The last week of fully nonconference play for the Big East is now complete. While most of the league still faces only out-of-conference foes this coming week, the same cannot be said about Butler and Providence. The Bulldogs still have two nonconference games left on their schedule, but not before they welcome the Friars to Hinkle Fieldhouse for the beginning of the conference season.
But before diving into that matchup, in particular, this edition of the Big East Round-Up has some recent positive trends from around the league to discuss. Let's get into it.
Providence is finally finding its range.
I wrote a few weeks back about how Providence's shooters were falling short of their career-long marks, and that a boon must be on the horizon. At the time, the Friars were shooting just 30.6% from beyond the arc, well below the expected 34.7%. Providence experienced a moderate uptick during the Rady Children's Invitational, shooting 17-for-44 (38.6%) over losses to Wisconsin and Florida, but found its groove upon returning home.
Recovering from their 4-4 start with their best week of the season, Providence splashed an absurd 29-of-56 (51.8%) of 3s during its wins over Fairleigh Dickinson and Rhode Island. Most importantly, UCF transfer Jaylin Sellers has found his range. A career 37.3% shooter coming into this season, Sellers made just 27.5% of 3s through Providence's first seven games; he is 10-of-12 over the last three.
Providence still has work to do on defense, but its offense is reaching elite levels now that the 3s are falling. The Friars are up to 40th nationally in adjusted efficiency, even with the slow start from three. They are 23rd in offense over their last three games (loss to Florida, wins over FDU and URI), per Bart Torvik.
The downside is that the slow start coincided with going 0-4 against their KenPom top-75 nonconference opponents. Their best victories – over Penn State and Rhode Island – are solid but not likely to be building blocks for a resume. With hosting Brown as its lone remaining nonconference game, Providence will have to make its postseason case during league play of a down year for the Big East.
Villanova's Brennan continues to own the glass.
Villanova has not earned a KenPom top-100 victory yet, but has been one of the Big East's top performers. Ever since playing nationally ranked BYU tight on the season's opening night, the Wildcats have steadily improved their adjusted efficiency game by game. Bryce Lindsay and Acaden Lewis have perhaps earned the most headlines, but the only game this season after which Villanova dropped more than one spot on KenPom was the only time it played without Duke Brennan.
Brennan is a solid interior scorer, posting 11.4 points per game on 60.3% shooting, but his work on the glass is where he turns heads. Not only is he averaging 12.9 rebounds per contest, but his rate numbers are off the charts: Brennan is in the top three in the entire country in individual offensive (27.8%) and defensive (30.9%) rebounding rates, including leading the nation in the former. He is a possession-controller, securing extra chances on one end and halting them on the other.
From an on-off standpoint, you'd be hard-pressed to find many with as significant an impact on their team's success as Brennan:
Villanova makes a lower percentage of shots with Brennan on the floor, but he makes up for that with his astounding rate of second-chance points; the Wildcats lead the country in putback rate with Brennan on the floor (12.5% of shot attempts are putbacks). Defensively, opponents score 24.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 adjusted possessions on the floor, mainly because they attempt 7.1% fewer shots at the rim and convert at a 17.6% lower rate.
Xavier is starting to control the paint.
A win over Cincinnati was Xavier's only result of the past week, but it was a big one for rivalry's sake and for the continuation of an ongoing four-game win streak. Ever since falling to No. 111 on KenPom following a 2-2 start (and 19-point losses to Santa Clara and Iowa), Xavier has been piling up strong performances. The Musketeers are 5-1 over their last six games en route to leaping to No. 84 in adjusted efficiency margin for the campaign.
Put simply, the Musketeers were one of the worst teams at controlling the paint in the country through their first six games. They ranked equivalent to the 15th and 11th percentiles in rim rate and rim FG%, respectively, on the offensive end, while rating dead-last in the country in field-goal percentage allowed at the rim (82.4%) defensively:
Over the ongoing four-game wins streak, though, they have dramatically improved in both areas. Xavier still isn't attempting a ton of shots at the rim (equivalent to 28th percentile in rim rate over this stretch) but is converting at a much-higher rate (73rd percentile).
The more notable jump is on the defensive end, as they have rated equivalent to the 68th percentile in field goal percentage allowed at the rim lately. Xavier has held its last four opponents to 22.4% worse shooting at the rim than its first six opponents.
UConn's nonconference gauntlet rolls on.
UConn's nonconference schedule is something to behold. Although it only ranks 99th in difficulty, per KenPom, that is due to having hosted four sub-290 opponents. Head coach Dan Hurley has otherwise not shied away from challenges aside from those games, already facing BYU, Arizona, Illinois, and Kansas through the first month of the season. The gauntlet isn't over, either, as the looming week presents two more opportunities.
The Huskies will first face Florida in a battle of two programs which account for the last three national titles — and nine of the last 26 titles. If there is a December version of the Champions Classic, this is it. UConn then returns home to face Texas. Sure, maybe Texas isn't a powerhouse this season, but the matchup signifies the end of a nonconference schedule featuring six games vs. high-major foes, five of which rank in the KenPom top 20.
The Huskies are 7-1 despite the difficult scheduling and health issues. Their lone loss, by four points to now-No. 1 Arizona, came without both big man Tarris Reed and five-star freshman Braylon Mullins. We already know what Reed is when healthy, but Mullins showed who he can be in UConn's most recent elite win: 17 points in 23 minutes in a road win over Kansas.
The full-strength Huskies have the potential to be the best team in the country and to contend for a third title in four years.
Providence/Butler set to tip off Big East play.
While most of the Big East will not start league play until next week, Providence and Butler will jumpstart the conference season on Dec. 13 in Hinkle Fieldhouse. While Butler has (surprisingly) performed better than Providence so far this season, it is coming off its worst performance of the year. The Bulldogs' nine-point home loss to Boise State caused a 22-spot drop in the NET. Providence, meanwhile, is coming off arguably its best performance in a 19-point win over Rhode Island.
From a stylistic view, this will not look like your usual Providence/Butler game. After nine straight seasons ranking sub-150 in average offensive possession length, Providence ranks 20th through 10 games this season. The uptick is similar for Butler, who ranks 25th after never previously ranking top 100 in KenPom history:
A key injury status to monitor before the game is that of Butler's Jalen Jackson. The Bulldogs' point guard has missed the last three games, causing a noticeable drop-off in a few areas. Most notably, Jackson is the tone-setter of Butler's more up-tempo attack; lineups with Jackson are averaging a 76.3 possessions-per-game pace compared to a 70.6 per-game pace in lineups without him. For the season, Butler is 5.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
An area to watch for Providence will be its perimeter. As previously mentioned, the Friars have found their range from deep offensively. However, they still rank 266th in 3-point attempt rate allowed and 326th in 3-point efficiency allowed. Butler doesn't attempt many 3s, but rank 21st in 3P% thanks to a primary trio of Finley Bizjack, Evan Haywood, and Jamie Kaiser shooting 54-for-122 (44.3%).
Yet-to-be-mentioned games to watch:
- Dec. 9: Villanova at Michigan
- Dec. 13: Villanova vs. Pittsburgh
- Dec. 13: Seton Hall vs. Rutgers
- Dec. 13: Creighton vs. Kansas State
- Dec. 13: DePaul at Wichita State
- Dec. 13: Marquette at Purdue
