At the beginning of December, it started to feel like Duke's season was crumbling before it even had a chance to begin.
The Blue Devils started the season ranked seventh in the Preseason AP Poll. They returned four of their starting five that played all 37 games together in 2024-25, a year in which Duke won 29 games, the most yet in the Kara Lawson era.
And yet, on December 4, this Duke team was 3-6. But it wasn't only that the Blue Devils losing, it was how. When the clock hit zero against LSU, at home, it was Duke's fourth straight defeat, all of which were by 13 points or more.
Less than two months later, Duke has turned it around.
The Blue Devils are now 14-6, winners of 11 straight including an 9-0 start to ACC play. After losing the only two single-digit games it played in the opening nine games — Baylor by six and West Virginia by eight — Duke has managed to win in a variety of situations, blowing out the likes of South Dakota State, Boston College, Georgia Tech and Pitt, each by 40+, and also with three narrow wins in a row against Cal (by four), Stanford (seven) and Virginia (seven).
It's easy to say this shift in results is merely due to the change in competition. Duke's last three defeats were to South Carolina, UCLA and LSU, yes, but none of them were particularly close, and the Blue Devils failed to do the one thing they've prided themselves on for years under Lawson: Disrupt their opponent.
That four-game losing streak — the first lost coming to South Florida — saw Duke allow more than 83 points in each of those games. The Blue Devils allowed 83 or more just three times total in 24-25.
Since then, the vaunted Duke defense has found its rhythm, allowing 54.6 points per game during the 11-game winning streak. Compared to last season, this defense doesn't quite turn opponents over at the same rate (25.0% to 20.6% this year), but they make up for it with an elite block rate (13.4%, 16th in NCAA) and a much stronger discipline at avoiding fouls (20.0% to 17.0% in foul rate this year).
Duke under Lawson is always going to be a team that prefers to grind its opponents into a fine pulp, and that has still been true while the Blue Devils return to their winning ways. It's been especially impressive at the perimeter, where Duke is simply not letting opponents beat it with the three ball (eighth-lowest opponent three-point rate in the nation).
The continued emergence of sophomore Toby Fournier has always felt like the catalyst for this year's team, and that continues to be true.
She was important for the Blue Devils as well in her first season, but played just over 20 minutes off the bench and felt like she had so much more room to grow. A lot of that is coming through in year two, with Fournier's scoring (13.2 to 17.7 PPG), rebounding (5.3 to 7.6 RPG) and shot blocking (1.1 to 2.2 BPG) taking massive leaps. Fournier also gets to the line about as well as anyone in the country (6.5 FTA per game), but her poor efficiency there (52.7%) is a continued sore spot.
Fournier leads the team in scoring, but it's a well-rounded attack thanks to three of the returning starters averaging double figures alongside her. Taina Mair (11.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.3 APG) is a do-it-all guard on the offensive end and a key defensive disruptor (2.3 SPG) for Duke defensively. Also significant: She hits her free throws (90.9%), something the Blue Devils struggle with as a team.
Ashlon Jackson (12.4 PPG, 4.6 APG) also is strong from the stripe (86.0%), and is the secondary facilitator in the offense, as well as the team's highest volume shooter with more than six three attempts per game. Her efficiency on the season doesn't standout, but recently Jackson's hit her stride with a three-point percentage of 37% or better in five of the last seven games.
The final double-digit scorer is Delaney Thomas (10.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.9 SPG). She's a tremendously important piece of this rotation, and the most efficient interior scorer the team has, with a 62.6% shooting percentage. Fournier's gravity helps Thomas dominate at the rim, and she's also a tremendous defender at nearly two steals per contest. These core scorers all have an impact, but none of them have an on/0ff impact nearly at the level of Thomas: Duke has a +31.1 net rating with her on the floor and a +4.9 rating with her off.
The 11-game winning streak also coincided with the decision to move Maryland transfer Riley Nelson into the starting lineup for Jadyn Donovan. Donovan — one of the Duke returnees who started every game last season — has missed the past eight games with an injury.
Since becoming a starter, Nelson's averaged 11.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG and 3.2 APG whle shooting 46.2% from deep. She's also cut her turnover rate down more than six percentage points and has given Duke an extremely steady starting unit it can rely on.
The results are clear: The Mair-Jackson-Nelson-Fournier-Thomas lineup holds a +32.4 net rating compared to a +8.7 rating for the previous starting five. During the 11-game streak, the starting five has a +44.8 rating.
If teams get past the new starting five, there's also two shot-blocking menaces waiting for them on the bench: Jordan Wood and Arianna Roberson each average over a block per game in less than 20 minutes apiece.
This Blue Devils roster came into the season with lofty expectations, a whole lot of returning experience at the top of the lineup and a budding superstar that could ignite them even further. All of that remains true, and that 3-6 skid to begin the season is only getting harder and harder to see in the rearview mirror.
Those experiences should only help this unit as it moves past ACC play into the NCAA Tournament. Before that though, Louisville is also undefeated at the top of the conference with similar non-con losses on the résumé (UConn, Kentucky, South Carolina). All of that makes the Feb. 5 showdown a massive one for both programs.
Is Duke ready to take that next step and truly compete as one of the best teams in the country? It seemed like there was an emphatic answer to that question early in the season, but it may have been too soon to write off these Blue Devils after all if they continue on this path.
