The midway point of the Big East season is quickly approaching, and the top of the league continues to win — but not easily. UConn only beat Georgetown by two before needing overtime to defeat Villanova and maintain its undefeated league record. Meanwhile, St. John's needed double-digit comebacks over Seton Hall and Xavier to stay just one game behind; the Red Storm are one of 12 teams to win two games when trailing by 15+.

Further down the standings, bubble teams Seton Hall and Butler posted opposite weeks: the Pirates went 0-2 on the road, while the Bulldogs went 2-0 at home. Both find themselves right around the cutline, but perhaps on the wrong side entering the last week of January. The Big East could be looking at just three bids if neither dance.

Without any further ado, let's jump right into the latest Big East Round-Up.

UConn overcoming a defensive glass downturn

UConn continued its undefeated start to the Big East season with an overtime home win over Villanova this past weekend. Head coach Dan Hurley is simply a winner, and his team finds itself at 19-1 with its only loss coming to the No. 1 team in the country, Arizona, while playing without two starters in Tarris Reed and Braylon Mullins. That said, though, the Huskies are looking increasingly vulnerable. After ranking second on Bart Torvik through Jan. 4, they have posted just the 31st-best ranking since then.

Hoop-Explorer shows a drop from UConn posting a +34.9 adjusted net rating through its first 15 games, to just a +25.0 adjusted net rating over its last five games:

The biggest changes have been on the defensive end. The Huskies have still been strong at limiting shot efficiency, but not nearly at the elite level they were earlier. The larger issue, though, is on the glass, where UConn is giving up a 37.4% offensive rebounding rate over its last five games compared to only a 26.7% rate over its first 15. 

The second-chance points allowed have been particularly noticeable over the last three games: Seton Hall scored 19, Georgetown 17, and Villanova 22. With a lower OR% of their own also playing a factor, UConn has lost the second-chance points battle in five straight.

All this being said, UConn is still 5-0 over this stretch of “down” play. While the Huskies appear capable of overcoming allowing second-chance points, a rebound — pun intended — might be necessary to remain in the upper echelon of national title contenders.

Dillon Mitchell epitomizes St. John's margin domination

St. John’s ranks around the middle of the Big East in effective field goal percentage offense (51.6%, 6th) and defense (50.7%, 7th), yet is 8-1 with top-3 rankings in overall efficiency on both ends of the floor. The propelling reason for the Red Storm’s strong play is not its own shooting or defense of shots, but rather its domination of the shot distribution. They are controlling both the turnover and rebounding margins, and as such, are creating major differentials in field goal and free throw attempts:

St. John’s is the only Big East team to rank in the top-5 of the league in both FGA margin and FTA margin — and it ranks top-2 in both categories.

St. John’s posted lower eFG%s than both Seton Hall (37.3% compared to 42.2%) and Xavier (53.7% to 54.9%) during its games this past week, but won both of them. A major factor was winning the rebounding and turnover battles in both games, leading to attempting eight more field goals and nine more free throws than the Pirates and Musketeers.

From an individual standpoint, Dillon Mitchell stands out as a tone-setter. He ranks in the top-10 of the Big East during league play in offensive and defensive rebounding rates, plus generates a decent number of steals. During this past week, in particular, his scoring stood out with 34 points across the two games, but he also secured 18 rebounds and six steals.

Acaden Lewis might determine Villanova’s ceiling

Villanova gave UConn everything it can handle over the weekend, leading for nearly 30 minutes before eventually falling in overtime on the road. Even in defeat, it was impressive to hang with the nation’s No. 2 team (per the AP poll) while talented freshman Acaden Lewis struggled to the point of playing just 3:57 of the last 16:45. He finished with only 4 points on 1-for-13 shooting. 

Lewis has had a strong freshman season, averaging 11.9 points and 5.2 assists per game. However, he has averaged just 5.8 points on 7-for-37 (18.9%) shooting across Villanova’s four toughest games: vs. BYU, at Michigan, vs. St. John’s, at UConn. The drop-off in performance from Quadrant 3+4 games to Quadrant 1+2 games is notable: 

The decision to lean on veterans down the stretch against UConn wasn’t the first time this season, with head coach Kevin Willard having also done so against BYU in the season-opener. The decision is understandable, given how Lewis has struggled in such games, but his development against such opponents could be what defines Villanova’s ceiling.

The best version of Villanova against top teams now appears to be with Bryce Lindsay, Devin Askew, and Tyler Perkins running the show, but it is 0-4 against KenPom top 30 — with three losses coming by eight points or fewer. If Lewis can breakthrough against such competition, even if still as the fourth guard behind his more experienced teammates, the close defeats could turn to victories when it matters most: March. The talent is there.

Finley Bizjack keeps Butler's bubble from popping

Butler returned to the bubble conversation after a road win over Seton Hall on Jan. 17 in which Finley Bizjack appeared to break a slump. Between Dec. 16 and Jan. 14, Bizjack had only been averaging 12.1 points per game on 11-for-45 from three, but lit up the Pirates for 25 points, his first 22+-point game since Dec. 13. He has since reached that mark in the back-to-back games that have followed as well: 24 vs. DePaul and 28 vs. Marquette. 

Bizjack earned Big East Player of the Week honors for his performances: 

While Marquette’s defense only ranks 127th in adjusted efficiency, Bizjack’s performances against Seton Hall (10th in AdjD) and DePaul (52nd in AdjD) are encouraging. Butler’s bubble hopes might rely on Bizjack playing at an All-Big East level, and he has been the driving force of a now-three-game win streak.

The wins over Marquette and DePaul are not major resume-boosters, but Butler is now back above-.500 in Quadrant 1-through-3 games. It also still has a neutral-site nonconference win over Virginia to its credit. The Bulldogs have work to do to earn their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2020 (projected No. 5 seed pre-COVID shutdown), but are in the First/Next Four Out mix ahead of a Quadrant 1 opportunity at St. John’s this week.

Spoiler Alert: Xavier’s Tre Carroll

Xavier went 0-2 this past week but struck fear in Creighton and St. John’s along the way. The Bluejays needed a second-chance buzzer beater after a missed free throw to win at home, while the Red Storm came from down as many as 16 to avoid the upset. The two results followed wins over Providence and Butler at home in the previous week, and Xavier has now jumped 21 spots on KenPom since Jan. 10. The Musketeers’ +2.68 movement in adjusted efficiency margin over this stretch is the 31st-largest in the country.

Leading the way has been Tre Carroll, who has wreaked havoc on Xavier’s opponents of late. The 6-8 forward has averaged 26.8 points and 5.5 rebounds over the Musketeers’ last four games, shooting 38-for-57 (66.7%) inside the arc and 6-for-14 (42.9%) beyond it. Carroll has been essential throughout the season for Xavier (season-long +16.1 adjusted on-off margin), but even more of late: the Musketeers have been performing at the level of the No. 24 team in the country with him on the floor over the last four games.

Although likely out of the at-large picture itself, Xavier is nonetheless dangerous. The home win over Butler was already a blow to one of the league’s bubble teams, while its performance against St. John’s showed it can compete with anyone right now. The Musketeers’ next matchup, on the road at a bubblicious Seton Hall team that has lost four straight, is another opportunity to play spoiler. Carroll ranks second in the Big East in scoring during league play.

Games to watch this week:

  • Jan. 31: UConn at Creighton (Thrill Score: 72.1)
    • 8:00pm ET on FOX
  • Jan. 27: Creighton at Marquette (Thrill Score: 55.5)
    • 9:30pm ET on TNT
  • Jan. 28: Butler at St. John's (Thrill Score: 54.0)
    • 7:00pm ET on Peacock
  • Jan. 28: DePaul at Georgetown (Thrill Score: 49.7)
    • 8:30pm ET on Fox Sports 1
  • Jan. 28: Xavier at Seton Hall (Thrill Score 49.6)
    • 7:30pm ET on Peacock