Many of the top-rated transfers each offseason are already household names from their previous stop(s). Using ESPN’s top-100 transfers list from earlier this summer, 31 of the top 34 transfers this offseason moved from one high-major to another. The only outliers were Paulius Murauskas, Miles Byrd, and Terrence Hill Jr., who all left perennial NCAA Tournament programs in St. Mary’s, San Diego State, and VCU. Overall, 65 of the top 100 transferred from teams already within KenPom’s top five conferences (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, and Big East) — and 84 of the top 100 came from the top 10 conferences (adding the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, WCC, Missouri Valley, and the American).
Simply put, the highest-rated transfers were almost all known commodities with games against top competition under their belts. Of course, those players are likely to be the best — and are assuredly the safest in terms of guaranteeing positive impacts — but they aren’t the only players making their way to high-major rosters this season. The transfers from lower-rated conferences deserve a look, too.
Sample sizes are small, but let's look at a collection of transfers from lower levels who thrived in limited opportunities against top competition last season. The research looks at players who not only posted strong season-long numbers but also improved on them when the lights were brightest, namely in Quadrant 1+2 games or matchups with high-majors.
The sample is limited, sometimes only a handful of games, but positive results should project well for quality roles.
