As the celebration and ceremony get underway in Indianapolis, the top storylines in college basketball range from North Carolina’s job opening to the heavyweight battle between Arizona and Michigan. But somehow the most dominant number entering Saturday isn’t Michigan’s blowout wins while scoring 90 points or more, or Arizona playing 0 garbage time possessions. It’s the number 19.
On Saturday, UConn senior forward Alex Karaban is starting his 19th career NCAA Tournament game, passing his coach Dan Hurley’s brother Bobby Hurley, for the second most appearances in the tournament.
Last weekend’s game-winning three-pointer from Braylon Mullins is understandably at the center of UConn’s angle to the championship festivities, and understandably. It was the epitome of March Magic, but it also told a story of how a leader takes in clutch moments and does whatever it takes to win.
“When I saw Braylon [Mullins],” Karaban said. “For some reason, I had the gut instinct to pass it to him. I looked at the rim and there [were] five seconds left, and I thought maybe something better could develop.”
It’s not shocking that the ball finds the senior in the biggest moments. Per CBB Analytics, his usage rate jumps from 18.4% to 24.7% in clutch moments (when the score is within 6 points and there are 5 minutes or less left in regulation or overtime). In those final deciding minutes of games, Karaban is shooting 42.9% from the perimeter.
“It's like having an associate head coach,” Hurley said. “That is in the locker room, that lives in the apartments, that is in the dining, that is in the weight room, that's peer pressuring his teammates to do extra. It's like having a top assistant that's on your team and always around your players.”
Karaban leads UConn in career wins, career made three-pointers and minutes and games played. As Hurley and the Huskies needed to refind their footing through stumbles last season, it was common for detractors to point to the roster turnover from the back-to-back champions and question whether or not the 6-8 forward was necessarily the caliber of player to be “the guy.”
But the winningest Husky of all-time has shown throughout this final stretch of his career that the greatness of the individual and a team are intertwined. If you want to call Karaban the benefactor of the system that is UConn’s motion, you also have to reckon with how perfect of a player the stretch forward is at maximizing the looks that it provides.
“I definitely feel like I'm playing my best,” Karaban said after his win against Michigan State. “I feel the most confident I've felt my entire career, just riding the hot hand I have right now.”
The senior is a matchup nightmare when UConn is playing competently at the guard spots and Tarris Reed is demanding the attention he warrants in the paint. Karaban moves off ball and navigates through multiple screens so adeptly that it looks like a guard is winding through picks to get open looks.
Karaban is shooting 51.3% as a spot-up shooter this season, scoring at 1.37 points per possession. He’s shooting 50% when defended in zone, and 48% in the halfcourt, putting him in the 90th percentile in efficiency while taking over 90% of his looks within the motion halfcourt offense.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Karaban is lethal in late shot clock looks. The motion offense demands so many actions that the clock gets eaten away, but once his teammates find him through multiple off-ball screens, he’s able to capitalize, shooting 56% and averaging 1.13 points per attempt.
It’s also important to point out that the senior is not your typical stretch four. Getting him looks from off-ball motion above the break of the three-point line utilizes his uncanny ability to catch and shoot off motion with his feet underneath him. But UConn exploits how defenses adjust to his movement off screens by then getting him looks towards the basket.
Are you going to take your forward off him and switch a wing or guard onto him? Expect him to now be used as a roll man off the picks he sets. The four-man is going to extend his defense further out? Enjoy these weakside cutting actions. Karban is scoring 1.37 points per possession as the roll man and 1.31 points per possession as a cutter.
The amount of motion and distance Karban covers throughout a game is staggering when you account for the minutes he logs. He’s averaging 37.2 minutes per game in the NCAA tournament, providing 17.8 points, 2.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds.
Throughout their run this March and April, Karaban’s coach has purposefully heaped praise on his assistant-in-uniform, opening press conferences with pointed recognition of his impact.“The greatness of the man next to me,” Hurley said after Karaban’s 27-point outing in the Round of 32, “should be celebrated at all corners of the media…. what he's done in college basketball for four year… No one's been better in college sports the last four years in terms of being a winner.”
And in these moments, you see Karaban almost recoil from the attention and praise. After going 9 for 18 from the field, hyping up his teammates throughout the game, suddenly, he’s reserved and quiet again, bashfully sinking down into his chair.
“Alex is pretty introverted,” Hurley said the next week. “Except when basketball starts, and then he becomes an extrovert. There's a metamorphosis with this guy.”
“I think throughout my years I've definitely had to adjust to my role for the team,” Karaban said. “My main focus right now is to really lead this team, help these guys out, make sure everyone is themselves and confident. Picking guys up if they make a mistake or continue to support everybody out there on the court and really just do whatever it takes to win.”
In the miraculous second-half push against Duke, Karaban and his teammates shook off their disastrous early shooting slump, where they made just one of their first 18 attempts from three. Karaban himself was 1 for 9 from the field and 0-5 from behind the arc in the first 39 minutes of what looked like his last game in a UConn uniform.
But Karaban was undeterred and made his first three with 50 seconds left in the game to cut Duke’s lead to 1 point. The Huskies finished the game 4-for-5 from three.
“I knew eventually the shots would fall,” Karaban said postgame. “We had so many good looks this game, they just weren't falling. You can't really let your confidence die down when you don't see shots go in.”
“My message to him is,” Hurley said, “if you're going to go out in this tournament, you've got to go out on your shield. You've got to go out firing, or you're going to have a lot of regrets.”
Karban now enters the Final Four with a chance to end his career with a third national championship and a 20th NCAA Tournament game. His shooting and spacing are a pivotal aspect to Saturday’s game against an Illinois team that, despite their recent tournament performances, hasn’t shown much season-long success against well-spaced offenses. The even-keeled marksman will no doubt be ready for the opportunity.
“I've been through a lot of experiences,” Karaban said. “I've been through a lot of highs and lows. The main thing is just trusting the work. I work so hard every single day, and I just know the preparation is going to prepare me for these moments.”