It's that time of year again!
Every preseason, I make one bold prediction for every conference, and every April I come back and grade myself—last season's tally: four hits, 15 close calls, and 12 clear misses. I've done better, but I've also done worse - but going out on a limb is the point of this whole exercise.
This year's version comes with a little extra chaos. There's a brand-new league in the UAC, the MAAC has been renamed the Metro, Gonzaga is playing in the Pac-12, and a slew of other conference realignment moves. Oh, there's also more roster turnover than ever—and we don't even know who's eligible to play, even though the season starts in a matter of weeks!
So, these are a little more of a shot in the dark than normal. Some of these picks are built on returning stars, some on coaches I trust, and some on gut feeling. You'll be able to tell which is which.
Let's get to it.
America East
JEREMIAH QUIGLEY WINS #AEHOOPS PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Quigley tested the portal and decided Binghamton was home after all, which is great news for anyone who likes watching a point guard run an offense. He averaged 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists last season, and nobody in this league fills up a box score quite like him.
Yes, he shot 17.4 percent from three, and that needs to improve. But everything else makes him the conference's most complete player.
American
JUSTYN FERNANDEZ WINS AMERICAN PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Fernandez is at the top of Andy Kennedy's transfer haul this offseason, and he's expected to play a major role for an offense that heavily features guards. The Delaware transfer averaged 16.6 points and shot 40.3 percent from three-point range a year ago. He's paired with two other 15-point scorers, Deuce Jones and Elijah Duval. With so much roster turnover in the league, the most efficient scorer on one of the most talented teams has a strong chance to be named player of the year.
ASUN
QUEENS RETURNS TO NCAA TOURNAMENT; WEST FLORIDA AVOIDS BASEMENT
Queens finished third in the regular season last year before winning the ASUN Tournament. Now the Royals add Wingate transfer Corbin Pack to a core that includes Nasir Mann, Jordan Watford, and Avantae Parker.
As for West Florida, welcome to Division I. Tim Hall Jr. and Minot State transfer Isaiah Alexander give the Argonauts enough frontcourt production to win the games they need to avoid last place in year one.
Atlantic 10
VCU OR SAINT LOUIS EARNS TOP-FOUR SEED IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT
Saint Louis and VCU split the league title at 15-3 last season, and both are set up to be even better. Josh Schertz brings back a deep guard group led by Trey Green (44.2 percent from three) and enough roster talent to field a top-25 team.
However, the more talented team may be in Richmond. Phil Martelli Jr. has Lazar Djokovic and Nyk Lewis back at VCU, plus productive transfers Torey Alston (Middle Tennessee) and Blake Harper (Creighton). I'm hedging on which one because I think both have the potential to be that good, but I'm not hedging on the A-10 producing a team that ends up on the four-line or better.
ACC
LOUISVILLE MAKES THE FINAL FOUR, DUKE WINS NATIONAL TITLE
Two big swings in one league, because why not. Pat Kelsey went portal shopping again and came back with Jackson Shelstad, Flory Bidunga, and Karter Knox, a Final Four-caliber haul. I know critics will point to Kelsey's NCAA Tournament history as a reason to doubt the Cardinals, but that stigma follows everyone until they eventually break through. Heck, Dan Hurley and Todd Golden were both looked at in a similar light in recent years, too! This team has the talent and fit to break through.
Duke added John Blackwell (19.1 ppg at Wisconsin) and future lottery pick Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje to the core of last season's top overall seed. They also have a more athletic and dynamic guard room than in previous years, which partly explains the recent March collapses. Scheyer keeps knocking on the door, and this is the year it opens.
Big 12
OKLAHOMA STATE MAKES THE NCAA TOURNAMENT
Steve Lutz has built slowly in Stillwater, and year three is when it pays off. Kanye Clary returns to run the show, while UCF's Jordan Burks, North Carolina's Luka Bogavac and Georgetown's Julius Halaifonua give the Cowboys real high-major experience. Add a couple of top-40 freshmen and this roster has more ways to win than any Oklahoma State team in years.
Big East
QUINN ELLIS IS AN ALL-AMERICAN
Rick Pitino went overseas for his point guard, and I think he found a star. Ellis has played at the EuroLeague level in Italy, so the competition at St. John's won't be anything he hasn't seen. Pitino's lead guards always get the keys (when he has one), and the ones who can handle it put up numbers — especially with a talented supporting cast that needs a playmaker to set the table. Ellis is a steadying presence with years of professional experience and elite basketball IQ. He has a chance to be one of the offseason's very best additions.
Big Sky
WEBER STATE FINISHES IN THE TOP TWO OR MAKES STARCH MADNESS TITLE GAME
I'm betting on the coach here more than anything. Kaleb Canales might be the most overqualified coach in mid-major basketball, and he's working with a roster full of high-major transfers who barely played last season. That's a lot of unknowns, but it's a lot of talent too. If Canales gets even half of it to click, Weber State is playing deep into March in Boise.
Big South
HIGH POINT ENTERS NCAA TOURNAMENT WITH TWO LOSSES, FLYNN CLAYMAN GETS HIRED AWAY
High Point lost one Big South game last season, then won a game in the NCAA Tournament as the lowest-seeded team to do so. Flynn Clayman reloaded with a roster that is far and away the most talented in the Big South, headlined by South Florida transfer CJ Brown. A two-loss regular season is a big ask, but this roster can do it — especially because I don't think they'll lose a conference game. A coach who keeps winning like this won't be in the Big South much longer.
Big Ten
USC EMERGES AS TOP-THREE TEAM IN THE BIG TEN
Rodney Rice was undeniably great in the six games he played last season as USC's point guard before he got hurt. Now he's healthy and gives the Trojans a legitimate all-conference-caliber lead guard to pair with what should be an elite defense. The additions of KJ Lewis from Georgetown and five-star freshman Christian Collins should help in that respect. Eric Reibe's foot surgery hurts early on, but the frontcourt has a ton of depth. If Alijah Arenas becomes more efficient and is smarter with his shot selection, this team could be really dangerous.
Big West
THERE'S A THREE-WAY TIE FOR THE CONFERENCE TITLE
The Big West has more parity than ever after realignment, and everyone in the top half of the league looks capable of beating each other on any given night. I don't think much will separate teams like UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, UC San Diego, and newcomer Utah Valley. I think we'll see three of them finish the regular season with the same league record at the top of the standings.
CAA
UNCW MAKES SECOND NCAA TOURNAMENT IN THREE SEASONS, TAKAYO SIDDLE GETS HIRED AWAY
UNCW is going old-school this year: experienced, and lots of it. CJ Luster II is back after missing last season, and Patrick Wessler and Gavin Walsh hold down the frontcourt. Northeastern's William Kermoury and Navy's Tyler Nelson add even more veteran scoring. Siddle has been one of the best coaches in the CAA for a while, and another trip to the Big Dance should finally earn him a high-major call.
Conference USA
LIBERTY ONLY LOSES ONE CONFERENCE GAME ALL SEASON
Last year I said Liberty would put three players on the All-CUSA first team, and they came close with three All-CUSA selections, two on the first team. This year the Flames went heavy into D-II, adding Dillon Claussen, Osmar Garcia-Araujjo and Matthew Shelton, plus the Campbell brothers from Troy. Ritchie McKay turns talented, unproven rosters into machines, and this one should cruise.
Horizon
GREEN BAY CHALLENGES FOR A CONFERENCE TITLE
I don't know if the Phoenix will be in the thick of the regular-season title race or make a run through the conference tournament, but I think Doug Gottlieb's squad can make some real noise this season. The improvement from Gottlieb's first season to his second was massive, especially offensively, with a shift to a slower tempo. With Marcus Hall returning to lead the way, Green Bay will take another step forward in 2026-27.
Ivy
HARVARD WINS FIRST OUTRIGHT IVY REGULAR SEASON TITLE SINCE 2014
Yale swept almost every Ivy award last year, but Harvard is the team with everyone coming back. Robert Hinton, Tey Barbour, and Thomas Batties II all return, giving Tommy Amaker the league's most experienced starting group. In a conference where continuity is king, the Crimson have it.
MAC
MIAMI (OH), TOLEDO SPLIT CONFERENCE TITLE, FACE OFF IN MAC TOURNAMENT
Miami went 31-0 before finally losing in March, and Travis Steele brings back impact players Evan Ipsaro and Luke Skaljac. I don't think the RedHawks run the table again, though, and Toledo will be right there with them every step of the way. UMass Lowell's Angel Montas and Marquette's Sean Jones give Tod Kowalczyk a lot more firepower. These two finish tied and meet again in Cleveland with an NCAAT berth on the line.
MEAC
CEDRIC TAYLOR III SWEEPS MEAC PLAYER OF THE YEAR AND DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Taylor tested the portal and came back, and Howard should be thrilled. He already won Newcomer of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year last season while averaging 17.2 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. With Bryce Harris out of eligibility, Taylor is now the best player on the league's best team, and he's still its most disruptive defender.
Metro
SAINT PETER'S WINS THE REGULAR-SEASON TITLE, BRYCE EATON WINS PLAYER OF THE YEAR
The magazines have Saint Peter's sixth or seventh, which feels low for a team that went 14-6 and didn't lose a league game at home. Bryce Eaton is back to run things, and Bashir Mason added a pair of D-II bucket-getters in Ken Walker (21.3 ppg) and Xavier Thomas (16.3 ppg). Siena and Merrimack are both starting over, while the Peacocks return their point guard and supplemented scoring around him.
Missouri Valley
MURRAY STATE WINS REGULAR SEASON CROWN BY MULTIPLE GAMES
Murray State went international this offseason, and I'm here for it. Pavle Nikolic was the Young Player of the Year in the ABA League, and Mark Padjen put up solid numbers there too. Pair them with Roman Domon (14.2 ppg) and Belmont big Brigham Rogers, and Murray has the most talented roster in the Valley. Just look at what they did on their European tour this summer.
Mountain West
BOTH GRAND CANYON AND NEW MEXICO MAKE NCAA TOURNAMENT
The Mountain West lost some heavyweights to the Pac-12, but it's still a two-bid league. Jake Hall tested the portal and returned to New Mexico after averaging 16.3 points on 45.1% shooting from three. Grand Canyon kept Makaih Williams and added Wake Forest's Omaha Biliew and St. John's Dylan Darling. Both teams can win a lot of games in this league.
NEC
MERCYHURST WINS THE NEC REGULAR-SEASON TITLE
I said last year LIU would win this league by multiple games, and the Sharks won it by three. This year, LIU is incredibly talented again, but has a lot more question marks. Mercyhurst, meanwhile, made the tournament title game, brought back Jake Lemelman, and stole Tennessee Rainwater from Le Moyne.
OVC
TENNESSEE STATE REPEATS AS OUTRIGHT REGULAR-SEASON CHAMPION, NOLAN SMITH GETS HIRED AWAY
Losing the OVC Player of the Year, the tournament MVP, and a 17-point scorer would sink most teams. Nolan Smith replaced them with Ty-Laur Johnson from San Diego, Arterio Morris from Bethune-Cookman, and former Memphis big man Aaron Bradshaw. That's more talent than last year's champs had. The extension through 2031 was nice, but a Duke legend winning back-to-back titles will get high-major calls.
Patriot
ANDREW ALEKSEYENKO WINS PATRIOT LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE YEAR AS A SOPHOMORE
Hank Alvey is the preseason pick, and that's understandable, but Lehigh just lost a 20-point scorer in Nasir Whitlock. Alekseyenko is coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign where he averaged 14.8 points and 6.7 rebounds while shooting 38.3% from deep. With Jalen Cox off to the Big Ten, Colgate's offense runs through him now, and I expect him to deliver.
Pac-12
MASSAMBA DIOP WINS PAC-12 PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Gonzaga's first season in the new Pac-12 needs a star, and Diop might be it. The Arizona State transfer averaged 13.6 points and 5.8 rebounds as a freshman, and Mark Few's development track record with bigs speaks for itself. Braden Huff will have something to say about this, sure, but Diop is the most versatile player the Zags have had since Chet Holmgren.
I think he'll emerge as the best and most important player on a team that should win the league with ease.
SEC
PJ HAGGERTY WINS SEC PLAYER OF THE YEAR
I told you last year Texas A&M would finish in the Top 25. It didn't, but I'm not done with the Aggies. Bucky McMillan landed Haggerty, who averaged 23.4 points at Kansas State and has never met a shot he didn't like. He'll have the ball in his hands as much as any player in the league, and I think he'll have the numbers to back it up.
Remember, Haggerty was a second-team All-American just two seasons ago while playing for Memphis in a similar up-tempo system. With more lanes open for him to attack the basket and get to the foul line, another massive season for Haggerty should be in store.
Plenty of competition will be in the mix, and Florida might have the two or three next-best candidates — but that means they could take votes away from each other.
SoCon
TENNESSEE TECH FINISHES IN THE TOP FOUR IN ITS FIRST SOCON SEASON
Tobin Anderson took FDU past Purdue, so a SoCon top-four finish feels doable. He brought in a deep transfer class: Trent Mosquera, Davante Hackett, Caleb Hollenbeck, D-II rebounder Shaun Arnold, and ACU's Chilaydrien Newton. Meanwhile, ETSU and Furman are both replacing most of their production. This is a good year to be the new kid.
Southland
MCNEESE WINS A FOURTH STRAIGHT SOUTHLAND TOURNAMENT TITLE
Larry Johnson tested the portal and came back, and that's the most important news in the Southland. He averaged 17.4 points as a freshman, and Bill Armstrong surrounded him with high-major transfers from Ole Miss, Utah, Mississippi State, and Florida State. SFA lost its top two scorers, so McNeese is the clear favorite once more.
SWAC
BETHUNE-COOKMAN MAKES ITS FIRST NCAA TOURNAMENT
Reggie Theus finally broke through with a SWAC regular-season title last season, then watched an 8-seed win the tournament. This year, he reloaded with D-I transfers Koron Davis, Karmello Branch, Jameel Morris, and Daniel Johnson, while nearly every other contender lost its best player.
Bethune-Cookman has never played in the Big Dance — that changes in March.
Summit
ST. THOMAS WINS THE SUMMIT OUTRIGHT AND GOES DANCING FOR THE FIRST TIME
I'm going back to the well after picking the Tommies last year, even after Nolan Minessale and Nick Janowski transferred out. Johnny Tauer has led the league in offense every year since St. Thomas moved up. He has a new scorer in D-II transfer Brogan Madson (19.1 ppg) and still has Carter Bjerke, who shot 44.9 percent from three last season. North Dakota State lost its top five scorers, so the door is wide open.
Sun Belt
APPALACHIAN STATE MAKES THE NCAA TOURNAMENT
Last year I said the Sun Belt would come down to the final day again, and six teams finished a game behind Troy. The top of the conference is wide open once more, and App State has been the most consistent program in a topsy-turvy league. Newcomers will have to carry the backcourt, but they're solid options — Ben Kopetzki averaged 21.1 points at Concordia St. Paul, and Stonehill's Hermann Koffi adds another 12-point option.
If they can add shooting and scoring pop to what could be the Sun Belt's best defense for the third time in four years, look out. Dustin Kerns has been close before, and this is the year he gets back to the Big Dance.
UAC
AUSTIN PEAY WINS THE UAC'S FIRST REGULAR-SEASON TITLE
Little Rock is the preseason favorite after a massive transfer haul, but almost all of last year's roster is gone. Austin Peay kept Rashaud Marshall (16.3 ppg) and Zyree Collins, two key pieces from a team that shared last year's ASUN title. Continuity wins a lot of close games, and the Govs have more of it than anyone else in this new league.
WCC
FIRST TIME NEITHER GONZAGA NOR SAINT MARY'S WINS THE LEAGUE SINCE 2000
Yes, this prediction is only possible because Gonzaga isn't in the league anymore, but I also don't think Randy Bennett's departure from Saint Mary's is being properly accounted for, either. Saint Mary's won't be bad, but we don't really know what to expect from Mickey McConnell as a head coach. Add in strong rosters at Santa Clara and San Francisco, among others, and I think we'll see a new team at the top of the WCC standings.
