Legendary coaches and blue bloods litter the East Region, but do any of them have a chance of knocking out the overall #1 seed Duke? Let's dive in, looking at the East Region through that lens...
GREENVILLE POD
Duke's path begins with MAAC champion Siena, who more than likely is seeing their last game with Gerry McNamara at the helm. Also probably more than likely that Scheyer opts to rest Pat Ngongba here, especially with the size advantage Duke already enjoys. Siena's offense is almost totally halfcourt based, and they really want to limit possessions in general, with a 4th percentile transition rate offensively and a 19th percentile defensive transition rate allowed (per Synergy data). Siena runs mostly off-ball screening and cutting motion to free up crafty wing scorer Gavin Doty (who can play 0n-ball efficiently also as a strong rim finisher), but Justice Shoats can provide some on-ball and isolation scoring when needed. Francis Folefac is undersized height wise, but is a stout post scorer/drop off threat around the rim. Defensively the Saints will primarily be in drop coverage, especially with the rise of former Iowa 7 footer Riley Mulvey, whose rim defense helped fuel Siena's dominant defensive run in Atlantic City, where no opponent even sniffed 1 PPP. Mulvey really stepped up in the absence of the recently declared ineligible Antonio Chandler. While Siena's rim defense was stout (and stouter with Mulvey, where they've actually been a top 60 defense in a limited March sample and 2nd nationally in 2PT% defense), the Saints were really inefficient defending on the ball, grading out in the 14th percentile in ball screen defense efficiency rating and 1st percentile defending off the dribble offense- not exactly ideal when playing predominantly drop coverage.
Duke doesn't run a ton of offense on the ball, and even less without Caleb Foster, but obviously Siena has no realistic matchup against Cam Boozer, and Duke's length in their switch is absolute hell no cutting/screening based offenses like Siena. There's no reasonable path to offense here for the Saints, but they'll grind it down and I don't think Duke has any real interest in running this thing up unnecessarily given they just played until Saturday night to win the ACC tournament with a shorthanded roster (and Cam Boozer was visibly gassed out there). I'm also vaguely interested in the fact that Siena's closest resume comp on Torvik is a 2014 Albany team that actually led future Final Four participant Florida in the 2H. Duke advances of course, but just maybe not in full blown humiliation fashion.
Duke will then have the winner of the 8/9 matchup in Greenville, which is Ohio State and TCU. Bruce Thornton carried the previously bubbly Buckeyes all the way to home jerseys this week, but faces a tough matchup against TCU's aggressive ball screen defense that will switch (95th percentile isolation rate forced) and hedge/trap at high rates (98th percentile rate, per Synergy data).
Jake Diebler, while often not regarded as a coaching luminary, actually schemed effectively down the stretch against defenses that wanted to hedge out on Thornton, particularly Iowa in the B1G tournament, who had just shut him down two weeks prior. Thornton was elite in ball screens (98th percentile scoring efficiency) and off the dribble (87th percentile), but TCU's high hedge essentially eliminates both. The difference in Thornton's game this season? He's been used off the ball at a 72nd percentile rate with a 92nd percentile scoring efficiency, as opposed to 16th percentile rate and a 12th percentile efficiency rating last season (per Synergy data).
TCU offensively isn't particularly skilled, and can really struggle when denied rim and transition. OSU isn't a going to protect the rim at anything resembling a high level, but they are elite in transition denial (6th percentile allowed). Ohio State has been a top 5 team overall in March, and the third most efficient offense in the country per Torvik filtering, and Diebler has proven he can work Thornton around off the ball and Juni Mobley can bury the catch and shoots on the weakside advantage the high hedge allows for, although the Frogs have the athleticism to effectively avoid the mismatches OSU likes to create with Royal and Bynum against bigger but less athletic frontcourts. Additionally, the Frogs can really supplement on the offensive glass and free throw line in this matchup. As far as challenging Duke in the second round, TCU's ability to play up against Michigan, Florida, and Wisconsin in OOC play and beat Iowa State and win at Texas Tech (as well as probably should have won at Kansas) prove their athletic double teams against bigger teams is capable of causing havoc and disrupting offensive flow. In 13 games vs top 50 teams, TCU has been a top 15 defense overall from an efficiency standpoint and generated a top 20 defensive turnover rate in those games (per Torvik). TCU would undoubtedly swarm Boozer on the touch, and try to expose some of Duke's on-ball issues and lack of catch and shoot options besides Slim Evans with Caleb Foster out. But ultimately TCU's lack of offensive punch (besides David Punch) against Duke's elite defense would be the overriding issue for the Frogs.
SAN DIEGO POD
Moving out of the Greenville pod to San Diego, we have Kansas as the 4 and St. John's as the 5, which probably should have been switched, but immaterial for the sake of this exercise. Kansas' road/neutral offensive woes and shot volume concerns are major red flags in this tournament. The Jayhawks are 308th in eFG% in games away from Phog Allen and 330th in 2PT% offense, and they don't rebound offensively, get to the FT line, shoot a high rate of 3PTAs, or generate turnovers to make up for that. 13 seed Cal Baptist is a very small team on average, but won the WAC on the strength of their strict drop coverage principles defensively, where they denied catch and shoots to the tune of a 15th percentile allowed (and absolutely no one hit the triples they were allowed, as opposing offenses hit threes against the Lancers at the 6th lowest percentage in the country) and defended the rim with an 87th percentile efficiency rating. Offensively, the Lancers were carried by Dom Daniels, who is absolutely one of those "elite guards get it done in March" archetypes.
Daniels owns the highest ball screen rate in the entire country, and put up these lines against Big 12 competition this year (I'm willing to discount that BYU performance given he was on one day rest in back to back altitude). Kansas is an elite defensive team despite not forcing turnovers at all, and that's thanks to Flory Bidunga's ability to switch 1-5 or effectively soft hedge and recover with his mobile athleticism, but they have graded out in just the 57th percentile in ball screen defensive efficiency rating. CBU actually owns the shot volume edge here (95th percentile in REB+TO differential per CBBAnalytics, compared to 63rd for KU), and they have far less travel issues coming from the Inland Empire to San Diego. This is a very reasonable upset target game.
Ironically one of the most popular upset targets will be in the same pod, with 12 seed Northern Iowa already a trendy pick based on Selection Sunday reactions (including myself). There is good reason to believe the Panthers can give be a problem for 5 seed St. John's. UNI's pack line defensive scheme will force you to beat them over the top (9th percentile rim rate allowed), not something the Johnnies are particularly adept at doing, and they're a top 25 defensive rebounding team nationally with the lowest transition rate allowed in the country. That mitigates two paths of supplemental offense for the Johnnies. The Panthers are a top 20 defensive team per Torvik, but in 18 road/neutral games they were top 10, which included a win at UC Irvine and what coulda/shoulda/woulda been a win at St. Mary's, which doesn't happen for anyone in Moraga. UNI is certainly facing a talent/athleticism gap here, and Zuby Ejiofor's dramatically improved passing out of what will be a high rate of UNI double teams within their pack line scheme is a big issue, but the Panthers are long across the backcourt/wings, and run their offense through big and athletic Trey Campbell, a senior guard who won't be intimidated by St. John's ball pressure, and have a shut down defender on the perimeter in Leon Bond. Perhaps the Johnnies simply out athlete and outsize here, but schematically I think the Panthers are up for the challenge, which makes this San Diego pod a potential source of chaos. Should San Diego turn into Upset City like I think it could, obviously that makes Duke's path to the Elite 8 even easier. Should chalk hold, we've seen Duke overwhelm Kansas already this season (albeit without Darryn Peterson), and St. John's would run into the same issues they would have against UNI, only in truly elite form- they can't score at the rim or in transition against the Blue Devils. I will say Duke would probably want to face KU in a chalk scenario rather than St. John's, as Dillon Mitchell's length/athleticism could theoretically let the Johnnies play Boozer straight up, and we've seen their ball pressure severely disrupt screen heavy offenses like UConn. Duke would also really benefit from a healthy Ngongba in this matchup more than any other potential foe in the top half of the bracket.
BUFFALO POD
Moving to the bottom half of the East Region, let's start in the Buffalo pod with 6 Louisville vs 11 South Florida in what could be an exceptional thriller. Both offenses play fast (80th+ percentile transition rates) and spread the floor with high 3PTA rates, particularly the Cardinals, who are 4th nationally in 3PTA rate. USF gets up their triples generally out of shrinks and kick outs, while the Cardinals run a fairly nontraditional hand-off/screen heavy system typical of a Kelsey offense to fire away from deep. Louisville has generally had major issues stopping the ball on the perimeter, which makes this a dangerous matchup given CJ Brown and Wes Enis' speed in that regard. Additionally, USF is a much more prolific rim offense (remember, this is a Nate Oates inspired scheme after all), with a 97th percentile rim rate to match their 97th percentile catch and shoot rate. Izaiyah Nelson is easily the best big in this game, as Louisville's frontcourt has been a sucking chest wound down the stretch for the Cardinals, while USF has been a top 25 2PT% defense all season. The elephant in the room of course for Louisville is Mikel Brown's status, as rumors out of Louisville suggest his reaggravated back injury isn't actually all that close to being cleared up. The Bulls advancing is going to be a popular pick, but with a definite backbone behind just "vibes".
3 seed Michigan State heads to Buffalo stumbling a bit, as they followed up their all out effort vs Michigan to close the regular season with a hasty exit in Chicago after Donovan Dent picked apart their PNR coverage. They'll have Summit champs North Dakota State in Buffalo, which is probably a fairly strong matchup for Sparty. NDSU is an elite 3PT shooting team, which is a requisite against Michigan State's hedge and notorious gap help from the nail. The Bison are a 93rd percentile catch and shoot rate offense with a 93th percentile efficiency rating, but their looks are borne from an inside out offense with an 82th percentile post rate, despite being severely undersized (339th in average height per KenPom). NDSU was a shot volume behemoth vs a midmajor only schedule this season, but that's obviously going to be put to the test against Sparty's two big lineup. NDSU defensively switched things up this season, as Dave Richman typically passively dropped last year, but they were an aggressive hedge, denial, and help defense this year, much like Sparty in fact. That ability to deny the rim and Fears (90th percentile in both ball screen and post doubles) and force catch and shoots against MSU is potentially NDSU's path to an upset here, as well as their transition denial, where they allowed just an 11th percentile rate (always at the top of the scouting report against an Izzo offense). At first blush I announced on X that this was a rough matchup for NDSU in terms of a big upset, but on closer inspection, I'm warming more and more to the Bison's chances to at least compete with multiple shooters and forcing jump shots in a battle of similar defensive schemes- I just worry about the lack of overall size and lack of data vs top tier competition for this new defensive scheme from Richman.
Looking ahead to the second round, I think Sparty would probably prefer Louisville, as this would be like the Tennessee game all over again for the Cardinals (granted, Louisville didn't have Brown), where they were manhandled in the paint and couldn't stay in front of Gillespie. USF could pose more of challenge to Sparty, but it's hard to get to those drive and kicks against MSU's defensive scheme and transition denial. I will note that since February Sparty has barely been a top 70 defense while allowing one of the 20 highest 3PTA rates in the country. That's a potential issue given their lack of shooting vs the elite shooting ability of every other team in this Buffalo pod.
PHILADELPHIA POD
7 seed UCLA has to head back out to the east coast, which I'm sure drew Mick Cronin's immediate ire. The Bruins are reportedly healthy with Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau being cleared (although I will note everyone is cleared immediately before Selection Sunday) for 10 UCF. The Bruins' offense has been humming PNR and with a smaller lineup, as Dent has been arguably the best point guard in the country over the past month and a half. UCLA has been a top 10 offense in that span, but they've been a bottom 200 2PT% defense as well. The good news is UCF struggles to finish at the rim and has been 287th in 2PT% offense in that same stretch that UCLA has struggled with rim defense. The trouble for UCLA could come against UCF's ball screen and iso heavy offense that hunts mismatches quickly and relentlessly. UCLA is not a strong defense in isolation, which infamously prompted Cronin's switch to zone for a stretch this season, but UCF struggled badly against the Big 12's hedge heavy schemes this season. Despite heading east, I think UCLA survives this matchup.
The lower half of the Philly pod features 2 UConn vs 15 Furman, which is a fascinating halfcourt offense showcase. Furman could be accurately described as a midmajor UConn in terms of their halfcourt structure offensively, where they screen and cut at high rates rather than create on the ball. They do have a high major talent with high major size on the ball in Alex Wilkins, an elite shot creator and scorer, if highly volatile in terms of turnovers. I actually don't think this is the worst matchup for the Paladins, as coming from the SoCon they're extremely well-versed in chasing off-ball screens, where practically every offense is some form of motion. In fact, Furman defended off-ball screens at a 99th percentile rate (but with a not particularly robust 45th percentile efficiency rating), and their drop coverage was the best in the SoCon, and drop is definitely the preferred way to defend the Huskies' actions if you can switch on their screening and force them into on-ball creation. While this one might be closer than expected, UConn's next matchup against UCLA or UCF were both lost in the sauce defending off the ball (3rd and 33rd percentile defensive efficiency ratings in 0ff-ball screen defense, respectively), but UCLA's PNR offense would be a major issue for the Huskies. Looking ahead to the regional semis, both USF and Louisville would struggle against UConn's ability to simultaneously hedge with Tarris Reed while guarding their yard on the perimeter to take away 3PTAs and catch and shoots (9th percentile catch and shoot rate allowed), while hedging and helping against UConn like Sparty does could be a death sentence. The most similar offensive profile to UConn in the B1G was a skeleton crew Minnesota, whose screening had MSU's frontcourt in a blender.
PROJECTION: 1 DUKE over 2 UCONN
While I think the East could see seeds 11-14 legitimately challenge for upsets, I project an ultimate chalk 1 vs 2 in the regional finals with Duke vs UConn. Assuming a healthy Ngongba, this would be a tough matchup for the Huskies' patterned offense with Duke's elite switchability on their off-ball actions. My wild card here however would be UCLA knocking off UConn in the second round while advancing to the regional finals against Duke, as the Bruins could shred UConn's PNR defense and particularly their ball screen coverage, which has been a recurring issue throughout Big East play against otherwise inferior teams like Marquette and Providence.
BIGGEST POTENTIAL UPSET:
I'm not sure 11 seed South Florida really catches the spirit of upset, especially if Louisville enters the tournament without Mikel Brown, but the gap between seeds 1-4 vs 13-16 is the widest it has ever been analytically, so it's becoming increasingly difficult to see a FGCU/FDU/St. Peter's type team in the first weekend. 12 seed Northern Iowa over St. John's is going to be popular as well, and with rational reasoning. UCLA advancing past UConn to the Sweet 16 would qualify here as well I would think.
