We have a bracket! It's true.

This is an update of previous posts ran at a previous newsletter that explored the depths of that year's NCAA Tournament field. This is nearly 3,000 words, so let's get to it.

Everything noted below is over the last 24 NCAA Tournaments, from 2002 to present.

1 seeds

At an average AdjEM of +37.18, this is the strongest batch of 1 seeds in history, beating the record of +36.12...set last year.
Out of 96 1 seeds from 2002 to now, Duke sits with the sixth-highest Final Four odds of any 1 seed in history. I guess this would be more notable if, you know, Arizona wasn't 10th-best in Final Four odds...and Michigan 11th. (Florida is 70th, for the record.)
Not only does Michigan have the third-highest Sweet Sixteen odds ever for a 1 seed (2021 Gonzaga, 2015 Kentucky), this is the SECOND TIME IN AT LEAST 25 YEARS that three (Michigan, Duke, Arizona) of the four 1 seeds are at 85% or better to make the second weekend. The other year: 2019, which saw all four 1 seeds make the Sweet Sixteen.
Well, I wish I had better news for you about Round of 64 chaos. The +42.51 AdjEM gap from 1s to 16s is only surpassed by 2025, which saw 1 seeds win by an average of 32 points per game in the opening round. The only gap prior to 2025 that's even close is 2019, which saw them win by an average of 21 PPG. Maybe one will be within 15, but it's a stretch to predict which game.
The good news: it's not the largest gap ever, or even the second-largest, from 1s to 8/9s or from 1s to 4/5s. It's +17.05 this year, which comes in behind 2019 and 2015. Good news: in 2015, a 1 seed did lose to an 8. Bad news: this is actually a slightly larger gap than last year, though I would chalk this up more to Gonzaga not being an 8 seed. The gap is also significantly shorter from 1s to 4s and 5s than last year by about 2 points per 100 and is a near dead ringer for 2019, which saw a 1 seed lose to a 5.

2 seeds

Shocker: at +31.03 AdjEM on average, this is the strongest batch of 2 seeds ever.
No 2 seed has better Final Four odds than Houston at 25.5%, and I didn't even factor them playing functional home games in the latter two rounds. However, this is actually a hair below last year's leader (Tennessee, 26.3%) and 22nd all-time. More notable, UConn's Final Four odds of 13% are 82nd of 96 over the last 25 years. No one below 14% has ever made it (0-for-16).
One minor note: 2 seeds at 50% or better to make the Elite Eight are, 7-for-13 in getting there. Hey, beats the average 42% rate for 2 seeds. (Iowa State's at 49.9%, so they count.)
Of the seven 2 seeds to eat it in the Round of 64 since 2002, all were 94.4% or lower to win their R64 game, and five of the seven had a Shot Volume Index of +2 or lower. No one qualifies this year, FWIW.
Don't get your hopes up for an exciting Round of 64...or Round of 32. This is the largest gap ever from 2s to 15s (+31.96) and from 2s to 7s/10s (+11.6). I mean, if you want some cope, the previous highs from 2015 and 2019 resulted in a pair of 2 seeds losing in the second round.
The good news is that 2 seeds aren't as far off of 1s as last year. The gap of -6.14 AdjEM to the 1s is more like 2011, but no 1s or 2s made the Final Four that year, so it's kinda pointless.

3 seeds

After a nice run where 3 seeds kind of sucked, we're back to dominance. The +28.82 AdjEM is the highest ever for 3 seeds - get used to hearing this, sorry! - and smashes last year's record of +26.43.
This is the fourth time over the last 25 years - 2008, 2015, 2024 - where all four 3 seeds are 50% or better to make the Sweet Sixteen. Those years, the 3 seeds were 8-for-12 in seeing the second weekend.
I have more bad news. The gap between 3s and 14s, at +26.68, absolutely demolished the previous high I had in my database...of +20.96 last year. Exactly one of those games, Texas Tech/UNCW, was even interesting for 30 minutes let alone 40.
Also, the gap between 3s and 6/11s is the highest ever at +8.72 AdjEM. Jesus, man. If you want some cope, and I know you do, the previous high in 2018 saw two 3 seeds lose to 11s with every single game the 3s played being close.

4 seeds

Buddy, guess what. With a +25.42 AdjEM, this is the highest-rated group of 4 seeds ever.
Arkansas has the 11th-highest odds ever for a 4 seed to make the Sweet Sixteen, but I'll note all of them are at least above the historical 4 seed average of 45% to make the Sweet Sixteen. Kansas is lowest at 45.7%.
More bad news: this year's 4 seeds all rank inside the top 16 out of 96 total for odds to make the Round of 32. Only one team (2024 Auburn) out of this group has lost. Don't get your hopes up, especially considering the +19.63 AdjEM gap is the highest on record (again) for 4s vs. 13s.
The second-round games should be much more interesting for this group, as we'll get to...

5 seeds

Because the 5 seeds are better than the 4s this year at +25.64 AdjEM. This is the first year since 2022 the 5s are better than the 4s, and that year a 5 did make the Elite Eight (Houston).
That comes with bad news again. With a +14.26 AdjEM gap from the 5s to the 12s, this is the largest gap ever. The only two years even in the same universe are 2015 and 2016 at around +11.12 and +11.15. 2015: 5s went 4-0. 2016: 5s went...2-2! Maybe we'll hope for 3-1.
Folks! Folks. Vanderbilt has the highest odds EVER for a 5 seed to win their Round of 64 game. The previous high was 2005 Michigan State, who...well, beat Old Dominion 89-81 and had to make a second-half comeback.
For the first time I can find in Tournament history, all four 5 seeds are at 75% or higher to win their Round of 64 game. In fact, no other year even had all five at 70% or better.

6 seeds

+23.89 AdjEM, strongest ever.
At +7.59 AdjEM, this is the second-largest gap ever from 6s to 11s. Some of this is having an unusually low 11 in Miami (OH), but even with the RedHawks removed, it would still be the largest gap since 2009, which did have one 11-over-6.
Good news for your 6s if you love them and want them to finally make a Final Four: for just the second time ever (2009), multiple 6 seeds (Louisville and Tennessee) are at 70% or higher to make the Round of 32. Tennessee quietly has the third-best odds ever...though, hey, the two teams with better odds (2009 WVU, 2017 SMU) both lost.
Here's the reverse of this, and a fascinating split to figure out. With injuries factored in, both UNC and BYU are below 55% to make the Round of 32. This is just the second time since 2016 (2024) where multiple 6 seeds are at 55% or worse to make the Round of 32...and in 2016 and 2024, 11 seeds went 3-1. What if!

7 seeds

FINALLY. The 7 seeds are lesser than last year at +21.74 AdjEM. Finally! Oh wait, they have to play the 2 seeds.
The gap from 7s to 10s is +4.62 AdjEM, the second-largest in history behind last year. The thing to know about these is, of course, is that it all comes back to the middle anyway. (The 7s and 10s split the games last year.)

8 seeds

At a +20.49 AdjEM, this is the second-strongest batch of 8 seeds...behind last year. Interestingly:

9 seeds

These guys are averaging a +19.77 AdjEM, making them the strongest 9 seeds in history. For once, the gap between 8s and 9s is basically nothing at +0.72 AdjEM. I think all of these games will be really competitive and topsy-turvy.

10 seeds

The good news here: the 10 seeds are the third-strongest we've ever seen at +17.12 AdjEM. The bad news: everyone ahead of them is extremely strong too.

11 seeds

You can look at this two different ways. They're a +16.29 AdjEM, which is nice, and this continues the trend over the last several years of a really strong 11 line. Also, this rises to a +17.44 if you remove Miami (OH), which makes them as strong as last year's batch. So, the problem: last year's 11 seeds went 1-3.

12 seeds

Here's where the fun instantly ends. I apologize. With a +11.38 AdjEM, this is the fifth-worst batch of 12 seeds in the last 25 years. I am willing to give some grace here, as Northern Iowa's ranking absolutely tanked thanks to midseason injuries, with Torvik data suggesting they're more of a top-60 unit than 72nd. Even so, giving UNI a couple extra efficiency points would only make this the sixth-worst batch in history. They have a chance, of course; just not a great one. If you give UNI a three-point bump or so, which feels fair, it gives them a 25% chance against St. John's.

13 seeds

...oh boy. At a +5.79 AdjEM, this is the worst batch of 13 seeds in history. By a lot. The good news is the previous low was 2008, which saw Siena beat Vanderbilt, but that was also an unusually bad 4 seed to draw. When your lowest 4 seed is Kansas and just one 13 seed (Hofstra) is a top-100 team, it's a bad time.

14 seeds

+2.14 AdjEM, the lowest ever, only surpassed by 2022. Exactly one 3/14 game that year was within 25 points, and again, it required an all-time bad 3 seed in Wisconsin. The equivalent this year would be Virginia...but Wright State probably isn't near the level of that Colgate team.

15 seeds

Ah brother. A -0.92 AdjEM, the worst on record, and the second time in Tournament history (2002) that the 15 seeds collectively were below the national average in efficiency. I guess the good thing is that a couple of the 2/15s that year were close?

16 seeds

I HAVE GREAT NEWS. GREAT NEWS. At -5.33 AdjEM, this is ONLY the fifth-worst batch of 16 seeds in history. Just fifth-worst! Wait, why aren't you smiling?

What does it all mean?

We do two check-ins a year on the field at large, and in both January and February, my thought was that while we were very unlikely to have two consecutive Final Fours of all 1 seeds, we were also likely to have another NCAA Tournament light on upsets. With the reveal of the actual NCAA Tournament field, I feel that we're probably staring down this as more of a certainty than a probability.

I mean, look at your Round of 64 numbers here.

The gap between 1 and 16 seeds is +42.51 AdjEM on average, the second-highest ever.
The gap between 2 and 15 seeds is +31.96 AdjEM on average, the highest ever.
The gap between 3 and 14 seeds is +26.68 AdjEM on average, the highest ever.
The gap between 4 and 13 seeds is +19.63 AdjEM on average, the highest ever.
Lastly, the gap between 5 and 12 seeds is +14.26 AdjEM on average...which, yeah, highest ever. At least 6 vs. 11 is only second-highest.

As someone who does like upsets, particularly in the opening round, you should probably prepare for one of the driest Round of 64s in history. The expected number of upsets, per the numbers, is just 3. I have 0.8 expected on the 1-4 lines, which isn't impossible, but I would like for the odds of the 1-4 seeds going 16-0 to be smaller than 44%. Even in 2017, the year I thought 2026 to be most similar to earlier on, the 1-4 seeds had just a 21% shot of going undefeated.

I'm genuinely hoping a surprise sneaks through, but the odds are worse than ever, which feels really bad for the sport heading forward. I'm not quite ready to sacrifice the Round of 64 just yet, the two best days in sports, to guarantee a tremendous Round of 32. Even then, it's no guarantee that would occur.

So: what years correlate strongest to 2026 with the bracket in hand? I see a few that stand out amongst the morass of data.

2015. This year had an exceptionally strong upper crust, but it was strong just about everywhere. (This was also a year with a great freshman class.) This had the same extremely high average for 1 seeds, as well as the massive 5-12 gap, which resulted in zero 12 over 5 upsets. But! There were a pair of 14-over-3s, which would be nice. Final Four: 1, 1, 1, 7.
2019. Extremely top-heavy and previously had the record for highest 1-16 and 1-4 vs. 13-16 gaps until 2025. This has been my standard for Haves vs. Have Nots Tournaments for a while. A 13 seed did win a game, and the Final Four went 1/2/3/5, but as you'll recall, no 1 or 2 seeds lost the opening weekend.
2025. Goes without saying. 2026 is awfully similar to last year with dominant 1 seeds and a really weak bottom tier. No wins from the 13-16 lines last year, and you'll recall the all 1-seed Final Four.

The good(?) news, I guess, is that I could also see some amount of correlations with 2021. That year had a really strong field on the whole, complete with two super-dominant teams that essentially ran college basketball all season long. This year has three, so maybe not, but we were essentially one Franz Wagner airball away from a 1/1/1/2 Final Four. Then again...we got an 11 seed and an insane Round of 64 that year. I don't think that'll happen.

Sadly, I'm anticipating another chalk year. My fear is that the Round of 64 is going to have maybe two or three 'true' upsets, and even a potential 13-over-4 is more of a prayer than something I'm genuinely ready to believe in. Still, I would wager the Round of 32 should bring more chaos than the Round of 64, and you'll still get Tournament staples like a 10+ seed in the Sweet Sixteen and a 6 or 7 seed (especially this year of all years, apparently) in the Elite Eight.

But for the title game, your champion will almost certainly be a 1, and your odds are north of 50% to me that the title game will include two 1 seeds. Use this information how you will, I suppose.

In total, here's my expectations by round. Upsets: 4+ seed difference.

Round of 64: Light on upsets, maybe 2-3. I think all 16 1-4 seeds will advance, and I hope to be wrong.
Round of 32: The same number of upsets as the Round of 64 if not more. I'll guess 3. I will wager that all four 1 seeds and three 2 seeds advance.
Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight: In this era, I think a lot of these games will become weighted coin-flips. As such: I don't think all four 1 seeds will make the Elite Eight and/or Final Four. My bet is that at least one 1 seed will be gone by the Elite Eight. Florida? Maybe?
Final Four: Two 1 seeds and two non-1 seeds. I'd wager a 2 and...I don't know, a 4 or 5? You will have a 1 seed champion.

It's the best week of the year every year. Don't worry too much about all this. Just enjoy the hoop.