We’re three weeks into league play and the contenders and pretenders out west could not be any more separated. The Mountain West and West Coast conferences are first and second in the country in blowout games (wins by 19 points or more). With that clearing out between tiers, we’re also seeing real paths being paved for the top teams to not only get bids but also quality seeding. Gonzaga, Utah State and Saint Mary’s all look to have favored matchups in their first tournament games. As of this week, a new team from the MWC appears to have earned a bid.

New Mexico on the right side of the bubble

After the road loss to Boise State to close out 2025, the Lobos and their season were at a turning point. They had decent wins against potential bubble teams, Santa Clara and VCU, but nothing on their resumé signified a team on the right side of the bubble, especially if they drop road games in league play. Since that loss, New Mexico has played to leave no doubt, winning the next four contests by an average of 23.8 points.

That includes the Lobos’ 87-64 win over Grand Canyon on Tuesday night at home, which included New Mexico outscoring the opponent by 18 points in the second half. In his first season in Albuquerque, Eric Olen has brought the high-level defense that he deployed with UC San Diego last season. New Mexico is holding conference opponents to 39.1% shooting from the field and 26.5% shooting from behind the three-point line.

The Lobos do an excellent job of forcing tough shots and getting opposing offenses to work late in the shot clock, often resulting in largely contested three-point attempts. They have the 26th-highest non-steal turnover rate in the country (9.4%) due to the difficulty they present for opponents in getting into the flow of their offense.

Offensively, New Mexico excels at taking care of the ball and getting its preferred looks at the rim and in the paint. Almost 40% of the team’s shots come at the rim this season, led by freshman big man Tomislav Buljan, who is scoring 9.6 points in the paint in conference play. The big man boasts an absurd 20.1% offensive rebounding and 35.2% defensive rebounding rate, making him already one of the most impactful big men in the conference.

If the Lobos take care of business against San Diego State on the road and against a better-than-expected Fresno State team, we may be talking about a team playing for seeding rather than protecting their bubble bid.

What Gonzaga needs to remain as a top 2 seed

The Zags have largely taken care of business so far this season, with their sole loss coming against a widely considered one of the best teams in the country, Michigan, on no rest and with little prep in the Players' Era Tournament. The problem for Gonzaga is that their resumé has become less stellar as their opponents begin to fade come conference play.

The Zags’ marquee win is against Alabama, which is now 18th in the AP poll after back-to-back losses last week. Their early-season power conference opponents outside of Michigan and Alabama (Creighton, Kentucky, UCLA, Oregon and Oklahoma) all look to be left out of the NCAA tournament. It makes analytics and dominating lower-level conference opponents increasingly important.

To be clear, none of the advanced stat changes are setting off fire alarms. Gonzaga is undefeated in conference play and is coming off a 12-point win over Santa Clara, likely the third-best team in the league. However, there has been a trend of the Zags not playing a complete game against teams they should put away at the very least, especially early in the second half.

Gonzaga’s steal rate has fallen since entering league play, while their offensive turnover rate has increased in their first 5 conference games. Teams have found more success getting into their offense and moving the ball against this Gonzaga team, which was initially finding success by making opponents uncomfortable. The opponents' assist-to-turnover ratio has increased since the start of league play, as has their points per possession.

What makes this Gonzaga team special is that they still possess a high-efficiency offense through the post, which has been a mainstay throughout much of their streak of tournament appearances. They also have one of the best defenses – especially on the perimeter – that Mark Few and his team have rolled out over his coaching career.

Getting that cohesion back on the defensive end while improving their care for the basketball could end any question on whether this team is a 2-seed or a 3-seed.

Gaels' offense is back

After coming back from the Bahamas, the highly efficient shooting took a bit of a dive. After shooting 40% from deep in the month of November, Randy Bennett’s team shot 28.9% from deep in December. Mikey Lewis’ torrid scoring fizzled out to close out 2025, averaging 9 points per game in the final month of the year after averaging 17.4 points in November.

However, the Gaels have a strong defense and the primary option in Paulius Marauskus to weather offensive woes, although they did lose their lone matchup against a Quad 2 opponent during that timeframe. Due to the slow pace at which Saint Mary’s likes to play, drastic dips in efficiency make the margins precariously thin.

Certainly, in their last three games and for the better part of January, the offensive numbers have begun to return to the Gaels’ favor, making them a clear tier above any league opponent outside of their rivals in Spokane. That was evident in their 14-point win over San Francisco on the road this Tuesday, an environment in which they had lost last season.

In that win, sophomore point guard Joshua Dent bullied his matchup of Ryan Beasley, scoring 19 points and recording 7 assists and 4 steals with 0 turnovers. Dent has been unbelievable for Saint Mary’s in conference play, holding a 142 offensive rating while playing over 37 minutes per game. The Aussie shot 26.7% from three in non-conference games but has been a 44% shooter from deep in league play.

Dent’s performance has helped lift the scoring burden for Lewis, who has seen improved efficiency as of late. Lewis is coming off back-to-back double-digit scoring outings after four games scoring 8 points or less. Getting both guards going at the same time would help them tremendously as they face Santa Clara on Saturday and Gonzaga on the road to close out the month.

Games to Watch

  • Utah State at Grand Canyon, Saturday, 11:30 am PT / 2:30 pm ET, FS1
  • Saint Mary’s at Santa Clara, Saturday, 4 pm PT / 7 pm ET, ESPN+
  • New Mexico at San Diego State, Saturday, 5 pm PT / 8 pm ET, CBSSN
  • Gonzaga at Seattle, Saturday, 7 pm PT / 10 pm ET, ESPN+