We’re in for a treat this final month of regular-season ball. We’re finally getting those marquee, top-of-the-league matchups consistently. Kansas has turned into a late contender for protected seed consideration. UCF has proven to be a team that can frustrate and challenge higher seeds come tournament time. And now the undefeated Arizona Wildcats hold the #1 ranking in the AP Poll, coinciding with their 22-0 record, the best record they’ve held in program history. And Houston and Iowa State are trying to chase them down and fight for the conference title with top-seed aspirations.
Six Big 12 teams remain in the top 25 of the NET rankings through February 4th. Here’s a look at how recent games have impacted three of those teams and who has been at the core of their rises and slumps.
Jaden Bradley is Arizona
Arizona is an elite team with an ensemble of talent that has brought them to their #1 ranking in the AP Poll. And certain members and positions stand out with the style of play that Tommy Lloyd’s team has fine-tuned. You have the potential future lottery Koa Peat, you have a trio of frontcourt players alongside him who make Arizona second in the country in points in the paint per game and in the 99th percentile for offensive rebounding percentage.
And freshman guard Brayden Burries has developed into the team’s leading scorer and lone volume perimeter threat as the year’s gone on. But there is a surprisingly undersung contributor to this team who’s been overlooked throughout his time in Tucson and even in his senior year: Jaden Bradley. Averaging 14.6 points, 4.4 assists and 3.3 rebounds in Big 12 play, the accounting stats don’t fully paint the picture of how vital and integral the fourth-year guard is for making Arizona a top-five offense and defense in the country.
Bradley hasn’t been the KenPom MVP of a single game this season, but he’s also had an offensive rating under 100 in just two games this season. He also rises to the moment, especially in big games. In Quadrant 1 matchups, he’s averaging 18.8 points per game and his effective field goal percentage rises from 54.6% on the season to 58.4%. In the second halves of games, Bradley increases his make rate at the rim, and when defenders overpursue his dribble drives, he becomes a knockdown mid-range shooter, going from 41.7% on jumpers to 51.7%.
But just focusing on the offense misses how game-changing Bradley is on the other end. Brian Rauf highlighted his defense in last week’s Rauf Report, sharing clips of Bradley’s on-ball pressure that frazzled BYU’s offense throughout the Wildcats’ road win against the Cougars.
Per Synergy, the point-of-attack defender has limited his matchup to 0.8 points per possession when he’s defending their shot. In the pick-and-roll, he’s holding his man to 38% shooting from the field. Spot-up shooters are shooting just 26.7% shooting when they’re his assignment.
Bradley may not be the explosive engine that makes Arizona the best team in the country. But his work in the margins, steadiness in the clutch and two-way play are key reasons that the Wildcats are built to bully opponents until they outlast even the best teams in the country and this conference.
Red Raiders still need a third guy
Depth and the supporting cast have rightfully been concerns for Texas Tech throughout the season, and that pitfall has reared its head again as the Red Raiders dropped their last two games, against Kansas earlier this week and on the road against UCF last weekend.
The Kansas loss is explainable and, in some aspects, respectable considering they were without lead guard Christian Anderson, who was held out due to illness. Without the 18-point scorer who averages 39.5 minutes in Big 12 play, the Red Raiders lost by just 3 points to Kansas, one of the hottest teams in the country. Freshman Jaylen Petty and Donovan Atwell couldn’t fill the void that Anderson left, combining for 7 for 22 shooting from three.
But the replacement guard play wasn’t and hasn’t been the issue for McCasland’s team during this rough patch; it’s been the frontcourt. JT Toppin’s Herculean effort is encumbered by the fact that he’s currently carrying a group that just hasn’t been able to replace Darrion Williams in the aggregate.
Lejuan Watts’ efficiency has cratered over his last five games, something that wasn’t even a point of strength for him in Lubbock. This season, Watts holds an effective field goal percentage of 43.4%. Since January 17th against BYU, that average has dropped to 36.2% and an alarming 37.5% from inside the arc. And with all the focus on Toppin, the 7th-best 2pt defense in the country held the Preseason All-American to 5-for-18 from the field and his worst offensive rating of the season. The Red Raiders look to get back on track on the road against West Virginia, who are 4-1 as hosts in league play.
Cyclones regain their footing
Every team hits a rough patch in the season that challenges them to either recommit to their philosophy or adapt to players dealing with cold streaks, injuries and the grind of the season. Both paths could work, or they can push the team towards a continued decline that they can’t recover from the final weeks or months of the season.
The back-to-back losses for TJ Otzleberger’s teams three weeks ago felt like that moment. We’d see the Cyclones recede a season before; they dipped from an analytical top team to a decent 3 seed that would lose in the second round of the tournament. But the Cyclones rebounded swiftly against the middle tier of the Big 12 and are back to being a top-5 team in the NET. Since their last loss, the Cyclones have been the number one team in Bart Torvik.
Iowa State has two great players in senior guard Tamin Lipsey and senior forward Joshua Jefferson, but the development and season-long efficiency of junior forward Milan Momcilovic have vaulted their ceiling and spacing, maximizing all three lead players. The shooting splits for the stretch forward have been absurd. Where Jefferson lives in the paint and at the rim, 51% of Momcilovic’s attempts come from above the three-point break. He’s boasting a 72.7% effective field goal percentage on the season, thanks to his nation-best 54% from the three-point line on 163 attempts.
Momcilovic is also a maestro at getting to his spots. He holds his own pace when setting up midrange fade-aways. Otzleberger’s offense gets him clean looks in his best shooting zones. He’s currently shooting 72.7% on right-corner three attempts this season, more than double the efficiency of the national average of 35.9%.
We’re too far into the season to expect or predict Momcilovic’s shooting to fall off, he’s matching similar efficiency in Big 12 games as he did in the nonconference. And with Jefferson and Lipsey both ramping back to their early-season efficiency, Iowa State may surpass the wall that their teams have seen since Otzleberger brought them back to their winning ways in 2023-2024.
Games to Watch
- Oklahoma State at Arizona, 4 pm ET, ESPN
- Houston at Baylor, Saturday, 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
- Texas Tech at West Virginia, 1 pm ET, FOX
- UCF at Cincinnati, 2 pm ET, CBSSN
- Arizona at Kansas, Monday, 9 pm ET, ESPN
