Hello and welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out last night's top performances and today's Watchability Index.
Saturday, January 3
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#14 Tennessee at #27 Arkansas (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN2.
This is a lighter-than-most A+ Game of the Weekend, as this is just barely two top-20 teams in the AP Poll. Still, it's the only ranked vs. ranked game this weekend and will be played in the SEC's House of Horrors, aka Bud Walton Arena. That sounds like conjecture if you didn't grow up a fan of an SEC basketball team, but if you did, please let me know how true that sentence rings for you.
Anyway, these two teams have a good bit in common despite being built very differently. They've both beaten Louisville at home, both have a win over a top-25 team on a neutral court, and both lost a "how did we lose that game" game in the 60s, though Tennessee's was obviously more inexcusable. The ways they've gotten there are very different - Arkansas is elite at turnover prevention and is running hot from 3, Tennessee has paired their usual great defense with obliterating teams on the boards - but it's 10-3 at 10-3.
As usual, though, I only really care about what you've looked like against teams with moderate-to-severe pulses. Arkansas has been fascinating: a top-15 offense shooting 61% at the rim and 36% from three against top-150 competition, averaging 14 more FTAs per 100 shot attempts, and putting up tremendous shot volume on offense. Now, the problem: all of that good stuff comes in transition, and when they're forced to play half-court basketball, things get bogged down. Arkansas's rim attempt rate drops by 10%, and they've gotten super-reliant on asking Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas to bail them out late in the clock.
Still, you can deal with that when you have elite shot-makers like Acuff and Thomas. What I can't deal with is Arkansas on the other end of the court, which has been somewhere between horrid and upsetting against opponents of note. Versus top-150 competition, the Hogs barely scrape into the top 100 of defenses nationally and are getting whooped on the boards (37.2% OREB% allowed, or 270th-best), which seems like a nightmare proposition against #1 in OREB%.
But mostly, it's about the actual half-court defense, which rates in the 36th-percentile against P&R and 42nd-percentile against post-ups. Once more: not ideal when Tennessee has Ja'Kobi Gillespie and Jaylen Carey on their team.
But...well, it's Bud Walton. Arkansas has more than enough of a path in this game. This isn't quite the Tennessee defense of old, one that's had some surprising struggles with the downhill attacks Acuff/Thomas love to make and has yet to flash the truly elite rim protection I thought they might have this year. It comes down to who exploits the others' flaws more for me, and if Bud Walton is truly as nightmarish as I always believed it was. - Will Warren
A Games
#26 Virginia at #24 NC State (-3), 11 AM ET, ESPN2.
Tough spot situationally for Virginia, with a quick turnaround from the 3OT affair at Virginia Tech. UVA’s general lack of athleticism showed in that loss, and VT isn’t an overly athletic team by any stretch without Lawal, and NC State certainly is. That said, UVA probably wins that game if Malik Thomas wasn’t mysteriously benched down the stretch of regulation, as he’s really the Cavs’ only bucket getter in the backcourt, especially noticeable without Jacari White’s shooting/spacing on the floor. It also didn’t help that the Hoos were murdered on the offensive glass again, this time by a team missing most of their frontcourt. NC State isn’t a strong offensive rebounding team at all, but that hasn’t mattered against UVA, and the Pack is a strong defensive rebounding outfit, where UVA is oddly strong offensively.
Schematically UVA is very strong in rim protection within their drop coverage thanks to the Grunloh/Onyenso duo, but NC State’s is strong in dribble creation and winning 1v1 matchups, and have torched drop coverages from Boise State, Texas, and VCU this season. Additionally, Darrion Williams is a great hub creator and big lifter (just ask Will Wade about his passing ability), which will be key as well.
NC State meanwhile has been locked in defensively since the Auburn game with less miscommunication in their 1-5 switch and some different ball screen looks thrown in to avoid Ven-Allen Lubin overexposure. Since that Auburn game on 12/3, the Pack have been the 5th most efficient defense in the country per Torvik filtering. This is a game UVA is likely to miss White quite a bit given how NC State’s switching principles and underscreening can create open jump shots. - Jordan Majewski
#20 Kentucky at #16 Alabama (-5), 12 PM ET, ESPN.
Alabama played the single-toughest non-conference schedule amongst power conference teams, only lost to teams in KenPom's top five, and have a combined 23 missed games amongst rotation players. All things considered, the Crimson Tide came out of November and December in pretty darn good condition. The same cannot be said about Kentucky, who followed up "our defense is back" talks with a horrific 1.27 points per possession effort against Bellarmine before Christmas.
With Labaron Philon returning here, Alabama will put Kentucky in endless pick-and-rolls involving the best ball screen guard duo in the country including Aden Holloway. The Wildcats were a sieve defending on-ball screens last year, but have been far more aggressive on the ball this season, and that should only be amplified as Jayden Quaintance gets reacclimated.
Something tells me Kentucky will not sag THIS far on Philon this go-around...
This is also the Mouhamed Dioubate revenge game, as the Kentucky starter and Alabama transfer was one of the best per-40 minute players in the nation last year, and yet never started a game in his two seasons for Nate Oats. Dioubate is not just the only dude on the Wildcats outside of the big men that can crash the glass, but his relentless rim pressure allows so much gravity for the team's struggling shooters. Across their six games across Top 100 teams, Kentucky is a -3 in the 83 minutes Dioubate has been on the floor, and a -36 in the 157 minutes without him.
Quaintance has played just 28 total minutes this season, but he and Dioubate are absolutely the keys here. If they can crash the glass, get Aiden Sherrell in foul trouble, and provide additional help on pick-and-rolls, the Wildcats have a real chance. But Alabama, at home, at full strength, is going to be one heck of a beast to tame. Either way, I'm rooting for a Dioubate 20-point double-double. - Matthew Winick
#23 North Carolina at #40 SMU (-1), 2:15 PM ET, The CW.
The biggest story in every UNC game this year is whether the opponent can handle the Heels’ suffocating drop coverage, fueled by an immense and mobile frontcourt that forces constant difficult jumpers. UNC ranks #2 in average height nationally and #3 in average 2PA distance allowed, numbers that prop up the country’s #2 2P% defense.
Fortunately for the hosts, SMU has a trio of midrange killers in Boopie Miller, Jaron Pierre and BJ Edwards, all of whom can play on the ball. That’s a very comfortable area for the Ponies:
The Mustangs rank in the 84th percentile in midrange frequency and the 90th percentile in efficiency, per CBB Analytics. Both Miller and Pierre shoot over 46% from that range.
Secondarily, UNC opponents have to figure out some plan to deal with all-world freshman Caleb Wilson. Physical and skilled, Wilson can easily generate offense for himself in the post or off the bounce, and you cannot throw smaller defenders at him because he is so active on the offensive glass. He is plenty savvy enough to cook double-teams with his passing, as well. SMU is extremely undersized at the 4 with feisty Corey Washington, but Jaden Toombs may have to play extended minutes in this one to match UNC’s immense size.
Speaking of which – the Estonia vs. Turkey war at center will be a blast to watch. UNC’s Henri Veesaar has become a star in Chapel Hill, racking up double-doubles and showing expanded range on his jumper. That could help pull 7-2 Mustang big man Samet Yigitoglu away from the bucket, giving Wilson more room to operate.
Both teams have routes to points here, but it is so difficult to get early shots against UNC’s long-limbed shell. I’d expect a narrow Heel victory in a relatively efficient game. - Jim Root
#56 Akron (-3) at #107 Miami (OH), 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
A GAME! FOLKS!!!! This is trending towards being for the MAC crown, and I promise that's meaningful in the year 2026. Akron has a thrilling offense that's put up an opponent-adjusted 1.261 PPP against top-150 competition, while Miami (OH) is STILL UNDEFEATED and, in terms of Wins Above Bubble, absolutely should be ranked in the AP Poll if they can win this game.
This is also elevated a tier by simple watchability. Both of these defenses have gigantic flaws and will struggle significantly to slow down the other's strengths, while both offenses will be more than happy to experience all the open space they'll get. Akron can and should score a ton in this game against a putrid Miami interior defense, who is almost required to double in the post because they currently rate out as an 8th-percentile defense in true post-up coverage. Even if they force a post pass-out, it too often results in someone driving to the rim from a spot-up or cutting from the perimeter, which, again, Akron is going to be thrilled by.
The problem is as follows. Against top-200 competition - roughly half their games - Akron has allowed some utterly heinous numbers on defense. Let's lay them out: 290th in defensive efficiency, 60.1% 2PT%, 38.5% 3PT%, a 36.7% OREB% allowed, and, brutally, 67% allowed at the rim. I'm giving grace on the threes because those are variance-driven and are also the product of a really tough group of shooting offenses Akron has drawn, but this is a defense that, much like Miami, is legally required to double in the post and has been the rare team to actually be worse in half-court defense than in transition. A matchup between a 100th-percentile P&R offense and a defense that's currently in the 19th-percentile in covering the ball handler is...yuck.
What drives like that usually lead to is either a 1-on-1 opportunity Miami is ~60% likely to finish (we'll be conservative here) for two points, or, alternately, a 1-on-2 opportunity that creates a 4-on-3 possession after for a kickout three that Miami is ~40% likely to make. They're both 1.2 points a shot, and neither is a good outcome for the Zips.
Point guard Evan Ipsaro's injury looms large for Miami, but they're deep, dangerous, and can still win without him. Akron looks like a machine, but maybe there's room for two MAC machines. - Will Warren
#33 UCLA at #18 Iowa (-6), 6 PM ET, Peacock.
Mick Cronin finally recognized Donovan Dent and this offense he assembled is much better without being micromanaged in the halfcourt and the Bruins have strung together their three highest transition rates of the season (and perhaps of Cronin’s coaching career) in this 3 game winning streak, albeit against inferior opponents and defenses that are very much conducive to allowing high transition rates. Of course the bitter irony is that UCLA now faces the ultimate transition denial defense in Ben McCollum’s Iowa Hawkeyes, who are allowing just a 3rd percentile transition rate nationally.
Bennett Stirtz has been bothered by aggressive hedging from Michigan State and Iowa State (McCollum countered against the Clones by using Stirtz more heavily off the ball than usual, but with little positive effect), and their physicality in general, both of which are normally hallmarks of a Cronin defense. However Dent on the ball and basically the entirety of the frontcourt has been so poor in PNR coverage that Cronin went zone for a prolonged three game stretch (UCLA didn’t zone UCR, Cal Poly, or Arizona State however). Iowa should be able to dictate the terms of this game in the halfcourt and manipulate with their ball screen offense, while UCLA will need to keep hitting threes at a near 40% clip over Iowa’s heavy gap help and pressure. - Jordan Majewski
B Games
#28 Villanova (-1) at #47 Butler, 12 PM ET, TNT.
Butler was not projected to be an NCAA Tournament team this season, but it has put together a resume of at least consideration to this point. To keep those hopes alive, though, the Bulldogs must do something they have struggled with lately: defend Hinkle Fieldhouse. Butler is just 14-17 in home conference games over the second Thad Matta era, and this matchup with Villanova marks the first leg of back-to-back Quadrant 1 home games to begin 2026.
If the Bulldogs fall at home to Villanova, the pressure really ramps for hosting St. John’s on Jan. 6 next. After this two-game homestand, Butler’s only other projected Q1 home game left on the schedule is against a program it has never beaten: UConn on Feb. 11.
For Butler to beat Villanova, it might start with asserting tempo. Villanova has only faced two offenses (BYU and Michigan) with a faster average possession length than Butler this season and it lost both of those games. The Bulldogs are not nearly on the level of the Wolverines or Cougars, but pace still shouldn’t be disregarded entirely. Villanova has played at a 60.8 possessions-per-40 minutes pace across its seven best performances this season, per Hoop Explorer, compared to a 68.7 Poss/40 over its six worst performances.
On the other end, can Villanova take advantage of Butler’s recent lapses in 3-point coverage? The Bulldogs’ defense still ranks 28th in 3PA/FGA allowed and 104th in 3P% allowed for the season but has averaged surrendering 11.3 3s on 38.2% efficiency through three league games. Villanova is one of only eight teams to rank top-50 in 3PA/FGA and 3P% this season.
The matchup also features a couple of fun notes. For one, Butler’s Michael Ajayi leads the country in rebounds per game but might not be the best rebounder on the floor; Villanova’s Duke Brennan is one of only eight players ranking top-35 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. Additionally, Butler’s Jamie Kaiser will be facing his old head coach; Kaiser played under Kevin Willard as a freshman at Maryland in 2023-24. - Lukas Harkins
#34 Auburn at #25 Georgia (-5), 1 PM ET, SEC Network.
There are two teams in the country with more than 77 dunks this season. North Carolina has 92, led by monster freshman Caleb Wilson, who has more than half of them. And Georgia has 103. That's 36 more dunks than third place, or the same gap between third and 82nd. Or the same gap between 97th and last. Georgia is very athletic, folks. Having a Jalen Duren clone in Somto Cyril, and legendary NBA dunker Dominique Wilkins' son Jake certainly helps!
That said, while the Bulldogs have proven they are the most athletic team in the country, they have not necessarily proven that they are a serious NCAA Tournament contender, despite going 12-1. Georgia is 12-0 against sub-100 KenPom offenses, and 0-1 against teams in the top 100, a overtime loss against Clemson on a neutral site.
The bad news for Georgia is the big bad SEC currently has zero sub-100 offenses. And the Bulldogs' quest to prove they can beat a competent opponent begins against the No. 3 offensive unit in the league with Auburn. The Tigers play a ton of iso ball with stars Keyshawn Hall and Tahaad Pettiford, and that very well could be the antidote to a Georgia defense hellbent on causing havoc and forcing turnovers so they can showcase their world-class dunking skills.
If Auburn is able to control the ball and slow down Georgia, it could be the start of the ninth consecutive sub-.500 SEC campaign in Athens. But hey, maybe things are different this year? A win Saturday would go a long way towards that quest. - Matthew Winick
#10 BYU (-8) at #76 Kansas State, 1:30 PM ET, CBS.
Remove all games against teams outside of the 300s and this is secretly #15 at #64, which is a little different than what KenPom's base ratings may imply. Kansas State has a lot going against it, namely that they're well outshooting their means on offense and are openly very bad on defense, but this is the Octagon, this is Underdog Jerome Tang (31-23 ATS at KSU, 9-3 ATS/8-4 SU at home), and this is BYU's first true road game of the season. You never know.
Then again, maybe we do. At Hoop-Explorer, Kansas State's transition offense rates as a top-10 unit in America. The half-court O: 88th nationally. Against top-150 teams this has been a drop-off from 1.385 PPP in transition to under 1 PPP in half-court, as the turnover rate doubles and KSU becomes way too dependent on the PJ Haggerty Dear God PLEASE Bail Us Out offense. Their lone shot here is, weirdly enough, in an 80+ possession game where BYU is bleeding second chances and gives up long rebounds.
This might actually be pretty plausible. In that same top-150 sample, BYU goes from allowing the single lowest transition rate in the sport on defense to merely the 78th-lowest. Here's why: BYU goes from a +13.1 rebound margin per 100 to just +2.6 and can't control the pace nearly as well. It's odd to think of given who we're talking about, but BYU wants this played in the 70s. Short of BYU shooting 21% from 3 or something, it feels like Kansas State wants this played north of 90. As a watchability obsessive, I hope for the latter. - Will Warren
#17 Kansas (-2) at #45 UCF, 2 PM ET, Peacock.
On a Saturday slate that is absolutely loaded with "is this team actually good?" games, UCF's 11-1 start may be at the very top of the fraud watch list. UCF hasn't played a power conference team in five weeks, haven't played a top 50 team since Nov. 14, and split their two notable games against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M with a net-zero margin despite shooting a nuclear 23/44 from deep.
The Knights are winning by making threes and grabbing second chances. Kansas is No. 2 in 3-point defense (a number that will regress, but I digress), and are one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country. The Jayhawks should also have Darryn Peterson healthy for this game, something they've only been able to say four times all season. A reminder to all those who forgot because of recency bias: the kid is special. And Bill Self built this roster specifically to fit his needs as a player.
Listen, hats off to Johnny Dawkins if he can knock off the big, bad, full-strength Jayhawks with his makeshift team of transfers that is certainly overperforming my wildest expectations this season. But let's just say it would top my list of surprises on Saturday if the Knights can get the job done. - Matthew Winick
#30 Baylor at #55 TCU (-1), 2 PM ET, TNT.
The Christmas decor was ripped down and the holiday cheer vaporized out of college basketball when one of college basketball’s nice guys, Scott Drew, became an existential threat by adding NBA trade asset and former second-round pick James Nnaji to Baylor’s roster for the second half of the season.
Drew spoke to the media on Friday and confirmed that Nnaji will play on Saturday afternoon with limited minutes, as he gets into midseason shape. The 7-footer does provide some interior scoring at the rim and in post-ups that the Bears don’t currently have on their roster. Of the 173 shots made by Baylor at the rim this season, their three frontcourt pieces account for a little over a third of them.
TCU is one of the better defensive units at forcing opponents to try and score further from the basket. They rank 43rd in the country in KenPom’s new “average two-point attempt distance” category, countering Baylor’s transition offense that gets guards lanes to the rim.
The Horned Frogs are yet another team looking to cement their bona fides as a quality team by starting with a marquee win to kick off conference play. They are on a five-game winning streak against four Quad 4 teams and one Quad 3 team, but they also have wins over Florida and Wisconsin from late November. In both of those matchups, they won the turnover battle, forcing 19 and 17 errors by their opponents.
The problem with that is how effective Baylor’s offense has been this season at avoiding turnovers. They rank in the 94th percentile in turnover rate against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams this season. TCU is also one of the most transition offense-dependent teams in the country, with nearly 23.2% of their points against Quad 1 and 2 teams coming in the fast break.
Starting Baylor point guard Obi Agbim missed Monday’s game due to illness, but the ball moves so freely for that Bears backcourt that they are not wholly dependent on one main offensive initiator. Whoever gets out in transition will likely take this one. - Tuck Clarry
#37 LSU at #50 Texas A&M (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPNU.
With legitimate questions about the quality of their opponents, LSU enters conference play with a 12-1 record and a ranking of 35th in the NET, as well as ninth in the country in offensive efficiency, scoring 1.28 points per possession so far this season. The highly efficient offense has thrived on transfer guard Dedan Thomas Jr.'s ability to operate efficiently in the paint.
Thomas leads the team both in scoring and assists, averaging 16.2 and 7.1 per contest. So when the news came out on Friday that Thomas is doubtful for this game, the excitement for this matchup took a pretty substantial hit. Already hampered by the loss of big man Jalen Reed for the season, McMahon’s team now will likely ask freshman guard Jalen Reece to assume Thomas’ 30 minutes per contest, with questions on who will play backup point guard minutes behind him.
The Aggies are not an ideal team to roll out your freshman back-up point guard to starter minutes. Guards Jacari Lane and Rylan Griffin make life difficult on their opponents, helping lead a defense that is ranked 24th in the country for opponent turnover rate. Considering the road environment, the lack of experience against quality opponents and the lack of depth for the Tigers going up against a team that plays 9-10 guys, temper your expectations for the team from Baton Rouge. - Tuck Clarry
#4 Purdue (-8) at #42 Wisconsin, 8 PM ET, FOX.
I’m sure the veteran Boilers haven’t forgotten what Wisconsin did at Mackey last season, scoring 94 points on 1.44 PPP, a Painter era worst defensive performance by Purdue. Wisconsin went 20-22 on 2PT attempts and scored 58 points in the 2H. This year’s Wisconsin offense is significantly worse and has struggled mightily against similar help heavy, rim denial defenses like Purdue, who is significantly improved defensively this year with TKR no longer defending out of position. The Boilers as a result are allowing just 1.09 PPP at the rim compared to an ungodly 1.34 PPP last season. The most noticeable improvement in Purdue’s defense of late however has been against the dribble, where they’ve typically been attacked relentlessly. Nevertheless, against Boyd and Blackwell, this is the area to watch for Purdue defensively- but it won’t matter unless Winter and Rapp start hitting their jump shots against Purdue’s overhelp.
While Wisconsin’s rim wall has been effective in rim denial, that hardly matters against Purdue’s set heavy and PNR dominant offense- and dropping against Braden Smith is simply begging for destruction. Wisconsin can limit Purdue on the offensive glass with their size and strong defensive rebounding (11th nationally in defensive rebounding rate), and they are undefeated at Kohl (although their only two quality wins at home have been quickly devalued), but Purdue’s offense should hum. - Jordan Majewski
#13 Florida (-6) at #64 Missouri, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
Color me concerned about my alma mater, which has consistently gotten smashed on the defensive glass during Dennis Gates’ tenure. In fact, Gates’ scheme – a mish-mash of pressure-y man and zone looks that rarely actually settles into a cohesive unit – is always awful in that area:
Ignore this year’s ranking – that’s propped up by a cupcake schedule. Kansas grabbed 39% of its misses, while Illinois gobbled up a ridiculous 56%. Enter Florida, the country’s best offensive rebounding team with a giant, physical frontcourt. Ruh-roh.
Oh, and Mizzou won at Florida last year…so I think Todd Golden, Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and the rest of the Gators are eager to deliver a punishing blow to the downtrodden Tigers.
Missouri currently sits 64th in KenPom, but that may actually overrate them. The Tigers have been abysmal against quality competition (lost by 20 to Kansas, by 43 to Illinois), and an angry Gators squad seems likely to add to that misery (pun intended, how about that).
Last year, the Tigers delivered a massive uppercut to start the game in Gainesville (got out to a 42-23 lead thanks to scalding shooting) and hung on for dear life in the second half. They lack the offensive upside to make such a statement early, and the Gators’ physicality will grind the Tigers tall-but-thin frontcourt into dust as the game unfolds (see: Illinois game).
Notably, the Tigers do get some personnel boosts, as Jayden Stone is slated to return from injury and Trent Pierce should finally make his season debut. Both players add shooting skill to a lineup that is alarmingly reliant on sieve defender Jacob Crews for perimeter pop, but both players also have their own defensive flaws. - Jim Root
#52 Boise State at #51 San Diego State (-4), 10 PM ET, CBSSN.
Possibly the best mid-major defense of 2025-26 travels to play possibly the best mid-major defensive program out there. It's been a very strange year for both. Boise State started out in the worst way imaginable by losing to D2 Hawaii Pacific but has recovered admirably to work on an at-large bid, while SDSU's defense has come in under expectation but the offense shooting 39.5% from deep out of nowhere has saved the Aztecs from a complete spiral.
It's worth noting that post-Michigan demolition at Players Era, SDSU has played like a legitimate top-50 team nationally and is forcing a ton of turnovers, which might be a problem for a Boise team who routinely loses the turnover battle and has a pretty weak backcourt to begin with. Then again, a SDSU team with bad shot selection (fork found in kitchen) going up against one of the most well-structured defenses in America could be really ugly.
Basically this reminds me of every other Boise/SDSU battle over the last five years, which has usually been low-scoring and has surprisingly tilted Boise's way (7-3 in the last 10 matchups) post-COVID. This is in part because Boise's won the battle of the boards in seven of those ten games, and honestly, I trust their frontcourt more than San Diego State's right now, a thing I didn't anticipate saying this year. These are two teams happy to feed their bigs against two defenses very good at post denial. Which rock wins out in the battle of rock versus rock? - Will Warren
C Games
#62 Virginia Tech at #61 Wake Forest (-4), 12 PM ET, ACC Network.
The Hokies hit the road for just the second time this season (first was a miracle OT win at South Carolina), and on the heels of a 3OT win over a rival, while also remaining shorthanded without Tobi Lawal and Tyler Johnson. VT, who owns one of the highest ball screen rates in the country, will also face a 180 in terms of ball screen coverage from Virginia to Wake, who is far more aggressive with their pressure and high hedging. Wake is allowing just a 25th percentile ball screen, .52 PPP (99th percentile), and an astounding 44% turnover rate in ball screen defense. Obviously the game plan is to take the ball out of Neo Avdalas’ hands, but Wake has been torched by teams with multiple creators and especially short roll creators, which the Hokies have both with Ben Hammond playing out of his mind recently and Amani Hansberry a skilled passer in this offense, respectively. Additionally, Christian Gurdak was an absolute animal on the glass and at the rim against Virginia, really stepping up in Lawal’s wake.
That said, Wake has been most vulnerable against teams who combined quick ball movement and spacing, as their overloaded defensive scheme has allowed for a 97th percentile catch and shoot rate. This is not how VT’s offense is structured however, producing just a 6th percentile catch and shoot rate and a 95th percentile off the dribble rate, where Wake allows offense in just the 3rd percentile with their dribble denial defense.
Offensively Wake is exceptionally average in almost every regard, but VT against a top 50 defense on the road that is schematically a difficult matchup for their ball screen heavy offense is perhaps my most salient point here. - Jordan Majewski
#44 VCU (-6) at #124 Duquesne, 12 PM ET, USA Network.
A must-win for VCU's potential at-large case, as they've built the metrics but not necessarily the resume. Selfishly, I also want them to win so SLU/VCU on Wednesday can be the supernova game it'll be billed as.
There's a good chance this game will have a lot of whistles in it. Duquesne has posted the 298th-best defensive FT Rate against the 263rd-best offensive schedule, which is seriously concerning when paired with a VCU team that loves to control the game in transition, get downhill, and oh yeah, gets to the free throw line a ton. Duquesne badly wants to go fast too, but I'm not sure they can go speed-for-speed with the Rams, and they certainly can't get into a rebounding war with them. Better hope this is the game Duquesne's numerous deep-ball attempts go in. - Will Warren
#79 Providence at #19 St. John's (-12), 12 PM ET, FOX.
As it stands, this is a potential Kim English's Last Stand game. There are other top-40 wins on the schedule if they do happen - they play UConn and Villanova in the next 11 days, after all - but this would stop the bleeding in such a sudden and stunning way that almost all complaining about his tenure would stop for a couple weeks.
Contrary to what one would normally expect, Providence should be able to score here. Jason Edwards and Jaylin Sellers are brilliant at attacking the rim from 20+ feet out, and Stefan Vaaks has been exceptional in transition and from deep. It's the putrid Providence defense that gives me pause.
Basically, can a team that might have the worst (or least-involved, at minimum) frontcourt in the Big East keep an elite group of rebounders and wings off the scoreboard? The Friars' drop coverage can force a lot of midrange twos when it works, but for the most part it's been bludgeoned by good shooters and better posts. This feels like a potentially massive game for Zuby Ejiofor, as I'd be a little surprised to not see him breeze to 20+ points. - Will Warren
#60 Oklahoma State at #21 Texas Tech (-11), 1 PM ET, ESPN2.
Oklahoma State is a superb individual scoring team, led by absurd scorer Anthony Roy, not to be outdone by Vyctorious Miller, Jaylen Curry, and Kanye Clary. They are in the top 10th% nationally in pick-and-roll ball handler, isolation, and dribble jumper efficiency.
Those numbers should all frighten Texas Tech, who is one of the most individualistic drop coverages in the country, allowing extremely high pick-and-roll rates and the 12th-lowest assist rate in the country. Essentially, Texas Tech forces opponents to play as single entities rather than a whole team, and that's kind of the perfect description of what Oklahoma State is, even if it's against head coach Steve Lutz's preference.
Of course, all of the x's and o's may not mean anything here, because Texas Tech has the two best player in this game by far in Christian Anderson and JT Toppin. Only top 20 offenses have been able to take down the Red Raiders this season, and the Cowboys are all the way down at 62. Even an Anthony Roy 40-piece (which is within reason) may not mean enough. But if you like individual scoring, this is the game that should be on your Saturday afternoon screen. - Matthew Winick
#12 Houston (-7) at #63 Cincinnati, 2 PM ET, FOX.
Kelvin Sampson’s ownership of Cincinnati has now reached a dozen, as Houston has beaten the Bearcats in 12 straight meetings dating back to 2020. Cincy has battled recently, though, and their elite defensive rebounding (5th nationally in D-Reb rate) could be a critical neutralizer against the Cougars.
KenPom recently added the “average 2PA distance” category to his team pages, and it highlights what everyone has known about Houston’s offense: good lord, is it midrange-heavy. Houston ranks 361st in that statistic, indicating the Cougars’ severe reliance on jumpers. They need second chances to score efficiently, but Cincy has Baba Miller – the nation’s best defensive rebounder, by rate – and Moustapha Thiam cleaning things up on the boards. Crucially, Houston is expected to get Kalifa Sakho back from a three-game absence – though not a star, Sakho is a high-effort big who gobbles up offensive boards.
The perimeter battle has more intrigue with Jizzle James playing well since his reinstatement. He and Day Day Thomas must deal with the ferocious perimeter trio of Milos Uzan, Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp, all of whom are excellent defenders. Cincinnati’s leaky decision-making and shaky shooting will make it very difficult to score against Houston’s length, athleticism and overall maniacal tenacity. - Jim Root
#57 Ole Miss at #53 Oklahoma (-5), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
I can't figure out the scenario in which I would want to watch this game, flip over to this game, or keep up with this game. Unfortunately, I am the guy who coordinates these watchlists, so I put it on here. Ole Miss games are becoming pretty simple: can they get a defensive rebound with any consistency? If not, forget about it. Four of their five losses have featured the opponent getting back at least 33% of their missed shots, and offensive shot volume is maybe Oklahoma's single best feature as a team.
The problem for OU is their atrocious defense, which can make any offense look good and just surrendered 1.13 PPP to Mississippi Valley State. Oklahoma is super vulnerable to any team with A) guards that can get to the paint and B) guards that can shoot. Ole Miss can have this if it's a good AJ Storr game, and Ilias Kamardine will certainly try his best. In the coaching battle of Moser vs. Beard there's also a clear preference here. - Will Warren
#163 Mercer at #127 ETSU (-5), 4 PM ET, ESPN+.
Midrange Mercer travels northeast to play a chaotic ETSU team with some of the most up-and-down performances I can recall. For instance: how many teams have defeated top-200 South Alabama by 26 in the middle of four losses, two of which were by 17+? Can't be that many.
The SoCon is perhaps as guard-heavy a conference as you'll find, but ETSU is one of the rare teams in it happy to play through the posts. I love small-ish center Cam Morris III, currently posting a 122 ORtg on 25% USG while also having a top-60 Block% in the nation:
If Morris is cooking in post-ups here, that's bad news for a Mercer team with thoroughly mediocre rim protection. The other side of the ball may be worse, as the Bears have brutal shot selection for a Ryan Ridder side and have gotten demolished on the boards by good teams. Their hope here is for an ETSU defense that can be far too aggressive for its own good on the perimeter to get caught napping on short rolls, which could lead to 4-on-3s and potential kickout threes that Mercer has hit against worse teams, just not better ones. - Will Warren
#116 Rhode Island at #90 George Mason (-7), 4 PM ET, USA Network.
George Mason turned the ball over ZERO times against La Salle Wednesday, which while perhaps telling of La Salle’s defense, is still an unbelievable feat. This is particularly noteworthy however considering Rhody has the 8th highest defensive turnover rate in the country, per KenPom data. The Rams really need those turnovers to generate offense, as they’re a 36th percentile halfcourt offense in terms of efficiency, 88th percentile in transition. This could be a bloodbath in the extras in favor of the Patriots, as GMU owns the 5th highest free throw rate in the country and Rhody’s ball pressure lends itself to a massive foul rate, plus they’re extremely poor on the defensive glass. - Jordan Majewski
#162 Northern Colorado at #198 Montana (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN+.
Rematch of last year’s Big Sky championship, where neither defense could stop the opposing offense. What’s interesting about that is that both offenses are so drive and kick dependent (UNC 85th percentile, Montana 99th percentile, per hoop-explorer play data) and both defenses are so strict in their drop principles, which theoretically should limit those kick outs, but both offenses just finished at the rim with ease. Both rim defenses continue to struggle this season, as neither have true rim protecting bigs, but UNC is more efficient this year in dribble and ball screen offense vs drop coverage with Quinn Denker
while Money Williams has struggled mightily as a ball screen creator (1.0 PPP vs .71 PPP respectively). - Jordan Majewski
#98 Wyoming at #75 New Mexico (-7), 8 PM ET, CBSSN.
If you're not into football nor the excellent women's slate going on this Saturday, you could do far worse than turning on a game between two eminently watchable teams that play intense and intensely unique styles of basketball. Plus, thanks to the rising tide that is Mountain West play lifting all boats, these are two top-100 teams that could finish anywhere from 3rd to 9th in MWC play without altering their KenPom ranking one bit.
Wyoming's path to being in business is reliant on owning the boards and this being a game where their highly up-and-down shooting has a good day. Under Sundance Wicks, the Cowboys are 18-7 when shooting 33% or better from deep...and 2-16 when going beneath that mark, including 0-3 this year. They're very good at getting to the rim but a lack of great athleticism has led to their rim attempt rate dropping from 47% against sub-200 teams to 39% against the top-200 while doubling their midrange rate. As such, this is a huge game for guys like Leland Walker and Nasir Meyer.
New Mexico, meanwhile, has two odd effects to play with in this game. Their super-deep defense is forcing the third-highest 3PT attempt rate in basketball and the fifth-lowest rim attempt rate, which makes their games wide open to variance. More importantly, the huge turnover margin Eric Olen teams can run up has disappeared against top-150 competition, actually turning into a negative turnover margin.
If shot selection alone can win a game (not to mention Wyoming's huge foul issues on D), UNM could motor away. If not, and Wyoming hits some jumpers, it could be a pretty big swing result for the middle tier of the MWC. - Will Warren
#85 Hawaii at #95 UC San Diego (-1), 10 PM ET, ESPN+.
How about these Rainbow Warriors? Hawaii currently has the No. 16 defense in KenPom, buoyed by the nation's No. 3 effective field goal percentage and the single-best defensive rebounding rate in the country. Does it matter that they've only played two games off the always-menacing home island, have squared off against the second-easiest schedule nationally, and avoided Jackson Shelstad in their near-win against Oregon? Well, if it means and NCAA Tournament berth, I suppose not.
The biggest obstacle standing in Hawaii's way for a March Madness bid is UC San Diego, the only other Big West team in the KenPom Top 100 right now. The Tritons haven't missed a beat since losing head coach Eric Olen to New Mexico, as new lead man Clint Allard and a fascinating blend of positionless players have the team rolling.
The Hawaii strict drop coverage has the chance to be a major problem for UC San Diego and their constant moving and passing. They boast just a 2nd% dribble jumper rate, but Hawaii's ball screen coverage forces opponents into absurdly high dribble scoring rates. Against the stricted drop they've played this year, UC San Diego scored a season-worst 0.95 points per possession against Loyola Marymount. The antidote to this coverage for the Tritons is pick-and-pop threes, but their forwads went 1-for-7 from deep in that one.
Also notable is the revenge game for UC San Diego guard Tom Beattie, who spent two seasons at Hawaii, but who's offensive rating is 18.8 points higher than it ever was with the Rainbow Warriors. His elite assist-to-turnover ratio and familiarity with Hawaii's scheme could end up being the difference in this one. - Matthew Winick
Sunday, January 4
A Game
#43 Creighton at #48 Seton Hall (-3), 12 PM ET, Peacock.
Is Creighton back? The Bluejays are on a four-game winning streak, including a 3-0 start to Big East play. They hold a 62.5% effective field goal rate and are shooting a blistering 42% from deep on 92 attempts. Almost 49% of their attempts have come from behind the arc.
The Bluejays will look to keep up that scoring against the most havoc-causing defenses in the country this season, Shaheen Holloway’s Seton Hall. The Pirates have the third-highest steal rate and the highest block rate in the country this season, holding their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.1%.
The Pirates run an aggressive no-middle defense that speeds opponents up and funnels the offense’s passing lanes to the sidelines. This defensive philosophy also makes rotational switching simpler for the defense to follow, affording less daunting closeouts on three-point shooters and ultimately rendering the shot attempt more difficult.
This game will be a fun battle of schemes and a great test to see how Creighton’s offense, predicated on ball movement, handles this kind of challenge. Taking care of the ball isn’t the only concern for the Bluejays, as they also can ill afford to get dominated on the glass in this one. The Pirates are one of the more disciplined rebounding teams in the country and rank in the top three for both offensive and defensive rebounding rates within the Big East so far. - Tuck Clarry
B Games
#108 UAB at #83 South Florida (-6), 1 PM ET, ESPNU.
Thanks to a scheduling quirk, South Florida is the last team to begin AAC play, which means they draw a pissed-off UAB after the Blazers took a nasty home loss to Wichita State despite leading by 16 at one point of the game. I bring this up because UAB's 31-15-1 ATS and 37-10 SU after a loss, which is one of Andy Kennedy's best features as a coach. Appropriate for a team elite at rebounding.
These offenses are very different in their approach, but the actual results are pretty similar: a lot of downhill drives, a ton of offensive rebounds, lots of free throws, and not much in the way of plus shooting. This is the most we'll have seen USF tested in true post-ups in a long while, as UAB is probably only outpaced by North Texas in the AAC in terms of playing through their bigs. If UAB figures out that their best version is the one playing through KyeRon Lindsay-Martin, they can win this. Then again, if South Florida notices the huge advantage they'll have on the wing and in transition, it could be a wonderful entry to AAC play for the Bulls. - Will Warren
#49 Washington at #29 Indiana (-6), 8 PM ET, Big Ten Network.
Indiana’s defensive personnel individually isn’t high level, especially at the rim, but they’re extremely disciplined in their drop coverage and are actually allowing the lowest high quality shot rate in the country (and subsequently highest low quality shot rate) per Synergy shot quality data. Essentially everything is a midrange, off the dribble jump shot against the Hoosiers scheme, which has been particularly more effective in Assembly Hall. Washington however tends to peddle in the midrange, and this could be a particularly choice matchup for Hannes Steinbach, as IU tends to island the post (with wing drop downs), and they have yet to face a dominant big man this season. 6’7 Siena freshman post Francis Folefac actually just posted a career game against the Hoosiers before the break, so I shudder to think what Steinbach could do here.
Offensively it will be interesting to see how IU occupies the double big Washington defense with Kepnang and Steinbach that Sprinkle used heavily against Utah to great effect. IU has been best against two to the ball style defenses where they can pinball the basketball around the perimeter for open catch and shoots, and not so great against clogged lane defenses that jam up their cutting and screening. IU tends to also run a lot of iso actions for Tucker DeVries, and Washington doesn’t really have anyone who can defend him (although his tough shot attempts can take IU out of their offense when they’re not falling). Honestly it’s not the worst matchup for Washington’s overall mediocre offense, and the double big defensive look could be an issue for the Hoosiers, but IU’s spacing could also quickly exploit that personnel at home. - Jordan Majewski
C Games
#125 Sam Houston State at #146 Middle Tennessee (-2), 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
As usual, "team playing at Murphy Center" must come with the caveat of the Murphy Center's absurd ability to make you shoot horribly from deep. SHSU has several paths to scoring and is very good at offensive rebounding, which should help here, but in a game where a lot of things feel equal, it comes down to play on the wing for me.
So, it becomes simple: can SHSU's Po'Boigh King hit threes (21-51 on the year)? What about MTSU's Kamari Lands (19-57) and Alec Oglesby (19-36)? I think the guards and bigs here largely cancel one another out, strange to say, which means you're looking at each team's third options or deeper to provide the difference. That or the arena itself. - Will Warren
#121 Southern Illinois at #68 Belmont (-9), 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
Southern Illinois really only scores consistently in transition, dribble penetration, and rim dives off help against that dribble penetration. Belmont is the polar opposite, utilizing their spacing and elite perimeter shooting to establish an 87th percentile catch and shoot rate with a 97th percentile efficiency rating, and rarely creating offense off the dribble or via the ball screen. I’ve noted this ahead of essentially every Belmont game, that while 42% from 3 isn’t going to last, there simply isn’t a ton of meat on the regression bone because of their 3rd percentile low quality shot rating (per Synergy data- conversely SIU owns a 95th percentile rating in that regard).
Belmont’s defensive structure has completely changed this season with heavier double big lineups, which in turn means a 51st percentile rim rate allowed has been shaved down to a 1st percentile rim rate and the 9th farthest 2PT shot proximity rating per KenPom. That’s not particularly ideal for SIU’s already brutalist offense, who scored 78 points at the rim in a tight series sweep by the Bruins last year. SIU’s help heavy defense allows a 70th percentile catch and shoot rate, with a 67th percentile uncontested rate- also not ideal against Belmont. - Jordan Majewski
#122 Bradley at #96 Murray State (-7), 5 PM ET, ESPN2.
This is wide-open, run-and-gun Murray versus keep-it-in-your-pants Bradley. Styles clashes almost always lead to entertaining games, and this should have it in spades. Murray State has played one of the most extreme versions of drop coverage in the sport:
Which has led to them surrendering the single lowest three-point attempt rate in America, but also the 10th-highest attempt rate at the rim and, strangely, serious issues with defensive rebounding. Not much confidence Bradley can solve the latter, but this level of drop coverage may be ideal for Bradley's offense, which has been excellent when the ball is in Jaquan Johnson's hands and less-excellent when in anyone else's. The thing holding me back from an outright "Bradley is winning this" feel is a fine-but-not-special frontcourt defense and the lack of a great pick-and-pop option to beat this mega-drop. - Will Warren
#111 Seattle at #32 Saint Mary's (-12), 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
The WCC schedulers likely didn’t receive a Christmas card from the Seattle University athletic department, considering the first two weeks of their conference schedule. The Redhawks took a tough loss to San Francisco to start their conference season, and a week later, they get the privilege of playing the perennial top two teams in the league, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, on the road over the course of three days.
If playing the Gaels in Moraga, where they haven’t lost a conference game since 2021, wasn’t enough of a challenge, Chris Victor’s team is also coming off a crushing overtime defeat against the Zags, where Seattle’s two main guys played 37 and 41 minutes. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s is coming off their second straight 20-point win, both coming against the two winless teams in the conference.
This will be a defensive tug-of-war, with Saint Mary’s and Seattle ranked 36th and 37th, respectively, in opponent points per possession. Both teams have eerily similar offensive and defensive shooting splits, making Saint Mary’s rebounding rate and Seattle’s turnover creation the two factors that could tip the balance of this game one way or the other.
If Seattle's Will Hembroidt can slow down Paulius Marauskus on offense–far easier said than done–there are major questions right now about who can replace his scoring. Lead scoring guard Mikey Lewis’ efficiency and scoring has fallen off of a cliff since the team returned from their MTE in the Bahamas back in November. Lewis is shooting 30.7% from the field and 20% from three in conference play after shooting 46.4% overall and 51.1% from deep in the month of November. The Redhawks lead the conference in opponent effective field goal percentage. - Tuck Clarry
