We’re into the third week of conference play and the Mountain West and West Coast conferences have been nearly as “chalky” as could be. Boise State and Seattle are the victims of tough preliminary schedules, but 8 of the top 10 NET teams in the two leagues sit at or near the top of their leagues.

The losses by Boise State came on the road, but also provided opportunities for the Broncos to gain resumé-padding wins for the committee. Seattle’s outlook this season has been more program-building in a new home and taking the perennial favorites, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, deep in their back-to-back road games is as close to a moral victory as you can get as a quality mid-major program. This week, we’re examining the components of teams that are either likely to be in the tournament as an at-large selection or fighting for a bolstered bubble heading into the heart of conference play.

Dillan Shaw is the next great Gael

Saint Mary’s isn’t as much on the bubble as they are looking to secure the best seeding possible, as they continue their dominance over the general field of the WCC. The Gaels have been pushed multiple times early on, but their disciplined style of play and ensemble of gritty players staved off scares against both Seattle at home and LMU on the road.

With a handful of impressive performers in larger roles, the most enticing appears to be the impact that freshman Dillan Shaw can have on a basketball game in a multitude of ways. Following the Gaels’ loss to Boise State in mid-December, Shaw has been a starter, playing over 30 minutes per game. Through the first four games of WCC play, he leads the conference in effective field goal percentage, offensive rating and is 7th in lowest turnover rate.

Shaw is a solid two-way piece for Randy Bennett’s team, providing length and switchability to pair alongside Paulius Murauskus and help shore up the physical limitations of the backcourt. He holds a defensive rating of 93.5 on the season and a steal per game.

The young wing originally served a 3-and-D role to start the season, but has become increasingly a dependable decision-maker in the offense, providing adept decision-making for a freshman in his expanded minutes. Headed into conference play, Shaw averaged 0.9 assists per contest and was asked to mostly finish plays. In WCC play, he’s averaging 2.8 assists per game and just 0.5 turnovers.

Since Mikey Lewis’ dip in efficiency, it’s been Shaw that has taken on more of an offensive load for Saint Mary’s, leading them in three-point attempts and alternating third option duties with point guard Joshua Dent behind Murauskus and Lewis, who has shifted more to attacking off the bounce and inside the arc. The role Shaw is playing is the largest for a freshman in Moraga since Aidan Mahaney’s first season.

Santa Clara looking to get back in the conversation

The Broncos are the next ones out from the next ones out… from the next ones out currently. Their bubble odds need a carbonator to bring some air pockets back to life for this season, but Santa Clara has proven the ability to steal a game from the top of the conference and Thursday night provides yet another possibility for Herb Sendek’s team to take down Gonzaga.

The Broncos have split their regular season matchups with the Zags each of the last two seasons. And last season, Sendek’s team went into The Kennel and scorched the Bulldogs from outside, making 18 threes in a 103-99 victory. A win against the Zags won’t likely be enough; they’d need to likely split their series with Saint Mary’s as well to even start getting into the outside of the conversation for at-large consideration. 

It’s not beyond the realm of possibility for Santa Clara to get this done. The scoring tandem of Elijah Mahi and Christian Hammond can win you games you’re not supposed to win. The tandem is averaging 32.8 points in conference play on 54.6% shooting from the field and serving as chief facilitators with a combined 6.8 assists per contest.

Hammond is looking for his shot from deep, where, prior to a conference play shooting slump, he led the team in attempts with a 44% shooting percentage. Sitting at 28.6% behind the arc in league play, the Broncos will need him to pose a threat from outside to have a real shot at pulling up an upset in Spokane.

KenPom predicts Gonzaga with a 15-point edge, but the Zags have made things harder than they’ve needed to be in a handful of these early conference games. Santa Clara needs that trend to continue.

San Diego State won’t go away without a fight

San Diego State might have a .500 record in Quad 1 and 2 games. They may still be searching for their first win against a top-50 KenPom team. However, the Aztecs will not make it easy for the committee to exclude them from the tournament should they continue playing like this and winning games.

Brian Dutcher’s team kept their tournament hopes alive with a harrowing three-overtime battle against Boise State on Saturday at Viejas Arena. The Aztecs benefited from their depth and perimeter shooting from Reese Dixon-Waters and BJ Davis, who combined for 6 for 11 shooting from outside. Davis has become San Diego State’s most crucial player despite not starting a single game this season and not becoming an integral part of the rotation until conference play.

Davis provides some patented Aztec grit that they’ve been lacking for the most part this season. Opponents’ 49% effective field goal percentage is the highest average a Dutcher team has given up in his head coaching career. To compound that defensive regression, they’re giving up the highest rebounding rate for opposing offenses in his career as well.

The 6-foot-2 guard was massive on the glass against Boise State, securing 11 rebounds in his 40 minutes on the floor. Davis and teammate Miles Byrd are third and second in steal rate, respectively, in Mountain West league play. If the Aztecs can figure out how to limit second-chance opportunities and play more cohesive team defense, they could round into the form that many thought they’d be headed into the season.

Contests to Watch

  • San Francisco at LMU, Thursday, 11 pm ET, 8 pm PT, ESPN+
  • Santa Clara at Gonzaga, Thursday, 11:30 pm ET, 8:30 pm PT, ESPN2
  • Utah State at Boise State, Saturday, 9 pm ET/6 pm PT, CBSSN
  • Saint Mary’s at San Francisco, Tuesday, 11 pm ET, 8 pm PT, ESPN2