To give you some perspective on how things work here at Basket Under Review, we have a wonderful graphics team that typically turns around edit requests in 36-48 hours. So in preparation for this column, on Friday I put in a request for a graphic featuring Jerrod Calhoun and a handful of first-time head coaches.
Then Saturday happened and we had to call an audible.
Sorry Bill Armstrong, you've been replaced by Hubert Davis. And that's not good news for Mr. Davis.
The pendulum swings again for North Carolina
In the preseason, North Carolina was circled as the job to watch this year. The Tar Heels were coming off a season in which they'd stumbled into the NCAA Tournament, won their First Four game and were eliminated before the first weekend. To right the ship, they hired Jim Tanner as their General Manager and spent $14 million dollars on a roster that, outside of five-star frosh Caleb Wilson, mostly made people shrug.
The first two months of the season quieted the doubters. North Carolina started 13-1 with wins over Kansas (with a healthy Darryn Peterson) and Kentucky (in its current form, that just beat Tennessee). They won all the games they were supposed to win and had one dud against a Michigan State team that may just win the Big Ten. Overall, tensions had relaxed and the fan base rallied behind Hubert Davis.
Over the last two weeks, the tenor shifted once again. The Tar Heels have lost three of their last four, all on the road against new conference foes California, SMU and Stanford. Their most recent losses against Cal and Stanford were amplified by rival Duke going 2-0 on that very same west coast swing. In fairness to Hubert Davis, seven of Cal's eight ACC wins since joining the league are at home. Stanford is 11-3 in league home games across the same span. Historically when teams traverse coasts to play games, it doesn't bode well for the group getting on the plane - especially ones making the trek for the first time.
This is North Carolina though, where the ceiling is the roof. So here we are on January 18, in the same place we were in October - writing about Hubert Davis. As a neutral observer, I'm not as trigger happy as the fan base currently is. The defensive numbers are troubling, but UNC is likely due for some positive shooting regression on that end. The season is long and winning games on the road is hard, even for the nation's elite.
Therein lies the problem, unfortunately. North Carolina is not elite right now and hasn't been for three and a half seasons of the five year Davis tenure. Fair or not, elite is the minimum expectation at a blue blood.
So how does this all play out? It will largely come down to March, as it always does. The obvious, clear cut answer is if they somehow don't make the NCAA tournament, UNC will search for a new coach this spring. Currently, North Carolina has a 95% chance to get an at-large bid according to Bart Torvik. They're seeded anywhere between a five and seven seed at Bracket Matrix and would be in position to potentially make the second weekend with a good draw. Is that good enough for another season? That decision will fall at the feet of incoming athletic director Steve Newmark and the Board of Trustees.
For old times' sake, should Davis be let go, let's do a quick game of "Who Do You Call?" The list for North Carolina is pretty good. Call Nate Oats, Tommy Lloyd, TJ Otzelberger, Todd Golden, Grant McCasland and any other wishlist coach you can think of. You're North Carolina, after all! If they all say no, call Mark Byington - he's probably your safest bet for a quality yes. That's a testament to how high the floor is at one of the nation's best jobs.
Utah State is having déjà vu
Tell me if you've heard this one before - Utah State is really good and their coach will be in the mix for several high major openings. The Aggies are no strangers to this situation - they're on their fourth coach in six seasons. Could this time around end any different?
Jerrod Calhoun is 41-10 in a year and a half in Logan. His team is the perfect balance of older players with continuity and a dash of highly productive transfers. As of writing they're 25th on KenPom, which would qualify as the fourth best finish for Utah State in the site's history.
Calhoun's name is already making the rounds among high major athletic directors. He's been linked to potential openings at Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, both of which would have natural appeal. Calhoun is technically a Bearcat alumnus, having spent a year there as a graduate assistant under Bob Huggins. Pittsburgh is just a short one hour drive from East Liverpool, Ohio, where Calhoun grew up. Both jobs are well resourced, with strong basketball histories prior to their current coaches. Calhoun is expected to be a top candidate at both should they open.
Utah State's administration is a savvy group that knows what they're about to deal with. They inked a contract extension with Calhoun after last season that bumped his annual salary to around $1.8M after incentives. His buyout, should he choose to leave, stands just north of $4M. That number isn't high enough to outright deter other schools, but firing coaches isn't cheap and it adds another wrinkle into a prospective school's bottom line.
If Calhoun ends up leaving Logan, the Aggies will have another nice pool of cash to work with and no shortage of quality candidates. Potential names to watch would be Seattle's Chris Victor, Utah Valley's Todd Phillips and UC San Diego's Clint Allard.
Several first-time head coaches are having immediate success
There were 62 total coaching changes last year, with 27 schools hiring first-time head coaches.
While most are going through the struggles of learning on the job, others have excelled in their rookie seasons.
Jai Lucas, Miami
The former Duke assistant is making light work of his first season in the lead chair. The Hurricanes are 15-3, with all three of their losses coming to projected high-seeded tournament teams in BYU, Clemson and Florida.
Lucas' philosophy in roster building was clear - prioritize size. Miami ranks 42nd in average height and doesn't play anyone shorter than 6'3". They play physical and attack the glass, ranking 12th in offensive rebound percentage and 37th in defensive rebound percentage. 56.4% of their points come from two (18th in NCAA) and their average two-point distance is 4.8 feet, good for 28th in the country.
This team isn't lighting it up from outside, but they're dominating the shot volume battle most nights and it's paying off in the win column. With a solid foundation built in year one, Lucas is on the fast track to a very long and successful career.
Ryan Miller, Murray State
Long-time assistant coach and college basketball journeyman Ryan Miller finally got his first head coaching opportunity last spring and he's made the most of his wealth of experience. Miller's Murray State squad currently boasts the 5th longest winning streak in the country at 12 games. They're 16-3 overall and sit atop the Missouri Valley standings at 8-0.
Murray State has two clear objectives, play fast and efficient on offense, and take away the three on defense. Miller essentially took the Creighton model and put it into overdrive. The Racers are currently 23rd in adjusted tempo, 50th in 3PA/FGA on offense and 1st in 3PA/FGA on defense.
The Racers maintain their tempo by subbing frequently and keeping fresh legs on the floor. Layne Taylor leads the team in minutes per game at only 25.7. Miller's current rotation stands at nine or ten players depending on the game and he doesn't appear to have any desire to shorten it as the season rolls on.
Miller's early success will likely draw the eye of several teams with openings this spring. His initial contract pays him $625K and the buyout sits at $1.5M. He's got ties all over the country, so in theory any job could be in play.
Matt Braeuer, Stephen F. Austin
Austin, Texas native Matt Braeuer seemed destined to land his first head coaching gig in his home state. He got his first full-time opportunity at Midland College, then made his way to Sam Houston State in 2013. He linked up with Grant McCasland at North Texas in 2016, followed him to Texas Tech and the rest is history.
The McCasland protégé is rebuilding the defense-first mentality that's led Stephen F. Austin to multiple decades of success in the Southland. The Lumberjacks are 15-3, with sole possession of first place in the conference at 8-1. Similar to Ryan Miller at Murray State, Braeuer's defensive philosophy is built on taking away the three. His team recently held Incarnate Word without a three, which is a bit of a common occurrence in Nacogdoches.
Braeuer's early success is a double-edged sword for Stephen F. Austin. Historically, the program has been able to keep good coaches around for longer than your average mid-major. Brad Underwood went to three straight NCAA tournaments before moving on to Oklahoma State and Kyle Keller managed to stick around after their 28-3 season cut short by the pandemic. In the NIL era where quick flips are king, it wouldn't shock anyone if Braeuer appeared on shortlists for a few opportunities this spring (most notably his alma mater, Wichita State).
Some other coaches having success in their first season: Clint Allard (UC San Diego), Ryan Pannone (Arkansas State), Ali Farokhmanesh (Colorado State), Kevin Hovde (Columbia), Dan Geriot (Iona), Flynn Clayman (High Point), Bill Armstrong (McNeese), Nolan Smith (Tennessee State)
The mid-major coaching carousel is taking shape
At the mid-major level, a handful of jobs are looking primed to open this spring.
Kansas City is already open, as the school announced Marvin Menzies will coach the remainder of the season and not be retained. Several high major and mid-major assistants are expected to get involved. D2 Washburn head coach Brett Ballard was a logical name connected to the job early on, but sources say he's not expected to pursue it.
Air Force recently announced the suspension of head coach Joe Scott for mistreatment of cadet-athletes. No further details were released and the school named assistant coach Jon Jordan as the interim coach. Air Force is widely regarded as one of the toughest jobs in the country because of its limited recruiting pool and the relative level of competition it faces every night in the Mountain West. Finding a replacement will not be easy.
According to a handful of sources, UMBC is a school to watch this spring. The program hasn't been able to capitalize on Ryan Odom's success and continues to fall behind in the America East. Head coach Jim Ferry is in the last year of his original contract and there's been no indication an extension has been signed as of writing. Expect several DMV assistants to be in the mix should the job open.
Wichita State continues to come up in conversations as a potential opening. The Shockers earned a big win this afternoon over South Florida, but it will take a strong finish in the American for Paul Mills to earn another season. Sources say the university will have no issue finding the money to pay a $3.5M buyout if they need to. Wichita State is a storied program that is well resourced, making it one of the best mid-major jobs in the country.
Delaware is another school worth monitoring, as the bottom seems to have fallen out in Newark. The Blue Hens are 5-13 (1-6 CUSA) and continue to regress in year 10 of the Martin Ingelsby era. The move to a new league, coupled with a new athletic director has Ingelsby firmly in the crosshairs this spring.
Georgia State is in year four under Jonas Hayes and they've yet to post a winning season. The school recently built a new arena and increased their financial investment in the program, which was once a perennial NCAA tournament darling under Ron Hunter and Rob Lanier. The buyout is less than $1M should the Panthers move on from Hayes.
Other mid-major jobs we're keeping an eye on: Lehigh, Northern Illinois, Texas State, San Diego, East Carolina, Albany, UTEP
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