the No. 1 ranking in the state of Texas. Air Force offered him a scholarship, and his parents urged him to accept. Air Force won 12 games during Hood's freshman season, the most the Academy had won since the 1960s.

Then, 2003-04 happened, and the program took off like an F-22 Raptor. Hood ultimately became a key piece of three straight seasons of Air Force performing as a Top 45 program in America. That is still incredible to think about. His work ethic and loyalty to that full scholarship offer made him the first NBA prospect, really ever. Hood did get some time with the Denver Nuggets, fulfilling his dream. He remains an inspiration to many surrounding the program.

WYOMING: Larry Nance, Jr. - Mr. Nance was an unforgettable figure in Laradise. Nance was one of five seniors who helped lead Wyoming to a Mountain West tournament title and its first NCAA tournament since 2001-02. Nance, Jr. began his career at Wyoming in 2011-12 and stuck it out with the program for all four years. The Champions of the 2015 Mountain West Tournament vaulted the Nance, Jr. legacy up into the ether.

The 2015 run was something to behold. A showdown with Boise State in the Semifinals led to an overtime classic. Larry Nance, Jr. had 20 in the 71-66 classic Wyoming win, giving the Cowboys a rare season sweep over the Broncos and a trip to the MW Finals. The title game matchup would be daunting against the heavily favored Aztecs of SDSU. The Cowboys had already been swept by SDSU, and Wyoming knew that they had a war ahead.

The rock fight of all rock fights occurred with Wyoming earning the automatic NCAA bid with a 45-43 win. Larry Nance, Jr. had 14 to lead the squad, and a key three-pointer from his partner in crime, Josh Adams, made the difference to stun the Aztecs. Nance still plays in the NBA today. Nance, Jr. was one of the rare four-year players during his era to get drafted in the first round by the L.A. Lakers. Stories of his dunks and playmaking will live forever in Laradise.

The 2025-26 Rodeo Includes Grand Canyon

A Final Rodeo with a mysterious horse certainly makes for better theatre. The Lopes went to Wyoming and blasted the Cowboys, 82-70. A rare double-digit home loss for improving Wyoming. The pre-holiday break meeting officially commenced GCU's status as part of the Mountain West history books.

The addition of GCU did not come without scrutiny, particularly from Boise State per an August 7th report at The Athletic:

Colorado State and Utah State backed up Boise State in the GCU portion of the 37-page filing, with all three schools seeking damages. Grand Canyon was initially slated to join in 2026-27 prior to the Pac-12 inviting the majority of the MWC's top brands.

Basketball-wise, the league benefits for one year. The USU, CSU, BSU, and SDSU foursome, departing programs who now all have angles, as we approach the meat of league play, to earn at-large bid status. Many will face GCU twice (sans CSU). That only adds more depth and scheduling optimization for the league office.

Final Rodeo Health Check Entering League Play

As we enter a full slate tonight, December 30th, the league has plenty of work to do. Grand Canyon and UNLV are behind where they wanted to be, but still are plenty talented enough to get hot in the next two months. Utah State is an expected NCAA Tournament team looking to prevent disaster. Everyone from New Mexico to SDSU has a decent enough floor today to build a resume with.

The Final Rodeo riders are about to start riding for the most important stakes. Let's see how the livestock behaves.