Hello! Welcome to Part Two of the conference tournament previews. If you missed Part One, check it out here. Here's how these work. I break down all 31 conference tournaments, with each of the following included:

  • KenPom conference ranking
  • Favorites (30% or higher to win)
  • Darkhorses (10% or higher)
  • Best team overall, in non-conference, and in conference play
  • The average analytics ‘seed’ (aka, where they ranked in the regular season) of the winner
  • Number of times the non-best team won the conference tournament
  • Tournament analysis (who’s hot, who’s not, if previous matchups may matter, etc.)
  • Best pick for March Madness
  • Winner prediction, as provided by RANDOM.ORG
  • And a watchability rating out of 10!

Here's your obligatory chart of all the games and tourneys.

Let's roll.

America East

All favorites won, so just imagine the TBDs replaced with the 1-4s.

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 11 AM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 30th of 31
  • Favorites: UMBC (67.3%)
  • Darkhorses: Vermont (24.8%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: UMBC
    • Non-conference: Vermont
    • Conference: UMBC
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 1.9
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 6

We join this one in progress, as the AEast's format is elongated for reasons beyond my control and my comprehension and functions like an extended regular season. Maybe that's why the favorites usually win this tournament! (Also that the higher seed hosts each round.)

At press time there's a ~68% chance of a UMBC/Vermont final, which feels very fair because UMBC was clearly the best team in conference play and Vermont clearly the best team over the first few weeks of the season. I can't proclaim I love either for March purposes, but hey, that's why they play the games.

I do think UMBC's the better team and has a fantastic three-headed backcourt, but if you haven't seen the Gus Bus for Vermont yet, it is an insane and wild ride. After flailing at a couple of P5s Yalden has found his level at Vermont and is the league's best player by a sizable margin. They split the season series with similar scoring margins, though Yalden wasn't too great in either. They'll need as much Bus as humanly available to get over the top in a rubber match.

Best pick for March Madness: The winner here is probably a 16 seed, though UMBC would have a reasonable shot at a 15. I guess I lean them, but there's not much meaningful difference between them and the Catamounts to me.

The winner is… How about this! UMBC gets it done, but NJIT pulls off a shocker over Vermont to make the title game.

Watchability rating: Even Gus Bus cannot save this from a 1/10. A conference that plays super-slow and doesn't score with their slow possessions and has weak frontcourts is not for me.

MEAC

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 1 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 31st of 31
  • Favorites: Howard (75.1%)
  • Darkhorses: Norfolk State (8.8%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Howard
    • Non-conference: Howard
    • Conference: Howard
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.6
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 12 possible), 2012-present: 6

This is KenPom's worst-ranked league, which is what happens when most of the participants are 320th or worse. However, for once, there is a clear and obvious favorite here. Howard is the highest-ranked team in the league by over 100 spots even though they only won the league by a single game. An 0-2 start put them in a hole they climbed out of, and for over a month now no one has come close to taking them down. They even pushed top-80 Yale to overtime.

The bracket presents some intriguing landmines for them, as they lost to 5-seed South Carolina State to begin conference play and with potential finalist Morgan State being the lone team to topple Howard at Burr Arena. Still, it's probably most educational to look at it this way: since changing to their current starting lineup on January 31 against Norfolk, Howard is 224 spots clear of their nearest competition at Torvik. A lot of that is being +17% from 3, but they're simply way ahead of the pack.

Best pick for March Madness: By a mile, you want Howard to win this league. They have the most talent, can assert themselves on the boards fairly well, and force a good amount of turnovers. They're a rare 2026 16 seed that I could see pushing a 1 for a half or so.

The winner is… Mostly according to plan: Howard over NC Central.

Watchability rating: This is the worst conference with the lowest scoring efficiency and the most turnovers, but it's still getting a 4/10. The MEAC plays a style all their own, and I can respect it.

Big 12

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPN, 6 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 2nd of 31
  • Favorites: Arizona (38.1%), Houston (32.3%)
  • Darkhorses: Kansas (9.9%), Texas Tech (9%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Arizona
    • Non-conference: Arizona
    • Conference: Arizona
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 8

The nation's most purely enjoyable Power Five league is going to provide a banger of a conference tournament, to the surprise of none. You are well aware of the work of Arizona, who is a lock for a 1 seed, and of Houston, a lock for no worse than a 2. But there's so much more to gawk at here. Iowa State can play their way onto the 3 line, much as Kansas also can, much as Texas Tech also can. There's a good chance that of the 16 protected seeds this year, the Big 12 will own five, which is the most of any conference and cements their status as this year's premier league.

Of course, the fact this league has 16 teams in it makes some of the accomplishments come with asterisks. TCU had the ninth-best schedule-adjusted Net Rating of any team in the league but drew the third-weakest conference schedule, which helped them get to 11-7. Meanwhile, Houston has the exact same Net Rating as Arizona, but due to the hardest in-conference schedule of any of the top five, they ended up 14-4 and possibly a tad underrated. (Reminder: Houston had to play at all of Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas...without any of them coming to Houston.)

Plus, the non-top five has a lot of fun stories. You're aware of BYU, but Cincinnati had an incredible finish to the season that makes them arguably more threatening than BYU. Over the last 10 games, the Bearcats have played like a top-20 team in the sport. Actually, how about this? Over the last 10 games, Baylor has played higher-quality basketball than Kansas, and they're this league's 13-seed. Their 12-seed, Arizona State, has played like a top-40 team for the last month. That's the level of major nightly competition you're dealing with in the Big 12.

Best pick for March Madness: We're going to exclude Arizona and Houston here because the reasoning for each is pretty obvious. My third pick from the Big 12 would be a mild surprise: are we 100% sure Iowa State isn't still a very obvious Final Four contender despite their downturn as of late? In terms of pure extra shots generated in the average game, they're only beaten by Houston and Gonzaga amongst all teams in America. I continue to believe that this is 1) a really strong formula for avoiding upsets, and 2) extremely helpful once you get out of the hell that is Big 12 conference play.

If forced to pick a non-top 6 team, you're clearly going Cincinnati, who rates as the sixth-best team in the league in conference play alone...but it would be a pleasant surprise if they even make the semifinals, let alone actually win the league.

The winner is… This simulation got really fun really fast. First off, Cincinnati made a shock run to the Big 12 title game. Secondly, so did Houston...who would take down UC for their second title in a row. Posts about "no team to win the title has ever lost their conference tournament opener" abound for Arizona. Also, in that situation...Cincinnati is probably in the Tournament? Maybe even beyond the Dayton tier? What a fascinating story that would be.

Watchability rating: Even with BYU's demise, this is a league that will have five of the 20 best teams involved in just this one tournament. The only other league that can say this is...none? Maybe the Big Ten? An easy 10/10.

Mountain West

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on CBS, 6 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 6th of 31
  • Favorites: Utah State (29.3%)
  • Darkhorses: San Diego State (22%), Grand Canyon (13.2%), New Mexico (12.8%), Boise State (10.8%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Utah State
    • Non-conference: Boise State
    • Conference: Utah State
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.2
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 6

Per our very own Lukas Harkins, this is a one-bid league, and the best anyone is doing on the bubble is New Mexico, who is in the Next Four Out category. So! This is my message to you that the Mountain West has a 71% chance of providing a Bid Thief™ for March Madness. Perhaps bad news if you're, say, SMU, but great news for the Mountain West, which had a really rough year. I would be bummed if the nation's most enjoyable mid-major league went out in its final true year as a one-bid league.

Utah State is the minor favorite here and for good reason, but over the last month, they've been the league's second-best team by efficiency and third-best by record. Both Colorado State (8-1) and Boise State (7-2) have been better, with Boise rounding into form by demolishing competition on the boards and Colorado State riding - you guessed it - a shooting heater. Those are your 6 and 7-seeds in this tournament, by the way. Plus, tournament host UNLV has played better lately, and all of New Mexico, San Diego State, and Grand Canyon (the league's best defense since February 1) are super dangerous. If you just did odds based on the last 12 games (roughly six weeks of play) it might tell the story better:

Basically, I have no idea what this one might produce. Almost anything other the sun, minus a bottom-four champion, is at least plausible.

Best pick for March Madness: I still believe Utah State has the best chance of anyone in this league at a sneaky second-weekend run, but considering their lock status, they're a given here. Is the second-best option still San Diego State? I can't say there's much about them I love, but they would probably have the best defense of anybody on the 11 line. I would hear out Grand Canyon for basically the same reasons.

The winner is… Well, it got weird: SDSU lost to Colorado State in the quarters, and Utah State was upset by Grand Canyon in the semis. Yet at the end of the day, New Mexico locked in a bid in Year One under Eric Olen by escaping GCU in the title game. Fun storyline if it happens!

Watchability rating: This wasn't a great version of the MWC, but this Tournament still typically delivers, and I can go no lower than an 8/10 with the knowledge it could easily be a 9.

Big East

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on FOX, 6:30 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 5th of 31
  • Favorites: St. John’s (46.3%), UConn (37.8%)
  • Darkhorses: Villanova (9.3%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: UConn
    • Non-conference: UConn
    • Conference: St. John’s
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.5
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 4

I mean, it's the freaking Big East Tournament. I'm not sure why you would need a sell here.

Best pick for March Madness: I can't say I like any of my options here, to be honest, but of them I still lean UConn as the league's most threatening option in March. Against Tournament-level competition (top-150), they're 8th in America. St. John's is 21st. Kinda that simple for me, though I wouldn't trust either after the Round of 64. I'm not sure I trust Villanova in the Round of 64 either, to be honest.

The winner is… The final is pretty normal, as St. John's takes down UConn and probably eliminates UConn from the 1 line. Something way more notable happened in this single simulation: SEMIFINALIST DEPAUL. May we be so lucky to experience that.

Watchability rating: Guys, it's the Big East Tournament. It should be a 10. But this year, the league is just so weak and is honestly the least exciting version of itself since...2019? And yet, I'm sure something wacky will happen. I'm also sure this is the most iconic conference tournament alive. Against my best judgment, this will get a 9/10 that I'm sure I won't regret.

SWAC

NOTE: This is NOT the exact format, but the SWAC Tournament tool at Torvik was broken for reasons I'm unsure of.

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPNU, 7:30 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 28th of 31
  • Favorites: Bethune Cookman (31.1%)
  • Darkhorses: Southern (22.4%), Florida A&M (10.8%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Bethune Cookman
    • Non-conference: Grambling State
    • Conference: Bethune Cookman
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.5
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 6

SWACsketball is always a wild ride. The best team in the non-conference has never been the best team in conference play in the time I've been doing these previews, and you can usually just pick Texas Southern in any Jerome pool and live on alright with it. That may not be the case this year, but the best team also usually doesn't win this league.

The good news this year is two-fold. Bethune Cookman has a great chance at their first-ever NCAA Tournament bid, which would be a wonderful story. The other item: the SWAC was legitimately much improved this year! At 28th, it's the league's first non-bottom 3 finish since 1997-98. Now, that year didn't result in anything pleasant for the champion, as Prairie View A&M lost to 1-seed Kansas by 58. But, hey, you don't know unless you try.

Also, the SWAC pulled off some nice non-conference wins this season. Bethune-Cookman beat Ohio on the road and took Auburn to overtime. Arkansas Pine Bluff beat UIC. Alabama State beat UAB. Southern didn't have a marquee win, but they have easily the best two-way shot volume numbers in the league. Bethune Cookman lost to Southern at home and very nearly got swept by Florida A&M, a potential foe in the SWAC final. The SWAC plays as chaotic a style of hoop as you'll find, which makes this well worth a little bit of time investment.

Best pick for March Madness: I don't think any of the teams here are capable of much more than a First Four win, but let me give you a surprise sell here on Grambling State, the league's 9 seed. Grambling had the best efficiency numbers in non-conference play, the league's second-best defense, and had a positive rebounding and turnover margin in league play. It would take a shocking number of outcomes to go their way, but this is a league that produces bizarre outcomes nearly every season.

The winner is… Actually not that absurd of an outcome here: Southern over Bethune Cookman in a final that shouldn't be a bummer but kinda is.

Watchability rating: I have this at a 5/10. If you can embrace the ugliness as a feature and not a bug, you could easily talk yourself into a 9...or, if you prefer free-flowing basketball, this might be a 1. Split the difference.

MAC

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 8 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 17th of 31
  • Favorites: Akron (45.1%), Miami (OH) (27.7%)
  • Darkhorses: Toledo (7.5%)?
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Akron
    • Non-conference: Akron
    • Conference: Miami (OH)
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.5
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 7

MACtion completely and fully returned this year, with two legitimate Tournament teams and the single most enjoyable story in college basketball. As such, it is time to declare something: this will be a two-bid league. For real.

As long as Miami (OH) finally takes a loss in the conference tournament, we're looking at a multi-bid MAC, which is a storyline so beautiful and great that it makes me smile thinking of all of the upset Power Five coaches looking at it. Bruce Pearl, tears flowing, face growing beet red as he watches the MAC produce two bids while the team he put together has zero...I don't know, I think the kids describe such a thing as 'cinema.'

Akron grades out as the better team overall and nearly toppled Miami in January, so they'll be a live dog here, but honestly, just about anyone can push the RedHawks. They had nine one-possession wins this season, so if they're tied with UMass in the quarterfinals or Bowling Green in the semis it won't be anything new. It also shouldn't matter, because they're in anyway. Deal with it.

Best pick for March Madness: Well, either Akron or Miami is fine. I think both would need the right matchup, but again, context is needed to look beyond Miami's KenPom ranking. Against top-200 competition this year they rate as the nation's 52nd-best team, while Akron is 62nd. I think they're a lot less moribund in March than the haters believe, though Akron's shot volume stuff is better.

The winner is… TWO BID MAC. Akron defeats Miami (OH) in the final by all of two points, handing the RedHawks their first loss of the season but ensuring the MAC's first multi-bid season since 1999. That year? Miami (OH) lost the tournament final, was a 10 seed...and made the Sweet Sixteen.

Watchability rating: I thought the MAC had an improved year and got a lot more entertaining as a result, but admittedly, I may be basing that entirely on Miami and/or Akron. We'll give this a 7/10.

ACC

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPN, 8:30 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 4th of 31
  • Favorites: Duke (66.7%)
  • Darkhorses: Virginia (11.4%), Louisville (9.1%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Duke
    • Non-conference: Duke
    • Conference: Duke
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 3.5
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 9

The Duke Invitational feels even more that way this year. Duke is in the 40s at KenPom, not in ranking, but in efficiency margin, which has only happened a couple of other times in history. Whether or not Duke is actually that historically great is up for debate, but what isn't is how far ahead they are of the rest of this league. No other team is even among KenPom's top 15, and the other top four seeds either got annihilated by Duke (UNC Saturday, Virginia last week) or never played them due to an 18-team league with bizarre and dumb scheduling philosophies (Miami).

Essentially, this ACC Tournament doesn't have very much of a draw for me. Duke is likely going to win it, and the storylines of sorts are all about middling bubble teams that are only playing their way into or out of the field because every other bubble team is equally bad. Like, would it be interesting if California shocks the world and beats Duke? Sure, but I'm not sure what about Cal's season or Duke's would indicate that's a serious possibility. Would it be nice to see Stanford go to the title game, or figure out if SMU does or doesn't want to play in the NCAA Tournament? I mean, I guess, but you're essentially praying for NC State Part Two to happen. Also, NC State is here, if you want to talk about annoying bubble teams that I don't enjoy watching.

The two most likely title games - Duke/UVA, Duke/Louisville - are at least interesting. I think UVA's better than what they showed in a road blowout to Duke, and Louisville has played like the nation's 17th-best team since losing to Duke in January. Then again, Louisville may be down Mikel Brown, and Virginia's offensive efficiency has taken one of the five largest negative hits of any P5 team since January. Yuck.

Best pick for March Madness: Duke. Obviously. Excluding the most obvious pick in world history, the second-most interesting team for March purposes from this league is Louisville to me. Yes, Louisville, the team that everyone hates and rarely beats great opponents. Why the Cards? Well, you might hate them, but metrics don't (17th KP), and they'll be a rare 5 or 6 seed with a top-30 offense and defense. Their top statistical comp at Torvik, for what it's worth, is 2013-14 Michigan State, a 4 seed that made the Elite Eight.

The winner is… An almost entirely predictable tournament goes Duke's way as they defeat Virginia in the final. One really interesting thing did happen in this simulation, though: SMU lost to Syracuse in the opening round of the Tournament. Obviously, they would be firmly out of the field if that happens, though bid thievery elsewhere might make that statement meaningless.

Watchability rating: I can't really go above a 6/10 here for a very simple reason: what evidence is there Duke won't simply rampage through this? I'm aware they have a couple of key injuries, but the second-best player in the league is done for the year and the third-best plays for Stanford.

Conference USA

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on CBSSN, 8:30 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 13th of 31
  • Favorites: ...none! Technically!
  • Darkhorses: Sam Houston State (28.8%), Liberty (23.3%), MTSU (13.7%), Western Kentucky (9.2%), Kennesaw State (9.1%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Sam Houston State
    • Non-conference: Sam Houston State
    • Conference: Liberty
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 5

After a few years of mostly normal results, CUSA Madness should be back this year. There are five teams with a 9% or higher chance to take this conference title, and no one even gets to a true 3-in-10 shot of making it happen. The league's highest-rated team, Sam Houston State, was the 2 seed by four full games behind Liberty, who was on pace for a potentially interesting at-large conversation before losing three of five to end the year.

Those are just the top two! All of Western Kentucky, MTSU, Louisiana Tech, Kennesaw State, and Jacksonville State are somewhere between 165th-208th at KenPom, and all finished 10-10 or 11-9. Any of them could get it done, as all three of Liberty's losses came to members of that group. (The Flames swept SHSU.) This CUSA was down from last year's fantastic CUSA, which produced the league's highest KenPom finish (9th) since 2011, but it's still a pretty solid one-bid league.

Best pick for March Madness: I can't say I love anyone that's available, but one thing I can't do is recommend Liberty; the Flames are an astonishing -21.1 per 100 on the boards in their 10 games versus top-150 teams this year. That's a one-way ticket to losing by 25 again. That probably leaves either Sam Houston State or Western Kentucky as your two best hopes for some madness. Both are good on the boards, and at least in SHSU's case, they've been fine offensively against better competition.

The winner is… Well, do you like same-ness? You will like this: Liberty over Kennesaw in the final. SHSU got knocked out in the semis by the Owls in a surprise run, but Liberty took care of business when it mattered.

Watchability rating: This is another 6/10 for me. No great teams, no awful ones, which means a lot of close games but not a ton of great ball. Pick and choose here.

Big West

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 10 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 12th of 31
  • Favorites: UC Irvine (34.5%), Hawaii (30%)
  • Darkhorses: UC San Diego (10.8%), UC Santa Barbara (9.6%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: UC San Diego
    • Non-conference: UC Irvine
    • Conference: UC San Diego
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 12 possible), 2012-present: 6

My beloved Big West, back for one final ride before three of its teams (two to the Mountain West, one to the West Coast) depart over the next 18 months. This conference always seems to deliver, both in March and throughout the rest of the year, with a defense-first attitude and a wide range of intriguing players and/or coaches that somehow end up being lifers in the league.

As is their yearly standard, UC Irvine paired a nasty offense with a nastier defense and gritted and ground their way to the 1 seed after an ugly start. This year's foe to be tangled with is a bit different, however. Hawaii has consistently been inside the top two all season, and their defense is arguably even saltier than Irvine's. If those two play in the title game, it might be first to 50.

However, neither were even among the two best teams in the league against top-200 competition this year. That would be UC San Diego and Cal State Northridge. UCSD, in Year One of Clint Allard, probably had the best non-conference performance of anyone before coming back down to earth in conference play due to a combination of shooting regression and injury. CSUN is pretty simple: no one in the Big West plays as quickly as they do or hammers the boards as hard, which makes them a strange change-up matchup when you're playing a lot of slower, more defense-first teams.

Also, UC Santa Barbara is here. They were the preseason favorite and barely made this tournament. Remember Aidan Mahaney? Remember Joe Pasternack? Well, they exist.

Best pick for March Madness: There's actually several interesting options here, and if you want to pick UCSD or UC Irvine I'd totally get it. But I think I roll with Hawaii as what's essentially Plus Irvine. Hawaii carries all of the same features - great defense, bad offense, concerning lack of shooting - but also offers the league's best player in Isaac Johnson, which gives Hawaii a dominant 7-footer and a dimension your average 13 seed typically doesn't own.

The winner is… Russell freakin' Turner, baby. UC Irvine over Hawaii in a final without much in the way of upsets leading into it.

Watchability rating: As a major Big West lover, I can go no higher than a 7/10. Hell of a league if you love defense, and I do. I am a Tennessee guy, after all.

WAC

Championship game: March 14 (Saturday) on ESPN2, midnight ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 11th of 31
  • Favorites: Utah Valley (51%)
  • Darkhorses: Cal Baptist (29.4%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Utah Valley
    • Non-conference: Utah Valley
    • Conference: Utah Valley
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 1.9
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 4

I can't claim to know what lies ahead for the WAC - I guess they'll merge conferences or something - but for a final act, they've not been short on drama. For one, the league's best team, Utah Valley, had to petition a court to even play in this because the WAC's mad about them not paying an exit fee. The second-best team, Cal Baptist, had to cycle through nine different starting lineups before finding one that works...all while winning 13 of their final 15 games. Utah Tech - UTAH TECH - briefly led the standings and closed the season with an insane 2OT loss to UVU on Senior Day.

The WAC has typically had fairly calm conference tournaments, and all of these teams will be extremely familiar with one another, but I have a feeling the final 'true' WAC Tournament should deliver something notable, weird, and/or notably weird.

Best pick for March Madness: Utah Valley is a very scary potential matchup on the 12 or 13 lines for whoever gets them. Their top 10 comps at Torvik went 5-5 in the Round of 64, including 2007-08 Western Kentucky (Sweet Sixteen). They force a lot of turnovers, get a lot of second-chance points, have outstanding rim protection, and don't allow many threes. That being said, I'd have no problem with Cal Baptist doing it, either. They're +10.7 on the boards per 100 and run a wonky defense that's nearly top-50 in the country.

The winner is… The NEVER MADE THE TOURNAMENT CLUB, because they lose a member here: Cal Baptist takes down Utah Valley in an instant classic of a final that ends at about 3 AM ET.

Watchability rating: This is perhaps the least-watchable of the better mid-major leagues for me: no offense, no threes, tons of turnovers, and a lack of athletes. 3/10, and that may be charitable.

Ivy League

Championship game: March 15 (Sunday) on ESPN2, 12 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 15th of 31
  • Favorites: Yale (37.8%)
  • Darkhorses: Cornell (29.7%), Penn (16.4%), Harvard (16%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Yale
    • Non-conference: Yale
    • Conference: Yale
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2017-present (when Ivy began playing a tournament): 1.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 7 possible), 2012-present: 3

My advice to younger people is generally the same regardless of field, social situation, or life situation: bending to peer pressure is often unwise. This can apply to literally anything and is vague enough to sound smart, so it seems to work. The Ivy League should have never, ever bent to peer pressure. It should have continued rewarding regular season excellence. If need be, it could have the Tiebreaker Game, which was more special than 99% of conference tournaments in history and always delivered.

Instead of Yale proceeding directly to the 12 line after winning the Ivy League by a game over rival Harvard, they will be forced to play a true road game at Cornell to kick off the 2026 Ivy League Tournament. Yale has easily been the best team in this league the entire way, deserves the autobid, and has but a 38% chance of receiving it because of the Ivy's insane four-team format that routinely ends up with the 1 seed having to play a true road game to win the title.

This is the opposite of protecting your best teams. Cornell just beat Yale at home 10 days ago. Why, for any reason, should this game exist? Well, for one, money. The famously deprived Ivy League, which has never had money in its life, needed more money. Harvard and Penn are also here, a pair of teams Yale went 3-1 against while Cornell went 1-3. Even if this were at a true neutral site (Yale's odds would rise to about 47%, by the way), it would still be inessential. I'm pre-annoyed!

Best pick for March Madness: I think you'll realize it's Yale by several miles. A deeply stupid format. In the event it's not Yale, the least-bad remaining option is probably Harvard, who had the second-best results against Q1-Q3 sides this year.

The winner is… Boy, thank God this garbage exists. An all-upset tournament led to Cornell winning over Penn.

Watchability rating: It's a 0/10 morally, but objectively speaking all of these games should be close and entertaining in fairly unique setups. 7/10.

Atlantic 10

Championship game: March 15 (Sunday) on CBS, 1 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 7th of 31
  • Favorites: Saint Louis (36.3%)
  • Darkhorses: VCU (27.3%), Dayton (12.6%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Saint Louis
    • Non-conference: Saint Louis
    • Conference: Saint Louis
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 3.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 7

Of all the options on Selection Sunday, no conference tournament actually feels as Selection Sunday as the Atlantic 10 does to me. This is probably some amount of personal bias due to mid-major enjoyment, but I think only the SEC has shared Selection Sunday as a tournament final as long (or longer) than the A-10. (Reply to this in our Discord if you're old enough to remember the Sun Belt playing its final on Selection Sunday or when the Big Ten had the weird year they played a full week before the show.)

This year's headliner is obviously Saint Louis, who is probably still locked into the field of 68 but has seemingly made it their mission to make that questionable down the stretch by losing three of six. I'd advise SLU to at least win a game in this tournament to feel alright, though with the work of the rest of the bubble they're probably fine anyway. VCU was swept by SLU, but the loss on February 20 is their only blemish since January 10. They've gone from an afterthought to probably >50% to make the field, even without real help from other bubble teams.

It depends on if you count VCU as a bid stealer, because I'd argue they're probably in anyway barring an embarrassing quarterfinals loss. Let's say for the moment that you don't count them as one. As such, the league has produced some fascinating alternates in the ~36% shot of a stolen bid. Saint Joe's has been the league's best non-SLU/VCU team since New Year's, complete with a top-25 defense. The best non-SLU/VCU team against Tournament-level competition was Dayton, who went 10-8 against the top-150 and had a top-25 defense. I continue to think George Washington is much better than their record shows. Davidson is a top-100 team since February began. I think we're going to get a good one.

Best pick for March Madness: I would ride for both Saint Louis and VCU as capable of winning a game, as each is a top-40 team in my shot volume-adjusted ratings. If forced to pick a third...let me hit you with George Washington. No team has had worse KenPom luck this year, as their underlying metrics are suggestive of a 22-9 team, not a 17-14 one. They're really tough to stop on the boards, get a ton of high-quality twos, and did defeat South Florida on a neutral this year, along with pushing Florida for some amount of time.

The winner is… Alright, this simulation didn't go as I'd hoped, with Saint Louis defeating Davidson (!) in the final on Sunday. I'm openly rooting for SLU to lose in the semis and VCU to lose in the final to whoever (probably Dayton) to get this league to three bids.

Watchability rating: I'll ride or die for this year's Atlantic 10, which is going to produce three bids and you're going to deal with it. Deal with it! 8/10.

SEC

Championship game: March 15 (Sunday) on ESPN, 1 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 1st of 31
  • Favorites: Florida (48.6%)
  • Darkhorses: Alabama (14.1%), Arkansas (12.6%), Vanderbilt (10%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Florida
    • Non-conference: Vanderbilt
    • Conference: Florida
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.3
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 12 possible), 2012-present: 6

Well, time for this again. The SEC Tournament does typically deliver some intriguing results, even if the last few finals have been duds. As I write, I'm scanning the list of previous Tournaments, and...I guess the COVID-era Alabama/LSU game of 2021 is the last good one? And before that, Kentucky/Tennessee in 2018. Anyway! The semifinals are usually very good, and SEC Friday almost always has one wire-to-wire banger that reminds you why you watch.

Florida is easily the league's best team this season and the only one I have any confidence in claiming "could win the national title." However, the Gators did lose a couple of random ones to Mizzou and Auburn, and a cross-year comparison could be made to 2012-13 Florida, a dominant team in SEC play that ran up fantastic metrics but lost the SEC Tournament to Marshall Henderson.

If it's not Florida, it's probably any of Arkansas, Alabama, Vanderbilt, or even Tennessee, four flawed 4/5 seeds that all have one or two outstanding players but one or two disqualifying questions that could give you results anywhere from the Final Four to the Round of 64. The problem: none of them beat Florida, and the best performance any of them gave was Vandy's home loss to UF two months ago. If anyone, I would be intrigued by Arkansas or Alabama simply because they avoid Florida until Sunday, but all that does is delay death a day longer.

Best pick for March Madness: Well, Florida. But of the non-Florida teams, the team that consistently has the best comps using Torvik's tools and...sigh, does rate out as the best team at full strength this year is Tennessee. Of the four best non-UF teams, they're the only one to have multiple Final Four teams amongst their 10 most similar squads (2009-10 Michigan State and 2012-13 Syracuse). In games with Nate Ament available (aka, all but the last two), they rate 12th at Torvik, and even without him they just trade a spot with Vandy to be 13th. Florida is the clear leader in physicality in the league, but Tennessee is sixth in my weighted shot volume tool nationally and, using Erik Haslam's schedule-adjusted numbers, only puts up fewer extra shots among all Power Five teams than Houston and Iowa State.

Alternately, if you would like to not sign yourself up for an infuriating one or two weeks of your life and value your mental health, Vandy's pretty fun.

The winner is… Kinda boring: Florida over Alabama in the championship game, probably to secure a 1 seed. Interestingly, Ole Miss made a run to the quarterfinals, defeating Texas and Georgia in the process. I imagine that would knock Texas out firmly, which is indeed very funny as a result.

Watchability rating: 9/10. I can't give it the full 10, but trust me: the SEC is extremely watchable, even if half the league is openly slop.

American

Championship game: March 15 (Sunday) on ESPN, 3:15 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 10th of 31
  • Favorites: South Florida (37.7%), Tulsa (31.4%)
  • Darkhorses: Wichita State (13.7%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Tulsa
    • Non-conference: Tulsa
    • Conference: South Florida
  • Average seed of winner, 2014-present: 1.7
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 11 possible), 2012-present: 4

I promise that at one time - 2019 - this was a really good league. Not the case now! This is firmly a one-bid league, and it is what it is. Also, sorry if you're an AAC superfan, but you guys have to move this game. Please play it on, like, Friday. We don't need to hold up the Selection Show any longer. Tulsa and South Florida are the only teams you need to know. Exactly two times in this league's history (2016 and 2024) has someone come from beyond the top three seeds to get it done, so perhaps you should know about Wichita State, who...oh God, did defeat beat USF and Tulsa at least once this year.

Best pick for March Madness: I'm trying very hard to ignore the existence of Wichita, who could steal a bid in a thoroughly unsatisfying way for everyone but Wichita fans. I would rather have South Florida in the eventual field than Tulsa, as USF's done a much better job at generating second-chance points and forcing turnovers, but Tulsa probably has the cooler story and has a very fun offense to watch.

The winner is… Well, no surprises, I guess? South Florida defeated Tulsa and the only notable thing that happened was Tulane winning two games in a row.

Watchability rating: This is either the most 6 or 7/10 league out of all time. Fine, people: 6.7/10.

Big Ten

Championship game: March 15 (Sunday) on CBS, 3:30 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 3rd of 31
  • Favorites: Michigan (47.3%)
  • Darkhorses: Illinois (23.7%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Michigan
    • Non-conference: Michigan
    • Conference: Penn State. Just kiddin'. Michigan
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.5
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 8

The Big Ten has settled into a fun trend as of late: roughly every 2-3 editions, the tournament itself produces a wacky champion like 2022 Iowa, 2018 Michigan, 2017 Michigan, and so on. The caveat isn't that these are bad teams, but they're usually not 1 or 2 seeds. Also, in four of the last five BTTs and five of the last seven, the 5 seed has made the conference title game. Early congrats to Wisconsin.

More interestingly, the 1 seed in this league is 2-for-9 in even making the league's title game since 2015. This creates an intriguing storyline and a real push-and-pull, because Michigan has been the clear best team in the Big Ten and the co-best team in the nation for four months. What's more inevitable: Yaxel Lendeborg and an inarguable top-two roster, or history?

If you like history, you should pick Wisconsin and Michigan State to be the title game. It would be Wisconsin's third straight run to the Sunday final, and the 3 seed has made four of the last seven finals. For such a normal, supposedly boring league, they consistently create weird conference tournaments. Do you know who the President was the last time this league had a 1 vs. 2 final? Buddy, it was GEORGE W. BUSH. 2007! Expect the unexpected, and in this league, the unexpected would be a Michigan/Nebraska title game.

Best pick for March Madness: Well, it's Michigan. If you're like "thanks, Captain Obvious," sorry. I guess I'll use this time as an opportunity to discuss a team I like more than I should, which is Iowa. Do you want a full list of the Big Ten teams with positive turnover and rebounding margins against top-100 opponents this year? Well, it's Purdue...and Iowa. Against these teams, they play like the 23rd-best team in America. I'm aware they haven't pulled off a super signature win, but last year's 'surprise' Sweet Sixteen team, Arkansas, was 2-9 against the KenPom Top 25 prior to defeating Kansas and St. John's back-to-back. Iowa's currently 2-8.

The winner is… I guess this counts as a mild surprise: Michigan does win the Big Ten Tournament...over Purdue. Also, USC went on a little run, knocking out Wisconsin in the third round.

Watchability rating: Look, I like Big Ten basketball. A lot. This was probably the most purely watchable product the league has put out since...God, who knows. 2011-2014? I LOVED that era of the Big Ten. I think this at least reasonably close. 10/10, sue me.