Quick Recap
Wisconsin got arguably the biggest win of the young Big Ten season as they knocked off Michigan on the road. More on that below.
Minnesota got a big home win over Iowa, and they almost went 2-0 this week, but USC was able to get a road win at Minnesota in overtime. This Gophers squad can be feisty, and they seem like they won't just roll over this season.
After losing to Michigan and MSU last week, USC got the win, as mentioned above, to help get them back on track. They now have 3 home games in a row to try and get things right.
UCLA once again had a slow start, and once again, they almost were able to come back. They followed it up with a win against Maryland where they pushed the lead out later in the game.
Purdue got 2 wins, starting 5-0 in the Big Ten, but both weren't nearly as dominant as they could've been. It's a testament to where the program is at that we can nitpick a 5-0 Big Ten start, but that's where we find ourselves right now.
Nebraska stayed undefeated, beating Indiana behind a very big run late in the game. Nebrasketball.
This Saturday I am officially dubbing Big Ten Basketball day. There are 8 conference games spaced throughout the entire day. 16 of the 18 Big Ten teams will be in action, and I hope it'll be a glorious time.
5 Trends and Observations
1.) Wisconsin upsets Michigan (and maybe will have a resurgence?)
Heading into the week, Wisconsin sat at 9-5 on the season, with a 1-2 Big Ten record. Their best win was a home win against Northwestern, and their only other win against a top 100 Kenpom team was a neutral win against Providence. They were 2-5 against teams in the Kenpom top 100, and all the losses were by double digits. For a team with as much talent as they have, things were starting to look just a bit bleak, although it was very early in the Big Ten season.
Insert an 80-72 home win over UCLA and then the biggest win in the Big Ten so far, a 91-88 road win over Michigan. Now Wisconsin sits at 11-5 overall, 3-2 in the Big Ten, 38th in Kenpom, and have arguably the best win in the country. College basketball is the best.
Looking specifically at the Michigan game, Wisconsin executed what I do think is the best game plan to give Michigan trouble.
1.) Knock down jumpers. Open ones, contested ones, it doesn't matter. Jumpers have to fall. Wisconsin went 15/33 from 3 in this game, including starting 8/8 from 3 in the 2nd half, with 7 of those being Aleksas Bieliauskas and Nolan Winter.
2.) Not get obliterated in the paint. Michigan usually bludgeons teams to death with their ability to dominate the paint on both ends. I don't think teams have to outscore Michigan in the paint, but they can't let it be like a -26 point differential. Michigan was +12 in the paint in this one. Wisconsin held Michigan to 4 points under their average in the paint, and the Badgers scored 6 more points than the Wolverines allow per game in the paint.
The scary thing with Michigan is that most teams will most likely need to turn it into a shootout to win, and Michigan's comfortable with that. However, Wisconsin did a good job of putting Michigan in uncomfortable spots defensively, something that hasn't happened really all season.
Wisconsin 45 cut - Michigan slow switching
Within Wisconsin's flow offensively, they often have a guard 45 cut through the paint as the ball is getting reversed. Michigan tried countering this by peel switching so that the low defender takes the cutter, and the player defending the cut peels out to the corner. In the clip above though, Wisconsin stationed Blackwell deep in the corner so it was a longer closeout for Lendeborg, resulting in an open three.
Wisconsin pick and pop 3
The other thing that stood out, and I'm sure people will harp on, is that Wisconsin got so many looks out of their pick and pop bigs. With Mara in drop coverage, Boyd snaked the ball screen to engage Mara, opening up Bieliauskas for the three.
Wisconsin got a lot of good looks out of this simple action, and credit to Bieliauskas and Winter for making Michigan pay time and time again. Makes you wonder why doesn't every team that play Michigan just have two stretch bigs who go a combined 8/12 from three, with 7 straight makes between the two to start the second half?
Hopefully Wisconsin can turn this into a springboard for their season and become as good as many (myself included) thought they could be. Their upcoming schedule has some potential wins, which includes
- @ Minnesota
- Rutgers
- @ Penn State
- USC
- Minnesota
- Ohio State
2.) Illinois is maybe a bit of a sleeping giant
Illinois dominated Rutgers at home and then went on the road to get a win against Iowa in a game they controlled for the large majority, although the Hawkeyes made it close towards the end.
Illinois is currently 7th in Kenpom and Torvik at the time of this writing. They have the #3 offense in the country and a top 20 defense. Since December 1st, Torvik has Illinois as the 3rd best team in the country and the best offense. Over the last 4 weeks, Torvik has Illinois as the best team in the country. The Illini are 13-3 overall and 4-1 in Big Ten play, which has included 3 road wins. Their only losses are to Alabama, UConn, and Nebraska.
All of this is to say that Illinois looks good, but I'm not sure if they're getting 100% recognized as a team who has been as good as they have been. The offense has been clicking on all cylinders with all 5 starters averaging double figure points on the season. Keaton Wagler has been a star, but this is also a deep Illinois team that has a ton of options and guys who can go off in any given game.
Illinois has been a heavy pick and roll usage offense. It's worked though as they have the 15th most efficient pick and roll offense in the country. Out of the 14 teams ahead of them, only Vanderbilt runs more pick and rolls per game. The Illini are elite at finding their matchups and utilizing different spacing to their advantage. When 7'2 Zvonimir Ivisic is in the game, he's often spaced in the corner with a guard like Kylan Boswell in the dunker spot.
On top of the offense, the defense has become better throughout the season. They still are in their heavy drop system, but they also seem to be in gap help more than last year, resulting in fewer shots in the paint. Teams are taking just 40.8% of their shots in the paint this season, down from 44.7% last year.
3.) Oscar Cluff is the most efficient player in the country
There's actual data to back this up.
Per Kenpom, Oscar Cluff has the best offensive rating in the country (#2 is also former Boilermaker, Camden Heide). This doesn't mean BEST offensive player, as that has to take into account things like usage and creation, but in the looks Cluff gets, he's been nearly automatic.
On the season, Oscar Cluff is shooting 74.5% from 2 on 6.6 attempts per game. That's the 13th best 2P% in the country.
Looking at his shot chart, Cluff has been nearly automatic from inside the paint. He's only taken 2 shots outside of the paint all season, but he knows what his role is, and he's been excelling in it. There were some concerns from some early in the season that the spacing with him and TKR would be poor, but that hasn't really been the case at all. This, to me, is due to 1) Cluff being hyper efficient and 2) Cluff and TKR largely not operating in the same areas. Cluff works mainly around the rim, and he has only attempted 1 shot outside of 10 feet all season long. On the other hand, TKR is elite from the 10-15 foot range, in addition to being able to quickly work in the post.
They work in tandem now. When TKR gets the ball in the post, teams have a very interesting choice to make. Do they double with their big and trust their guards to be able to dig down and cover Cluff? This can work if you can force TKR into bad decisions, but Penn State tried this some and TKR responded by having a great facilitating game. You could double from the perimeter, but that's an automatic kickout for one of the better shooting teams in the country. That leaves staying 1 on 1 then, which can work, but if Cluff's man commits to TKR at all, Cluff is waiting for the drop off.
Cluff is currently averaging 11.9 points and 8.6 rebounds a game. He's currently in the 97th percentile of efficiency when working from the post. He's also in the 100th percentile of efficiency when being a roller, currently at 14/15 on the season.
4.) The Big Ten Three Point Shooting Dilemma
The Big Ten as a whole this season is taking 41.8% of their shots from three. That's the 4th highest rate out of all the conferences in D1, and it's the highest three point attempt rate in Big Ten's history. Last year the Big Ten was 21st out of conferences in three point attempt rate, and the year before that, they were 28th.
The only issue is that as a conference, the Big Ten is shooting just 32.8% from three. That is the 26th best conference rate out of 31 conferences, and it's the worst rate for the Big Ten since 2020. It's also the third worst percentage in the Kenpom database (1997).
Relatively, the efficiency of the offenses has stayed about the same as last year. The Big Ten is 8th in efficiency, and they were 7th last year. So the decrease in three point percentage has been cancelled out some by the three point attempt rate, although the offensive rebounding rate being the best since 2013 also helps this out a lot I'd bet.
5.) Big Ten Tiers Update
I know that this is something I've been harping on over the last few weeks, but now that we're (somehow) already 25% of the way through the Big Ten season, there has been some interesting updates to how the Big Ten is unfolding. Take a look at the projected conference records per Kenpom.
Above is the current Big Ten standings this season. Looking at the projected record column, I can't remember this big of a gap between the top tier and the middle tier. I mentioned it last week, but the number of Big Ten teams that make the tournament is so up in the air. It could be as few as probably 7 teams, and if things break right, it could probably get up to 11. The only issue is that outside of the top 5 teams, there isn't one specific team to have a ton of confidence in.
That's what this tier kind of shows. There is a very clear top 5, all projected to finish between 14-6 and 16-4. There currently is not a single team projected to finish with 13 or 12 wins. 2019 is the last year that was sort of similar to this, where the 5th best team finished 13-7 in the Big Ten and the next best was Iowa at 10-10. That year, 8 teams out of 14 in the Big Ten made the tournament.
In addition to their being a pretty clear middle tier, there's also a pretty clear bottom tier. 5 teams right now are projected to win between 4 and 6 wins in the Big Ten, and only Minnesota right now is projected to win 7 or 8 games.
Team of the Week
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin got the biggest win of this Big Ten season with a road win over Michigan. Before that though, they got a home win over UCLA.
Player of the Week
Nick Boyd - Wisconsin
vs UCLA
- 20 points, 5 assists, 2 turnovers, 8 rebounds, 1 steal
- 4/9 2s (44.4%), 2/4 3s (50%), 6/10 FTs (60%)
@ Michigan
- 22 points, 6 assists, 0 turnovers, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block
- 7/14 2s (50%), 1/2 3s (50%), 5/5 FTs (100%)
Week Schedule
Note - All times listed are in Eastern Standard Time
Game of the Week
Iowa @ Indiana - Saturday 1/17 - 2:00 - FOX
Tuesday, January 13th
- Wisconsin @ Minnesota - 7:00 - Big Ten Network
- Indiana @ Michigan State - 8:00 - Peacock
- Oregon @ Nebraska - 9:00 - Big Ten Network
- Maryland @ USC - 10:30 - FS1
Wednesday, January 14th
- Iowa @ Purdue - 6:30 - Big Ten Network
- Illinois @ Northwestern - 8:30 Big Ten Network
- UCLA @ Penn State - 8:30 - FS1
- Michigan @ Washington - 10:30 - Big Ten Network
Saturday, January 17th
- Minnesota @ Illinois - 12:00 - Big Ten Network
- UCLA @ Ohio State - 1:00 - CBS
- Iowa @ Indiana - 2:00 - FOX
- Rutgers @ Wisconsin - 2:00 - Big Ten Network
- Nebraska @ Northwestern - 4:00 - Big Ten Network
- Michigan @ Oregon - 4:00 - NBC
- Purdue @ USC - 6:00 - Peacock
- Michigan State @ Washington - 6:00/10:30 - Big Ten Network
Sunday, January 18th
- Penn State @ Maryland - 12:00 - Big Ten Network
