While Big East league games started before the holiday season, the nonconference schedule was still largely in swing. That is no longer the case. With Butler traveling to Creighton and Marquette hosting Seton Hall, the Big East resumes conference play on Dec. 30th. Before those games tip-off the remainder of the league schedule, though, there are plenty of topics to discuss from the end of nonconference heading into the Big East slate.

Villanova, for instance, closed its nonconference schedule with a win of value before following it up by beating Seton Hall on the road. Creighton, meanwhile, has used a change to its starting lineup to propel a three-game win streak.

Let’s unwrap it all in this edition of the Big East Round-Up.

Villanova stock is quickly on the rise

The last edition of the Big East Round-Up looked into Villanova’s lack of quality wins despite an 8-2 start. At that time, the Wildcats had not suffered anything close to a bad loss (only losses coming to BYU and Michigan away from home) but all eight of their wins were in Quadrant 4. In just the two games since then, though, Villanova has quickly started to fix those holes in its resume while bursting into contention for a top-25 ranking. 

The Wildcats first nearly coughed away a “neutral-site” game against Wisconsin in Milwaukee that they never trailed in and led for 37:55 of regulation before needing overtime to close the deal by 10 points, then went on the road to beat Seton Hall by eight points. The performances boosted Villanova to No. 25 on KenPom and No. 21 in the NET. Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast shows the Wildcats at a 93.2% chance of making the NCAA Tournament nearing the New Year.

Bryce Lindsay is Villanova’s top scorer and Duke Brennan might be the nation’s best rebounder, but the team keeps improving as freshmen Acaden Lewis and Matt Hodge have taken steps. Lewis led Villanova with 16 points and a season-high three steals against Seton Hall, upping his streak to 11 straight games with a steal. Hodge scored 27 points total across the wins over Wisconsin and Seton Hall, plus added 12 rebounds and five blocks; he had only blocked three shots over the first 10 games combined.

Villanova’s offense has performed at the equivalent of the best in the country when Lewis and Hodge have shared the floor this season, per Hoop Explorer. The defense isn’t as strong but the scoring firepower outweighs to the extent of Villanova playing at the overall level of the 15th-best team when they are together. Both players make the other better.

How Creighton's new starting lineup has fared

Creighton switched up its starting lineup in a big way before it faced Kansas State back on Dec. 13, inserting Ty Davis, Austin Swartz, and Isaac Traudt in place of Nik Graves, Blake Harper, and Owen Freeman. While the Bluejays lost to the Wildcats after the change, the new starting lineup performed well enough to maintain that status; that five outscored Kansas State, 28-23, in its 20 possessions, while all other lineups lost the other 46 possessions by 12. 

Zooming forward, Creighton has now won three straight games behind that starting lineup in convincing fashion. The Bluejays beat Xavier on the road by 31 before returning home for a 21-point win over Marquette and a 23-point win over Utah Tech. Creighton has increased its adjusted efficiency margin by +4.99 since the start of the streak on Dec. 17th, the most in the country by a wide margin (second-largest jump since 12/17 is +3.93 from Pittsburgh).

Diving into the new starting lineup, in particular, that five-man unit is posting an adjusted net rating of +36.4 over its four games starting together, equivalent to playing at the level of the seventh-best team in the country (per Hoop Explorer):

Josh Dix has remained a consistent presence as the only Bluejay to start all 13 games, while Swartz and Traudt have thrived in their new roles. They have combined to average 30.0 points per game on 28-for-65 (43.1%) from three since joining the starting lineup.

Assessing resumes after nonconference

As the Big East fully enters conference play, it is time to assess where the league stands in bracketology. While it is too early to determine which teams will make the field, let alone their seeding, the first two months can all-but-eliminate teams from at-large contention. With Providence, Xavier, Georgetown, DePaul, and Marquette all slotted at 100th or worse in the NET, it feels like it would take a miraculous turnaround for any of them to dance. 

The other six teams all appear to at least be in the mix heading into 2026. UConn, St. John’s, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Butler all have dance odds of over 50%, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast, while Creighton makes the field in a third of simulations:

As it stands, the Big East looks most poised to land four or five bids. How the early bubble teams like the Bulldogs and Bluejays handle the many minefields of five teams ranked 100th or worse in the NET will determine the league’s depth of representation at the Big Dance.

A critical looming stretch for Butler

Butler currently sits at a 59.5% chance to reach the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast, as the calendar is set to flip to 2026. While it feels too early for a make-or-break stretch of season for any team, the next five games for the Bulldogs will tell a lot about whether or not they will be dancing in March:

  • Dec. 30th: at Creighton (Currently in Quadrant 1)
  • Jan. 3rd: vs. Villanova (Currently in Quadrant 1)
  • Jan. 6th: vs. St. John’s (Currently in Quadrant 1)
  • Jan. 14th: at Xavier (Currently in Quadrant 2)
  • Jan. 17th: at Seton Hall (Currently in Quadrant 1) 

All five of Butler’s next games are currently slotted in the upper two quadrants, with four projected in Quadrant 1. It is not just about the big games on the schedule, though, but also about the big games not on the schedule afterward. Of Butler’s 13 remaining regular-season games after this stretch, only three are in Quadrant 1; additionally, the matchups with Villanova and St. John’s during this stretch are two of their only three home Q1 chances all season (vs. UConn on Feb. 11 being the other). Additionally, only four more of their remaining games after this stretch are in Quadrant 2, two of which are on the road.

If the Bulldogs do not take advantage of at least a couple of these next five games, they could be walking through a minefield of six Quadrant 3 or 4 games down the stretch hoping to cling on the bubble. Again, there is a lot of season left before calling any five-game stretch a make-or-break, but a hot or cold stretch over Butler’s upcoming schedule could drastically change that 59.5% in either direction.

Providence set to return from 15-day break

As already discussed, the Big East is not exactly full of NCAA Tournament teams this season. Yet, Providence begins its league schedule facing four of the six main bid contenders, and already lost to the first two. The games were close, though, having fallen by three in double-OT at Butler and by five at home to Seton Hall. Now, the Friars return from an lengthy, 15-day break to face the league’s two preseason favorites in St. John’s (away on Jan. 3) and UConn (home on Jan. 7).

For Providence to rebound from its 7-6 (0-2 BE) start and build some momentum, a look back at the main culprits of their six losses is a place to start. The woes mainly start defensively, but especially with regard to defending the paint; the differential in 3P% allowed in wins (38.1%) versus losses (36.6%) is pretty negligible when compared to the differences inside the arc.

From a simple percentage standpoint, the Friars are allowing 39.5% shooting on 2s in their wins but 54.4% in their losses. Narrowing that to shot selection as well, Providence allows just 33.7% of their opponents’ points to come in the paint in wins as opposed to 44.9% in their losses. Additionally, the struggles in the paint extend to the glass, where opponents secure 33.9% of misses when beating Providence compared to 29.8% when losing.

St. John’s (111th in 2P%, 26th in OR%) and UConn (41st in 2P%, 94th in OR%) aren’t ideal opponents to face when hoping to fix those woes, but it is what the schedule presents.

Games to watch in the coming week

  • Jan. 3: Villanova at Butler (Thrill Score: 76.0)
    • 12:00pm ET on TNT
  • Jan. 4: Creighton at Seton Hall (Thrill Score: 67.5)
    • 12:00pm ET on Peacock
  • Dec. 30: Butler at Creighton (Thrill Score: 66.5)
    • 9:00pm ET on Fox Sports 1
  • Dec. 30: Seton Hall at Marquette (Thrill Score: 56.3)
    • 7:00pm ET on Fox Sports 1
  • Dec. 31: St. John’s at Georgetown (Thrill Score: 56.1)
    • 8:00pm ET on Fox Sports 1