Another week and the room for error for both the WCC and MWC to get multiple teams in gets narrower and narrower. At large bids will be hard to come by for mid-major conferences. The lack of elite mid-majors (Gonzaga is the only top 25 non-power conference team and the Zags and Saint Mary's are the lone mid-major conference members in KenPom's top 40 teams) is exacerbated by the increased parity of their league opponents.

This round-up we take a look at two dangerous teams out of the top couple lines of their conference's analytical rankings and a perennial tournament team that is in a strange spot with their rotation.

Colorado State’s offense is breaking college basketball

When Nico Medved left for Minnesota, the Rams hired within, elevating associate head coach Ali Farkhmanesh to head coach. The 37-year-old coach was just 15 years removed from his dagger three-point shot in the NCAA tournament that helped lead Northern Iowa’s upset over the top overall seed, Kansas. 

It’s fitting that the three-point specialist, now a head coach, is at the helm of the number one three-point shooting team in the country. Colorado State is shooting half of their shots from deep so far this season and averaging a Division I-best of 45.4% on those attempts. Their leading three-point shooters, junior guard sBrandon Rechsteiner and Josh Pascarelli, combine for 13.3 attempts per game and shoot 45.8% from beyond the arc.

Farkhmanesh’s staff has tilted the game to maximize Colorado State’s shooting while minimizing their defensive shortcomings (233rd in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage). The Rams pair their highly efficient three-point shooting with the 361st pace of play in the country and limit opponents to the 58th lowest offensive rebounding rate in the country. That combination leads to Colorado State’s opponents having the fewest total rebounds in college basketball.

Further pushing their offense ahead of opponent opportunities, sophomore forward and multi-level scorer Kyle Jorgensen and frontcourt mate Carey Booth have proven to be two of the better free throw shooting bigs in the country. The two average about 8.5 free throw attempts per game and shoot a combined 84.7% from the line.

At 8-2 so far this season and a NET ranking of 53, the Rams will likely need to win the autobid to make the NCAA tournament, but their style of play makes them a dangerous team in a single elimination contest and a real threat in the Mountain West Conference’s tournament.

Seattle Redhawks are a two-way, mid-major nightmare

When arriving at their new conference, Seattle’s head coach Chris Victor prioritized offense and size to try and compete in the WCC. Victor’s teams have largely been defensive-minded in their approach, finishing in the top 100 in KenPom in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in all four seasons he’s been on Capitol Hill, but he was going to need to match the firepower of a league full of length and high-paced offense.

The retooling so far has worked. Seattle ranks 10th in the country in effective field goal percentage and sixth in the country in three-point percentage, with rates of 59.9% and 41%, respectively. With a 7-2 record and a win over their lone power conference opponent, Stanford, the Redhawks look to be a team in between the top four teams in the WCC and the rest of the conference, with the ability to leapfrog a San Francisco team still trying to find their footing.

Their success has come from the development of their interior scoring. The Redhawks have gone from 35.6% in the paint and 56.5% at the rim to 49.5% and 72.1%, with sophomore Will Heimbrodt leading the charge, scoring 10.3 of his 16.4 points per game in the paint. He’s shooting 80.6% at the rim and has demonstrated the ability to playmake, averaging 2.6 assists per contest.

But the defense hasn’t left despite the added emphasis on the offensive end for Seattle. Heimbrodt’s offensive stats are impressive but perhaps secondary to his absurd 3 blocks and 1.7 steals per game. The 6-foot-7 forward ranks in the 99th and 98th percentiles of the sport in those categories, with his block rate of 10.4% placing him 34th in the country.

The leading scorer for the team, however, is senior Brayden Maldonado, returning for his second year under Victor. Maldonado is 20 for 40 from three-point range while averaging 17.7 points, 2.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game. Maldonado, alongside returning senior Maleek Arington, is a part of a perimeter defense that has allowed the 79th fewest made threes in the country and the 28th fewest assists allowed as well.

Victor’s team has demonstrated a level of discipline in the non-conference that will make them a dangerous threat in the WCC, particularly to the handful of teams currently sitting at the top in analytics. They are not only efficient in their offense, but they also avoid taking bad shots and blocking by opponents (45th in the country in opponent blocks per game). They win the turnover margin by 3.7 opponent turnovers per contest.

It should not come as a surprise if Seattle finishes in the top four in the conference or if they take a game or two from the likes of Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara and San Francisco.

San Diego State is still looking for cohesion

Injuries no doubt play a part in San Diego State’s non-conference stumbles and 1-2 record in Quad 1 and 2 opportunities in their first 8 games this season. But Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs biggest concerns haven’t been how Reese Dixon-Waters looks coming off of a foot injury or Magoon Gwath’s rehab on his knee, but instead who actually fits within their rotation.

The Aztecs are playing 11 guys for 11 minutes or more so far this season. The team’s bench accounts for 45.6% of their minutes, seventh highest in the country and significantly higher than any previous Aztecs team since Dutcher took over. Most notably, there’s seemingly a timeshare at the point guard position split three ways.

Senior Sean Newman, sophomore Taj DeGourville and freshman Elzie Harrington share ball handling duties so far this season. Harrington has started the last three games for San Diego State but has averaged 17.6 minutes. Newman and DeGourville both average under 20 minutes per game so far this season. 

The three-way split has contributed to a San Diego State team with the highest turnover rate in Dutcher’s nine seasons as head coach. Each guard has their own strengths and shortcomings. Harrington has the highest ceiling but hasn’t been able to generate offense for others consistently so far. DeGourville can generate offense but is the weakest of the three on the defensive end. Newman can create for others but is overly hesitant to take shots of his own.

The impact of playing this many guys on this even of a minute total isn’t just offensive ups and downs; your team defense also takes a hit due to communication and fluctuating assignments. Despite the high turnover creation we’re accustomed to from the Aztecs, this is the first season under Dutcher that opponents are over 50% in effective field goal shooting and the 35.6% opponent three-point percentage is also a tenure worst.

As great as depth is, the Aztecs need to know who they can lean on before the gauntlet of Mountain West Conference play begins.

Games to watch

  • Santa Clara vs. Arizona State, Saturday, December 13th, 4 pm ET (TNT)
  • San Francisco at Saint Louis, Saturday, December 13th, 5 pm ET (ESPN+)
  • Gonzaga vs. UCLA, Saturday, December 13th, 11:30 pm ET (ESPN)
  • Saint Mary’s vs. Boise State, Sunday, December 14th, 4 pm ET (Livestream)