Every October, when the season is still a collection of possibilities, I make a promise that is equal parts fun and dangerous: I write down my bold predictions for every single conference in college basketball.

Thirty-one conferences, thirty-one swings at something that feels just plausible enough to imagine and just risky enough to regret later.

Some of them are about teams underachieving, while others are about players having stellar seasons. Sometimes it’s a program breaking through, sometimes it’s a favorite falling short, and occasionally it’s a storyline that feels inevitable in October but slowly unravels once the games actually start.

That’s the whole point.

College basketball is a sport that thrives on uncertainty. Rosters turn over quickly, chemistry develops in ways you can’t fully see from the outside, and a season that looks predictable in the preseason rarely stays that way for long. The bold prediction column is my attempt to lean into that unpredictability rather than pretend it doesn’t exist.

But making the predictions is only half the exercise.

The other half — the more uncomfortable half — is coming back at the end of the season and seeing how they actually held up.

I’ve never wanted to be someone who just throws hot takes against the wall to see what sticks. Anyone can fire off a long list of predictions and quietly move on once the season starts rewriting the story.

That’s not the point of doing this.

If you’re going to make predictions — especially bold ones — you should be willing to stand by them. And more importantly, you should be willing to revisit them when the season is over.

Every year, some of these predictions land almost perfectly. And every year, a few of them age terribly.

Sometimes the miss is obvious almost immediately — an injury, a transfer that doesn’t work out, a team that simply isn’t what it looked like on paper. Other times the prediction isn’t technically wrong so much as it gets swallowed by the larger chaos of the season.

That’s the reality of trying to predict a sport built on volatility.

Now that the season has concluded, it's time to revisit the list. We’re going back through every bold prediction from the preseason Rauf Report — all 31 conferences — to see which ones held up, which ones missed the mark, and which ones landed somewhere in between.

To keep things simple, each prediction will fall into one of three categories:

  • Hit: The prediction essentially played out the way it was forecasted in the preseason.
  • Miss: The prediction clearly didn’t happen or missed the mark in a meaningful way.
  • Close: The prediction didn’t fully land, but the underlying idea or storyline largely held up.

The goal isn’t to stretch logic to claim victories. If a prediction didn’t happen, it didn’t happen. Accountability is the point.

Let's see how all 31 of my predictions held up!

America East

VERMONT BECOMES FIRST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY TO CLAIM CONFERENCE TITLE

Miss. Vermont ended up finishing second behind UMBC, but did recover after an 8-7 start to go 12-4 in league play. UMBC won the America East for the first time since 2021.

American

DUG MCDANIEL WINS AMERICAN PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Huge miss! Memphis may have been the most disappointing team in the country this year, putting Penny Hardaway firmly on the hot seat going into next season. McDaniel was inconsistent and erratic, but still put up decent statistical numbers (13.9 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.7 rpg). That said, his impact was nowhere near what I thought it would be.

ASUN

THERE’S A THREE-WAY TIE FOR THE CONFERENCE TITLE

Close. Central Arkansas and Austin Peay split the league's regular season title as both finished 15-3 in conference play. Queens finished third at 13-5, but went on to win the ASUN Tournament and claim the autobid. With two regular season champs and a different tournament champ, that's basically the same, right? Right?

Atlantic 10

SAINT LOUIS WINS LEAGUE TITLE BY MULTIPLE GAMES

Close. The Billikens did win the league, splitting it with VCU at 15-3 in conference play. It did look like Saint Louis was going to run away with it before stumbling to a 5-5 finish over the season's final month.

ACC

NORTH CAROLINA FINISHES AHEAD OF DUKE IN THE ACC STANDINGS

Miss. Now, look, UNC did beat Duke in the one game it played where the Tar Heels were fully healthy. And I still think the Heels may have done damage in the NCAA Tournament if Caleb Wilson didn't get hurt. But yeah — Duke was the best team in the country during the regular season.

Big 12

MILOS UZAN WINS NATIONAL PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Big miss. I know this seems rather silly in retrospect, but Uzan was so good in the second half of the 2024-25 campaign that I thought he would continue his growth in Houston's system. The senior took a step back instead, and Kingston Flemings stepped into the role as go-to guy and All-American.

Big East

GEORGETOWN FINISHES THIRD IN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

Miss. Although technically the Hoyas were the last team standing in the Big East Tournament other than UConn and St. John's, I digress. Georgetown's regular season was disastrous after a 4-0 start, and now Ed Cooley is having to retool most of his roster through the portal again.

Big Sky

MONEY WILLIAMS WINS CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE YEAR, LEADS MONTANA BACK TO NCAA TOURNAMENT

Close. Williams as a unanimous first team All-Big Sky selection and did lead Montana to the title game of the conference tournament, so it's not like this was way off. That being said, Portland State's Terri Miller Jr. won Player of the Year, and the Grizzlies fell to Idaho in that title game.

Big South

HIGH POINT CRUISES TO REGULAR SEASON TITLE, FALLS IN BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT

Another close one. High Point did cruise to the Big South title, losing just once against a 16-game conference schedule. But the Panthers cruised through the Big South Tournament as well. They were also the lowest-seeded team to win a game in the NCAA Tournament, too, and were a basket or two away from being in the Sweet 16.

Big Ten

BRADEN SMITH SETS NCAA CAREER ASSISTS RECORD

Our first clear hit! Smith finished his illustrious career at Purdue with 1,103 assists, passing Bobby Hurley's record of 1,077 that stood since the early 1990's. Smith accomplished the feat early in Purdue's first round NCAA Tournament victory over Queens.

Big West

UC IRVINE MAKES NCAA TOURNAMENT, HAS TOP 50 KENPOM DEFENSE

Close. The Anteaters did post a top-50 defense, finishing 26th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. It helped UC Irvine win the Big West regular season crown. However, Russell Turner's squad fell to Hawaii in the Big West Tournament final.

CAA

PAT SKERRY BREAKS THROUGH, TAKES TOWSON TO NCAA TOURNAMENT

I'm going to call this one close. Towson was only 9-9 in CAA play during the regular season, but got all the way to the semifinals of the conference tournament. It was seconds away from beating Hofstra, too, who ended up winning the whole thing and advancing to the Big Dance. When this is how you lost, I'm OK to call it close!

Conference USA

THREE LIBERTY PLAYERS MAKE THE ALL-CUSA FIRST TEAM

We will call this one close, too, given that Liberty had three All-CUSA players, including two on the first team. Zach Cleveland won CUSA Player of the Year, and he was joined by Brett Decker Jr. (first team) and Kaden Metheny (third team) in getting all-conference recognition.

Horizon

YOUNGSTOWN STATE MAKES FIRST EVER NCAA TOURNAMENT

Another big miss. The Penguins ended up finishing under .500 both overall (15-17) and in conference play (8-12). This never came close, sadly.

Ivy

YALE SWEEPS IVY INDIVIDUAL AWARDS

Very, very close. Yale had the Ivy League Player of the Year (Nick Townsend), Defensive Player of the Year (Casey Simmons) and it's coaching staff was the co-coaching staff of the year, splitting it with Harvard. The only award not won by a Bulldog was Rookie of the Year, which went to Columbia's Connor Igoe.

MAAC

SIENA WINS REGULAR SEASON TITLE, GERRY MCNAMARA LEAVES FOR SYRACUSE AT END OF SEASON

This is close. While Siena did not win the regular-season title, they secured the MAAC Tournament crown. McNamara, of course, accepted the head coaching position at Syracuse after nearly leading the Saints to an upset of Duke in the first round, nailing the most difficult part of the prediction.

MAC

MIAMI (OH) WINS FIRST MAC TITLE IN TWO DECADES

HIT! I certainly didn't think the RedHawks would be as dominant as they were in the regular season, going a perfect 31-0 before losing to UMass and Tennessee, but we did nail them being the best team in the MAC. And Travis Steele is back to try to do it again!

MEAC

NORFOLK STATE RETURNS TO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT; ROBERT JONES GETS HIRED AWAY

Miss. While I still think Jones should get a crack at coaching at a higher level, this season did not go the way neither he nor the Spartans anticipated. They finished 15-17 on the year, including 8-6 in league play, only claiming the No. 4 seed in the conference tournament — where they lost in the first round.

Missouri Valley

NORTHERN IOWA SWEEPS CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON AND TOURNAMENT TITLES

Man, another close one! UNI was dominant in its run through the Missouri Valley Tournament and, if wasn't dealing with injuries in January, may have cruised through the regular season as well. Instead, a five-game losing stream in January sent them from being in the mix of the title race to the No. 6 seed in the tournament.

Mountain West

GRAND CANYON HAS A BETTER SEASON THAN SAN DIEGO STATE

This was close, believe it or not! The thinking behind this was simply that the Aztecs were overrated in the preseason, which did wind up being the case. Still, they were slightly better than Grand Canyon, finishing one game ahead in the conference standings and eight spots higher on KenPom.

NEC

LIU WINS LEAGUE BY MULTIPLE GAMES, MALACHI DAVIS WINS NEC PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Close! Long Island ended up winning the league by three games and, while Malachi Davis was a first team All-NEC selection, Central Connecticut's Darin Smith Jr. was named Player of the Year in the conference. Davis was all named to the NEC's All-Tournament team after leading the Sharks to the NCAA Tournament.

OVC

JOHNATHAN LAWSON WINS OVC PLAYER OF THE YEAR

I keep getting close. Lawson was a first team All-OVC pick after averaging 16.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, and 4.1 apg for Little Rock, but the 6-foot-7 senior lost out on the award to Tennessee State's Aaron Nkrumah.

Patriot

COLGATE RETURNS TO NCAA TOURNAMENT

Miss. Lehigh ended Colgate's quest for a sixth NCAA Tournament appearance in eight years in the Patriot League semifinals. The Raiders did finish second in the regular season standings (tied with Lehigh), yet were still six games behind Navy.

SEC

TEXAS A&M FINISHES THE SEASON RANKED IN THE TOP 25

This is a miss. I will take credit for saying Texas A&M will be much better than the consensus projection, but the Aggies were never ranked in the AP Poll and finished the year ranked No. 39 on KenPom.

SoCon

WOFFORD FINISHES WITH THE LEAGUE’S BEST OFFENSE

Miss. It took new Wofford head coach Kevin Giltner a little bit to get up to speed after taking over in September, and the Terriers had a very efficient offense down the stretch. However, it still finished as the SoCon's third-best unit, trailing both Mercer and Western Carolina in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Southland

INCARNATE WORD GOES DANCING FOR THE FIRST TIME

Big miss. A projected breakout season for Shane Heirman's squad never came. The Cardinals regressed from a 19-17 record a season ago to just 12-19, and ended up missing the Southland Tournament entirely.

SWAC

JACKSON STATE SWEEPS LEAGUE TITLES, WINS FIRST FOUR GAME

Miss. Jackson State finished in the middle of a crowded SWAC and ended up losing in the tournament quarterfinals to Florida A&M. Head coach Mo Williams has since left for an assistant role with Kentucky.

Summit

ST. THOMAS WINS LEAGUE, MAKES TOURNAMENT IN FIRST SEASON ELIGIBLE

Close. The Tommies ended up second in the regular season, finishing two games behind North Dakota State. However, it was North Dakota who ended St. Thomas' postseason hopes with a free throw (after a questionable foul call) with 0.1 seconds left in the Summit League Tournament semifinals.

Sun Belt

SUN BELT REPEATS LAST SEASON’S FINAL DAY DRAMA

Finally, another hit! There was the possibility of a seven-way tie for first place on the final Friday of the Sun Belt regular season. Now, Troy ended up winning the league outright, but there were six teams that finished one game behind the Trojans in second place. No league provides final day drama like the Sun Belt!

WCC

THE WCC SENDS FOUR TEAMS TO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

I'll take this as close given the WCC ended up with three bids in Gonzaga's final season. Santa Clara joined the Bulldogs and Saint Mary's in the Big Dance, and very much looked the part all season. San Francisco looked the part for half the season, too, but stumbled once we got to the end of January.

WAC

TARLETON STATE MAKES NOISE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER

Closing on a hit. I figured Tarleton State would be noteworthy given the talent on the roster and Billy Gillispie’s track record. Unfortunately, some of that "noise" came from Gillispie stepping away in January due to health issues. On the court, Dior Johnson lived up to the hype in a bench role, averaging 24.0 points across 20 games.

Our final tally comes out to four direct hits, 15 close calls, and 12 clear misses. Not our best work, but feel good about the number of close ones where we were on the right track.

Now, to do better next season!