The regular season is in the rear-view mirror, and all Big East eyes now head to Madison Square Garden for the conference tournament...
The Big East regular season has come to a close, and it ended with fireworks. UConn, the league's top-ranked team by analytic measures, fell on the road to Marquette in its finale in a close finish that saw head coach Dan Hurley ejected in the final seconds. With the Huskies' loss, St. John's earned the outright regular-season league title and No. 1 seed at the Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden this week. The Red Storm finished 18-2 in league play, one game clear of UConn (17-3) and three clear of Villanova (15-5):
Seton Hall settled in as the No. 4 seed as had been expected, while Creighton won out for the final first-round bye thanks to Butler beating DePaul on the road. The Blue Demons settle for the No. 6 seed. The three-way tie at 7-13 was settled by round-robin results; Marquette earns the No. 7 seed for a 3-1 record against Butler and Providence, followed by Butler at 2-2 and Providence at 1-3. Xavier's regular-season sweep of Georgetown won the tiebreaker for the No. 10 and 11 seeds.
The bracket is set, and Big East Tournament play begins on March 11th at 4:00pm ET when No. 8 Butler takes on No. 9 Providence. The two squads split in the regular season, each winning on their home floor in double-OT. If the first two matchups are any indication, the Big East Tournament could start with a bang before Marquette/Xavier and DePaul/Georgetown follow:
Before the games officially tip off, though, let's run through how each has played of late and it's hopes to cut down the nets.
Tier I: The Heavy Favorites
Even going back to the preseason, it has always felt like St. John's and UConn would be on a collision course to meet in the Big East Tournament final. The Red Storm (7) and Huskies (4) received every first-place vote in the preseason poll, and their play during the regular season backed it up. While much of the league has struggled, St. John's and UConn have been steady forces at the top. Both are heading to the NCAA Tournament next week as single-digit seeds, with UConn's impressive nonconference likely leading to a No. 1-2 seed and St. John's settling in the No. 5-6 seed range.
The two elites have battled twice thus far, splitting those matchups. As mentioned in the introduction, though, it was St. John's that won the regular-season Big East title due to UConn taking one more loss against the bottom nine. As a result, UConn has the likely tougher path to the final on March 14. The Huskies will be tasked with facing the league's only other likely NCAA Tournament representative, Villanova, in its second game if they both make it that far.
As far as how each team is performing heading into the Big East Tournament, St. John's is the only one coming off of a win. The Red Storm won each of their last three regular-season games over Villanova, Georgetown, and Seton Hall. However, the game preceding that was a 32-point loss to UConn. The Huskies, meanwhile, only squeaked out a win over Seton Hall after the SJU domination before losing at Marquette. When UConn has needed to rise to the occasion this season, though, it largely has, and should perform well at the BET.
While cutting down the nets in MSG would be great for either squad, the preseason goal for both teams was to play into April.
Tier II: Hey! We're dancing too!
The Big East only features one other likely NCAA Tournament team behind St. John's and UConn this season, and it is Villanova. The Wildcats are simply in a tier of their own as the league's third-best team; they went 0-4 against UConn and St. John's during the regular season, but 15-1 against the rest of the league. They have not lost to a team in the bottom eight since Jan. 7 — 12 straight wins against such foes, including winning at DePaul and vs. Xavier in their last two games.
The performances against the Blue Demons and Musketeers were especially important given they were Villanova's first two games since freshman forward Matt Hodge was ruled out for the rest of the season. Hodge's injury came at an unfortunate time for a team with a thin rotation, but the Wildcats' 19- and 13-point margins without him evoke confidence in persevering into the Big East Tournament and beyond. Malachi Palmer started in his place for both games, and recorded 17 points and eight rebounds across his 63 minutes.
Villanova loses some size in its lineup dropping from the 6-8 Hodge to 6-6 Palmer, which could have led to some rebounding concerns. The offensive rebounding is a touch down over the two games without him, but the Wildcats have posted back-to-back defensive rebounding rates over 79% — their best two-game DR% stretch of the season.
The concern about Villanova's ceiling in the Big East Tournament persists for the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats likely cannot win the BET without beating UConn or St. John's for the first time; a run in the Big Dance will be difficult without improving on a 1-6 record against the KenPom top 50.
Tier III: We have a bye...
Even with a four-game losing streak mixed in in late-January, Seton Hall has been fairly consistently the league's fourth-best team this season. The Pirates likely needed to be better than 10-10 in league play to be an NCAA Tournament team, but their record still clears the bottom seven to earn a first-round bye. They are also a solid 6-5 since that aforementioned losing streak.
The question for Seton Hall is whether it can finally knock off one of the teams ahead of it. The Pirates are 0-6 against UConn, St. John's, and Villanova, but have had a number of close calls. Most recently, they lost by only four at UConn on Feb. 28 and by only seven vs. St. John's in their regular-season finale. The average margin of defeat in their six losses to the top teams is just 6.8 points.
Seton Hall's path starts against Creighton, who it played about as tightly as possible in the regular season; the Pirates won at home by two (58-56) but lost on the road by one (69-68). If they can advance to the semifinals, they would more than likely get their second shot at St. John's in three games.
...and we beat UConn on the road!
Creighton, meanwhile, comes into the Big East Tournament after a full week off following its 17-point road win at Butler. While the second-half performance in Hinkle Fieldhouse was spectacular, the Bluejays hadn't been that much better than their bottom-seven peers down the stretch prior. Creighton is still only 3-8 over its last 11 games, but that was enough to earn the No. 5 seed at the Big East Tournament and, thus, a first-round bye before facing Seton Hall on Thursday.
In addition to the bye meaning they are already only one win away from the semifinals, the Bluejays have proven more capable of beating the league's best than the rest. While it was swept by St. John's, Creighton has not only beaten both Villanova and UConn – but beat them both on the road. Perhaps it is unlikely that the Bluejays beat those teams again, but doing it once is more than the teams behind them can say.
Creighton ranks 24th nationally in 3-point attempt rate, 14th in 3-point attempt rate defense, and 4th in free-throw rate allowed. If the Bluejays get hot from deep and make you make tough shots in the paint, they can pull out an upset; they were 10-of-21 from deep in their road win at UConn.
Tier IV: DePaul, Marquette, Butler, Providence
DePaul finished alone in sixth place of the Big East standings, but went just 2-4 against the other three teams in this tier. The Blue Demons swept Marquette, but were swept by both Butler and Providence. They did sweep Creighton, but the first-round bye is a major differentiator between the tiers at this point. Winning four games in four days, with likely two of them needing to come over UConn and St. John's, is a tall ask.
But for preview sake, here is a look at how the entire league is trending over the full season, since February, and over the last three weeks:
Buoyed by having beaten UConn at home in its regular-season finale, Marquette is the closest to the elites over the last three weeks, even ahead of Villanova, and the closest to the three NCAA Tournament teams since Feb. 1. A major factor has been an elite defense, allowing just a .451 eFG% since Feb. 1 while forcing turnovers on over a fifth of possessions; they have been vulnerable on the defensive glass over this stretch but are suffocating finishing inside.
Butler has had some poor performances down the stretch, including the aforementioned 17-point home loss to Creighton, but it has won three of its last five. The Bulldogs have the potential for strong offensive outings when they are hitting from deep, but that hasn't been the case lately. They are also 0-6 against the three NCAA Tournament teams, losing by an average of 15.3 points. The 3s need to start falling at a higher clip to make a run.
Providence lost its last two games coming into the Big East Tournament but has won five of its last nine. The defense is a massive question mark but the Friars rank 37th nationally in adjusted offense; that kind of firepower is dangerous. With the way the bracket shakes out, PC's path to the final goes through Butler, St. John's, and either Seton Hall or Creighton. It is 4-4 against those teams this year.
DePaul has been the lowest-rated of this group but it has the best record and thus the easiest path to the semis. The Blue Demons open against Georgetown, who it swept in the regular season, then would face Villanova in the quarterfinals. Like Butler, DePaul is 0-6 agains the top three and has lost by an average of 13.2 points, but its path avoids the nationally-ranked Red Storm and Huskies until the semifinals if it can make it that far.
Tier V: It hasn't happened...yet?
The worst seed to ever win the Big East Tournament since realignment (2014-present) was No. 8-seeded Georgetown in 2021. The No. 8 seed is also the worst seed to ever make the semifinals over this span. As such, the road feels unlikely for No. 10 seed Xavier and No. 11 seed Georgetown coming into this week. Just because it hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean it can't happen, though? You can make an argument that this year's path, even for a No. 10 or 11 seed, is easier than Georgetown's as the No. 8 in 2021.
That said, Xavier and Georgetown were both swept in the regular season by each of the No. 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds in this year's Big East Tournament. Xavier was also swept by the No. 5 seed. As far as trending goes, the Musketeers and Hoyas have the two lowest adjusted efficiency ratings in the league over the last three weeks.
For key metrics to watch, Xavier is 7-1 when holding opponents under a 24% offensive rebounding rate (7-16 otherwise, including 0-8 when allowing an OR% of 32% or higher). Georgetown is 12-4 when limiting its turnover rate to 16.5% or lower (2-13 otherwise).
