SEC basketball is in an interesting spot a quarter of the way through the 2025-26 season.
Who’s trending up and who’s trending down?
Let’s discuss.
SEC Title Contenders?
It’s early, but these teams may have what it takes to win a conference title.
Alabama (7-2)
I think the Crimson Tide has the highest potential of an SEC team. Alabama has three quality wins against Illinois, St. John’s, and Clemson, and Nate Oats’ squad has done with several players in and out of the lineup due to injury. At full strength? This might be the conference’s only national title contender. The offense will once again make the Tide go, and few teams can match their offensive firepower.
Vanderbilt (9-0)
One team that can is Vanderbilt (third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency). I’ve heard all the chatter about how the Commodores have “played no one” and won’t hold up in SEC play. Here’s what we know: Vanderbilt has four top 50ish wins and an average margin of victory of 23.8 points per game in its nine-game winning streak to start the season. Only Alabama has a better group of victories. Mark Byington’s team has throttled nearly every opponent on its schedule, which is all you can ask to this point.
Arkansas (7-2)
The Hogs have momentum after scoring one of the SEC’s most impressive wins against Louisville. There were close calls against Winthrop and Samford, but that was a team working out the kinks. What we’ve seen since then is a high-potential title contender with one of the country’s most electric backcourts and a frontcourt that is starting to find its way.
Florida (5-4)
The number in the loss column is surprising for the defending national champions, but no one should scoff at a six-point loss to Arizona, a one-point loss at Duke, and a four-point loss against UConn in the Huskies' home away from home at Madison Square Garden. Plus, Xavian Lee has started to figure it out with two of his best games in a Florida uniform coming in the past three games. If the Gators can ever hit a 3-point shot (27.3 percent for 344th nationally), they're going to be a tall task for opposing SEC teams.
Tennessee (7-3)
Some may argue against the Vols’ inclusion in this section, but they may have a case. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before in the Rick Barnes era at Tennessee: The offense has left a lot to be desired, but the defense is going to be elite. I’m banking on the Vols finding a way to defeat Louisville next week in Knoxville to snap a three-game losing streak. If they don’t, start playing The Who, because they’re moving down this list.
Who Are You?
Whether it’s mixed results or a lack of solid competition, these teams’ spot in the pecking order is yet to be determined.
Auburn (7-3)
It wouldn’t be a stretch to put the Tigers in the SEC title contenders section. They earned two nice wins against St. John’s and NC State, and had every opportunity to beat Houston in the one-point loss on November 16. Keyshawn Hall and Tahaad Pettiford are all-SEC talents. But we can’t ignore the 102-72 loss to Michigan and 97-68 loss at Arizona. Yes, those are arguably the two best teams in college basketball, and many teams would struggle in those scenarios. But they were lopsided enough results to land them in this category for now.
Georgia (8-1)
I mentioned in last week’s column that I’m all-in on the Bulldogs. They’re so fun to watch as the nation’s second-fastest team on offense, and the only blemish on the resume is an overtime loss to Clemson in Charleston. However, Georgia’s best win is Xavier (No. 83 in KenPom), and it only has one more non-conference game against a top 75 team (vs. Cincinnati in Atlanta on Saturday). We may not know who the Bulldogs are until they tip off SEC play against Auburn on January 3.
LSU (8-1)
Losing Jalen Reed for the season is a brutal blow for the Tigers. They hammered DePaul by 33 and squeaked out a 78-69 overtime win at Boston College in their first two games without them, but didn’t fare so well in the third in a 82-58 loss to Texas Tech. Mike Nwoko, Dedan Thomas, Marquel Sutton, and Max Mackinnon have had great starts to the season, and that’s a nucleus that can push LSU back to the NCAA Tournament. But it’s fair to question just how good this team can be since it doesn’t have a single top 125 victory yet.
A Slippery Slope
Don’t call Kenny Loggins yet, but charge your phone.
Missouri (8-2)
It’s been a disappointing week or so for this set of Tigers, as Missouri dropped a game at Notre Dame and lost by 20 to rival Kansas in Kansas City. The biggest issue - more so than the one LSU is facing - is that eight of Missouri’s nine wins are against Quad 4 competition, the most of any team in the SEC (the second-most may surprise you, but we’ll get to them in a bit). To highlight the further gap between the two Tigers, LSU sits at No. 38 in the NET, while Missouri is No. 72. The only remaining non-conference game that will move the needle is a pre-Christmas clash with Illinois on December 22 in St. Louis.
Texas (7-3)
Just how good the Longhorns are is a mystery 10 games into the season. They have a top 25 offense, but the 103rd-ranked defense. Their three losses aren’t all that bad: 75-60 to Duke, 88-69 to Virginia, and 87-86 to Arizona State in Maui. It’s just that their wins outside of NC State (102-97 in Maui) are doing absolutely nothing for their NCAA Tournament goals: vs. No. 211 Southern, vs. No. 327 Lafayette, vs. No. 346 Kansas City, vs. No. 349 Rider, vs. No. 360 Fairleigh Dickinson, and Division II Chaminade. Go win at UConn on Friday, and now we’re talking.
Oklahoma (6-3)
Speaking of defensive issues, the Sooners have the worst adjusted defensive efficiency of any SEC team (115th nationally). Losses to Gonzaga (83-68), Nebraska (105-99), and Arizona State (86-70) are also not that bad all things considered, but the 18-point victory at Wake Forest in the ACC/SEC Challenge is really all we have to work with for this team through nine games. Oklahoma can take a significant step forward by knocking off undefeated Oklahoma State on Saturday in Oklahoma City.
Texas A&M (7-3)
We are seeing glimpses of Bucky Ball early in the season. But consistency has not been the Aggies’ friend. They’ve been all over the place thus far, earning a 36-point win against Florida State, while also losing by 24 at Oklahoma State, blowing a 14-point second-half lead to lose by 12 at home to UCF, and losing by 13 in overtime at home against SMU. Ruben Dominguez might be the SEC’s biggest surprise this season - 78 of his 86 shots have been 3-pointers and he’s made 37 of them - but Texas A&M will have do make up a lot of ground in SEC play to be a tournament team.
South Carolina (6-3)
The metrics don’t love the Gamecocks, and I might still be higher on their potential than most. Their best win: an 83-79 overtime triumph against No. 200 Southern Miss. Their three losses: by seven to Butler (neutral), two to Northwestern (neutral), and three in overtime to Virginia Tech (home). Simply put, South Carolina has been right there in every game its played. More will need to be done to get Lamont Paris’ group in the NCAA Tournament conversation, and next Tuesday’s game at Clemson is a huge opportunity.
Call Kenny Loggins Because You’re In The Danger Zone
The further on the edge, the hotter the intensity. Highway to the danger zone, gonna take it right into the danger zone.
Kentucky (6-4)
This is the only place to put the Wildcats a quarter of the way into the 2025-26 campaign. They are 0-4 in big games, losing by an average of 15.8 points per game, all while having people understandably question their on-court effort. The 35-point loss to Gonzaga in Nashville was a breaking point, and bouncing back with a 103-67 win against North Carolina Central doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. Remember that stat on Missouri having the most Quad 4 wins? Kentucky has the second-most, with all six wins coming in that quad. The Wildcats’ upcoming seven-day stretch of games against Indiana and St. John’s may very well define the Mark Pope era. Losing both of those games would be as danger zone as it gets.
Ole Miss (5-4)
There was some debate as to whether the Rebels should be in the slippery slope category. The decision was made to put them here because their effort has also been questioned during a four-game losing streak. After a home loss to Miami in the ACC/SEC Challenge, Chris Beard made his personal frustration known. “It is infuriating," he said. "It's concerning. I've never been in this personal situation in my coaching career." Another: “Still trying to find the guys who are willing to play hard enough to be in our program, to wear our jersey.” And another: “We can fix effort and it will be fixed.” Ole Miss responded with a better performance but still a five-point loss at St. John’s. Hopefully that’s a step in the right direction.
Mississippi State (4-5)
The Bulldogs are the furthest from the NCAA Tournament of any team in the conference. They’re 4-5 and sit at No. 153 in the NET rankings, already losing four combined games in Quad 2 and Quad 3. Their best win is by 12 on the road at Georgia Tech, a team that is unlikely to be anywhere close to dancing in the postseason. Mississippi State has won 21 games in eight SEC games in each of Chris Jans’ first three seasons in Starkville, but that streak is in jeopardy after such a poor start.
5 Upcoming SEC Games To Watch
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas - December 13, Noon ET on ESPN2 (Dallas)
It’s a rematch from the Sweet 16, which featured the Red Raiders scoring a dramatic 85-83 overtime victory after being down by 16 in the second half. Texas Tech’s 30-point loss to Purdue a few weeks ago was glaring, and Arkansas may be playing the better basketball of the two teams. The Hogs’ frontcourt needs to bring it against the duo of JT Toppin (20.8 ppg, 11.5 rpg) and LeJuan Watts (12.0 ppg, 6.1 rig).
Kentucky vs. Indiana - December 13, 7:30 PM ET on ESPN
Lamar Wilkerson, who chose Indiana over Kentucky back in April, is coming off a 44-point game against Penn State. He set a program record with 10 3-pointers. Meanwhile, in their three most recent losses to Michigan State, North Carolina, and Gonzaga, the Wildcats are 15-of-77 (19.5 percent) from beyond the arc. There’s your storyline.
Alabama vs. Arizona - December 13, 9:30 PM ET on ESPN
The Tide arguably hold the SEC’s best win thus far against Illinois in Chicago. This would top it. What a tremendous early-season matchup between two teams getting in done in different ways. Alabama is posting 39.6 percent of its points from three (29th nationally), while Arizona is posting 59.6 percent of its points from two (ninth nationally). Points will be scored in Tuscaloosa.
Tennessee vs. Louisville - December 16, 7 PM ET on ESPN
If the Vols want to snap their losing streak, they’re gonna need a great defensive effort against the Cardinals. It’s no surprise that Pat Kelsey has a top-five offense at his disposal, but Louisville couldn’t make a shot from long range at Arkansas, going just 8-of-37 from three for 21.6 percent. Of course, if Tennessee’s offense issues are on display, eight may be enough to escape with a victory.
Vanderbilt at Memphis - December 17, 7 PM ET on ESPN2
The Vanderbilt critics have been waiting for this game. If the Commodores lose, the overreaction will be loud, especially since Memphis isn’t the Memphis of a season ago. But the Tigers did notch an impressive 78-71 win against Baylor earlier in the week, and a trip to Louisville is in store before this in-state showdown. Vanderbilt has been the better and more consistent team, and these are the kinds of games you must win to be a legitimate SEC contender.
