Following last year's chalky NCAA Tournament, a popular narrative has taken hold: Cinderella is dead and upsets will be fewer and far between.

The transfer portal has concentrated talent at the top. NIL has widened the resource gap. Power conference rosters are older, deeper, and more athletic than ever. The result, many believe, is a tournament where the giants have never been harder to slay.

Maybe that’s true.

But the NCAA tournament has a funny way of ignoring whatever story we convince ourselves is inevitable.

Every March we arrive with the same assumptions — the metrics are airtight, the seeds are deserved, the favorites are simply too good. And every March, somewhere between Thursday afternoon and Sunday night, our brackets completely unravel anyway.

Because the tournament has never really been about brand names or budget gaps. It’s about matchups. It’s about guards who can control a game for five minutes and veteran teams that don’t blink in the face of game pressure. And every year, there are a handful of games where the ingredients for chaos are sitting right there in plain sight.

If the “Cinderella is dead” narrative is going to hold, this bracket will prove it. But I’m not convinced that’s the case.

Here are the nine double-digit seeds I’m picking to win in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament, starting with a pair of 10-seeds going through a trio (!!!) of 13-seeds.

(10) UCF over (7) UCLA

My beloved chaos agents are going to win at least one game in the NCAA Tournament.

I've called UCF a chaos team all season because, well, they play a chaotic style that leads to chaotic outcomes! The Knights play at a fast pace offensively, trying to get out in transition whenever they can to attack opposing defenses before they get set. They're also a very capable three-point shooting team (top 50 nationally) and have perhaps the nation's most underrated point guard in Themus Fulks.

This style has allowed the Knights to pick up notable victories over Texas A&M, Kansas, fully healthy Texas Tech, and BYU. Their wins over the Aggies and Cougars came on the road, too, so it's not like the Knights are simply relying on their home court advantage.

But since that BYU win on Feb. 24, UCF is 1-4 with the lone win coming by one in overtime against Cincinnati. It is 4-7 since the end of January.

Again, chaos agents.

Meanwhile, UCLA was a team had circled as being a lower seed capable of making a long run. Sadly, those hopes likely went out the window when both Donovan Dent (calf strain) and Tyler Bilodeau (knee strain) suffered injuries in the Big Ten Tournament.

Both are expected to play in the NCAA Tournament, which is obviously a good thing for the Bruins. However, UCLA is facing an uphill battle considering how big of a burden those two carry in its offense. Dent is in charge of creating everything, and Bilodeau is the team's leading scorer. If they are anything less than 100 percent (as appears to be the case), the window is open for UCF to cause more chaos.

(10) Texas A&M over (7) Saint Mary's

Styles make fights, and these two teams couldn't play more opposite styles.

Saint Mary's has consistently been one of the nation's most methodical teams under head coach Randy Bennett, playing at a snail's pace. The Gaels have relied on their skill and half-court execution, believing their excellence in that space can exceed the level of half-court execution of its opponents. Typically a less athletic and less talented team than the better teams on their schedule, the slow tempo eliminates any athleticism disadvantage while limiting possessions. By doing so, each half-court basket has greater impact.

Texas A&M wants to play as up-tempo of a game as possible. Bucky McMillan thrived with his Bucky Ball style at Samford, where constant pressing and pushing tempo were their biggest keys to success. He has brought the same strategy to College Station, where the Aggies have been able to pull off some big wins — and even bigger comebacks — because of the way this style can flip a game on its head.

If this game does become a track meet, Saint Mary's won't be able to keep up. This group has not been able to dictate pace the way past Gaels teams have against greater competition, while the Aggies have shown a willingness to run at all costs. They have the talent advantage as well, making this an easy case.

(11) VCU over (6) North Carolina

This is another instance where injury plays a significant role.

UNC has been without star freshman Caleb Wilson for a month, but news that he broke his right thumb one day before he was slated to return after breaking his left thumb felt like it deflated the Tar Heels.

Carolina is just 5-4 without their star, including just a 2-4 mark against teams that made the NCAA Tournament. UNC's guards have struggled in those games in particular without a superstar like Wilson being able to lead them offensively.

Enter a VCU team that wants to get out in transition and be physical on defense on the perimeter, and you have a bad matchup for the Heels.

The Rams also haven't shied away from elite competition. It played six games against KenPom top-55 opponents in non-conference play. In those games, VCU forced turnovers on over a fifth of all possessions and ranked among the nation's best in opponent three-point percentage. In other words, they found success disrupting those backcourts.

Given UNC's inconsistencies in that area, it's fair to lean towards the Rams.

(11) South Florida over (6) Louisville

This is a matchup where the underlying numbers give South Florida a real upset path.

The Bulls’ biggest edge comes on the offensive glass. South Florida rebounds 38.2% of its misses, while Louisville allows opponents to grab nearly 27% of theirs. That combination can quickly swing possession margins in a one-game setting, especially if South Florida turns second chances into easy points around the rim.

The Bulls also generate free throws at a strong rate, and Louisville’s defense has shown a tendency to foul. Even if the jump shots aren’t falling, that ability to manufacture points at the line gives South Florida a stable offensive floor.

On the other side, Louisville leans heavily on perimeter scoring, with more than half of its attempts coming from three. That approach creates explosive scoring potential but also introduces volatility if the shots stop falling — which we've seen on more than a few occasions.

Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey has built strong teams throughout his career, but much of that success came at the mid-major level. In two seasons at Louisville, he is only 2-12 in Quad 1A games and 12-16 against top 50 opponents.

If South Florida can win the possession battle and pressure Louisville’s shot variance, the Bulls have a legitimate chance to pull the upset.

(11) SMU/Miami OH over (6) Tennessee

Tennessee’s defense travels, but the Vols’ offensive profile can still leave them vulnerable in a single-game setting.

The Vols are excellent on the defensive end and typically control games with physicality, rebounding, and half-court pressure. The concern is on the other side of the floor. Tennessee’s offense can stagnate when the perimeter shots aren’t falling, and the Vols aren’t always elite at generating easy offense at the rim or the free-throw line.

That’s where either potential opponent becomes interesting.

SMU brings one of the more efficient offenses in the field and is comfortable spreading the floor with guard play that can create late in possessions. Teams that can generate their own shots on the perimeter are often the ones capable of breaking down Tennessee’s defensive structure. Boopie Miller is someone that can do that all by himself.

Miami (OH) would present a different challenge. The RedHawks play with pace and rely heavily on perimeter shooting, which introduces variance into the game. In a faster, more possession-heavy environment, Tennessee’s half-court defensive advantage becomes less overwhelming.

If the Vols control tempo and turn the game into a defensive grind, they should advance. But if either opponent pulls them into a more open offensive game, the upset path becomes much clearer.

(12) Akron over (5) Texas Tech

Akron has the kind of offensive profile that can make a 5-seed uncomfortable.

The Zips are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the country, posting a 58.5% effective field goal rate while hitting 38.5% from three. Nearly 38% of their scoring comes from beyond the arc, and they generate those looks through strong guard play and ball movement. Akron’s assist rate sits well above the national average, a sign of how often the offense creates clean perimeter opportunities.

Texas Tech's Christian Anderson is easily the best guard in this game, but Akron's stable of options — from Tavi Jackson to Shammah Scott to Bowen Hardman — could be the different. The Red Raiders aren't used to relying on their perimeter to win games. Akron is.

That style is important against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders’ defense is typically strong, but it’s built more around physical half-court defense than forcing turnovers. Akron protects the ball well and shoots efficiently, which limits the kinds of mistakes Tech normally uses to swing games.

The Red Raiders have adjusted well since losing JT Toppin earlier in the season, but his absence still removes a major interior presence — and has enhanced depth concerns for Texas Tech. Against a guard-driven offense like Akron’s, that’s the type of small edge that can help a mid-major hang around long enough for the shooting to decide it late.

(13) Hawaii over (4) Arkansas

Arkansas enters this matchup riding momentum after winning the SEC Tournament, but Hawaii has the kind of experience and defensive identity that can make this game uncomfortable.

The Rainbow Warriors have been one of the steadier teams in the Big West all season and lean heavily on veteran lineups that are comfortable playing disciplined half-court basketball. That experience matters in the tournament, particularly against a team like Arkansas that relies heavily on guard creation.

The Razorbacks’ offense revolves around dynamic perimeter play. Darius Acuff was dominant during the SEC Tournament, averaging over 30 points and seven assists while driving Arkansas’ title run. Alongside playmakers like Meleek Thomas and Trevon Brazile, Arkansas has multiple players capable of taking over offensively.

But Hawaii’s defensive approach could force Arkansas into a different kind of game. The Rainbow Warriors typically play an aggressive no-help defensive scheme that isolates individual matchups, but a potential shift to zone — something we discussed on Weekend Under Review — could disrupt Arkansas’ rhythm and limit driving lanes for its guards.

If Hawaii can slow the tempo, lean on its experience, and force Arkansas into more perimeter shots than it prefers, the Rainbow Warriors have a realistic path to turning this 4-13 matchup into a tournament surprise.

(13) Troy over (4) Nebraska

Nebraska looks like a tough stylistic matchup on paper, but Troy’s offensive profile introduces the kind of volatility that can swing a single elimination game.

The Trojans run one of the most extreme shot-profile offenses in the country. Nearly everything comes either at the rim or from three, with almost no mid-range in between. That approach normally runs into trouble against Nebraska. The Huskers are one of the best rim-denial defenses in the country, collapsing the paint and forcing opponents to score from the perimeter.

But that dynamic cuts both ways.

If Nebraska successfully takes away the rim, Troy’s offense naturally shifts even further toward three-point attempts and becomes more perimeter oriented. The Trojans won't be at an athleticism disadvantage against the Huskers, meaning they could have success with their drive-and-kick game. This is the kind of game where Victor Valdes does his best work for the Trojans.

There are also signs Troy has the ability to rise to stronger competition. The Trojans went 3–1 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games this season and rank first among NCAA Tournament teams in opponent adjustment at EvanMiya, meaning they tend to play up to the level of their opponent more than anyone else in the field.

Nebraska, meanwhile, is reeling a little bit. The Huskers are just 6-6 over their last 12 games, ranking 112th in adjusted offensive efficiency in that stretch. They have also been a below average rebounding team and are bottom 10 in the country in three-point attempts allowed.

If this turns into a perimeter-oriented game, the Trojans have a real chance to make it uncomfortable for Nebraska.

(13) Hofstra over (4) Alabama

Hofstra enters this matchup with one of the more experienced and productive backcourts in the field, and that guard play gives the Pride a real path to making this game feel tight for Alabama.

The offense runs through Cruz Davis, who averages around 21 points and nearly five assists per game while handling a massive share of Hofstra’s creation. He’s paired with Preston Edmead, who adds roughly 16 points and five assists per night, giving the Pride two guards capable of creating shots and controlling tempo. In a tournament setting, having reliable and explosive ballhandlers who can make decisions late in possessions is often the biggest equalizer for a mid-major.

Hofstra also brings more size than people might expect. Silas Sunday and Victory Onuetu give the Pride legitimate interior length and rim protection, allowing them to defend the paint without constantly sending help. That becomes important against an Alabama team that thrives on driving lanes and rim pressure — and one that struggles protecting the rim

There’s also uncertainty in Alabama’s backcourt. Aden Holloway’s legal situation makes his availability for this game unlikely, which could thin the Tide’s rotation even further.

If Hofstra’s guards can dictate tempo while Sunday and Onuetu own the rim on both ends, the Pride have the personnel to make this a much more difficult matchup than a typical 4–13 game.