Quick Recap
Big ten play has started, and there were some big time matchups for non-conference play as well. The Big Ten has struggled some as of late, losing more non-con games than they have in recent memory. The Big Ten usually has its strength come from only having 1 or 2 teams maximum that seem relatively uncompetitive, but it's trending towards potentially 3-5 this year.
The Big Ten went 3-3 in non-con games against high major competition last week, with the 3 wins being Illinois > Tennessee, Wisconsin > Marquette, and Nebraska > Creighton.
5 Trends and Observations
1.) Big Ten play is here (briefly)
It's that awkward part of the Big Ten calendar where we're still trying to figure out teams, but they get thrown into two Big Ten conference games. During the first two weeks of December, each team will play two conference games, with 11 of the 18 games happening last week. The 4 Pacific coast teams played each other, and UCLA is currently the only team in the Big Ten to sit at 2-0. Northwestern, Oregon, and Rutgers are the three teams sitting at 0-2, while Indiana and Maryland are both 0-1. Illinois, Nebraska, and Penn State all have not played either of their Big Ten games yet.
This portion of the season is weird because teams aren't necessarily who they'll be by the end of the season, but these games still count the same (obviously). A loss in these two games doesn't necessarily mean a team can't win the Big Ten title though. Below are the list of teams who have lost one of the December games but still got at least a share of the Big Ten title since these December games started in the 2017-18 season.
- Purdue - 2023-24
- Wisconsin - 2021-22
- Maryland - 2019-20
- Wisconsin - 2019-20
- Purdue - 2018-19
During those seasons, 12 teams won the Big Ten title (because of ties at the top sharing the title). 5 of those 12 have lost one of the December games.
2.) Purdue is still good, but they have real flaws
Purdue suffered their 3rd largest home loss ever against Iowa State as they lost by 23 points. It was a game where they couldn't get anything going at all, and they had no answers defensively. Braden Smith consistently was able to create good looks to start the game, but Purdue shot just 3/15 on open catch and shoot 3s, and TKR went only 1/8 from 2.
This is still a really good Purdue team, but they're a team that can't afford to have off shooting nights, given that their defense isn't exactly great. The defense can have its moments, but they lack great perimeter defense, so a team like Iowa State can generally get a lot of good looks.
Offensively though, this team simply can't have an off night like it did. I don't suspect they'll have many more of those nights if any, but it shows that this team still has a bit to go. I'm not ready to fully press the panic button on Purdue, but this needs to definitely be a bit of a wake up call.
Iowa State generally put two on the ball defensively against Purdue's pick and rolls. Smith for a large part of the game got Purdue the looks they wanted, but they couldn't convert. A lot of the Smith turnovers happened later when Purdue had to really try and push. If there was consistently a worse process from Purdue offensively, I think I'd be more concerned. For now though, this is a team with a December schedule in which they will have the possibility to bounce back.
3.) UCLA is a zone defensive team?
This is the 7th season that Mick Cronin has been the head coach at UCLA. Up until last week, Cronin had only run zone on 15+ defensive possessions in a game once (February 6th, 2021 in a 66-48 loss against USC) per Synergy Sports.
UCLA did it twice last week, running 34 possessions of zone against Washington and 25 possessions against Oregon. Some of it may largely be aided by the fact that Oregon and Washington have both been not great three point shooting teams, but it's also a testament that UCLA isn't where Cronin wants them to be.
The zone itself starts in a 2-3 type look, but it can morph to man or even a 3-2 zone type look depending on how much time is left in the shot clock. One thing that really stood out is if there was a ball screen set against one of the top defenders, the center in the middle of the 2-3 would move up towards the ball screen, getting close to the level. This is where the 3-2 type look could happen, or if it was later in the shot clock, UCLA would simply convert to a man-to-man look.
It's to be determined whether the zone is something that stays for UCLA or not, but they got two wins out of relying on it heavily. We'll see if they try and bust it out against Gonzaga this Saturday.
4.) Kayden Mingo is lurking in the shadows right now
No one is really giving Penn State any attention right now, and truthfully it's fair. They've only played one high major team all season (Providence), and they lost by 12. This is a super young Penn State squad, and right now they're stacking wins against lower level competition.
As Penn State starts getting into Big Ten play though, it'll be fun to monitor the star point guard for Penn State, Kayden Mingo. He's averaging 15.0 points, 4.2 assists, 4.0 rebounds, 2.1 steals, and only 1 turnover a game. He's the highest ranked recruit in program history, and his ability to be the lead of the offense has translated right away. He also fits the Mike Rhoades mold of a tough two-way player at the point guard position.
Mingo is finding success by getting into the paint and rim. He's only made 6 shots outside of the paint all season, a very fair point of concern going forward.
He also really struggled in the game against Providence as he scored 2 points on 1/8 shooting, although he also had 3 assists.
As Penn State has two big games this week against Indiana and Michigan State, it'll be fun to monitor just how he's able to adjust going forward.
5.) Big Ten tiers
Maybe more so than previous seasons, there seems to be some semi clear tiers forming. Naturally at this point in the season, there are still plenty of questions surrounding most teams, but there seems to be an elite group, a group at the bottom, and maybe two or so groups in between.
Below shows what the current Kenpom and Torvik rankings are for each Big Ten team, and then an average of the two.
When looking at the Big Ten like this, some clearer tiers emerge. There's a top tier that includes Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois.
There's also a clear bottom tier that includes for sure Penn State, Minnesota, Maryland, and Rutgers. Oregon also gets thrown in this one, although they're a bit in between. This is a larger tier at the bottom than normal for the Big Ten. Rutgers also could probably be in their own tier.
Then there are two middle tiers. One includes just Washington and Northwestern who are clearly better than the bottom of the Big Ten, but they also have work to do to try and make the tournament.
The other middle tier is classic Big Ten, featuring 7 teams between 24.5 and 38.5. This is the warzone of the Big Ten, and how teams will be ranked will fluctuate game to game. Based on the metrics, all of these teams are tourney type teams, but none are ready for now to compete at the top of the Big Ten.
At the end of the day, the metrics only tell us so much and watching the teams are important. For me though, how I view the teams largely fall in line with the metrics, with just a couple exceptions.
Team of the Week
Illinois Fighting Illini
In a week that featured only 19 games involving a Big Ten team, Illinois got the biggest win of the week by beating Tennessee in Nashville. We know that this Illinois team is talented, but getting another big time win helps out. They still have a matchup with Missouri waiting, but the win against Tennessee gets Illinois to 2-2 against Texas Tech (W), Tennessee (W), UConn (L), and Alabama (L).
Player of the Week
Hannes Steinbach - Washington
In his two games returning from injury, Steinbach had the following stat lines
- vs UCLA - 32 minutes, 29 points, 10 rebounds (4 offensive), 3 assists, 1 turnover, 1 steal, 11/12 2s, 7/8 FTs
- @ USC - 39 minutes, 24 points, 16 rebounds (7 offensive), 3 assists, 3 turnovers, 1 steal, 5/9 2s, 2/3 3s, 8/10 FTs
He's quickly emerged as one of the elite rebounders in the country, and his touch and skill at his size is pretty rare to come by.
Week Schedule
Note - All times listed are in Eastern Standard Time
Tuesday, December 9th
- Michigan vs Villanova - 6:30 - FS1
- Illinois @ Ohio State - 7:30 - Peacock
- Penn State @ Indiana - 8:30 - FS1
- USC @ San Diego - 9:00 - ESPN2
Wednesday, December 10th
- Minnesota @ Purdue - 7:00 - Big Ten Network
- Wisconsin @ Nebraska - 9:00 - Big Ten Network
Thursday, December 11th
- Iowa @ Iowa State - 8:00 - FS1
Saturday, December 13th
- Michigan State @ Penn State - 12:00 - FOX
- Northwestern vs Jackson State - 2:00 - Big Ten Network
- Purdue vs Marquette - 2:00 - Peacock
- Nebraska @ Illinois - 4:00 - Peacock
- Oregon vs UC Davis - 4:00 - Big Ten Network
- Washington vs Southern Utah - 6:00 - Big Ten Network
- Indiana @ Kentucky - 7:30 - ESPN
- Michigan @ Maryland - 8:00 - FOX
- Rutgers @ Seton Hall - 8:00 - FS1
- Ohio State vs West Virginia (in Cleveland) - 8:00 - ESPNU
- UCLA vs Gonzaga (in Seattle) - 11:30 - ESPN
Sunday, December 14th
- Minnesota vs Texas Southern - 1:00 - Big Ten Network
- Iowa vs Western Michigan - 3:00 - Big Ten Network
- USC vs Washington State - 7:30 - FS1
